by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
The assembly elections due in 824 constituencies across four states—Assam,
West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu—and the Union Territory of Puducherry may
have a more than usual quota of surprises. Incumbency can be its reason in only
one state, Assam, where Congress is in power for three terms and Tarun Gogoi
has led the government all these years. There is another factor, tedium,
working in two states: Kerala and West Bengal. It is tedium with the main opposition,
which is CPI(M) in both states. Neither Congress' Omen Chandy nor Trinamool
Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee is a picture of popularity after five years in
power.
But voters are reluctant to welcome CPI(M) back, as its ideological and
political limitations are too well known. And while Tamil Nadu may witness
again familiar tilting board between incumbent chief minister Jayalalitha's
AIADMK and DMK of M. Karunanidhi, the fact is, decades after successfully
fencing out the upper caste, the Dravida parties are caught in a limbo. Having
championed the cause of OBCs in the name of 'Dravida', the two are feeling the
heat of dalit communities who are breaking away from the Dravida parties and
Congress.
If the 2016 round of assembly elections proves significant, it will be for
changes in the configuration of political and social forces. Religion will play
an even larger part in the outcomes than before. Promises and development will
be taken with a fistful of salt, and ideology will take an even more distant
back seat than past elections. Incumbency will play a role, either by pulling
the rug from under some of the players or by pushing a few dangerously close to
the edge of their pedestal. In this round of elections, BJP is likely to be the
biggest beneficiary as it is nowhere in the top league. However, Narendra
Modi's dramatic victory in 2014 has raised BJP's stakes everywhere and has
brought it within the 'winnable' range in many constituencies.
In Assam, fissures in Congress' citadel were evident in 2014 poll when BJP
won half the 14 Lok Sabha seats, leaving just three for Congress. However, as
its aftershocks reached it, the Congress high command was unable to gauge their
impact. Himanta Biswa Sarma, chief minister Gogoi's ace lieutenant, wanted a leadership
change with the top job being offered to him. The high command refused to
entertain his demand (like it slammed the door on rebels in Arunachal Pradesh
against chief minister Nabam Tuki, leading to the present mess), resulting in
Sarma joining BJP with nine MLAs and a large number of local level party
chiefs. And, with MoS Youth Affairs Sarbananda Sonowal named as BJP's chief
ministerial candidate, it gave BJP's campaign a quantum leap. Sonowal is a
former leader of AGP, the party that preceded Congress in power, with roots in
the state's indigenous people and their anxieties based on immigration from
neighbouring Bangladesh.
With 34.2 per cent Muslim population, the state's politics is marked by
communal distrust. Maulana Badruddin Ajmal's AIAUDF, which is only nominally
different from Jinnah's Muslim League, won 14.8 per cent votes and three
seats—as many as the Congress could. The post-2014 shifts in global Islamic
politics can only sharpen the polarisation. And that can be to the advantage of
BJP.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's TMC was relatively successful in blocking
the 'Modi wave'; it won 34 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats but BJP grabbed
over 16 per cent votes and won two seats. Since then, however, there have been
efforts for opposition parties forging anti-Mamata coalition, but not with much
success. CPI(M) and Congress, though both on decline, face problems in coming
together as they are main rivals in Kerala. Besides, TMC, anxious to see that
its Muslim votes do not diminish (Muslim population in the state: 27.1 per
cent), has kept a hot line open to Congress leadership for alliance. But
politics in Bengal is more polarised than 2014, with a series of incidents
involving violent outbursts in Muslim-majority districts, notably Malda. BJP in
the state is now led by an RSS veteran, and the RSS shakhas have doubled since
2014. It will not be surprising if BJP ends up with a double digit tally.
In Kerala, the recent scams being reported from the state, some of which
involving Congress chief minister Oomen Chandy, should make the race tough for
him, but not impossible. Chandy is an astute politician who imposed a ban on
liquor trade when he found the state's ezhava (toddy tapper) community, a
traditional Left Front supporter, was poised to defect to BJP, a party with
little social base in the district. In 2013, Modi, in his campaign trail,
attended a function to commemorate ezhava spiritual leader Sri Narayana Guru at
Sivagiri and spoke about "political untouchability" of sections of
the populace. His words had deep resonance in the community. The ban order on
liquor, in addition to achieving its social objective, is aimed at giving the
ezhava community a confusing push that may make it hard to make up its mind on
whom to turn to in a crisis-CPI(M) or BJP. The Congress-led UDF generally gets
the larger share of Muslim (27 per cent) and Christian (16 per rcent) votes. It
is to be seen if Kerala, after the push to ezhava votes, still follows its
historical pattern of alternating between UDF and LDF every five years, or
gives UDF an unexpectedly large tenure.
The outcome of the 2016 assembly
polls may tell if empowerment is flowing further down, or staying frozen.
In Tamil Nadu, which has one crore young voters, most politicians are
trying to be different. Ambumani Ramadoss of PMK, clad in a natty dress, has
coined a new campaign phrase: “change, progress, Ambumani”. Even M.K.Stalin,
heir apparent to Karunanidhi of DMK, has discarded the familiar white veshti
and shirt in favour of trousers and sneakers and also talks of “change” being
in the “air”. But there is not much in it that is different of its traditional
caste-oriented politics. Karunanidhi, in his poll speeches, is focusing on low
OBC representation in government jobs. Ramadoss too is targeting Vanniyars and
Thevars, the state’s OBC equivalent. Neither BJP nor regional parties have any
working access to dalit sections who are nearly a fifth of the state’s
population. In Tamil Nadu, as in most of the country, Independence brought
empowerment to the upper castes. It percolated down to OBCs with Mandal
Commission in the 1990’s. The outcome of the 2016 assembly polls may tell if
empowerment is flowing further down, or staying frozen.
