Those betting on Modi, have started hedging their stakes.
Has anything changed on the racecourse
On Narendra Modi’s engagement with Uttarakhand flood
relief operations, which has become a contentious issue, I am citing two
opinions appearing recently in newspapers:
“…he (Modi) synergized resources, energized BJP workers to
get going, not just for immediate relief but also long-term
reconstruction work…There was genuine spirit of cooperation and
teamwork. The Congress party is understandably upset because its chief
minister has proved a disaster, its party machinery is in disarray,
Congress Seva Dal workers are nowhere in sight, Rahul Gandhi’s Youth
Brigade is clueless even in routine situations, leave alone know how to
face a crisis like the Uttarakhand deluge. That is the reality of the
Uttarakhand relief operation led by Narendra Modi”
-Madhu Kishwar in The Economic Times, 26 June 2013.
“In every area the Modi narrative is a tale of bluster and bluff. But his Himalayan miracle is a barefaced cynical lie”
--Abhek Barman in The Times of India, 26 June 2013.
In fact it is a significant phenomenon. On Indian politics
in general, and Modi in particular, it is not only media but most
stakeholders who are speaking in two voices. Nor is it anything but
unexpected. For Modi is nothing short of an odds-maker’s nightmare. If
one is to continue using the betting parlance, the odds are not
difficult to offer to the parties. Congress, it is well-known, has a
long incumbency weighing heavily on it. Its handicap is compounded by a
procession of failures: a battered public image due to corruption
scandals, raging inflation, failure to create sufficient jobs, and a
rather inexplicable lack of clarity on whether Rahul Gandhi, the
42-year-old dynast, will actually lead the government from the front
seat if his party gets the numbers.
BJP, the main adversary, is even more badly hobbled by its
isolation. Nearly a decade after the NDA that it spearheaded ruled at
the Center, it is now left with no trustworthy ally except the Shiv Sena
in Maharashtra and Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, both sub-nationalist
entities. Even their support isn’t unqualified. Besides, while the
party’s traditional ‘Hindutva’ card is at least two decades past its
sell-by date, no new thinking has emerged from its leaders about how to
tackle the problems staring the country in the face, such as rising
crime and poor governance. To top it all, it has virtually no presence
in the entire southern peninsula barring Karnataka, nor in a large state
like West Bengal.
Between Congress and BJP, the odds, therefore, are evenly balanced. It could be a contest, at best, between two slow horses.
But Modi’s possible entry into the race has upset an
otherwise staid competition between two feckless contestants, as
BJP-plus-Modi can be an explosive mixture.
He is another pair of shoes. After the 2002 Gujarat
communal carnage, when the state administration was under his charge,
and he was accused of being blatantly partisan, he was thought to be a
liability for his party. The legal slugfest that is going on between
Modi and the government of Dr Manmohan Singh on charges concerning the
riots and fake encounters is continuing with no respite. With CBI
zeroing on him and his camp followers, the Modi-led BJP is set for
unexpected explosions.
The fact that Modi did win state elections repeatedly
against such odds created a mystique about him. And what has made him
decidedly larger than his party is the fact that he has successfully
transformed his image from being cruel to tough—a no-nonsense
administrator under whom Gujarat witnessed new and large investments.
True that many of these had existed long before Modi, but his style of
firm management instilled confidence in the hearts of investors, leading
to modernization, diversification and expansion of existing businesses.
Besides, the state saw no further riots after 2002.
All this, compounded by powerful media hype, have created
the myth of Modi’s governance skill. The more the UPA has faltered in
governance, the higher has Modi’s rating risen as a tough manager. He
has undoubtedly gained by default. Nobody knows if he has the competence
to rule at the Center. The recent revolt of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish
Kumar against Modi merely being named the chief of the party’s campaign
committee proves that others too may think that association with him
could darken their doors. Yet BJP has decided to bet on Modi for the
next Lok Sabha polls. Heads Modi wins, tails Rajnath Singh loses as he
did in 2009.
Reverting to the metaphor of gambling, Modi-led BJP is a
typical dark-horse in the racetrack. Odds are surely turning against
UPA. But they are in no way being stacked in Modi’s favor, as a dark
horse is one about whom very little is known. No bookmaker will readily
accept bets on him. Nor is it safe to bet against him. Perhaps this
explains a critical article in one publication of a group, and a
friendly one in a sister publication. A good hedge, for sure. The
absence of big names at the recent CII conclave addressed by Modi in
Mumbai is another confirmation of uncertain times. After the hype, its
hedging now.
(The author is National Editor of Lokmat group of newspapers)
