by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

How to douse fire in 'Parivar'

The last word on the bitter chapter between the BJP and its mentor, the RSS which began in the midst of Lok Sabha polls in May this year, is yet to be written. Such differences are nothing new in the 'Sangh Parivar' as these had surfaced when Vasant Rao Oak, Balraj Madhok, L K Advani or even Atal Behari Vajpayee were at the helm. But there was always a happy ending like in most Hindi films and the RSS always emerged the winner. But this time, BJP president J P Nadda said something unimaginable on May 18, 2024. In the midst of the Lok Sabha polls, he said that the BJP does not need RSS support now as the party has grown and is capable (to run its own affairs). He did not stop there and went on to say, “everyone has got their own duties and roles. The RSS is a cultural and social organization and we are a political organization… It's not a question of need...”. Nadda's statement shocked political observers and the Parivar but no one was willing to react. However, the outcome of Lok Sabha polls shocked the BJP leadership as its tally came down to 240 seats from 303. The party had lost the majority though NDA emerged as the winner.

It was expected that the BJP leadership would make amends. But nothing of the sort happened. Finally, the RSS Chief,  Mohan Bhagwat decided to bell the cat exactly two months later on July 18. He said at a public function in Ranchi,“In the course of self-development, a person may want to become a 'superman' and then a “God” and then a “Vishwaroopa”. He did not name anybody but left none in doubt about the intended target.

The Importance of being Suresh Soni

All eyes are now set on the 3-day long annual Coordination Committee meeting of the RSS being held in Kerala beginning August 31 to review the performance of all its 36 frontal organizations including the BJP. Insiders expect that a way forward may emerge when Nadda and a couple of senior Union Ministers attend the Kerala meet. If reports are to be believed, the BJP leadership is already smoking the peace pipe. It realized that without the RSS, it will become a “New Congress”. If the RSS withdraws its workers from its political arm in every district and town, the BJP will be left with only the defectors drawn from other parties. The worried BJP dispensation was busy in the ministry formation and reported to have knocked at the doors of RSS veteran Suresh Soni to find a way out. Soni commands tremendous respect in the RSS and worked in Gujarat and had a tremendous contribution in bringing Modi to Delhi.

The RSS leadership made it clear to the BJP leadership it is not interested in running the government by proxy or otherwise. However, it would like to be consulted before a new party chief is appointed who must be a dedicated RSS worker. The BJP responded saying that the time is short due to the Budget session and Assembly polls are also round the corner and needed time. It also emerged that a working president be appointed. Several names emerged during this intervening period including that of BJP general secretary Vinod Tawade who hails from Maharashtra, former Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and Shivraj Singh Chauhan. But the BJP leadership suggested that Nadda be allowed to continue in the party post until January 2025. Though RSS' Sarkarvyah Dattatreya Hosabole who is number two in the hierarchy, is stationed in Delhi and Arun Kumar, joint general secretary of the RSS looks after the coordination with the BJP, this crisis was handled by Suresh Soni.

Khattar runs Haryana by Proxy

Manohar Lal Khattar may have quit as Chief Minister of Haryana and been inducted in the Union Cabinet after being elected to the Lok Sabha polls from Karnal. But this has not deterred him from running the show in the state. He continues to stay in the Chief Ministerial Bungalow in Chandigarh as his successor Nayab Singh Saini needs his guidance in running the administration. Khattar is a Modi loyalist and a full-time RSS worker. It was at his bidding that another Khattar loyalist Mohan Lal Badoli was appointed as president of the Haryana BJP. Badoli unsuccessfully contested 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Sonipat. He is an MLA of the BJP.  He is a Brahmin by caste and the BJP hopes to reap the harvest by cornering the majority of non-Jat votes in the state. Khattar is a Punjabi while Saini is an OBC. The BJP thinks that the Jats will be divided among the Congress, INLD and JJP. However, the BJP will have a tough time to be third time lucky. During the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP suffered a huge setback in the state when it lost five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats and its vote percentage also fell down. Many wonder why Khattar continues to be the face of the party in Haryana when he was removed due to anti-incumbency ahead of the Assembly polls in December.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Desperate BJP in search of winning formula

The BJP seems to be in the process of evolving a new strategy to deal with the Opposition parties. After massive drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls and huge setback in bye-polls, the BJP leadership is now trying to deal with them differently and this policy may differ from state-to-state. The strategy is to woo the INDIA bloc allies including SP and others. Recently, the Prime Minister granted an audience to the Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren (JMM) who had been sent to jail by the central agencies in corruption cases, a first of sorts. Earlier, the Prime Minister, Modi had not granted an audience to any Chief Minister who had been inside the jail. It may also be borne in mind that cases against Soren continue to be pursued by the CBI and the ED. The Jharkhand BJP leaders are also baffled by this meeting and do not know how to react.

Earlier, the BJP leadership gave a shocker to UP where it suffered massive drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls ending up winning 33 seats only compared to 62 in 2019 polls. The SP under Akhilesh Yadav won 37 seats and the Congress six seats. A shell-shocked party president and Union Minister J P Nadda is traveling from state to state to understand why the party lost seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP's desperation surfaced when it seemed making overtures to SP president Akhilesh Yadav. Apart from dubbing the Congress a “parasite”, Nadda became his ‘well-wisher’. He and other BJP leaders warned Yadav that associating with the Congress can “finish” him. Nadda went on to say that “The Congress wins with the help of other parties and it means it’s a parasite party, which survives on others and then finishes the party on which it depends. It’s a creeper that takes the support of other parties to grow.”

Rahul's to decide on Maharashtra

The Congress Party is in seventh Heaven after a big win in the Lok Sabha polls when it almost doubled its tally to 99 seats. Elated Congress leaders in Maharashtra are seeking around 120 seats in Assembly polls or going solo. The Congress' won 13 Lok Sabha seats out of 17 allotted to it compared to Uddhav's Sena could win 9 seats out of 21, while Sharad Pawar led NCP won 8 out of 10 seats it contested.

But the Central leadership is very clear about retaining unity in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). It is said there was an informal understanding among the MVA partners before the Lok Sabha polls that each one of them will contest 96 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections irrespective of the outcome of Lok Sabha polls. But after the results, Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole started singing a different tune saying the party had become the “big brother” in the alliance. The high command was peeved and AICC state unit in-charge Ramesh Chennithala snubbed Patole. It is said that parties may have to adjust a few seats as per requirement in view of defections as Assembly polls draw near. It had also been decided that the MVA will not project any individual as its chief ministerial face and polls will be fought on collective leadership criteria. The Congress is keen on contesting at least 120 seats arguing that the political situation can't be written in stone. However, Rahul Gandhi who is traveling abroad, had sent a word to state party leaders not to make statements to weaken the MVA.

Is the Pope's visit finally taking off !

After making inroads in Karnataka and Telangana and to some extent in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has its sights on Kerala in South. The NDA’s vote share in the state increased dramatically from 15.56% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to 19.24 per cent in 2024. The BJP not only triumphed in Thrissur but also placed second in Thiruvananthapuram where Rajeev Chandrasekhar lost to Shashi Tharoor by only 16,077 votes. The BJP came first in 11 Assembly constituencies held by Communist parties and second in eight Assembly constituencies. It has now been decided that the BJP will go in a big way to woo the Christians largely because it is unable to get the support of Muslim minority. The Prime Minister's recent meeting with Pope Francis in Italy was extremely significant in this regard. Modi invited Pope Francis to visit India even as a photograph of the two exchanging a warm hug went viral. Though Modi had visited the Pope in 2021 also to visit India but nothing came out of it. But a lot of water has flown down the Ganges since then as the BJP now feels that it can emerge as the principal Opposition party in Kerala in March 2026 Assembly polls. The BJP's Kerala incharge Prakash Javadekar reported to have also emphasized that Pope visit may help in expanding the party's base. The government has been ambivalent on the Pope's visit as the RSS had objected to the visit of Pope John Paul II in 1999 when Atal Behari Vajpayee was Prime Minister. The RSS is peeved that various missionaries are active in converting tribal and poor into Christianity.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

 

When PMO woke up to the weather folly

The country may be in the grip of heavy rains. But not very long ago, all hell broke in the Modi dispensation after it surfaced that the India Meteorological Department (IMD), had erred in predicting Delhi will touch 52.9 degrees Celsius and Nagpur boiling at 56 degrees. Union Minister for Earth Sciences and Parliamentary Affairs Kiran Rijiju took to micro blogging site  "X" the same night saying "Temperature of 52.3°C in Delhi is very unlikely. Our senior officials in IMD have been asked to verify the news report. The official position will be stated soon." 

This was perhaps for the first time in the history of IMD that a Union Minister had to deny weather prediction by the department under his own belt. The government was on the boil as it was discovered that IMD had done the Harakiri creating worldwide panic as the USA had gifted India Supercomputers for weather computing and data analysis. A high-powered committee was tasked with reviewing the anomaly.  The IMD responded by passing on the buck at the doorstep of  the Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) installed at Mungeshpur on the outskirts of Delhi. The IMD DG, M Mohapatra, a handpicked chosen by the government, also blamed the local factors without specifying the same.

It was revealed that the temperature readings at the AWS Mungeshpur reported temperatures approximately 3 degrees Celsius higher than standard instruments during peak periods.  Additionally, on May 31, the IMD clarified that the 56 degrees Celsius recorded in Nagpur was also due to a malfunction of temperature sensors. These values are incorrect due to a failure of the electronic sensor (as confirmed by IMD, Pune),” the IMD posted on X. The blame was passed on to the faulty readings by the AWS instruments and not those who were monitoring data. It transpires that a couple of scientists well-versed in the weather forecasting unit were shifted for some strange reasons. The ministry recommended that stringent automatic quality control be applied to AWS data before public dissemination to avoid public panic. 

Why Rahul Gandhi dumped Kurta Pyjama

It was a pleasant surprise when Rahul Gandhi came to the House on the first day of the 18th Lok Sabha after being anointed as the Leader of the Opposition in a traditional spotless Kurta- Pajama. Settling into a new role, Rahul Gandhi's entry also caused consternation in the saffron camp when the Congress MPs welcomed the leader by chanting "Rahul... Rahul .....". This was a new experience as the Parliament had witnessed roaring BJP MPs chanting "Modi... Modi" whenever the PM entered the Lok Sabha. The BJP leaders, who till now had dismissed Rahul Gandhi as ‘pappu’ or ‘shehzada’ or other adjectives, were dismayed by the attention he got in Parliament. The BJP leadership is also struggling to come to terms with the new situation in the Lok Sabha as the INDIA bloc has enough numbers to match the NDA's dwindled strength. Some of the BJP MPs also acknowledged that he had begun his new role rather well. But the very next day Rahul was back in his favourite Tee shirt and jeans. It is explained by team Rahul Gandhi that the change in attire was to retain millions of followers on social media including Insta who are in the age group of 15-45 years. They are happy with his angry young man image and his style of conducting himself. Rahul Gandhi is unruffled about the comments by those who watch politicians with their prism. He is nursing this constituency as he thinks it is now paying rich dividends. Some BJP MPs wonder about the scenario in the House if Priyanka Gandhi Vadra also joins her brother after winning from Wayanad. The three Gandhis will be too much to handle by the BJP.

The battle for Extremely Backward votes 

The BJP is now learning the ropes to woo the OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes and the battle is in full swing in Bihar for Kushwaha votes. If reports emanating from Patna are any indication, the BJP leadership is promising to send RLP leader Upendra Kushwaha to the Rajya Sabha. The BJP is eyeing both Rajya Sabha seats where the bypoll is due after Misa Bharti (RJD) and Vivek Thakur (BJP) quit their Rajya Sabha seats after being elected to the Lok Sabha. The BJP was entitled to one Rajya Sabha seat only. But it bargained with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and surrendered two Legislative Council seats to the JD (U) in lieu of an extra RS seat. Interestingly, the JD (U) has fielded Bhagwan singh kushwaha for one Legislative Council seat and the BJP will send Upendra Kushwaha to the Rajya Sabha. Kushwaha's seat will have four year tenure until 2028 while the seat vacated by Vivek Thakur will have two year term until 2026. This seat may go to  former Power Minister R K Singh who lost the Lok Sabha polls. 

Tailpiece: The BJP has a policy of one man one post. At times, a leader has held two posts for some time due to compelling reasons. But J P Nadda is perhaps the only leader in the BJP's 44 year old history who dons three hats; he remains BJP president, appointed as Leader of the Rajya Sabha and Union Health and Chemicals & Fertilizers Minister.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP leadership worried as Murmurs begin from within

Fall out of Lok Sabha results hurting the ruling party

After the BJP tally came down from 303 to 240 seats in the June 2024 Lok Sabha polls, murmurs from within have started surfacing. If Minister of State (Independent Charge) Rao Inderjit Singh expressed his disgruntlement in public over denial of a Cabinet berth to him, a seven time Lok Sabha MP Ramesh Jigajinagi from Karnataka said he did not know whether it was “justice or injustice” that he was denied a cabinet berth.

Rao Inderjit Singh is a Minister in the Modi government since 2014 and a strong OBC leader of Haryana while Ramesh Jigajinagi belongs to the Dalit community. Rao Inderjit Singh said that the people of Haryana were upset over the fact that he hasn’t been promoted as Cabinet Minister this time either. Ramesh Jigajinagi said, “All upper caste (leaders) became (ministers). Does that mean that Dalits did not support the BJP at all? I am very pained by this.”

Haryana, a state with 10 Lok Sabha seats has three Union Ministers; Manoharlal Khattar (Cabinet) and Krishan Pal Gurjur (MoS) besides Rao Inderjit Singh. It may be mentioned that Assembly polls are due in Haryana this year end. Karnataka with 28 Lok Sabha seats, has been given four ministerial berths; Pralhad Joshi and H.D. Kumaraswamy of the JD-S (Cabinet) while Shobha Karandlaje and V. Somanna are MoS.

The BJP leadership has downplayed comments from these leaders. But there is a growing tendency within the BJP rank & file to express their grievances in public. It may also be mentioned that the RSS leadership was first to speak against personality cult saying “the true Sewak is the one who remains unattached and there is no arrogance that I did this”. The RSS' mouthpiece has become vocal in criticising the functioning of the party twice within a month.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

RSS' Delhi Headquarters Ready

The State-of-the art Jhandewalan headquarters of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is ready for occupation. The Delhi headquarters has already been given 24X7 security cover by the CISF. Known as “Keshav Kunj”, the northern India office has been under construction for almost a decade. The project took long because it is situated in a congested locality and that too in a low-lying area and other technical problems. But the building is now awaiting its opening ceremony.

The building will overshadow the RSS' Nagpur-based national headquarters which was built sometime in the 1930s. It is still not clear if the RSS will also be shifting its headquarters from Nagpur to Delhi. The modern infrastructure of Keshav Kunj building has two towers of 12 to 16 floors spread over an area of more than two lakh square feet which is larger than the BJP's newly built national headquarters. Since the RSS has grown leaps and bounds particularly under the current RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat, the building may also accommodate many of its frontal organizations working in various fields.

BJP's Assembly polls Waterloo

After a serious setback in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP leadership is moving with utmost caution in formulating its strategy to win Assembly polls to be held in four states during the next five months. The BJP high command is not sure if the Assembly polls in four states will be held simultaneously or in a staggered manner. Union Home Minister Amit Shah. nick-named as BJP's Chanakya, is traveling to these poll bound states and burning midnight oil to avoid another Harakiri. The BJP cannot afford to lose any of these states to re-establish its winning streak. The outcome of these polls will be a turning point as it will also have a bearing in Assembly polls in 2025 and biennial polls in Rajya Sabha as well.

The first challenge will be holding Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir after the abolition of Article 370 in 2019. The Supreme Court recently directed that the Assembly polls be held before September 30, 2024. The Chief Election Commissioner, Rajiv Kumar is on record to say that the EC is ready to hold the polls. However, the Union Home Ministry has yet to give final security clearance. The terms of the existing legislative assemblies in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand are ending on November 3, November 26 and January 5, 2025 respectively. Though the EC has the power to club polls in three states simultaneously, it may go by past precedents. The EC had held Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana together on October 21, 2019 and Jharkhand on December 7 the same year.

Succession issue grips regional parties

With Rahul Gandhi becoming the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, the succession issue has finally been settled in the Congress Party. This development has also put an end to speculation that Rahul Gandhi runs away from shouldering responsibilities. It is a different matter that he has yet to acquire the skills of a parliamentarian par excellence. His sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra may also be in Lok Sabha soon. But the baton of the Gandhi dynasty has formally been passed over to Rahul Gandhi. The Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati also reversed her decision to sack her nephew Akash as inheritor of her legacy. Even the TMC's Mamata Banerjee has virtually appointed nephew Abhishek Banerjee as her political successor. The succession issue has also been settled in NCP with Supriya Sule winning the Baramati Lok Sabha seat and trounched rival Ajit Pawar faction with a big margin.

However, uncertainty prevails in the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Janata Dal (U), Bhartiya Rashtriya Samiti (BRS) and others. Earlier, K Chandrashekhar Rao had appointed his son K T Ramarao as his successor in the BRS. But this may not be true as his nephew Harish Rao has thrown his hat in the ring. The big problem is brewing in the AAP as Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal continues to languish in Tihar Jail in the liqorgate scam along with many of his ministers. A couple of names have cropped up as his successor including his wife Sunita Kejriwal, Sanjay Singh, Sandeep Pathak, Gopal Rai or even Atishi Merlina. But it is still early days as Kejriwal is not giving up so soon. 

 The double headache

Rural Development and Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh has made a mark in a very short time in the Modi 3.0 government in the shortest possible time. His several initiatives have forced political analysts to turn their heads. He was perhaps the first Cabinet Minister to call on the President Droupadi Murmu to seek her blessings after assuming the charge. He also took another initiative by inviting rural development and agriculture ministers of states at a time and date of their convenience to understand their problem and take steps accordingly. His “Ladli Behna” scheme is also catching the imagination of states with Maharashtra taking the lead. If Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari is the most popular minister in the Modi government, the emergence of Shivraj Singh Chouhan on the scene is like a double yammy.