Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Rahul has time on his side

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

India's grand old party, the Congress, may blow an impressive 130 candles on its birthday cake this year. But it is battered like never before by electoral reverses, defections, policy muddle, and, more importantly, a crisis of leadership. Sonia Gandhi, the present president, steered the party well as it managed, under her stewardship, to move from opposition to the treasury benches and stay there for a decade. But it is clearly end of the line for her as neither her health nor her electoral people seem ready for a last burst of fire. The Congress being an unabashedly dynastic party, when Congress Working Committee (CWC) meets Tuesday, it is likely to bring to the fore its anxiety to get Rahul Gandhi, the fifth generation dynast, as its new president. Once the party elders crown him, getting it approved by delegates of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) at its next session in March is no sweat.


However, the anxiety in the Congress camp is not about Rahul's availability— the party is his family firm after all—but about his ability to deliver. Since he assumed party office in September 2007, as chairperson of the Youth Congress, his performance has been patchy. He helped the party win unexpectedly large number of seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 elections. But, faced with the challenge of Narendra Modi five years later, he seemed quite clueless. His campaign speeches were listless and, though in his mid-Forties, he never looked comfortable on the television screen. Rahul's shortcomings seem particularly stark in the background of his party's miserable show in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, winning its lowest ever seats, 44. There are quite a few experienced leaders of the party who'd keep Rahul out of the blame game, arguing that the party was collectively responsible for its failure to connect with the masses, particularly the younger generation. But the largest responsibility still devolves to Rahul as the highest active office bearer, vice president, of the party, Sonia's role as president having become nominal much before the May 2014 election.

The party's other problem with Rahul is that nobody seems to know his mind with any degree of accuracy. His past actions show he has strong views on issues but he hasn't stuck to his position so it is possible that he speaks more for effect than out of conviction. According to a Wikileaks disclosure, he told the then US ambassador in India that there were Hindu terrorist outfits no less threatening than the Islamist terror groups and that the RSS, in its hate quotient, is little less than SIMI.

When the leaks appeared, party leaders were obviously flummoxed by an absence of convincing denial from the family. If these were his views, it was better not expressed before others as public sentiment in India will invariably be hurt by remarks that suggest any Hindu organization as "terrorist". It is something that Rahul could check with his mother as her rude epithet for Modi, maut ka saudagar, cost her party an assembly election. In Gujarat, it helped mobilize Hindu votes in favour of Modi, in a state where minority votes are only seven per cent so they do not count electorally.

Equally amateurish was Rahul's idea of carrying the movement against land acquisition to Bhatta-Parsaul, a twin village in Greater Noida, where Gujjar landowners were themselves eager to sell their land, at a good price, of course. In the ensuing assembly election, Gujjars did something unusual by voting the BSP candidate in large numbers only to ensure the Congress candidate's defeat. The incident shows how much more of the discovery of India Rahul has to make to lead the party back to power. Rahul's decision to give his first free-wheeling TV interview to a particular news channel despite professional advice was another disaster.

He also showed a deficit of values when he crashed in the midst of someone else's press conference to make an insulting remark about the then prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh. When the incident happened, in September 2013, so angry was the mood of the nation for such miseries as galloping inflation, and talks of raging corruption, that Dr. Singh became a soft touch. A year, and an election, later, Rahul's explosion against him looks more histrionic than real.

If Rahul gets full charge of the party, he'll have enough time to hone his political skills, provided the BJP under Modi does not falter anytime soon. And, wisely enough, he (and sister Priyanka), having witnessed violent deaths of their near and dear ones so early in life, are both devoted practitioner of Vipassana, a Buddhist system of meditation that promotes insight into the reality of things. Given Rahul's proneness to utter politically incorrect words, and draw up political strategies in haste, Vipassana may help him improve his quality of leadership before the next election in 2019 or the one after that, in 2024. His recent quiet visit to Myanmar was also part of this exercise.

If Rahul gets full charge, 
he'll have enough time to 
hone his political skills

Time is on his side. At any rate, the Congress party must wait for the long haul considering the destruction it suffered in the 2014 poll and the rise of BJP on the right of the spectrum and parties like AAP on the left. It may be assumed that politics towards the close of the current decade will be even more competitive.

That does not mean that political parties will change and become internally democratic. If it is AAP, it must remain Kejriwal’s party. And if it is Congress, a Gandhi should lead it. What may somewhat change is the historic identification of the Congress with leftist ideas, and the kind of secularism which Mahatma Gandhi imposed on India, which, in the opinion of many Hindus, was not even-handed. The Modi Government is gradually diluting the UPA’s socialist instruments (Food Security and NRGEA)  and still managing to win elections. Besides, the Indian electorate is clearly showing its disgust for what the BJP sneeringly calls ‘minority  appeasement’. With more affluence, and spread of mass media, the country has become less liberal, not more, than from the days of the Mahatma.

When a nation goes right, a leader can turn it leftward but it will never go more left than before. It is a lesson that escaped Sonia Gandhi. Her son may learn from her experience.

 (The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)