by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group



BJP's Maharashtra Master stroke!

The BJP high command is closely watching the statements being made publicly by the three partners of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) on sharing of Lok Sabha seats. It was Sharad Pawar who initiated the discussion at a close-door meeting of the Shiv Sena, Congress & NCP and urged the partners to decide on the seat-sharing formula in earnest. But even before any ground work could be done, senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut declared that his party will contest at least 19 out of 48 seats it had won in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Obviously, other partners were upset as Shiv Sena had contested the 2019 polls in alliance with the BJP and the NDA had won 41 seats leaving four for the NCP and one to Congress. The AIMIM won one Lok Sabha seat while an Independent (Navneet Ram) walked away with Amaravati win.

Sensing that the MVA partners will find it almost impossible to resolve an amicable seat sharing formula, the BJP high command is toying with the idea of holding simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha and Assembly in May 2024 itself. The state BJP leadership has also conveyed to the high command that this move will put the MVA on the mat and shatter unity among them on sharing of Assembly seats.  The Assembly polls are due in October 2024 and advancing it by six months may give BJP a quantum jump. The Karnataka win has boosted the morale of the Congress in Maharashtra and its leaders will not back down. The BJP leadership, on the other hand, is planning to take full advantage of the lifeline given to the NDA government by the Supreme Court. The BJP is sending out signals to MVA leaders to join the BJP.

Yogi, Delhi Gulf raising eyebrows

The Karnataka Assembly polls have further widening the gulf between the UP Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath and some of the ruling party functionaries. Yogi being BJP's star campaigner was to address 35 rallies and roadshows during the short campaign period and indicated two sets of dates to the central party office, May 3-4 and May 7-10, for campaigning. While PM Modi was a super star campaigner with 19 rallies and 14 events, Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed 23 rallies etc followed by Assam CM Hemant Biswa Sarma with 11 and Yogi with just nine. Somewhere during the campaigning, Yogi realized that party managers had selected toughest seats which the BJP had never won. Considering the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP government, the party should have selected those seats which were winnable with a slight push. Therefore, he slowed down his visits to Karnataka and ended up with just nine rallies instead of scheduled 35 rallies. Yogi decided to focus on the local bodies elections in his state and gifted all urban local body polls in UP to the BJP, never witnessed before. Even as the Congress celebrated the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka, the ruling party latched on to the UP's historic win. Modi tweeted to congratulate Yogi on the big win. But many in Delhi blamed Yogi saying the killing of the gangster and politician, Atiq Ahmed in a shootout led to the party losing backward castes among Pasmanda Muslims.

BJP battling with its Satraps too

The BJP's humiliating defeat in Karnataka has brought big smiles on the faces of many regional Satraps who were cooling their heels. With the next Assembly polls due in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh later this year, these strong state leaders in wilderness for a long time, are hopeful of rehabilitation. It is no secret that the party high command doesn't like former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. She was neither made state BJP chief and not the Leader of the Opposition in Assembly. The same goes for Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh who ruled the state for three terms. The BJP leadership tried many combinations but could not succeed. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP leadership is looking to replace Shivraj Singh Chouhan who may fail to win the state as was the case in 2018. But there is no other strong face who can turn an election. The BJP's Trimurti (Modi-Shah-Nadda) is likely to take a call on the leadership issue in these states in June-July.

Faulty Drafting, Kejri smiling

The Modi Government's National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Ordinance, 2023, was aimed at nullifying the ruling by a Constitution bench of the Supreme Court that handed over the reins of “services” to the Kejriwal Government. The newly created Authority will have the power to recommend the transfer and posting of all Group A officers and officers of DANICS serving in Delhi. Since any review or appeal by either side will have to wait until the SC re-opens in July, no immediate remedy may be available to the Kejriwal government. Secondly, the AAP may find it difficult to muster a majority in Rajya Sabha to get the bill defeated. 

However, legal experts say that the Ordinance was drafted in a great hurry and no proper vetting was done. Reason: Under the Ordinance, the authority will be chaired by the Delhi Chief Minister and will include the Chief Secretary and the Principal Secretary, Home, and “all matters required to be decided by the authority shall be decided by majority of votes of the members present and voting.” Legal luminaries wonder how come the two bureaucrats  can be at par with the democratically elected Chief Minister. In any case, the bureaucrats will have a majority. This clause will not be able to stand scrutiny of the law. The Ordinance is bad in law as CM cannot be equated with Chief Secretary and Home Secretary.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The Lucky Commander

As the results of Karnataka Assembly polls started pouring in, the three Gandhis (Sonia, Rahul & Priyanka) were glued to the TV. It was during those relaxing moments where Sonia Gandhi appreciated the efforts put in by 80-year old party president Mallikarjun Kharge who addressed 36 public meetings. If insiders at 10 Janpath are to be believed, Priyanka congratulated her mother saying that the commander chosen by her has been lucky. Priyanka was right as Kharge delivered two states, one after the other, in a span of eight months of taking over the reins as Congress president. Kharge took charge on October 26, 2022 and delivered Himachal Pradesh. This was the first win for the Congress after a long drought on December 8, 2022. Five months later, on May 13, 2023 Kharge delivered a big state like Karnataka to the Gandhis. Karnataka was a litmus test of Kharge as it was his home state. Secondly, he had been unable to digest his defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly poll gave him another opportunity to  make his mark at the national level. He was working hard to keep various factions together and made some tough decisions as well. The BJP leadership realized late in the day that Kharge can be a catalyst in bringing the Dalits and Muslims together in the state. This proved deadly for the BJP as backwards (read Siddharamaiah) and the Vokkalings who also chipped in, thanks to DK Shivakumar. It was DKS who succeeded in demolishing the bastion of Deve Gowda in three decades. Kharge may turn out to be a nemesis for the BJP as he has emerged a new Dalit leader on the horizon. The Congress can hope to bring a large number of Dalits back into its fold which had gone to other parties during the past 30-35 years. The Muslims who had switched over to the likes of Mayawatis and Owaisis, may come back to vote for Congress wherever its candidates are in a position to defeat the BJP.

BMC Polls go a for Toss 

The cascading effects of Karnataka's humiliating defeat are clearly visible in the BJP. The ruling party was all set to declare holding of BMC polls immediately after the Karnataka Assembly polls.  The state BJP Chief  Chandra Shekhar Bawankule, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Mumbai BJP Chief Ashish Shelar and other leaders had met Union Home Minister Amit Shah where he asked them to start working aggressively on every municipal ward. Shah had given a 7-point program to the Maharashtra leaders to snatch the BMC from the Thackeray faction. The SC judgment may have given relief to the Shinde group to continue in office. But the legal battle in the SC and other forums will continue for a long time to come. PM Modi had also visited Mumbai and declared that a "triple engine government in the state is needed". But Karnataka results have put the plan in jeopardy. The BJP lost miserably in the Mumbai-Karnataka region where the majority of seats went to the Congress.

Why BJP lost deposit in Jalandhar bypoll

The BJP not only lost Karnataka, it also faced its worst in Punjab where its candidate in Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat lost his deposit. No doubt, the BJP increased its vote share by 4 per cent in the bypoll compared to the last Assembly elections in segments falling under this parliamentary seat. But Iqbal Singh Atwal (BJP) not only slipped to the 4th place, he lost his deposit as well. A candidate must get 1/6th of total valid votes polled to save deposit. But the BJP candidate failed to get the same. This was a second blow to the BJP in Punjab after its virtual rout in the Assembly polls in 2022. The saffron party severed ties with its most trusted ally for almost three decades on the three farm laws issue. With the Lok Sabha polls looming large, the BJP leadership may now go back to the Akali Dal once again. Sukhbir Singh Badal, president of the Akali Dal, is sitting pretty and smiling though his candidate had also been defeated. But he is happy as the Akali Dal candidate came 3rd after the AAP and Congress. No doubt, the SAD-BJP unity can change the scenario. But Badal is not in a mood to buy the bait as yet and is taking his own sweet time. The BJP's experiment to import leaders from the Congress and other parties failed to bring any dividend in Punjab.

Celebrations postponed 

There is no dearth of leaders in the BJP who say that one defeat in Karnataka is of no consequence. But the party leadership is completely shaken. The first fall out of this defeat gave the cadre another surprise when the BJP leadership quietly shifted the date to start nation-wide celebrations of PM Modi's nine years as Prime Minister. All the Ministers were given a time frame to travel to dedicated areas and hold rallies etc to regale achievements of the Modi government during the nine years period. The celebrations were to begin from May 15 to June 15. Many leaders had booked their tickets to travel with the family and friends from June 20 onward. However, the BJP quietly shifted the dates of celebrations by a fortnight. The celebrations will now be held between May 30-June 30. No one was available to explain why this change!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pawar, Sena (UBT) to attend Opposition conclave at Patna

Kharge may also accept Nitish Kumar invite

 

 

With the BJP losing its only Southern bastion, Karnataka, the Opposition unity efforts have taken a quantum jump.

It is learnt that the NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has agreed to attend the Opposition conclave being held at Patna at the initiative of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also accepted Nitish Kumar's invite and may opt to attend himself or send a senior leader to Patna. The Congress Party has also signaled to attend the conclave. There is a likelihood that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge may himself prefer to go to Patna.

The Chief Ministers of West Bengal and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav, Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury, CPI's General Secretary D Raja, Farooq Abdullah and other prominent leaders are likely attend this conclave. Nitish Kumar had traveled to various state capitals to persuade Opposition leaders to come together before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The Congress high command had told Nitish Kumar that he may go ahead in his efforts to uniting the Opposition parties as some parties are uncomfortable in directly talking to it. Mamata Banerjee is keen for an electoral understanding with the Congress. But her precondition is that it must not have any truck with the CPM in West Bengal. A formula may be worked out in the months to come. Arvind Kejriwal has already conveyed his willingness to join hands with the Congress and other regional parties on the basis of reciprocity. The AAP is likely to contest a “select” number of Lok Sabha seats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi wants single data bank for all Central schemes

Centre spends Rs 7 lakh crores on 50 welfare schemes

Plugged leakages worth Rs two lakh crores

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed the Cabinet Secretariat to create a centralized Data Bank of all beneficiaries of welfare schemes fully funded by the Centre. There are more than 50 such central government schemes in operation at the moment and Rs 3.83 lakh crores were spent during 2022-23. During 2023-24, the government has set aside nearly Rs five lakh crores in the Union Budget. The PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana cost the centre another Rs 2 lakh crores.

In addition to these 50 schemes, the PM is also keen to use the data generated under the One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme launched during the Covid era and continuing to benefit 80 crore people.

These schemes are implemented by various ministries of the Union government such as Ayushman Bharat (Health), PM-KISAN (Agriculture) MNREGAS (Rural Development), E-Shram (Labour), Ujjawala (Petroleum), PM-Awas (Housing Ministry and Rural development), Jal Jeevan Mission (Jal Shakti) Atal Pension Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojana among others.

At least 80% of such beneficiaries have their Aadhar Cards who take advantage of respective state governments as well. Once the ONORC data bank is ready and merged with other schemes, the government will know who all have been left out.

The Central government funds 100% of its Core Schemes while some schemes are funded in the ratio of 60:40 by the centre and states. However, in 8 North Eastern states, the sharing pattern is 90:10. There are Optional Schemes which are funded in the ratio of 50:50 by the Centre and states. 

With the advent of new technology, the creation of a central data bank of all such schemes will be smooth and achievable by December 2023. Obviously, this massive data bank will help the government to knock at the doors of these beneficiaries. The PM is keen to plug leakages in funds allocated under these schemes. The Centre has saved more than Rs 2 lakh crores by plugging leakages using technology and benefits reach those who actually need them.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP Tweaking 75 year's age retirement !

When the BJP leadership decided to retire all its senior leaders above the age of 75 years and not give any executive post either in the party or the government, it was hailed as a new milestone in politics. Prime Minister Modi and new BJP leadership doggedly implemented this policy under which many senior leaders like L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and others were the first ones to bear the brunt. A couple of seniors were made members of the “Margdarshak Mandal” as members. A couple of Chief Ministers including B S Yediyurappa, Anandiben Patel were also shown the door. Senior leaders reconciled to the New BJP and opted to become Governors etc. A couple of such leaders chose to desert the BJP like Nand Kumar Sai in Chhattisgarh for greener pastures. The party has signaled to many of the sitting Lok Sabha Mps like Gen. V K Singh, Radha Mohan Singh, Rama Devi and others that they may not be given tickets in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

But the leadership ran for cover once it realized that the party won't be even able to put up a fight without the help of its tall Lingayat leader Yediyurappa. It tweaked its policy to placate him by inducting Yediyurappa in the all-powerful Parliamentary Board and Central Election Committee. As if this was not enough, he was virtually made incharge of the campaign committee. While his one son is already a member of the Lok Sabha, his other son was given the Assembly ticket. Yediyurappa also ensured that the majority of his supporters get the Assembly tickets as well and swallow the burial of its retirement policy. A defeat of BJP in Karnataka may open Pandora's box in other states where Assembly polls are due in November-December 2023. The Exit-polls have largely sent the BJP packing in Karnataka.

Is Prashant Kishore advising Sachin Pilot?

Prashant Kishore who played a key role in ensuring the victory of many of his clients including PM Modi in 2014 and several regional parties, may have been busy with his 'Jan Suraaj Yatra' in Bihar to test his own political career. But his poll company, I-pack, has got a new client in Sachin Pilot.  As the grapevine has it, I-pack teams are undertaking extensive surveys to gauge the mood of the people in Rajasthan. These surveys are being done as part of designing a strategy for Sachin Pilot for the Rajasthan Assembly polls later this year. This survey has nothing to do with the Congress and evolving a winning strategy for Sachin Pilot. The former PCC chief and former Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot is desperate to find his feet after his failed coup attempt in 2020 against Ashok Gehlot. The party high command has promised to protect the interests of the young Gujjar leader. But given the prevailing political situation, the high command may find it difficult to remove Gehlot. Therefore, Pilot wants to chart out his own course and wants a winning strategy. If sources close to Pilot are any indication, he wants to replicate in Rajasthan what the Janata Dal (S) has been doing in Karnataka i.e. no government can be formed without its support. In a house of 200 seats, Pilot is aiming to get 30-odd seats for his political party which he wants to float. A final decision will be taken 

Emergence of India's New crime Capital

Gone are the days when Mumbai used to be Mafia Dons' Capital of the country. The commercial Capital saw the eclipse of Dawood Ibrahim, Chhotta Rajan and many others who ruled the city while the Police and politicians looked the other way. For some time, NOIDA and other parts of NCR areas became the hub of Mafia Dons. With the advent of Mayawati as Chief Minister in 2007, their reign ended. Briefly, Haryana's Gurugram and nearby areas also saw the emergence of massive extortion and gang wars too. But to the astonishment of people, Delhi has emerged as the new hub of criminal gangs who operate freely. Another shocking aspect is that these gangs are operating from inside the Central Tihar jail right under the nose of the Delhi Police and its masters with complete impunity. The recent murder of a gangster in Tihar jail in the presence of dozens of Policemen and jail administration exposed those governing the Capital's law & order. It also emerged that Delhi Police's Anti-gangster Cell remained inactive for reasons best known to it. These rival gangs were used by powers that be to settle their own scores. The way conman Sukesh Chandrashekhar extorted Rs 200 crores from a leading businessman's family and distributed Rs 50 crores to jail staff and Police and lived a lavish life, has put the Capital to shame. No property can be sold or bought in several areas of Delhi including Najafgarh, Bawana, Narela and parts of South Delhi.

Social Media War

For the first time in many years, the Congress was able to give back to the BJP in social media warfare in the Karnataka Assembly polls. Normally, the BJP's social media cell headed by Amit Malviya is miles ahead of the Congress on social media. The BJP cell used to set the agenda and the Congress was always on the defensive. With the advent of the Modi era in 2014, the digital space has mostly been dominated by the BJP. But it met its match for the first time in Karnataka as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge picked up a team for social media composed of Gaurav Ballabh and Supriya Shrinate while other heavyweights were kept at arms length.