by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

India's Trade deficit with China doubled amid strained ties

It may sound strange but true. India may have adopted a tough posture against China saying unless peace and tranquility is maintained on the borders, trade, cultural and other relations cannot be normal. But India's imports from China have been rising rapidly year after year ever since border clashes erupted in 2020. India's trade deficit with China in 2020-21 was low at Rs 3.25 lakh crores. Those watching Indo-China trade were shocked to see that the trade deficit sky-rocketed to a new high of Rs 5.46 lakh crores in 2021-22. As if this was not enough, the 2022-23 saw a historic figure as the trade deficit touched Rs 6.68 lakh crores mark. Within a span of two years the balance of trade more than doubled in favour of China.

This was also despite the fact that a tough stance was adopted by the Modi government refusing permission to several Chinese companies to set up shop in India. Many high-tech companies had even agreed to bring technology and take an Indian partner as well. But no permission was granted to any one of them. But India's trade deficit doubled within two years from Rs 3.25 lakh crores to Rs 6.68 lakh crores in 2022-23.

The mind boggling figures were officially stated in the Lok Sabha the other day by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry in response to a question by an MP. The government said “most of the goods imported from China are capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials and are used for meeting the demand of fast expanding sectors like electronics, telecommunication and power.” In order to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports, the government has also launched the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in 14 sectors. But there is no respite from the mounting trade deficit. 

India's Debt rose by 2.65 times in 9 years

The debt of the Central Government touched a record high of Rs 155.60 lakh crores i.e. 57.10% of the GDP as on March 31, 2023. The debt as on March 31, 2014 was just Rs 58.6 lakh crore i.e. 52.20% of the GDP, a five percentage point jump.

The debt sky-rocketed to new heights within nine years under the current dispensation. The debt of the Union Government in 2020-21 was Rs 121.9 lakh crore and Rs 105.10 lakh crores in 2019-20. Revealing this figure in an unstarred question in the Lok Sabha, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that one of the reasons for the high debt percentage and amount was on account of Covid-19 global pandemic, which hugely disrupted projections of Government’s public

finances.

The questions posed by two opposition leaders, Ravneet Singh Bittu and Adhikari Deepak, were about the details of debt amount per citizen of the country as on 30th June, 2023. But the minister gave the total debt which touched a record high of Rs 155.60 lakh crores. However, the Minister claimed that the risk profile of Central Government’s debt stands out as safe and prudent in terms of accepted parameters of indicator-based approach for debt sustainability. The Government debt is held predominantly (about 95%) in domestic currency. Outstanding external debt is financed by multilateral and bilateral agencies at concessional rates.

Its a different matter that interest paid by the Central government also rose from Rs 5.83 lakh crores in 2018-19 to Rs 9.28 lakh crores in 2022-23. The Government had announced its commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit to the level below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. But it's a long way to go.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pawar's stony silence

NCP president Sharad Pawar declined to speak at the 26 Opposition parties' conclave in Bengaluru on July 18. He maintained a studied silence despite being specifically requested by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. He requested Pawar at the beginning of the meeting itself to speak. When Pawar showed his reluctance, Kharge moved on and came back to Pawar again. But Pawar was in no mood to speak. After his most trusted colleagues and nephew Ajit Pawar split the party to join hands with the BJP, Pawar has not been in his element. He has  maintained a silence for the past sometime and looking for an opportunity to turn the tables on those who deserted him at the fag end of his political career.  Even in the Rajya Sabha, he has been maintaining complete silence. Though the majority of Mps in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha are with him, the strength on the ground in Maharashtra is yet to be tested. Pawar has an uncanny knack of sensing what's in store for the future in politics and has tremendous patience. He has always emerged as a winner. But for the time being he is on the receiving end as his one foot is in “INDIA” (A conglomerate of 26 parties) while the majority of MLAs are with the ruling NDA.

Waiting for Auspicious Day

The new Parliament building was ready and cleared after mock drills were conducted by experts. Every Member of Parliament was excited to start the new inning in the State-of-the-Art 'Temple of Democracy' during the Monsoon session. Then came the word that the shifting would be done during the midst of the Monsoon session. Why ? Are there any hiccups ? Any problem? It was stated by Hanuman Beniwal, a Member of the Lok Sabha from Rajasthan who is neither with the NDA and nor with the Opposition, that there is water-logging, seepage and leakage in the new building after heavy rains hit the National Capital. The official sources deny this insinuation. But insiders have another tail saying there is nothing of the sort. The Modi dispensation is looking for an auspicious date for the inauguration ceremony as conflicting views are being expressed by astrologers. The 'pandits' are differing and therefore, the session is held in the old Parliament building for now. A formal announcement regarding the new date is expected any time.

Why RSS is uneasy !

The RSS is extremely baffled as to why the Prime Minister did not deem it fit to speak on violence in Manipur as it washed out decades of its work there. The  Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram, a wing of the RSS founded 68 years ago, is dedicated to uplift eight crores tribal in the NE. Its other major task is to ensure that clashes among the communities must not be turned into Hindu-Christians conflicts. The RSS leadership was extremely happy that PM Modi helped tremendously during all these years not only in Manipur but other NE states by creating infrastructure and going there almost every month. The people of Manipur take the PM in high esteem and adore him. When the violence erupted in Manipur in May and started getting out of hand, it was conveyed to the government that intervention was needed at the highest level. After a month and a half the RSS issued an appeal for peace in Manipur on June 19 expecting the PM to take a hint and break his silence. The PM first spoke on Manipur violence on July 20, opening day of the Parliament session for just 36 seconds to waiting TV channels. He spoke at BJP's Parliamentary Party meeting on July 25. Many in the RSS are surprised as to why the PM is not speaking inside the Parliament as it will have an electrifying effect. The RSS is extremely worried that it will take decades to heal the wounds and bring communities together again.

The shaky top

With the Supreme Court turning heat on some of the actions of the Modi dispensation, the Centre is cautious enough not to take any decision which may create any bad blood. The Centre's instance has made two senior serving top bureaucrats uneasy; Cabinet Secretary Rajive Gauba and Union Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla who have served for nearly four years in office. This is two years more than their stipulated tenure after retirement. Both are fine officers and the government decided to continue with them even after two years tenure. No extension order has been issued in case Bhalla who is retiring on July 30, 2023. Gauba's tenure is ending in August. The name of Vandita Sharma, currently Chief Secretary, Karnataka is being mentioned as the next Cabinet Secretary. The re-thinking is emerging after a strong remarks from the bench of the Chief Justice of India on continuance of Sanjay Mishra as Enforcement Director. The government is in no mood to earn such a rap again. Sanjay Mishra is set to go as ED chief for almost five years in office where he conducted 2000 raids across the country and attached assets worth Rs 65000 crores. But the SC was in no mood to listen to his achievements saying the rules of service do not provide for such an interpretation. A fixed tenure means that an officer can continue for a minimum period of two years after retirement. It does not mean that the officers can hold the seat of power for an indefinite period. Gauba, however, may be sent as Principal Adviser in the PMO, a post earlier held by P K Sinha. Interestingly, the Centre is fighting to the fit to ensure Sanjay Mishra's stay at ED only. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Ye Dil Mange More....... Modi wants more parties in the NDA kitty

The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi seems keen to rope in more and more parties in the NDA kitty. Not satisfied by having 37 parties, big or small, recognized or unrecognized, he wants to bring in as many parties as possible before the Lok Sabha polls. If reports emanating from the BJP headquarters are any indication, talks are underway with five more parties to bring them into the NDA.

The Janata Dal (S) headed by former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda has already said it would join the NDA after the Congress Party refused to do business with it. The BJP leadership is also wooing Mukesh Sahani, president of the Vikaksheel Insaan Party (VIP), to rejoin the NDA even as his three out of four MLAs in the Bihar Assembly joined the BJP. This left Mukesh Sahani in the lurch and now he is in demand again.

The BJP is also inclined to admit Mahaan Dal led by Keshav Dev Maurya which had declared support to BSP led by Mayawati. But the BSP is cool towards Mahaan Dal. It contested two seats out of 403 with the support of Samajwadi Party in 2022 and lost both. Now BJP thinks it can add in its kitty some SC/OBC votes.

But there was considerable surprise when the BJP leadership invited Haryana Janhit Party leader Gopal Kanda who is an MLA in state assembly. He is facing an abatement of suicide of an airhostess charge. But he himself did not attend the NDA meet and sent his representative. The list of 38 parties, however, did not contain his party's name. But he has been told that he is part of the NDA. Efforts are on to bring more parties from states like Punjab, Andhra, Telangana and other states.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Pressure mounting for Manipur CM Removal

BJP High Command disinclined

Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh may be under intense pressure to quit particularly after the Supreme Court's strong comments, the BJP high command seems reluctant to sacrifice him, at least for now.

Though the ruling BJP did buckle under pressure by expressing its readiness to discuss the Manipur situation in Parliament and the PM also expressed his “pain and anguish”. But there is no likelihood of the BJP high command agreeing to remove the Chief Minister despite wide-spread outrage not only in India but abroad as well after video of two Kukies women being paraded naked went viral. The Chief Justice of India, D Y Chandrachud also stepped in saying either bring the perpetrators to book or “step aside for the judiciary to take action.

A senior BJP office bearer said the current party leadership is unlikely to remove a sitting Chief Minister for failure to handle law & order situation. He said that the current crisis emerged after a court ruling giving ST status to a particular community. There was complete peace and harmony for all these years in the state and violence engulfed as a reaction to the court ruling. The administration on the ground could not anticipate its intensity initially.

The top priority of the state government is to restore law & order which is gradually returning to normalcy. The Union Home Minister had “talked to the Kuki groups and assured them of speedy action.”

The current BJP's central leadership is not known to remove its Chief Ministers in states or even Union Ministers merely because there is demand of their resignation. “No Chief Minister has been remove under the current dispensation on failure of law and order. The BJP has removed Chief Ministers only when the party finds that elections can't be won under his leadership in the state.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A political storm erupts over Opposition alliance “INDIA”

A political storm has hit over the nomenclature of the 26 Opposition parties' alliance as INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). While many leaders and parties feel that it is not appropriate to nickname the alliance as INDIA, the ruling NDA alliance dubbed it as a “political tool” in desperation. Some of them even feel that there should have been broad-base discussion before announcing the name.

It was TMC's Dereck O'brien who tweeted in the midst of the leaders' meeting yesterday “Chuck De India”. This was immediately followed by Congress MP Manick Tagore in his tweet “Jeetega India”. As if this was not enough, Priyanka Chaturvedi of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) used “INDIA” thrice in her tweet.” All this created utter confusion and acrimony began.

Though Janata Dal (U) president Lalan Singh made it clear today that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is not angry with the name INDIA as it was he who brought the Opposition parties together.

The clarification may have helped in subsiding the unhappiness among other parties as credit for choosing the name went to Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee.

The AAP leaders found nothing wrong in the Opposition alliance as INDIA.  Sanjay Raut, Sena Uddhav MP said, “Supporters of Narendra Modi used to say PM Modi is India but he is not India. Every citizen of the country is India.”

According to a senior leader who was inside the meeting, reports that appeared in a few TV channels were not true as enough discussion was held on the name of the alliance. The Congress's Tamil Nadu ally Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) suggested Save India Alliance while the Left parties suggested, “ We for India alliance.” But many felt it sounded like a slogan. Finally, Rahul Gandhi emphatically pushed for INDIA and others agreed. Those knocking at the doors of Election Commission for preventing the use of INDIA may not succeed as alliance is not a political party.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

Amit Shah takes the command

After drubbing in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, it is clearly emerging that Union Home & Cooperation Minister Amit Shah has taken the command of Assembly elections in five states going to polls this year end. Amit Shah has deployed some of his loyalist ministers as state Prabharis in addition to party incharges in these five states. The Prime Minister was extremely upset over the defeat in Himachal where it had bright prospects of retaining power. But after the Karnataka loss, days of niceties are gone and Amit Shah is ruthlessly dealing with errant party leaders in these states. The open-arm policy of admitting leaders from other parties and humouring estranged allies is part of a mega plan. Amit Shah is extremely confident of winning Rajasthan after a truce of sorts has been worked and working very hard in Madhya Pradesh where all surveys said that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is on a weak wicket. But Amit Shah decided that changing the horse at this late stage will not work and gave full support. Chouhan on this part has opened state's coffers by doling one freebie after the other to woo the voters and thrown to the winds Prime Minister Modi's sermons to states not to fall prey to freebies to win polls. Amit Shah is still struggling to find a face to take on Bhupesh Baghel as central agencies alone cannot be of big help. Barring Telangana, the BJP is confident of winning at least Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram.

Desperate search for allies

It is a bizarre situation never witnessed before in the political arena where ruling and principal Opposition parties tried hard to rope in as many new allies as possible before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. If the BJP claims to have roped in 38 allies into the NDA, the Congress also claimed a huge figure of 26 parties in Bengaluru. There is considerable surprise over BJP's desperation to get more and more allies irrespective of the fact that 24 of them didn't have a single MP in the Lok Sabha and seven have just one Lok Sabha seat. For almost four years, the BJP hardly held a meeting of the NDA even once after Modi won in May 2019. One of the reasons attributed to the allegations  is that the BJP leadership in states worked meticulously to weaken its allies to ensure a majority on its own. Be it Bihar or Maharashtra or Punjab, the BJP kept experimenting  with this formula to strengthen its own vote bank. But all of a sudden it changed strategy and opened its doors for all and sundry to jack up NDA's Lok Sabha tally to 400 seats in 2024. Sensing the BJP's move, the Congress leadership is also walking an extra mile to placate more and more allies even at its own cost. If the Congress swallowed the bitter AAP pill by conceding its demand on the Delhi Services Ordinance, it was also doing everything possible to placate allies. The Gandhis have buried their big ego and conceded space to allies to take its own Lok Sabha tally to three digits. So much so that Mallikarjune Kharge said that the Congress for the post of Prime Ministerial. The Congress' 26 parties alliance is better spread in reach in Lok Sabha as 18 parties had at least one or more Lok Sabha Mps. One of the reasons for BJP walking an extra mile is that it has 160 vulnerable Lok Sabha seats. Even out of 224 Lok Sabha seats where it got more than 50% votes and remaining 79 with good margin, it is worried to retain this number in 2024.

Uneasiness growing in BJP-RSS

The open-door policy adopted by the BJP leadership allowing all kinds of parties and leaders in the NDA has created huge resentment in the cadre. The RSS which worked hard for decades in helping the BJP is somewhat upset as old loyalists are gradually being eased out and cooling their heels while defectors are given plum posts. The BJP has become a washing machine where all scamsters become clean and given berths in states and even at the Centre. There is a feeling that the BJP's image of a party with a difference has taken a hit and it's only because of PM Modi's clean image that the electorate continue to vote for it. There is growing unrest  resulted in the loss of Assembly polls in Karnataka and elsewhere. Even in Maharashtra, the BJP realised that breaking the Shiv Sena alone may not give dividends electorally and decided to rope in Ajit Pawar as well. But the challenge will be to win 152 Assembly seats, the BJP has set for 2024 polls when it has two strong allies demanding half the seats. The BJP high command is now walking an extra mile to keep old loyalists in good humour. During the July 2021 Cabinet reshuffle, a dozen odd loyalists were shown the door without any future in store. Most of these leaders were far below the threshold age limit of 75 years.

Why Rahul opted for Dixit's House

There is a sea-change in Rahul Gandhi's thinking and style as he wants to paint more and more as a commoner. This change became more visible after his Bharat-Jodo-Yatra. He vacated the official bungalow before the deadline after being disqualified. For the initial period, he shifted to 10 Janpath residence of Sonia Gandhi. But kept looking for a house on rent in a congested location in Nizamuddin. He sent two signals; one that he doesn't have a house of his own in Delhi and opted for a not so lavish house either in the prime locality of Jor Bagh or Golf Links. Very soon, he may be found undertaking morning walks in the Humayun Tomb park and mingling with the people.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Delhi Ordinance: Non-aligned parties hold the key

Tough for Kejriwal to muster support in Rajya Sabha

The AAP Convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal will face a tough time to defeat Centre's Delhi Services Bill in the Rajya Sabha even as the Congress pledged its support to him. If the Government doesn't have a clear majority in the Rajya Sabha, the same goes for the 24 parties alliance too.

Given the composition of the Rajya Sabha after 11 MPs were elected unopposed today, the BJP and its allies have 105 votes in the kitty in a House of 238. The BJP will need 120 votes to ensure the passage of the controversial bill currently engaging the attention of the Supreme Court as well. In addition, the government has the support of five nominated and two Independents Mps taking the total to 112. The government can also nominate two members to the Rajya Sabha which can take the total to 114. The Janata Dal (S) and TDP having one MP each in RS are also in touch with the BJP.

Therefore, a decision by the YSR Congress (9), BJD (9) and BSP (1) who together have the support of 19 Mps will hold the key to the fate of the Delhi Ordinance. If these parties remain absent during the time of voting, the government can sail through easily as the strength of the Rajya Sabha will come down to 219. Kejriwal will have to work hard to woo these non-aligned parties to support him in the Rajya Sabha to ensure the defeat of the Bill. Kejriwal may have been pressurizing the Congress to declare its support to him. But this alone is not enough to defeat the Bill. He will have to knock at the doors of these non-aligned parties as well.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Search for New Home secretary begins

With the diminishing prospects of Ajay Bhalla getting a fourth extension as Union Home Ministry, a search has begun for his successor. Though there is no dearth of officers who think that Bhalla may get an unprecedented fourth term in office this being an election year, many feel that it may not be possible considering the tough stand taken by the Supreme Court on repeated extensions given to Enforcement Director Sanjay Mishra. Reports emanating from North Block suggest that a search has already begun for a new Home Secretary which is not decided merely on the basis of seniority and given two years tenure irrespective of his date of retirement. There are at least five service officers of the 1987 batch and seven of 1988 batch in the race, names of Apurva Chandra, Secretary, Ministry of Information & Broadcasting and Culture Secretary Govind Mohan are being mentioned.

Chandra is IAS officer of 1988 batch of Maharashtra cadre, is a front runner for the Home Secretary's post followed by Govind Mohan, Secretary, Culture and Manoj Joshi, Secretary, Urban Development. But Apurva Chandra's tenure in the Defence Ministry handling acquisition of armaments for the forces was highly appreciated. Thereafter, he was shifted to the Labour ministry where he framed the four Labour Codes, a key part of Labour reforms in the country. In the I&B Ministry, he is the man behind the banning of questionable content on social media and keeping a close watch on social media platforms. It may be interesting to mention that Ajay Bhalla created a record of sorts being the only officer to hold the Home Secretary's post for four year during the past 60 years. He was appointed as home secretary in august 22, 2019 for a period of two years and was given more extensions. L P Singh, an IAS officer, remained Home Secretary for seven years from September 1964 to January 1971. Thereafter, there was no one who occupied office for 4 years.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Shinde shaky? No way

There is no dearth of speculation that Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde may be disqualified sooner than expected. The Supreme Court had decided to refer the case to the Assembly Speaker, Rahul Narvekar as it is the prime duty of the Speaker to take a decision first under the Anti-Defection Act. The SC will step in only after a decision is pronounced by the Speaker. In the event of Shinde and his faction being disqualified, it may open opportunities for Devendra Fadnavis's return as Chief Minister who had missed the bus in 2019 after a brief stint. Alternatively, NCP leader Ajit Pawar's dream to don the mantle may come true. The NCP leader has held the post of Deputy Chief Minister four times in the past and hasn't proved lucky to his Chief Ministers; be it Ashok Chavan, Prithiviraj Chavan or Devendra Fadnavis or Uddhav Thackeray. There is a lurking fear that Shinde may meet the same fate if the past record of Ajit Pawar is any indication. But the BJP high command in Delhi is clear about what it intends to do in Maharashtra. If reports emanating from BJP high command are any indication, it would prefer to take a call only after the Assembly polls in five states in November-December rather than sacrificing an ally in Eknath Shinde. A clue of high command's thinking emerged yesterday when Speaker Narvekar hoped that “the SC would not ask him to decide on the disqualification of Sena MLAs within a specified time frame as that would be judicial interference in the legislature work.” This is a clear indication that Narvekar will take his own time in deciding a complex issue as SC itself allowed Eknath Shinde to continue because Uddhav Thackeray quit before facing the trial of strength in the Assembly. The BJP is eyeing 42-44 Lok Sabha seats and will do everything possible under the Sun to prevent the fall of the Shinde government and to remove the perception that the saffron party weakens its allies. The legal luminaries say that the case will drag on one pretext or the other until December. The BJP may like to have a trial of strength between the MVA and NDA during the BMC polls and test waters in Mumbai. The BJP leadership will keep the new allies happy to weaken Sharad Pawar further.

No VP Post for Priyanka

The AICC is agog with reports that party general secretary Priyanka Vadra Gandhi may be promoted as Vice President along with K C Venugopal who is general secretary (organization). However, Rahul Gandhi seems to have torpedoed this plan saying that no member of the Gandhi family will hold any key position. Rahul Gandhi is also of the firm view that AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge be allowed to constitute his own organization team for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It is a different matter that Priyanka Vadra Gandhi's role may be enlarged in view of her growing appeal as a star campaigner. She had made a mark in the party's win in Himachal Pradesh and also in Karnataka.

Why BJP wants Modi vs Rahul clash in 2024

Rahul Gandhi had quit the party president's post long ago and after his disqualification as Lok Sabha MP, he is no longer a “Public Servant” either. He had repeatedly said that he is not a contender for the Prime Minister's post. He has categorically told allies like NCP's Sharad Pawar and Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar that he is not a contender for the PM's post. His only objective is to unite the Opposition parties to dislodge Modi. Yet the BJP leadership is desperate to turn the 2024 battle into PM Modi vs Rahul Gandhi. Union Home Minister Amit Shah also pits Rahul Gandhi against Prime Minister Narendra Modi for 2024 LS polls in his public rallies. The BJP leaders continue to mock and ridicule the Gandhi scion. Though Modi is the country's most popular leader, BJP's target number one is Rahul Gandhi. It may be noted that no senior BJP leader accuses either Mallikarjun Kharge or Sonia Gandhi in public discourse. They do not go out of their way to criticise Priyanka Vadra Gandhi either. Perhaps, the BJP leadership believes that Rahul Gandhi is the soft target despite the fact that he has come a long way particularly after his “Bharat Jodo Yatra.” The public perception about Rahul Gandhi has also undergone a change and gone are the days when he used to trip during public speeches. His image makeover has surprised many.

Javadekar's graph rising again

Of the 12 Ministers removed from the Union Council of Ministers in July 2021, only two of them have proved to be lucky to get an important role. If Thaawarchand Gehlot who was Leader of the Rajya Sabha after Arun Jaitley's death, was appointed as Governor of Karnataka, Prakash Javadekar is playing a key role in the party. He was made Prabhari of Kerala where the party is determined to win at least 4-5 Lok Sabha seats. He has succeeded to a large extent in roping Christians into the BJP's fold. Now he has been made a Prabhari of Telangana which is going to polls in November- December this year. Senior Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad who also lost ministerial assignment in July 2021, has been holding press conferences occasionally on important issues. It's a different matter that he did this task efficiently 20 years ago. The other nine ex-ministers are not so lucky and live in hope of getting an important task later.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Search for New ED begins

Nitin Gupta front runner, four others in Race

With the Supreme Court curtailing the tenure of Enforcement Director S K Mishra to July 31, 2023, the search for his successor has begun right earnest. Topping the list of probables is Nitin Gupta, chairman, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) who is a favourite of the current dispensation. He has been at the helm of affairs in the Income-Tax department; first as Member (Investigation) and later became Chairman CBDT by superseding a couple of board members. His tenure is coming to an end in September 2023. After the ED, its Income-Tax department which has conducted a record number of surveys, searches and raids. The latest IT raid which shot into prominence was on BBC which conceded months later that it underpaid Income Tax.

The others in the fray are Pravin Kumar (IRS IT: 1987) who is also a Member, CBDT. He is one batch junior to Nitin Gupta. But nothing stalls his chances as seniority alone cannot be the criteria in such a sensitive position. Former Director of Financial Intelligence Unit Pankaj Kumar Mishra and Simanchala Dash, a former Principal Special Director in the ED are also being mentioned for the key post.

The ED director is selected as per provisions of the CVC Act 2003. A committee of three members with the Chief Central Vigilance Commissioner VC P K Srivastava as chairman, Revenue Secretary in the Finance Ministry Sanjay Malhotra and S Radha Chauhan, Secretary, Department of Personnel & Training will select the new ED. Nitin Gupta's tenure as CBDT chairman is coming to an end in September. The tenure of the ED Director will not be less than two years and any transfer has to be with the recommendation of the appointing authority. The current ED, Sanjay Mishra created a history by remaining in the post for almost five years.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

With Tribal up against UCC, BJP rushes to calm tempers

Centre struggling to evolve a consensus

With the 15 crore Tribal population in the country including three NorthEast Tribal states opposing the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the ruling party is struggling to find ways to evolve a consensus.

Three tribal majority states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram, part of the ruling NDA, are openly opposing the UCC. Mizoram Assembly went to the extent of even passing a unanimous resolution opposing the UCC. The Chief Minister said that the UCC will disintegrate the country. The reasons are political too as the Mizoram Assembly is set to go to polls in November-December this year.

The resignation of Harsh Chouhan, Chairman of the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes (NCST), eight months ahead of his tenure has added to the woes of the government. Chouhan stoutly opposed the move to encroach the tribal land. He said that he was “fulfilling its constitutional mandate of protecting tribal rights and would continue to do so”. Harsh Chouhan was a staunch RSS -BJP loyalist.

In addition, as many as 30 tribal organizations have also expressed fear that the UCC will dilute the tribal customary laws. They fear that two tribal laws -- the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act and the Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act -- may get affected due to UCC. The two laws protect tribal lands.

The BJP's ST Morcha chief Samir Oraon told Lokmat, “there are 15 crore tribal population in the country and efforts are being made and discussions are going on in various forums.” He won't say anything except for adding, "We are in the first stage of discussions on the UCC.”

The BJP leadership is trying hard to put contentious issues under the carpet and evolve a workable UCC acceptable to all. The Parliamentary Standing Committee headed by Sushil Modi tried to douse the anger by saying that the Tribal may be kept out of the UCC. But experts say that it is easier said than done.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP's roping in more allies before 2024 LS polls

Sukhbir Badal offered Cabinet Rank?

With NCP boat rocking in Maharashtra, utter confusion and turmoil is being witnessed among the Opposition parties. With reports emanating from Patna that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is thinking of buying peace with the BJP once again. Nitish Kumar's meeting with the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, Harivansh led to reports that he may act as a messenger of JD (U) to Prime Minister Modi.

The BJP leadership has also come to realize that given the diversity of a country like India, it will have to work with the allies. The “re-think” is clearly visible when it sent out a message to the estranged partner Akali Dal to rejoin the NDA and Union Cabinet. There are reports that the BJP has asked president of the Akali Dal and Lok Sabha MP, Sukhbir Singh Badal to join the Cabinet instead of his wife Harsimrat Kaur.

The BJP leadership has also decided to go with the Janata Dal (S) in Karnataka for the Lok Sabha polls.

There are indications that Capt Amrinder Singh may be sent as Governor now as his wife who is a sitting Congress MP can join the BJP later to contest on the BJP ticket. Alternatively, the seat may go to his son. The YSR- CP Chief and Andhra Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy called on the PM and Union Home Minister today. This gave credence to reports that he may join the NDA but only after the Assembly polls. He is ready to hold Assembly polls early in November-December along with five other states. After winning the Assembly, he can join the NDA for the Lok Sabha polls as well.

He wants to prevent any BJP-TDP alliance in Andhra Pradesh as there are as many as 17 CBI and ED cases against him and his family and party members.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP eyes Maharashtra-type Operation in Bihar

The success of BJP leadership in staging a coup in the NCP may have brought cheers on the faces of leaders in states like Bihar, UP and elsewhere. Many leaders of the NDA have started making claims that the fall of the JD (U)-RJD-Congress government is imminent.

However, reports emanating from Bihar indicate that the Maharashtra-type coup is not possible in the Nitish-led government. Reasons are many; the foremost being that the BJP has just 78 MLAs at present in the House of 243 along with HAM's 4 MLAs while Nitish-led ruling alliance is enjoying the support of 160 plus MLAs.

Secondly; Nitish Kumar is ruling the state and is a smart cookie, say political analysts. Third; the Speaker of the Assembly belongs to the RJD and without the support of the Speaker no such effort may succeed in any state.

The BJP is desperate to garner support in Bihar to turn the tables in Bihar. But the party doesn't have a master craftsman like the one, Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra. The BJP leaders concede that most of their senior leaders wanting to dislodge Nitish Kumar are at loggerheads themselves. There are seven Chief Ministerial aspirants in the BJP. Now these leaders see a silver-lining after the coup in Maharashtra yesterday.

Senior BJP leader Sushil Modi has gone on record to claim

that “if the party (JD-U) breaks up there is no chance of Nitish Kumar being able to make a comeback to the NDA fold.” Chirag Paswan, senior LJP leader predicted doom for Nitish Kumar sooner than expected. Union minister Ramdas Athawale also made a big claim on Monday saying that the Maharashtra-like situation could erupt in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Rijiju & a Mysterious Audio-Tape

When Kiren Rijiju was removed as Union Law Minister on May 18 and shifted to the insignificant Earth Sciences Ministry, it came as a bolt from the blue. After all, Rijiju was BJP's original face in the North East and the party's three term Lok Sabha MP from Arunachal Pradesh. He was inducted as Minister of State for Youth Affairs & Sports (Indp. Charge) in the Modi:2 government in May 2019. He rose to become the Cabinet Minister with a crucial Law portfolio on July 8, 2021 after Ravi Shankar Prasad was removed among 11 others in a surprising reshuffle. But in May 2023, he was removed as Law Minister after remaining in the limelight for blasting the judiciary left, right & center. The popular belief is that he was shunted out as PM Modi wanted to buy peace with the judiciary in an election year particularly after the BJP's humiliating defeat in the Karnataka Assembly polls. But insiders have a different take. They say that it's a misplaced notion as the reason for his removal from the Law ministry was linked to the surfacing of an audio-tape. No one is sure about the contents of this audio-tape but one thing is clear; that it contained the voice of Kiran Rijiju. Though there was one Whatsapp chat and 12 audio tapes relating to an on-going scam with the Anti-Corruption Bureau (Haryana). But one tape contained the voice of Kiran Rijiju. It is whispered that the tape's contents were related to appointments of judges and were  quite embarrassing. The audio clip has some connection with a CBI case being heard by a Special Judge who was suspended for demanding and accepting bribes. What did Rijiju have to do with it? No one knows. It seems that the scam is deeper than it looks and many heads may roll in the days to come.

Kamraj Plan in offing !

Will PM Modi do in 2023 what India's first Prime Minister Nehru did 60 years ago in 1963? Nehru removed five senior-most Cabinet Ministers and several powerful Chief Ministers in one go and drafted them for party work under what is known as “Kamraj plan”. He himself quit as Chief Minister of Madras state then and was later appointed Congress president. There are reports that PM Modi is also toying with the idea of drafting senior ministers and a couple of Chief Ministers for the party to win 300 plus Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The BJP leadership is extremely worried after the loss of Himachal and Karnataka and aware of its weaknesses in Bihar, Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and a couple of other states. The PM is keen that young faces, women,tribal & down-trodden sections be given more responsibilities to connect with the younger generation. J P Nadda, Amit Shah and B L Santosh, BJP general secretary (Organization) have discussed the situation threadbare and called on the PM to apprise him of the ground-level situation. The coup in Maharashtra on July 2 was part of this plan. PM Modi is giving final touches to his mega rejig plan after giving a pep talk to his Council of Ministers. All of them will be stationed in Delhi after July 7 and waiting with baited breath.  

Stars smiling; finally 

Gone are the days when the former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia was virtually untouchable by powers that be in the BJP in Delhi. She had not been given any position either in the state BJP or in the legislature party for more than four and a half years. She was not part of many of the BJP rallies addressed by central leaders either. But times have changed and she was specially called by BJP president J P Nadda for a long discussion on the prevailing political situation in Rajasthan. When the PM traveled to Rajasthan to address a rally, Vasundhara was not at the podium and was sitting in the front row in the audience. She was invited on the dais and given a seat next to the PM breaking the protocol. When BJP general secretary Arun Singh asked her to speak before the PM's address, she declined saying she had not done any homework and should have been informed earlier. When Amit Shah visited the state to address a rally recently, she sat next to the Union Home Minister and spoke as well. Her opponents in the state and Centre are sulking. So what? The high command seems to have realised that without her being at the helm, the party may not make the cut in the Assembly polls. An announcement is awaited about her new responsibility.