In India, 'middle class' can be a dangerously deceptive term. It means several things to several people. For example, it can mean households that possess items like (a) TV, (b) computer/laptop, (c) car/scooter and (d) telephone/mobile.
But, according to figures computed from the 2011 census data, the owners of all the four assets, at 4.6 per cent, are horribly shrunken in size. If one is less picky, the figure can be stretched as far as 63.2 per cent, for that is the share of homes having either a land phone or a mobile handset. But that's cold comfort as only 4.7 per cent have an automobile. These numbers surely come as a rude shock to the dream of the great Indian middle class which we, the newspaper-reading and TV-watching city-bred Indians, have for the entire first decade of the 21st century taken as given. It was a dream that was structured with so much care, to the last decimal point, by its practised merchants. McKinsey, for example, said that the Indian middle class would hit 250 million, or 20 per cent of the population, by 2015. But, however iffy its number, the middle class at least had a voice. It found itself heard in the 2009 elections, when its members thanked the UPA for unimpeded economic growth in the past five years, and voted it enthusiastically. Little did it understand that the economy was driving to a precipice, and the rainbow ahead would disappear soon.
In the past four years, many evils have combined to batter the middle class. Stalled industrialization, high interest rate on home buying loans, infrastructure projects that have been left on the drawing board, near-zero growth of jobs in the organized sector—the maladies that have lately visited Joe Public are just too many and have come all at the same time. And topping the woes is the back-breaking inflation. Onion at 100 rupees a kg and egg at five rupees have left families stupefied. After this, where is the cash to save, to pay for kids' tuition, or to buy a family holiday? I live in a tony district of the capital where the wealthy residents belonging to trading communities begin their mad display of Diwali fireworks and crackers about a fortnight in advance. The Diwali is now just a couple of days ahead but the evenings are unusually quiet. Merriments are subdued, if not absent. The dollar, which was Rs 45 in 2010, is now upward of Rs 62. It has a cascading effect. Most visibly, it has raised petrol price to such dizzy heights that the middle class man seldom takes car out. But more sadly perhaps, it has limited the access of the middle class to modern technology and lifestyle products. No wonder that the newer models of smartphone or tablets are more window-shopped than bought, valuable imported books remain unsold on the shelves of book stores, and the paid subscription of an internationally renowned British magazine, after steadily rising for ten years, is now sloping down.
The middle class is also the thinking class. It can reason out the factors that have pushed it to the precipice. It can read that, in the long years till the 2009 global economic crisis, India frittered away the golden opportunity that it had to put the cheap capital to productive use. There could be more roads and warehouses, which could help stabilize retail prices, apart from creating employment. There could be vigorous development of skill to create a competent work force for industry—for that is the prime necessity in a country where agriculture can no more employ all its rural population, and so untrained (and unemployable) people are migrating to cities in droves, in search of illusory jobs.
Unfortunately, the opportunities were wasted and enormous amounts of money were put into the 'black hole' of welfare projects. If somebody can earn 130 rupees a day without having any skill, get almost free food, free electricity, free TV, free laptop, free education etc. But none uses free condoms distributed to control population. After 2010, when the flow of money dried up, the price of welfare became unbearably large. It reflected in a gaping fiscal gap, which, in its turn, made capital so costly that businesses found it hard to repay old loans, not to speak of opening a new line of credit. On the other hand, the showering of money on welfare projects made agricultural wages shoot up. This has resulted in today's food price inflation.
Protests against the middle class getting a raw deal is usually brushed aside with the pompous argument that India's path of growth should be equitable and inclusive. The UPA's core constituency i.e. "poor" is further nursed and consolidated by such welfare schemes. But even the poor is also craving for are education and skill and proper jobs, not a couple of free rotis alone.
The middle class is intelligent enough to read the motives behind the policy of pleasing the poor, instead of 'helping' then, at its cost. But they are not the kind to suffer in silence. In 2009, there was so much money floating around that they overlooked the fine print on the bill that the government had handed them. Now the middle class is not prepared to take another massive hit. But though it lost all hope it is unlikely to have lost its voice. So powerful it is that between 2004 and 2009, this fetched the Congress nearly 50 per cent more seats in the parliament. It was a thankful contribution of mostly 4.7% urban middle class voters. In 2014 the voice may not be so pleasant.
So powerful is this
4.7 % strong middle
class that it fetched
50% more seats to Congress
in 2009 in
Lok Sabha
Editor of the Lokmat group of
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