Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Modi: The Dark Horse

Those betting on Modi, have started hedging their stakes. 
Has anything changed on the racecourse

On Narendra Modi’s engagement with  Uttarakhand flood relief operations, which has become a contentious issue, I am citing two opinions appearing recently in newspapers:
“…he (Modi) synergized resources, energized BJP workers to get going, not just for immediate relief but also long-term reconstruction work…There was genuine spirit of cooperation and teamwork. The Congress party is understandably upset because its chief minister has proved a disaster, its party machinery is in disarray, Congress Seva Dal workers are nowhere in sight, Rahul Gandhi’s Youth Brigade is clueless even in routine situations, leave alone know how to face a crisis like the Uttarakhand deluge. That is the reality of the Uttarakhand relief operation led by Narendra Modi”
-Madhu Kishwar in The Economic Times, 26 June 2013.
“In every area the Modi narrative is a tale of bluster and bluff. But his Himalayan miracle is a barefaced cynical lie”
--Abhek Barman in The Times of India, 26 June 2013. 
The difference between the two verdicts on Modi is polar, yet they appeared on the same day in two newspapers belonging to the same publishing house, Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited. The ‘negative’ article is in the main paper read by the masses. The friendly one, which is obviously hostile to Congress, is in the sister publication which is generally patronized by corporate buyers. It is nothing but a ‘happenstance’.

In fact it is a significant phenomenon. On Indian politics in general, and Modi in particular, it is not only media but most stakeholders who are speaking in two voices. Nor is it anything but unexpected. For Modi is nothing short of an odds-maker’s nightmare. If one is to continue using the betting parlance, the odds are not difficult to offer to the parties. Congress, it is well-known, has a long incumbency weighing heavily on it. Its handicap is compounded by a procession of failures: a battered public image due to corruption scandals, raging inflation, failure to create sufficient jobs, and a rather inexplicable lack of clarity on whether Rahul Gandhi, the 42-year-old dynast, will actually lead the government from the front seat if his party gets the numbers.

BJP, the main adversary, is even more badly hobbled by its isolation. Nearly a decade after the NDA that it spearheaded ruled at the Center, it is now left with no trustworthy ally except the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, both sub-nationalist entities. Even their support isn’t unqualified. Besides, while the party’s traditional ‘Hindutva’ card is at least two decades past its sell-by date, no new thinking has emerged from its leaders about how to tackle the problems staring the country in the face, such as rising crime and poor governance. To top it all, it has virtually no presence in the entire southern peninsula barring Karnataka, nor in a large state like West Bengal.  

Between Congress and BJP, the odds, therefore, are evenly balanced. It could be a contest, at best, between two slow horses.

But Modi’s possible entry into the race has upset an otherwise staid competition between two feckless contestants, as BJP-plus-Modi can be an explosive mixture.
He is another pair of shoes. After the 2002 Gujarat communal carnage, when the state administration was under his charge, and he was accused of being blatantly partisan, he was thought to be a liability for his party. The legal slugfest that is going on between Modi and the government of Dr Manmohan Singh on charges concerning the riots and fake encounters is continuing with no respite. With CBI zeroing on him and his camp followers, the Modi-led BJP is set for unexpected explosions.

The fact that Modi did win state elections repeatedly against such odds created a mystique about him. And what has made him decidedly larger than his party is the fact that he has successfully transformed his image from being cruel to tough—a no-nonsense administrator under whom Gujarat witnessed new and large investments. True that many of these had existed long before Modi, but his style of firm management instilled confidence in the hearts of investors, leading to modernization, diversification and expansion of existing businesses. Besides, the state saw no further riots after 2002.

All this, compounded by powerful media hype, have created the myth of Modi’s governance skill. The more the UPA has faltered in governance, the higher has Modi’s rating risen as a tough manager. He has undoubtedly gained by default. Nobody knows if he has the competence to rule at the Center. The recent revolt of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar against Modi merely being named the chief of the party’s campaign committee proves that others too may think that association with him could darken their doors. Yet BJP has decided to bet on Modi for the next Lok Sabha polls. Heads Modi wins, tails Rajnath Singh loses as he did in 2009.
Reverting to the metaphor of gambling, Modi-led BJP is a typical dark-horse in the racetrack. Odds are surely turning against UPA. But they are in no way being stacked in Modi’s favor, as a dark horse is one about whom very little is known. No bookmaker will readily accept bets on him. Nor is it safe to bet against him. Perhaps this explains a critical article in one publication of a group, and a friendly one in a sister publication. A good hedge, for sure. The absence of big names at the recent CII conclave addressed by Modi in Mumbai is another confirmation of uncertain times. After the hype, its hedging now.  
(The author is National Editor of Lokmat group of newspapers)