by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
In Indo-US relations after Donald Trump's entry in White House, the noticeable change is in somewhat diminution of relative stature of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During his September 2014 visit to America, his first after being elected prime minister of India, there was a buoyancy in his movement that reflected in his triumphal address to his diaspora supporters at Madison Square Garden. Erstwhile US President Barack Obama, though apprehensive about Modi's alleged communally divisive inclinations, treated him with care as India remained important in his world view in the context of his pledge to withdraw American soldiers from Afghanistan. He thought Kabul might gain from Delhi's help to rebuild the country ravaged by decades of terrorism. India's importance in his scheme of things added to Modi's stature in America. This was an important platform for popularity in a country with a middle class hooked on the American dream.
Since Trump's election, however, Modi has lost his perkiness. The new US president’s world view is different. He seems non-committal on India but that only prolongs the anxiety of unpredictability. It came to the fore with the killing of Indian techie Srinivas Kuchivotla in Kansas on February 22 by a Navy veteran in a racist outburst. Had it been in the Obama days, the balmy touch of White House would have been promptly extended. But Trump remained silent for almost a whole week. He finally mentioned it in his address to a joint session of the US congress. Clubbing it with hate crimes on the Jewish communities, and couching it in lofty prose, he said it "reminded us that...we are a country that stands united in condemning hate and evil in all of its very ugly forms".
Two things related to President Trump's belated condemnation of the seemingly racist murder stand out, though. First, far from coming easily, it required quiet and high level palavering by India, led by Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, who was camping in Washington DC. Besides, the President's florid words neither include the name of the victim nor his nationality. On the other hand, the death in action of an American army officer in Yemen became, rightly, the subject of high-decibel presidential commiserations, with the slain soldier's widow among guests.
But this is not the only incident that highlights India's shrinking profile on the American radar. In the same speech in Capitol Hill, Trump had an indirect swipe at India for over-taxing the Harley-Davidson US luxury motorcycles. "In one country, they (HD executives who recently met the President) said another country taxed their motorcycle at 100 per cent". The fact is, Harley-Davidson enjoys 50% market share in India of the luxury range of motorcycles with above 800 cc engines. The issue of import duty does not arise for what its Indian subsidiary produces. But 100 per cent import duty is charged for its Completely Built Units (CBU) that account for only 20 per cent of its India sales. If India brings it down to 25 per cent, or so, it will not only pose an existential threat to India's buzzing two-wheeler industry but push the market towards using guzzlers, which is both expensive and polluting. The company's India unit, on the other hand, is flush with cash as its vehicles, mostly in the Rs 5-10 lakh range (the 1,600-cc bike costs 45 lakh rupees) have enough buyers among the new affluent class.
Trump was obviously bullying. With time, such bullying may not remain low key. Indeed it may assume larger dimensions, just as he is doing with China. The saving grace for Modi is that India is, for America, a buyer's nation with little to sell except those who walk on a pair of legs, or the trained and educated Indians joining the American work force. In his speech, Trump spoke about how much he preferred merit-based immigration. But there is no clarity yet on how his administration will review terms of the crucial H1B visa going forward. Will it come with an unrealistically high wage stipulation (more than average domestic wage in the same category)? Can there be additional conditionalities about spouses accompanying?
There are 2.5 million Indian Americans, of whom more than half migrated after 2000. The future safety and prospects of the Indian diaspora in the US holds the key to India's attitude to that country. Earlier, Modi rode on a friendly tailwind that had actually begun much earlier, from the past decade, with large-scale exodus of Indian computer engineers to America. The famous personal rapport between former PM Dr Manmohan Singh and ex-President George W. Bush was an outcome of America's enlarging profile in India's public life, and consequently that of the people of America getting to know the Indians from close quarters, and in large numbers.
But the hand-shake at the people's level may be cut short by the wave of protectionism lashing most Western economies, of which Trump is a symbol. The strategic ties, which were of great value to all post-Second World War US presidents, do not seem to be of much consequence to Trump who looks upon security alliances as "cost" and expects partners to pay for the "help". In Trump's world, all global relations are purely transactional.
It is difficult to guess how India can retain its perceived relevance in America. Most other large nations still have resources that America cannot ignore. But bereft of China's industrial base, Japan's skill and Germany's technological mastery, India may suddenly discover it has to do a lot of hard work to remain a player in the game. India graduated to US’ strategic partner. But Trump has different ideas and there is a danger of India losing the plot. That's quite a bother for Modi who is used to grand reception in Washington. But Modi is not known for putting his foot in the mouth like Trump. He is in no hurry to visit Washington DC either and waiting for his moment to strike. He sees a silver lining in Trump’s battle against “Radical Islamic Terrorism.”
