Jaitley, India's Centre-Right face?

By Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The five-year gap between general elections may be compared with a long flight. Most of the journey has very few surprises, except the plane hitting weather pockets once in a while, or the occasional announcement from the captain's cabin. Real surprises wait as the plane descends for landing. The topography of the new place—its chequerboard of roads, parks, buildings and hills—fills the ken.

As we are about to touch the runway to Election 2014, the maze of possibilities on the ground appear more complex than what was perceived. Till a couple of months back, it appeared a two-horse race between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, with the betting odds almost monopolised by Modi. But the game has now changed. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its mercurial leader Arvind Kejriwal is a dark horse from nowhere. He has not only upset the existing equation of forces but has planted new ideas among not just political parties but voters as well. He has defended the action of a Delhi minister under him who targeted a home in the dead of night, with a motley band of his supporters, on the charge that its inmates were indulging in prostitution and doing drugs. In the end, nothing was proved but Kejriwal argued, not unreasonably, that the police hadn't done its work, nor would it do so as long as it remained under the Central Government and a Home Minister who sends slips to appoint SHOs. Other parties called it "vigilantism", but Kejriwal says it's rubbish.

Congress is struggling for an image makeover, with Rahul Gandhi saying he'd crowd-source the party manifesto and choose half the party's chief ministers from among women (Prithwiraj Chavan must be trembling). And, clearly spurred by AAP's anti-corruption crusade, UPA-ll is ready to unroll a long list of anti-corruption bills, including one that makes the bribe giver equally culpable as the bribe-taking public servant, and another bill to protect whistleblowers.

But it's all a day late and a dollar short. UPA-ll has suffered erosion of public confidence on a scale that makes it irretrievable. Will Modi be able to fill the gap that Congress may leave, yet add on to its existing strength? In other words, if Congress loses 80-100 seats from its 2009 tally, can BJP aspire to bag it all in addition to retaining its tally of 116 in tact?

Except the committed, and the paid, there may not be too many to bet on such a grand finale. The AAP challenge has made it even more unlikely by raising the issues that nobody took seriously. Take for example its justification of anarchic behaviour on the ground that the proponents of ordered society have looked the other way from corruption all the while. Such logic may not find many takers in the chambers of commerce or bar libraries but those earning below two dollars a day, who numbered 68.8 per cent in 2010 (Source: World Bank), surely will, as they're no sticklers for due process and are happy to see the "corrupt" SHO or the Circle Officer gone kaput. It is this mob mentality that may spell the doom for many regional or caste-based parties, like BSP, SP and RJD. This is what Mamata Banerjee did in West Bengal to over-throw the Left. Therefore, it is unlikely that any single party will win in more than 175-180 seats, at least in the present political scenario.

If BJP obtains 180, or close to it, most regional parties that will withstand the AAP onslaught will have their choice clearly set—between Kejriwal's 'mobocracy' and Modi's structured programme of governance. That may pave the way for NDA-2 under Narendra Modi. But if BJP ends up in the grey area between 150 and 175, yet becomes the single largest party, it still doesn't extinguish its chances of leading the government after a 10-year gap; but Modi is clearly not the person who can lead such a bandwagon of diversity.

The first name that comes to mind as leader of NDA with 150 plus members is that of Arun Jaitley. A leading lawyer, and endowed with a remarkable ability to resolve conflicts through negotiation, Jaitley is in fact the best qualified to emerge as the 'centre-right' face of the nation, or a liberal conservative. After A. B. Vajpayee's disappearance from the political stage, India lacked a nuanced approach to growth in the neo-liberal context, giving rise to populism as 'ideology'. Sushma Swaraj, Manohar Parrikar and Rajnath Singh who batted vigorously for Narendra Modi, may also chip in.

All bets are off on Congress if it cannot regain its position as the leading single party, or at least only a few seats short of BJP. If it sinks below 110-120 with BJP marginally above it, it will mean a paradigm shift in Indian politics. But unexpected things do happen in life. If it does AAP is the natural gainer. Kejriwal has already signalled that he is not averse to contesting for Lok Sabha polls though continues to pretend that he will not be PM. That remains, in the language of Donald Rumsfeld, the "unknown unknown". However, if Congress does fire on all twelve cylinders to reach the top of the heap, it may get the golden chance to form a UPA-3 government, but with several riders. This time round, much of the federalist demands will require to be met—like acceding to most regional leaders’ long-standing demand for 50 per cent share of Central revenues, and, above all, making the government driven from front instead of the Congress headquarters. Rahul Gandhi, in his own words, has said that he has on his side and willing to wait until 2019 and beyond. It simply means Rahul will chose his “Manmohan Singh” from amongst the heads of 10 regional and other parties who are hoping to don the mantle in a hung Parliament in 2014.

But that is the Congress loyalist’s hope against hope. If it becomes a reality, he can hug the AICC delegate at the recent party conclave in Delhi, who, after Rahul’s impassioned speech, raised both hands and cried, “Pappu pass ho gya”.

With Rahul 

stepping aside,

Dashaavatars 

are waiting to be PM

(The author is National Editor 

of Lokmat group 

and based in Delhi)