However, such strenuous clue-gathering exercise is overshadowed by the
elephant in the living room, which is that the BJP has no other leader of
Modi’s stature. Of course it was important for him to win the Gujarat poll for
the third consecutive term, as failure to do that would have instantly
eliminated him from the race. But, now that he has crossed the initial hurdles,
there is hardly anything that either the BJP or the “Sangh pariwar” can do to
put another man in the final lap of the race. It is double or quits.
The inevitability of Modi’s choice as principal challenger to a
Congress-led “UPA 3” lies in his capacity to rise above his party, the BJP.
Winning state elections for three consecutive terms is, by itself, not the
qualifying achievement to enter the race for leading the nation. It is not
impossible that two other BJP chief ministers, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman
Singh of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh respectively, may perform similar
hat-tricks in assembly elections in their states next year. Chauhan, like Modi,
is development-minded and Raman Singh has performed admirably on issues related
to state security, development and food. But both are obedient party workers
carrying out commands from Delhi and the RSS, holed in Nagpur. Neither of them
attracts a fraction of the love or hatred that Modi does across the
nation.
And that leads to the mystique of leadership. Among Modi’s
contemporaries in the party, its twin stalwarts, Sushma Swaraj and Arun
Jaitley, despite their impressive oratorical skills, which were recently on
display in the parliamentary debates on FDI in multi-product retail, have not
shown the killing stints. Both have national appeal, secular credential,
liberal approach. Jaitley has the edge due to his sacrifices during the
emergency and has immense rapport with Nagpur. Yet Modi looks unstoppable
within the BJP unless L K Advani refuses to vacate the place before 2014. Even
Modi himself will not sacrifice CM’s chair before May-June next year- after the
Karnataka Assembly polls as not even
Modi’s carpet-bombing cannot make BJP return to power. Secondly, incidents like
Delhi’s gang-rape and its bizarre mishandling by the Police, Home Ministry and
the UPA government will only strengthen the hands of Modi.
Till I wrote this
piece, Modi has chosen to remain silent on the issue though protests are taking
place across the country. But there is no denying the fact that people do like
his “autocratic style” of governance in a democratic set up. Amongst the Chief
Ministers of 31 states of different parties, he commands better credibility and
brags his achievements through hired PR agencies in India and abroad. There are
people across the globe who are investing in a company called “Modi Futures
Limited.” It’s a different matter that Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj
Chavan has done chosen to do things rather quietly and known for his honesty
and integrity too. Yet if Modi gets the
charge to head the national government, it is expected of him
to behave less like a politician who waffles and more like an executive-leader
of the Lee Kuan Yew kind.
The Congress too has a galaxy of competent party functionaries. However faltering might be the course of the two successive UPA governments
so far, it carries Sonia Gandhi’s unmistakable hallmark—be it in a clear
emphasis on entitlement and doling out larges to the poor rather than
creating employment. The general evasiveness on policy, probably to suit
the conflicting demands of a coalition, is another problem. It is only in the
recent months that she seems to have signalled the government to go slow on
populism, take measures to cut back on the colossal wastages in welfare
programs (the new Direct Cash Transfer policy is a result), and gather more
courage to achieve economic targets like fiscal deficit and inflation. Secondly,
Sonia has one big advantage over Modi. She enjoys unchallenged authority in her
own setup. But Modi’s authority is highly contested.
The RSS, which is BJP’s
ideological master, has mixed feelings about Modi. Mohan Bhagwat, the Sangh
supremo (sarsanghchalak), put it succinctly when he said that while
an automaker sells thousands of cars, “some are easy to drive and some prove
difficult to manage”. The easy-to-drive car is the shorthand for present party
president Nitin Gadkari, while Modi is obviously tough to manoeuvre. Party
leaders who have invested many decades of their lives in the hope of rising to
the top one day have reasons to feel that Modi’s rise will shatter their
dreams.
To ride out the opposition within his own party and NDA coalition, Modi
has to project himself more in the presidential mode—relying all the more on
satellite television and the social networking media. That will polarize the
nation even more, evoking loyalties as intense as hostilities. The dividing
line will no longer be the traditional secular Vs communal. It will lie between
a multi-polar nation and a unified state. Will BJP take the risk? A difficult
question.
(The author is National Editor of Lokmat group)
