Even Nitin Gadkari believes Bihar Assembly polls will be a referendum and decider
Harish Gupta
All eyes are set on the battle of Waterloo fought exactly 200 years ago in 1815. Waterloo was far away in Belgium which was part of UK. Similarly, Patna may be hundreds of miles away from the national Capital. But the outcome of Assembly polls there are capable of changing the political course.
I had said in this column a week before the Delhi Assembly poll in early 2015 “If Modi’s armada loses in Delhi, it may still not be his Waterloo. But, with elections in most of the states in the Gangetic plains (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) due in the next couple of years, it may be the beginning of the end.”
The life had never been the same for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Man Friday BJP president Amit Shah after the Delhi’s loss. In May 2014, BJP’s Lok Sabha victory had put its profile, and also that of its charismatic leader Narendra Modi, to such lofty height that AAP seemed a Lilliputian in comparison. From then on, Modi’s electoral column triumphed everywhere—Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, even J&K. Kejriwal emerged like a hero in award winning film ‘Jolly, LLB’. The film was about a lawyer from small town who arrives in Delhi for a better career but fights, and wins, a tough and dangerous legal battle for a group of pavement dwellers mowed down by a rich man’s son driving drunk his SUV. Most Delhi voters fancy that they’ll have a saviour in Kejriwal. And the BJP ended up with merely three seats for his party.
Though recent opinion polls suggest Modi continues to be most popular leaders in the country, the BJP’s graph is down several notches. Despite the untiring efforts put in by the Prime Minister during the past six months, global factors helping the Indian economy with crude prices down to $45 a barrel and other initiatives, the “achchhe din” are still a far cry. Modi’s political blunder of falling into the trap of amending the Land bill soon after coming to power (Who laid the trap for him is another story) cost him dearly. Finally, he buried it, and wisely so, taking everybody by surprise. But the Land Bill laid the foundation stone of unity amongst the so-called secular forces. The failed Monsoon session of Parliament is the product of this new grand alliance. The irony is that such grand alliances used to be formed against the Congress since 1967 by the BJP (erstwhile Jana Sangh), Lok Dal, Swatantra Party, SSP, PSP etc. In 2015, it’s a reverse grand alliance against the BJP and Bihar is the first experiment of this new found bon homie. If one looks at the history of such alliances against the Congress; be it SVD governments of 1967-69 era of the Janata Party of 1977 or Janata Dal-BJP- Left unity in 1989 or 1996-97, they all failed eroding people’s faith in coalition politics. It was only in 1999 that Atal Behari Vajpayee succeeded in providing a stable non-Congress grand alliance called the NDA. But the BJP failed to hold its horses in 2004 due to its own failures paving the way of return of the Congress rule. The BJP swept to power in ten years later on the massive anti-incumbency wave and fragmentation of secular parties. Modi’s personal charisma added 100 Lok Sabha seats in the BJP kitty, admit Advani acolytes privately. Had Advani or Sushma Swaraj or Rajnath Singh been projected as BJP’s PM candidate, the party would not have crossed the 180 seats mark. If one looks closely at Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana, the BJP won them as rivals went their own way. Had the Congress and NCP contested Assembly polls in Maharashtra together, the story would have been different. The same can be said about Jharkhand where Congress-JMM-RJD parted ways allowing the BJP a free run. In Haryana, the story was no different.
But Bihar will be the “Mother of all polls”. Its not battle between the “Maths and the Rath” as some analysts argue. If one goes by the mathematics of the Lok Sabha 2014 polls, BJP has already lost the polls. The JD (U), RJD, Congress, NCP had polled 46% of popular votes in May 2014 LS Polls. Since they contested separately, they ended up getting only 9 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA walked away with 31 seats despite getting 39% votes. Neither the hundreds of Raths being pumped into the BJP campaign by Amit Shah can turn an election. One will have to assess the situation on the ground. No one can say for sure the damage Jitan Ram Manjhi will cause to Nitish Kumar or a Pappu Yadav to the RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. The rebels of RJD, JD (U) and even Congress are joining the BJP which has adopted an “Open-Door Policy” in the state.
Modi has also resorted to his original formula by not naming a Chief Ministerial candidate in Bihar. He made the sole exception in Delhi by projecting Kiran Bedi and lost. Now he has put his own prestige and popularity at stake and directly communicating with the people of Bihar extensively.
Therefore, Bihar’s poll will be a watershed. Its test of the first grand alliance not only against the BJP but against Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally. The failed Monsoon session of Parliament should not be attributed to the failure of Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkiah Naidu’s skills and political experience or the ruling party’s arrogance. The Congress decided to play the second fiddle after “Congress-Mukt Delhi”. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi is doing everything under the Sun to make this reverse grand alliance against the BJP and Modi succeed.
Union Surface Transport & Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari echoed similar sentiments when he termed Bihar elections a referendum of Modi government last week. Though he qualified to add that in a democracy every election is an issue of prestige of the party and its prime minister. But after the defeat during the Delhi polls, the Bihar polls be decider, he said.
The pollsters have, however, stayed away so far from speculating who has the edge in Bihar. They do not want to burn their fingers too early in the day. But the betting odds are still high on BJP. The reason is obvious: gamblers place their stakes on past records, not on future uncertainties.
(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)
Harish Gupta
All eyes are set on the battle of Waterloo fought exactly 200 years ago in 1815. Waterloo was far away in Belgium which was part of UK. Similarly, Patna may be hundreds of miles away from the national Capital. But the outcome of Assembly polls there are capable of changing the political course.
I had said in this column a week before the Delhi Assembly poll in early 2015 “If Modi’s armada loses in Delhi, it may still not be his Waterloo. But, with elections in most of the states in the Gangetic plains (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) due in the next couple of years, it may be the beginning of the end.”
The life had never been the same for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Man Friday BJP president Amit Shah after the Delhi’s loss. In May 2014, BJP’s Lok Sabha victory had put its profile, and also that of its charismatic leader Narendra Modi, to such lofty height that AAP seemed a Lilliputian in comparison. From then on, Modi’s electoral column triumphed everywhere—Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, even J&K. Kejriwal emerged like a hero in award winning film ‘Jolly, LLB’. The film was about a lawyer from small town who arrives in Delhi for a better career but fights, and wins, a tough and dangerous legal battle for a group of pavement dwellers mowed down by a rich man’s son driving drunk his SUV. Most Delhi voters fancy that they’ll have a saviour in Kejriwal. And the BJP ended up with merely three seats for his party.
Though recent opinion polls suggest Modi continues to be most popular leaders in the country, the BJP’s graph is down several notches. Despite the untiring efforts put in by the Prime Minister during the past six months, global factors helping the Indian economy with crude prices down to $45 a barrel and other initiatives, the “achchhe din” are still a far cry. Modi’s political blunder of falling into the trap of amending the Land bill soon after coming to power (Who laid the trap for him is another story) cost him dearly. Finally, he buried it, and wisely so, taking everybody by surprise. But the Land Bill laid the foundation stone of unity amongst the so-called secular forces. The failed Monsoon session of Parliament is the product of this new grand alliance. The irony is that such grand alliances used to be formed against the Congress since 1967 by the BJP (erstwhile Jana Sangh), Lok Dal, Swatantra Party, SSP, PSP etc. In 2015, it’s a reverse grand alliance against the BJP and Bihar is the first experiment of this new found bon homie. If one looks at the history of such alliances against the Congress; be it SVD governments of 1967-69 era of the Janata Party of 1977 or Janata Dal-BJP- Left unity in 1989 or 1996-97, they all failed eroding people’s faith in coalition politics. It was only in 1999 that Atal Behari Vajpayee succeeded in providing a stable non-Congress grand alliance called the NDA. But the BJP failed to hold its horses in 2004 due to its own failures paving the way of return of the Congress rule. The BJP swept to power in ten years later on the massive anti-incumbency wave and fragmentation of secular parties. Modi’s personal charisma added 100 Lok Sabha seats in the BJP kitty, admit Advani acolytes privately. Had Advani or Sushma Swaraj or Rajnath Singh been projected as BJP’s PM candidate, the party would not have crossed the 180 seats mark. If one looks closely at Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana, the BJP won them as rivals went their own way. Had the Congress and NCP contested Assembly polls in Maharashtra together, the story would have been different. The same can be said about Jharkhand where Congress-JMM-RJD parted ways allowing the BJP a free run. In Haryana, the story was no different.
But Bihar will be the “Mother of all polls”. Its not battle between the “Maths and the Rath” as some analysts argue. If one goes by the mathematics of the Lok Sabha 2014 polls, BJP has already lost the polls. The JD (U), RJD, Congress, NCP had polled 46% of popular votes in May 2014 LS Polls. Since they contested separately, they ended up getting only 9 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA walked away with 31 seats despite getting 39% votes. Neither the hundreds of Raths being pumped into the BJP campaign by Amit Shah can turn an election. One will have to assess the situation on the ground. No one can say for sure the damage Jitan Ram Manjhi will cause to Nitish Kumar or a Pappu Yadav to the RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. The rebels of RJD, JD (U) and even Congress are joining the BJP which has adopted an “Open-Door Policy” in the state.
Modi has also resorted to his original formula by not naming a Chief Ministerial candidate in Bihar. He made the sole exception in Delhi by projecting Kiran Bedi and lost. Now he has put his own prestige and popularity at stake and directly communicating with the people of Bihar extensively.
Therefore, Bihar’s poll will be a watershed. Its test of the first grand alliance not only against the BJP but against Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally. The failed Monsoon session of Parliament should not be attributed to the failure of Parliamentary Affairs Minister M Venkiah Naidu’s skills and political experience or the ruling party’s arrogance. The Congress decided to play the second fiddle after “Congress-Mukt Delhi”. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi is doing everything under the Sun to make this reverse grand alliance against the BJP and Modi succeed.
Union Surface Transport & Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari echoed similar sentiments when he termed Bihar elections a referendum of Modi government last week. Though he qualified to add that in a democracy every election is an issue of prestige of the party and its prime minister. But after the defeat during the Delhi polls, the Bihar polls be decider, he said.
The pollsters have, however, stayed away so far from speculating who has the edge in Bihar. They do not want to burn their fingers too early in the day. But the betting odds are still high on BJP. The reason is obvious: gamblers place their stakes on past records, not on future uncertainties.
(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)
