by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
In reality, though, voting trend in Bihar is being influenced not so much by increasing atrocities on minorities but an opposition more consolidated than in the May 2014 Lok Sabha poll. It was after all Bhagawat himself who had made the first move on the caste debate now sweeping across Bihar, by saying that there should be public discussion to see whether the fruits of reservations have reached those for whom reservations were meant to be. Even if it is a fair suggestion, it was badly timed or twisted by BJP's rivals, as Bihar's politics has been driven since the 1990's by nothing but caste equations and caste-based quotas in jobs and educational institutions. Bhagawat's statement brought new momentum to Lalu Yadav's campaign. Though Bhagawat showered praises on Dr Ambedkar sending a clear signal that the RSS supported the reservations and upliftment of the down-trodden.
Another unwise move by NDA was to skip the mention of its chief ministerial candidate. It thought the Bihar election would sail smoothly on Modi's charisma alone, as it did in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. But the party should have taken lessons from Delhi and realised that elections are but a snapshot of emotions which can alter at the snap of a finger. It is a mystery still as to why the BJP high command brought in an outsider Kiran Bedi instead of reposing faith in time-tested Dr Harsh Wardhan. Under Harsh Wardhan, Delhi BJP secured 32 seats while AAP was contained to 28 seats in 2013 Assembly polls. Similarly, it is a mystery why NDA did not name Sushil Modi as the CM candidate that it would support. Apart from having been the state's deputy chief minister for long years, he is regarded as an able administrator and his projection could give credibility to the BJP promise that it would improve governance in Bihar. Keeping the issue of leadership open, NDA has invited unwholesome speculation on some unexpected front. Such speculation has detrimental effect. BJP has also been too harsh on Lalu and has too frequently harped on his vulnerable point, the fodder scam. It has certainly led to consolidation of Yadav votes on a large scale. All this, combined with traditional Muslim apathy to BJP, has got NDA paint itself into a corner. Though Modi's Man-Friday Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asserted in Patna that the next three phases belong to the BJP.
But the BJP should remember that there is life after Bihar and, if at all it loses the poll, the defeat will still have valuable lessons to learn. It can help Modi encounter less headwind in the next three-and-a-half years. What he badly needs is a party that can keep its ideas on social and religious issues to itself, and its voices under control. A defeat in Bihar should have a shock effect powerful enough to silence its professional peddlers of hate. Modi is essentially a man of action and his to-do list bursting with items that range from sorting out the issues between government and the judiciary to finding state governments on his side on a variety of legislations including the Goods and Services Tax. His party must give him respite from unnecessary anxiety so that his 2014 victory looks purposeful and not just a fluke.
But the BJP should remember that there is life after Bihar and, if at all it loses the poll, the defeat will still have valuable lessons to learn.
I think it is necessary to say a word here about the growing obsession in the “Parivar” about going public with its ideas on Hidutva. They should silently work as they were doing all these years. Historically, these saffron leaders neither sought nor commanded significant public attention but the 2014 victory of Modi has almost overnight put them in the prime time media. For these newly arrived politicians, so overpowering is the greed to be in limelight that they have a thing to say on anything, no matter how batty it is. A failure in Bihar may goad Modi, and Bhagawat, to get their big-mouths to stay quiet.
With Bihar assembly poll halfway through, it is agreed that the Narendra Modi-led NDA has not played all its cards right, though it is nobody's case that the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav coalition holds all the aces. As of today, 162 of the 243 constituencies are waiting to go to poll, beginning from tomorrow, and punters can always gamble on which will prevail on the voters' mind—the suspicion that a conspiracy is afoot in Delhi to torpedo the caste-based reservation of jobs and college admissions, which is the bedrock of Bihar's politics for the last three decades; or a return of Lalu Prasad Yadav's "jungle raj", a term coined by none other Nitish Kumar, his current alliance partner and the mahagutbandhan's (mega-coalition) chief ministerial candidate.
The outcome of the election is still shrouded in autumn mist, but BJP is queasy. After some of its leaders indulged in competitive hate speech, they suddenly buckled. Home Minister Rajnath Singh became custodian of secular values, pulling up, without naming, the likes of his party's assorted motor-mouths, from Ministers V K Singh, Mahesh Sharma down to Sakshi Maharaj and even Sadhvi Prachi. It seems the party has begun thinking that instances of communal conflagration at Dadri or Faridabad, despite being far away from Bihar, are impacting on its development agenda, promises of opportunities for the youth, and everything that Modi stands for. There are frenetic efforts now to either downplay the communal flashpoints or give them a new spin. So, as Sahitya Akademi-award winning authors began returning their awards in large numbers, the Joint Action Group of Nationalist Minded Artists and Thinkers (JANMAT) which is closely associated with the BJP, got suddenly busy dousing the fire. Prime Minister Office's call to award-winning Urdu poet Munnawar Ali, after his impassioned statement in a TV channel, was the beginning. Peace efforts in the background went several steps further, all in a wink, when the Akademi, in a seeming show of solidarity, adopted a resolution drawing attention of the government at the Centre and the states to atrocities on the minorities, and intolerance of free speech leading to liquidation of rationalists and non-conformists thinkers. The resolution, in the same breath, spoke of taking back the returned awards, however odd the proposition may sound. RSS chief Mohan Bhagawat was at his avuncular best when, at his Vijaya Dashami speech, he implored people not to attach "too much importance" to one "small event".
In reality, though, voting trend in Bihar is being influenced not so much by increasing atrocities on minorities but an opposition more consolidated than in the May 2014 Lok Sabha poll. It was after all Bhagawat himself who had made the first move on the caste debate now sweeping across Bihar, by saying that there should be public discussion to see whether the fruits of reservations have reached those for whom reservations were meant to be. Even if it is a fair suggestion, it was badly timed or twisted by BJP's rivals, as Bihar's politics has been driven since the 1990's by nothing but caste equations and caste-based quotas in jobs and educational institutions. Bhagawat's statement brought new momentum to Lalu Yadav's campaign. Though Bhagawat showered praises on Dr Ambedkar sending a clear signal that the RSS supported the reservations and upliftment of the down-trodden.
Another unwise move by NDA was to skip the mention of its chief ministerial candidate. It thought the Bihar election would sail smoothly on Modi's charisma alone, as it did in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. But the party should have taken lessons from Delhi and realised that elections are but a snapshot of emotions which can alter at the snap of a finger. It is a mystery still as to why the BJP high command brought in an outsider Kiran Bedi instead of reposing faith in time-tested Dr Harsh Wardhan. Under Harsh Wardhan, Delhi BJP secured 32 seats while AAP was contained to 28 seats in 2013 Assembly polls. Similarly, it is a mystery why NDA did not name Sushil Modi as the CM candidate that it would support. Apart from having been the state's deputy chief minister for long years, he is regarded as an able administrator and his projection could give credibility to the BJP promise that it would improve governance in Bihar. Keeping the issue of leadership open, NDA has invited unwholesome speculation on some unexpected front. Such speculation has detrimental effect. BJP has also been too harsh on Lalu and has too frequently harped on his vulnerable point, the fodder scam. It has certainly led to consolidation of Yadav votes on a large scale. All this, combined with traditional Muslim apathy to BJP, has got NDA paint itself into a corner. Though Modi's Man-Friday Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asserted in Patna that the next three phases belong to the BJP.
But the BJP should remember that there is life after Bihar and, if at all it loses the poll, the defeat will still have valuable lessons to learn. It can help Modi encounter less headwind in the next three-and-a-half years. What he badly needs is a party that can keep its ideas on social and religious issues to itself, and its voices under control. A defeat in Bihar should have a shock effect powerful enough to silence its professional peddlers of hate. Modi is essentially a man of action and his to-do list bursting with items that range from sorting out the issues between government and the judiciary to finding state governments on his side on a variety of legislations including the Goods and Services Tax. His party must give him respite from unnecessary anxiety so that his 2014 victory looks purposeful and not just a fluke.
But the BJP should remember that there is life after Bihar and, if at all it loses the poll, the defeat will still have valuable lessons to learn.
I think it is necessary to say a word here about the growing obsession in the “Parivar” about going public with its ideas on Hidutva. They should silently work as they were doing all these years. Historically, these saffron leaders neither sought nor commanded significant public attention but the 2014 victory of Modi has almost overnight put them in the prime time media. For these newly arrived politicians, so overpowering is the greed to be in limelight that they have a thing to say on anything, no matter how batty it is. A failure in Bihar may goad Modi, and Bhagawat, to get their big-mouths to stay quiet.
