by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
BJP worried as Modi Magic waning
Of 24 states, BJP could win 12,
It lost 12 in four years
Harish Gupta
New Delhi, Jan 6
Reality is donning the BJP strategists as it is preparing for the Lok Sabha polls due this April-May. The BJP's spin doctors may have created a hype about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invincibility during this period.
But the data presented by the party's election strategy group revealed that the BJP thrived on the anti-incumbency sentiments in Assembly polls states after states in between 2014 to 2017. By 2018, the Modi magic started waning. Of the 24 state assembly polls held during the past four years, the BJP could captured only 12 states from Congress and its allies. The BJP was also successful in meting out a humiliating defeat to the CPM's Manik Sarkar government in Tripura.
But the BJP failed to see the writing on the wall in in Goa in 2017 which it failed to win. There was a huge anti-incumbency against the BJP in the state and could win only 13 out of the 40 seats. It was BJP's drawing room skills that paid rich dividends. The same happened in Manipur which the BJP failed to win but formed the government. Delhi and Bihar defeats were considered an aberration by the BJP. But by 2018, the major shocker came when BJP failed to snatch
Karnataka and the anti-incumbency didn't work in favour of Modi-Shah team.
The table showed that if the BJP won 12 states, it failed in equal number of states. The party's core group is worried that the BJP failed to retain its own three states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Though BJP chief Amit Shah has held met party Mps from these three states separately in three batches, he did not ask them why the party lost. He did not give them the reasons of the party's defeat either. He merely directed them that they should now be in the field and work for the victory by highlighting the achievements of the Modi government.
The party strategists point out that the wrong reading of the massive mandate in UP where BJP secured 325 seats on its own made the leadership complacent. It did not crack the whip in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh where workers were saying that leaders must be changed.
In 2017, the BJP snatched Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand from the Congress, UP from SP-BSP and could barely retain Gujrat. But the BJP lost its moorings in 2018 when it failed to win any state except Tripura.
Modi himself tried to explain in an interview recently about these defeats and explained that BJP was not a force in Telangana and Mizoram.
Therefore, the challenges before the leadership are humongous in 2019 in several states. Party strategists admit that Modi's own magic can ensure party's return at the Centre. Otherwise the record of 24 state assembly results does not augur well. is not very placating to the BJP.
Ends
