by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Indian politicians are obsessed with thinking of politics as a mere game of numbers- not one of parties gaining support, or losing it, due to the correctness, or otherwise, and how they're seen to be influencing people cutting across regional or caste lines. An alliance at the top, politicians love to believe, is spontaneously translated to addition of numbers at the bottom. It is not smart thinking as, with the spread of literacy, awareness and satellite television, voters and even lower-rung party workers are getting increasingly prone to draw their own road-maps. Instead, our politicians still talk of merger and alliance as India has remained fixed in the 70's, when the concept of a "front" or large alliance forged at the top and going down to the bottom gained currency for the first time.
Of course those who began their political career in the turbulent 70's, like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, will still swear by the mahajot or grand alliance of castes and tribes and religions. But the outcome of the recent election to the Bihar legislative council should be an eye-opener for them. Amid an electorate of local council members, BJP and its allies won 13 out of 24 seats. It should be remembered that the 'favourites' in the race for Bihar, where assembly election is due later this year, is the strong 'grand alliance' of Nitish Kumar's JD(U), the RJD of Lalu Yadav and the Congress. Citing the arithmetic of votes polled in the Lok Sabha poll last year, the "liberal intellectuals" of Lutyen's Delhi never tired from depicting the upcoming Bihar assembly poll as a sort of new tipping point where they are certain that the NDA would be routed, spelling the end of the beginning, if not the beginning of the end. Just how antediluvian the thinking is shows in the fact that the JD(U) won only five Council seats, RJD four and Congress one.
It is nobody's argument that Modi is still at the summit of his popularity in the Hindi-speaking states of north India that he swept through. If his strengths are now evident, so are his shortcomings. There is also some empirical truth in the correlation between the seats won by a party and the index of unity of its rivals, disunited opposition being relatively easy meat. But it is entirely unlikely that the Indian electorate will push into oblivion the painful memories of UPA's non-governance, just as the people of Bihar will not easily forget Lalu Yadav's notorious "jungle raj" of 15 years. In fact Nitish Kumar himself has sacrificed a good chunk of his own political equity by appearing on stage once again with Lalu, the man on whose career he drove the nail himself. And now it's he who is inviting Lalu to have a second bite at the cherry! The state's local body members have asked them to cut it out.
Following the rise in the 90's of religious bigotry and caste-based separatism- mandal-kamandal as it is known as in the popular lexicon of politics- the state assemblies became home of graft, mis-governance and intrigues. Things are no better in the states where two so-called national parties, BJP and Congress, are in power. State chief ministers ask for more power on the plea of federalism but, in reality, they became law unto themselves. And the Centre became too weak to interfere, or too engrossed in its own problems, even when daylight robbery became the order of things in the states. A classic example is the years-long Vyapam recruitment-cum-examination racket in Madhya Pradesh, in which 50 witnesses have mysteriously died but not one alarm bell was sounded from the Centre. All these years, it was presumed in Bhopal that the Centre wouldn't dare muscle its way into its turf on such a "federal" issue as law and order.
But Modi is a tough bargainer, and his regional rivals are finding their own seats wobbly. Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, a consistent critic of Modi and his policies and aided by L K Advani & Sushma Swaraj, now must have his energies focused on fending off the CBI sleuths empowered by the apex court to ask him uncomfortable questions. In West Bengal, chief minister Mamata Banerjee is caught in a situation which is not altogether different. Probing the Saradha chit-fund case, the Bureau and the Enforcement Directorate have lined up just enough evidence, and witnesses, to take the probe deeper into territories that are downright uncomfortable for Mamata. In Uttar Pradesh, battered by the below-average performance of his son and chief minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav, the SP supremo, Mulayam Singh Yadav, is now cosying up to Modi. Nowadays Mulayam often drives up to Lucknow's Raj Bhavan to hold "secret talks" with state Governor and former BJP leader Ram Naik. It may well be his 'hot line' to the Prime Minister. The same can be said about Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik who is playing ball with Modi. In return, Modi has also signaled that his party will focus more on the Hindi speaking belt for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and align with regional parties.
Therefore, what India’s regional chieftains must understand is that they have to be on the side of reform because it is a federal country and co-exist with the new centrist BJP under Modi. In the monsoon session of Parliament beginning next week, I think this realization will dawn on most regional parties who, with Congress, dominate the Rajya Sabha. The Congress may not give up even on GST even though the UPA cradled it. But the state leaders are increasingly accepting that federalism is not synonymous with anarchy, and that the Centre, rather than being the giant with clay feet that they fancied, has in fact a lot of ammunition to challenge them in their own den. Assuming that Monsoon session is a wash out due to factors outside the control of Modi, the Bihar poll will set the tone of reform agenda. The Bihar legislative council elections last week gave jolt to the new found allies of Nitish Kumar.
