Modi decided to buy Bullets two months before the Assembly polls. Can he get 4 states to BJP ?
Those in the BJP who sincerely wish Narendra Modi to lead the nation after the 2014 poll have no reason to celebrate the announcement of his name as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate in such tearing hurry, more than six months before the general election is due, and with a couple of months still to go for the bellwether assembly elections in four mainline states and in the north-eastern state of Mizoram, where the Congress is in power.
“The timing (of Modi’s name being announced) is just right”, party’s chief strategist Arun Jaitley, respected for his measured words, observed in a recent media interview. Jaitley, former Law Minister and an eminent silk, was economical on stating the reason behind the early timing of the announcement. In putting up Modi for the top post, the party has left L. K. Advani, the octogenarian common mentor of most who’re now running the party, speechless in indignation. Many others, like Sushma Swaraj and Murali Manohar Joshi, have been overpowered or have chosen to swim with the tide. And so have the two current BJP chief ministers of poll-bound states, Shivraj Singh Chauhan of Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh. But Advani stood his ground at least on September 13 and questioned Rajnath Singh how the tide in favour of Modi was measured and why this tearing hurry to anoint him before the Assembly polls. Much of their unstated anxiety of these leaders stems from the fact that BJP may not find the November assembly polls sailing smoothly for it. Reverses in the last round of assembly elections with Modi in driver’s seat may rudely jolt the party’s chances to govern the country after being in the doghouse for a full decade. Even those who fancy Modi as the knight in shining armour who would fix India’s myriad governance problems in the snap of a finger are not so sure that their party might do a hat-trick in Madhya Pradesh, win back Rajasthan and show the door to Delhi’s Congress chief minister Sheila Dikshit, a veteran of three consecutive victories. Even in Chhattisgarh, the prospects of Raman Singh hinges on how Congress deals with Ajit Jogi. The scale is not tipping as much against the Congress as the opposition and a section of the media wish to believe. In Chhattisgarh, there was a let-us-look-the-other-way understanding between the state government and the Maoist desperadoes. In the 2008 election, such understanding led to telling anomalies, like voters’ turnout ratio jumping in pockets in the Bastar region worst hit by the insurgency from 20-25 per cent in the previous elections to over 80 per cent. But two things are now working against the cosy nexus. First, the gruesome Maoist slaying earlier this year of state Congress chief Nand Kishore Patel, salwa judum architect Mahendra Karma and 22 of their party colleagues has created an emotional backlash whose intensity must have baffled both BJP and Maoists, in their own ways. Guerrilla squads usually run away from places where local villagers are no longer supportive. That’s what happened to the killers of Patel and others. Last week, as the same squad fled to Odisha, security forces felled 14 of them. All it indicates is that a sympathy factor in favour of Congress is working in the severely. Moreover, Maoist clout in the state, particularly in the extensive Bastar area, its citadel, is about to loosen due to the Centre’s new land acquisition law that not only promises a greatly enhanced compensation for acquired land but rewards farm workers dependent on the land. Union Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh may not be boasting without reason by claiming that this law will remove the fear of Maoism from political space. In neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, on the other hand, Congress has, for a decade, been a victim of having too many ‘leaders’ with their eyes on Delhi, and therefore too few workers on the ground who could mobilize supporters. This time round Congress top leadership seems turning round to field Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia as its chief ministerial candidate. The Scindia name has its own magnetism in the feudal and conservative state. While there is no guarantee that it will work against BJP’s Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, a popular figure, it is still clear that a third successive saffron victory this year is not taken as given. In Rajasthan too, the contest is a close call. Congress’ Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is a social worker who worked in the refugee camps of West Bengal during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. But he’s a political lightweight who has alienated the party’s traditional vote bank, the Jats. But Gehlot has consolidated his hold on the state’s dalit, particularly on the issue of reservation in promotion. A bagful of welfare schemes including free health care has retrieved some lost ground and much of BJP’s chances depends on how deftly its leader Vasundhara Raje Scindia plays her pieces on the desert state’s chequerboard of castes. Can Modi bring in vital 2% vote share deficit ? In Delhi, BJP is unquestionably a divided house. Besides, despite Dikshit’s very long incumbency, the city has acquired too many things in the past decade that can dazzle visitors and residents alike—spanking roads, flyovers, metro, etc. Narendra Modi could walk into the fighting arena erect and steady if his party waited two more months. If BJP did well in the assembly poll, its credit could go to the party, which was to Modi’s advantage anyway. But if BJP gets a drubbing in the states, Modi will have egg on his face. It is certainly not the best makeup to wear in a parliamentary election. Yet Modi decided to buy the bullets. Surely, the party was not sure of itself and opted to be Modi-fied. (The author is National Editor of the Lokmat group of newspapers based in Delhi)
“The timing (of Modi’s name being announced) is just right”, party’s chief strategist Arun Jaitley, respected for his measured words, observed in a recent media interview. Jaitley, former Law Minister and an eminent silk, was economical on stating the reason behind the early timing of the announcement. In putting up Modi for the top post, the party has left L. K. Advani, the octogenarian common mentor of most who’re now running the party, speechless in indignation. Many others, like Sushma Swaraj and Murali Manohar Joshi, have been overpowered or have chosen to swim with the tide. And so have the two current BJP chief ministers of poll-bound states, Shivraj Singh Chauhan of Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh. But Advani stood his ground at least on September 13 and questioned Rajnath Singh how the tide in favour of Modi was measured and why this tearing hurry to anoint him before the Assembly polls. Much of their unstated anxiety of these leaders stems from the fact that BJP may not find the November assembly polls sailing smoothly for it. Reverses in the last round of assembly elections with Modi in driver’s seat may rudely jolt the party’s chances to govern the country after being in the doghouse for a full decade. Even those who fancy Modi as the knight in shining armour who would fix India’s myriad governance problems in the snap of a finger are not so sure that their party might do a hat-trick in Madhya Pradesh, win back Rajasthan and show the door to Delhi’s Congress chief minister Sheila Dikshit, a veteran of three consecutive victories. Even in Chhattisgarh, the prospects of Raman Singh hinges on how Congress deals with Ajit Jogi. The scale is not tipping as much against the Congress as the opposition and a section of the media wish to believe. In Chhattisgarh, there was a let-us-look-the-other-way understanding between the state government and the Maoist desperadoes. In the 2008 election, such understanding led to telling anomalies, like voters’ turnout ratio jumping in pockets in the Bastar region worst hit by the insurgency from 20-25 per cent in the previous elections to over 80 per cent. But two things are now working against the cosy nexus. First, the gruesome Maoist slaying earlier this year of state Congress chief Nand Kishore Patel, salwa judum architect Mahendra Karma and 22 of their party colleagues has created an emotional backlash whose intensity must have baffled both BJP and Maoists, in their own ways. Guerrilla squads usually run away from places where local villagers are no longer supportive. That’s what happened to the killers of Patel and others. Last week, as the same squad fled to Odisha, security forces felled 14 of them. All it indicates is that a sympathy factor in favour of Congress is working in the severely. Moreover, Maoist clout in the state, particularly in the extensive Bastar area, its citadel, is about to loosen due to the Centre’s new land acquisition law that not only promises a greatly enhanced compensation for acquired land but rewards farm workers dependent on the land. Union Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh may not be boasting without reason by claiming that this law will remove the fear of Maoism from political space. In neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, on the other hand, Congress has, for a decade, been a victim of having too many ‘leaders’ with their eyes on Delhi, and therefore too few workers on the ground who could mobilize supporters. This time round Congress top leadership seems turning round to field Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia as its chief ministerial candidate. The Scindia name has its own magnetism in the feudal and conservative state. While there is no guarantee that it will work against BJP’s Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, a popular figure, it is still clear that a third successive saffron victory this year is not taken as given. In Rajasthan too, the contest is a close call. Congress’ Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is a social worker who worked in the refugee camps of West Bengal during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. But he’s a political lightweight who has alienated the party’s traditional vote bank, the Jats. But Gehlot has consolidated his hold on the state’s dalit, particularly on the issue of reservation in promotion. A bagful of welfare schemes including free health care has retrieved some lost ground and much of BJP’s chances depends on how deftly its leader Vasundhara Raje Scindia plays her pieces on the desert state’s chequerboard of castes. Can Modi bring in vital 2% vote share deficit ? In Delhi, BJP is unquestionably a divided house. Besides, despite Dikshit’s very long incumbency, the city has acquired too many things in the past decade that can dazzle visitors and residents alike—spanking roads, flyovers, metro, etc. Narendra Modi could walk into the fighting arena erect and steady if his party waited two more months. If BJP did well in the assembly poll, its credit could go to the party, which was to Modi’s advantage anyway. But if BJP gets a drubbing in the states, Modi will have egg on his face. It is certainly not the best makeup to wear in a parliamentary election. Yet Modi decided to buy the bullets. Surely, the party was not sure of itself and opted to be Modi-fied. (The author is National Editor of the Lokmat group of newspapers based in Delhi)
