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If Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a 'honeymoon period', it was more with the people at large than his political opponents. His prime opponent, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, remained uncivil to him not only from his electoral victory in May but since the beginning of Modi's rise, when she hurled the abuse, Maut ka Saudagar, and saw it boomerang on her own party's electoral prospects in Gujarat.
Nor did the minor opposition players on the stage relent for a moment in their mission to block all moves at clearing the mess that the UPA had left on all fronts—be it retrospective tax regime, handling of issues reported by CAG or daily judicial sermons. There was little respect shown to Modi for his winning the poll sweepstakes, the simple majority won by his party BJP in the Lower House being constantly ridiculed because of its low tally of 31 per cent votes. While most people who held a stake in the country's development welcomed Modi for his strong pitch on governance and promise to reform the economy, it made little difference to the opposition who were never reconciled to the new Prime Minister being an 'outsider'.
Modi waited for six months and spent the time creating a global image in his whirlwind tours abroad. Be it in the US, Australia or Japan or building bridges with SAARC nations, there was a buzz that India, the second most populous country in the word, was waking up from its slumber to which it had long been consigned. First, it was hoped that India would soon regain its stride of economic growth, something it lost after the western world, the US in particular, regulated monetary policy to curb investments in the emerging economies. In the process, Modi took some U turns also as detailed in the Congress hand book as to how he continues with Aadhar, Direct Benefit Transfer, MNREGA etc launched by the UPA. The second buzz about India that Modi raised is that the country will stick to the WTO norms and allow its own trade policies to be liberalized. Third: it was hoped that Modi would exercise his clout to make India legally, or at least morally, committed to bring down its greenhouse gas emission.
There has been little progress on any of these issues as the government's lawmaking ability is hopelessly circumscribed by its minority in the Upper House. Of its 245 members, the government has direct control over only 59. The bill on pension and insurance reform is most eagerly awaited as it raises FDI limit in the insurance sector to 49 per cent. A question mark hangs on its fate.
Why everybody is
getting restless
within 6 months
It is obvious that much of the global, and domestic, expectation from Modi depends on his skill to get most parliamentarians on his side. But instead there are increasing signs that opposition parties are ganging up against him. Recently, six parties that profess socialism have proposed their merger because, as Sharad Yadav, president of JD(U), one of its constituents, put it, "we are faced with a new political reality that has emerged because of the vacuum that resulted from the miserable failure of UPA-ll". The left parties too are in regular touch with the group-of-six (it includes the unflappable Lalu Yadav), and the Congress too wants to stay in business as it is partnering the other opposition parties in every move to baulk the proceedings, including appearing in Parliament with a black cloth tied on face.
However, despite non-cooperation by his enemies to reform the laws, Modi can keep his global image untarnished to a large extent if he sounds positive on trade and climate change. The huge Indian delegation that has gone to Lima in Peru last week, seems to have impressive arguments but has little to offer to raise hope that the country is ready to accept an agreement at the next major UN Climate Conference in Paris next year. While the US and China have already agreed on specific time frames to reduce emissions, India stands embarrassingly alone. It may promise to raise its solar energy from 10,000 MW to 100,000 MW in five years, but that requires both fund and relaxation in Intellectual Property Rights norms. Nuclear energy as another clean option for which Japan and Australia have hinted at the required technology transfer but are yet to walk the talk.
I think Modi's real problem is that he has somehow got caught up between his dependence on the West, for that's where technology and capital are available, and his growing political opposition back home. Earlier this year, Modi had to do a lot of hand-wringing on the Food Security Act to thwart the Bali round of WTO talks. But the fact is, it happened because of strong resistance against trade agreements from Swadeshi Jagran Manch, a wing of the RSS.
It is RSS, and its sibling, VHP, who believe that BJP's electoral victory is their handiwork, and, with Modi in power, now is the time to realize their Quixotic ideas about 'Hindu rashtra.' Though the RSS had agreed to give Modi a clear life-line of two years to nurture his development agenda. But somewhere the goal post is changing. Otherwise, why shall Modi say at an election rally in Udhampur, “Opposition parties alone are not opposing me. Even some of those sitting in the government are opposing me as well. I know why they are doing …. Because I have tightened their screws.” He did not elaborate. But it was clear that something is wrong somewhere within his own party and the government. It is at somebody’s prodding that a foul-mouthed village woman like Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, or a gas bag like Giriraj Singh, were to be made ministers. Or the government is made to pursue such crazy policies like making Sanskrit compulsory in schools during the middle of the season or pampering the patriarchal khap panchayats that encourage honor killings by a Chief Minister or a senior minister publicly pleading Bhagwat Gita be declared as country’s national book.
As Modi’s enemies within push him away from the responsible citizenry, and global world opinion, his enemies in the opposition make circles above as they smell blood.
(The author is
National Editor,
Lokmat group)
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