| To those who have a casual interest in astrology
which, I emphasize, is not a science, 2014 was a significant year. It was
marked by transition of the Saturn, supposedly the most malefic of all the
planets, from the Scorpio sign to Sagittarius. In the two-and-a-half years of
the Saturn's residence in a zodiacal sign, the remote and 'cold' planet
supposedly causes life-changing happenings of those born under the signs
immediately before and after its extant address. Astrologers give much
importance to this seven-and-a-half-years period (2.5X3), popularly known in
India as saade saati, which, it is generally believed, can be one of
'creative destruction', or just destruction, depending on their clients'
native chart.
I wish to bid goodbye here to the world of
astrology but retain the metaphor of saade saati to guess what 2015 portends
for India,
be it happy or ominous. Much of the way things pan out for the country will
surely depend on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's quality of leadership as BJP
has indeed become a one-man party and so has NDA. And, more importantly, he
is winning election after election, despite a waning wave. The 'secular'
forces are dying to give him a fight. But they're just dying. Reduced in the
Lok Sabha to a minority of characters as dissimilar as passengers booked on
Noah's Ark (Mamata's men and CPM), the opposition thought they'd counterpunch
in the Rajya Sabha where the Modi brigade is in minority. But they soon
discovered that Modi could play Gulliver and turn them Lilliputian, taking
the bills they'd stalled to the President and coming back winner with a
volley of ordinances.
The old land acquisition law that Mamata had
resisted at Singur in 2006, giving, in turn, not only herself the government
in West Bengal but bright ideas to the Congress leadership to twist the
Central law, is back almost to its original form, thanks to Modi's ordinance
onslaught. And so is the law to raise foreign stake limit in the insurance
firm, and to change the relevant clauses in the Indira Gandhi-made law to
nationalize the coal mines that'll make room for private firms—both domestic
and foreign—to run nearly 200 coal blocks. Since he is only following the
Supreme Court order, no amount of opposition by others can block the move.
Moreover, Modi will introduce all nine Ordinances in Lok Sabha first, get
them passed and send them to the Rajya Sabha. If the Opposition-controlled
Rajya Sabha does otherwise, Modi has the option to summon joint session of
Parliament to have his way. These come along with a big step towards making India a
common market by securing cabinet approval for a bill that promises a Goods
and Services Tax. And all that comes gift-wrapped with falling oil prices, a
relief that can come only in a dream.
It is a good overture to a saade saati play,
more creative than destructive. If it goes on, the Indian growth rate may
catch up with China
in the course of this year as claimed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. Who
knows ? And then Modi can don the same hat that ex-Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan
Singh did as the reformer Finance Minister post-1991. But three things must
happen for that. Oil price must stay low, FDI should rain in, and enough jobs
must be created for demand to look up.
Crude oil accounts for 70 per cent of India's
import so the importance of its cost remaining within manageable limits
cannot be overstated. But its continuance at the $ 60+ level depends on the US and Saudi
Arabia and the convergence of their geo-political
interests—be it Iran or Russia. If
oil goes back to its former Himalayan abode of $ 120, it will recoil in
subsequent election results and the party may be over. FDI, similarly,
depends more on extraneous developments than on India's internal situation. With
the economies of Europe and Japan
in utter disarray, emerging markets including China
slowing down, the US
is the only beacon fire. And its economy is doing well; it is poised to notch
up a 4 per cent growth. This success can trigger the Federal Reserve to raise
rates and the temptation to put funds in a stable market may block the flow
of US investments to risky emerging markets for a long time to come. Modi may
change the laws to make them investor friendly but little can he do if there
is no investor around. The Indian market will then be all dressed up and
nowhere to go. Finally, on the business of job creation, Modi has coined the
slogan 'Make in India'
but has not yet even tried to walk the talk. The cold fact is, labour
intensity of all jobs is declining, be that manufacturing, industry,
services, even agriculture. All this may be because of UPA's follies as
between 2005 and 2012, India
added only 15 million new jobs. The pace of job creation is even more stunted
now. So there is not much hope of the current saade saati witnessing much
improvement in the composition of India's 'common man'.
To many Indians, Modi is still the new avatar of
a mythological god who’d fix the bad guy and save the oppressed. We’ve seen,
though, that the “creative” side of the ‘Modi saade
saati’ is quite independent of him.
2015 can be the best of
time for Modi for factors on which he has little control. But there were
things he could do to ensure that the high expectation he has raised doesn’t
backfire on him if things don’t work out according to plan. And expectation
rises for words he utters like ‘Make in India’ and a Swachh Bharat
project. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh has parsed his acronym NaMo as
“No Action, Message Only”. If 2015 brings no result as planned by Modi,
Ramesh may get an audience.
Modi’s another challenge in 2015 will be to keep
Sangh Parivar on his side. The “Ghar Vapasi” program dented his image to a
large extent largely because he went into a shell. It’s a different matter
his silence resulted in the ouster of Rajeshwar Singh from the program
itself. But Praveen Togadia has returned home after several years as working
president of the VHP. Earlier, he had been banished as working president of
VHP “International”. The anti-Modi groups within the frontal
organisations of the RSS and in his own government will keep firing one
missile or the other. It will be the real test of his skill in 2015.
(The author is
National Editor,
Lokmat group)
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