by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Why Delhi Is Betting on Ashwini Vaishnav

Ashwini Vaishnav is not the kind of minister who dominates television panels or daily headlines. He keeps a deliberately low profile, avoids the media glare, and operates with the demeanour of a technocrat rather than a political showman. Yet, in Narendra Modi’s government, his importance far outweighs his visibility.

Vaishnav’s strength lies in a rare convergence of skills. A former IAS officer with an engineering degree from IIT Kanpur and an MBA from Wharton, he embodies the Modi government’s preferred model of leadership—technically grounded, administratively sharp, and relentlessly execution-focused. As the minister handling Railways, Electronics and IT, he is seen as a hands-on administrator who understands both policy design and the nuts and bolts of delivery.

He has also cultivated a reputation for accessibility. Unlike many senior ministers, Vaishnav uses social media proactively, responding to public grievances and tracking complaints in real time. Beyond this, he holds the crucial Information and Broadcasting portfolio, placing him at the heart of the government’s sensitive media management operations, including coordination with the PMO. Reflecting this expanded role, a wing of the government’s top media team now functions from Rail Bhawan itself—an unusual but telling institutional coordination.

It is against this backdrop that his quiet arrival in Washington a few days ago assumes significance. Officially, the visit focused on critical minerals. Politically and economically, it was about much more. Vaishnav does not hold a trade or mining portfolio. His presence signalled something else: that he was acting as the Prime Minister’s economic emissary.

By sending a minister who combines proximity to Modi with direct control over industrial execution, New Delhi signalled seriousness to Washington. This was not exploratory diplomacy, but negotiation with intent. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar continues to frame the strategic narrative and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal guards the trade perimeter, the center of gravity has clearly shifted. He has also been sent to Davos at the World Economic Forum meet.  The conversation has moved from diplomacy to deployability. Implementers are now at the forefront—and in that transition, Ashwini Vaishnav has emerged as Modi's muscat.

Ankita Bhandari case: BJP's Self-Inflicted Crisis

The BJP has perfected the art of marketing a political narrative putting rivals to lick the dust in states after states. Most of the Chief Ministers of the BJP-ruled states are having a comfortable time unless the high command decides to show them the door. For a while, everything seemed to be moving smoothly for the Pushkar Singh Dhami government in Uttarakhand. His standing was high with the top leadership of both the RSS and the BJP in terms of delivery and political management. But chinks in his armory surfaced in the murder of Ankita Bhandari case.

More than three years after this hotel receptionist was killed – and seven months after the accused in the case were convicted – fresh allegations surfaced with a senior BJP leader being accused of being involved in it. The fresh outrage forced the Chief Minister to visit Ankita Bhandari's parents and order a CBI probe to identify the alleged “VIP” involved in her murder.

This came as a shot in arm to the Congress and put the BJP on a weak wicket. The reason lay not in the investigation itself but in a series of avoidable missteps by BJP leaders that steadily muddied the narrative. If a CBI inquiry was inevitable to establish the identity of the VIP, the question arises as to why the same was not done earlier. The trigger, perhaps, was

when State BJP president Mahendra Bhatt branded whistle blower in the case a “Congress puppet.” The whistle blower, a North East student claimed that a person referred to as “G” was exerting pressure on Ankita Bhandari through Pulkit Arya for “special services,” and that her refusal led to her murder. Following these claims, the name of a senior BJP leader began circulating, forcing him to seek judicial intervention.

What’s in a Name? BJP’s Quiet Battle Over New Chief

The party’s top brass has quietly issued an internal advisory: senior leaders are requested—the word is doing heavy lifting here—to address the new chief strictly as Adhyakshji. Not Bhaiyyaji, not Nitin babu, and certainly not the dangerously affectionate “Arre Nitin!” The problem is age. Nabin is younger than almost everyone who matters, and Bihar BJP is populated by veterans who have been calling each other bhai since the Mandal era. Old habits, like old leaders, refuse to retire.

There is genuine anxiety in Delhi that a casual bhaiyyaji at a public meeting could puncture the carefully constructed authority of the new president. Two BJP Chief Ministers reportedly were heard calling him by the first name.  After all, respect in politics is often measured less by designation and more by how stiffly one folds their hands. For now, the circular stands. Whether Adhyakshji does is another matter entirely.

Why Congress Never Learns: TN Next

If there is one political lesson the Congress steadfastly refuses to absorb, it is the cost of indecision. The party dragged its feet on alliances in Bihar till the last moment and paid the price. Earlier, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa followed the same script—confusion and delayed decisions. Now, Tamil Nadu is beginning to look worryingly familiar.

The state unit is caught in a tug of war between the old guard and the Rahul Gandhi–aligned younger leadership. Veterans want to consolidate the alliance with the ruling DMK, arguing that survival in Tamil Nadu depends on staying firmly within the Dravidian fold. The younger leaders—Manickam Tagore and Jothimani —want the Congress to keep its options open by exploring a possible understanding with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Rahul Gandhi’s recent Tamil Nadu visit was expected to bring clarity. Instead, it deepened the ambiguity. His public criticism of the Censor Board over the denial of a Pongal release to Vijay’s film Jana Nayagan was read as a political signal, unsettling the DMK while energising the pro-TVK camp. For now, Rahul Gandhi appears to be reassuring the DMK even as he encourages his younger colleagues to keep the Vijay option alive—as leverage for more seats and power-sharing. It is a familiar Congress habit: hedge everywhere, decide nowhere, and hope time resolves contradictions. History suggests it rarely does.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

One Party, Two Bosses? The Perils of Reuniting the NCP

Speculation over a re-union of the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party — one led by Sharad Pawar and the other by his nephew Ajit Pawar — has gathered pace, making it one of Maharashtra’s most closely watched political developments. What started as a limited tactical understanding for a municipal election in Pimpri-Chinchwad has snowballed into serious talk of a formal merger, surprising even seasoned observers of Pawar politics.

The broad outline being discussed appears deceptively simple: Sharad Pawar would reclaim the position of supreme leader of a reunited NCP, while Ajit Pawar would continue as the undisputed power center in Maharashtra’s day-to-day politics and governance. On paper, it seems like a neat division of authority — the patriarch as national face and moral anchor, the nephew as the operational strongman.

But this formula is fraught with risk. Ajit Pawar is no longer the rebellious lieutenant he once was. After splitting the party, aligning with the BJP and securing the deputy chief minister’s post, he has tasted power independently, built his own network and demonstrated electoral and administrative clout. In the process, he has proved his worth not just as a survivor, but as a boss in his own right.

That raises the central question haunting merger talks: why would Ajit Pawar willingly return to a subordinate role under Sharad Pawar, especially when he commands legislators, resources and leverage? A re-union may help consolidate the NCP vote base and reduce fragmentation, but it also risks reopening old fault lines over authority, succession and control. For Sharad Pawar, the merger is about legacy. For Ajit Pawar, it is about power and autonomy. Reconciling the two may prove far more complicated than stitching together a pre-poll alliance.

How ED Blinked as Mamata Seized the Moment

Why did central officers not resist Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee when she arrived at the premises of I-PAC, questioned the raid, and reportedly walked away with files and material? And why did the agency appear to yield ground at the very moment its authority was being challenged?

One explanation doing the rounds in political and bureaucratic circles is institutional caution bordering on strategic retreat. Any attempt by ED officers to physically stop a sitting chief minister could have spiraled instantly—legally, politically and on the streets. The optics of central officers restraining Banerjee would have handed her a dramatic visual narrative of federal overreach, potentially triggering unrest in Kolkata and beyond.

There is also speculation that officers on the ground sought directions from senior officials in Delhi and were advised to back off.  The Delhi bosses sought the advice of their political masters too. Whether or not such instructions were explicitly given or consulted, could be anybody's guess. However, former bureaucrats say the “default rule” in such high-voltage situations is to avoid confrontation with constitutional authorities and let the legal process catch up later. As one former home secretary remarked privately, “You don’t win battles like this with muscle. You win them with paper and patience.”

In effect, the ED’s non-resistance reflects a larger strategic dilemma: enforcing the law without feeding a political narrative designed for confrontation. By stepping back, the agency may have preserved legal ground—but at the cost of appearing politically overawed. For Mamata Banerjee, that perception itself may have been the real prize. A final word will, however, come from the judiciary on the issue.

Fear of the Women’s Vote: BJP’s Bengal Dilemma

Just before a crucial Assembly election in Bihar, the Nitish Kumar government had announced a ₹10,000 payout to women under the Chief Minister’s Employment Scheme. The move dramatically altered the state’s political landscape. Around the same time, a video went viral from Bihar’s Belaganj seat in which a senior BJP leader was heard telling a journalist that women would not dare step out of their homes to vote for Nitish Kumar—and that any woman who did so would face consequences. The video caused serious embarrassment to the BJP, but it also revealed a deeper truth: women voters in Bihar had cut across caste lines to back Nitish Kumar.

A strikingly similar situation is now unfolding in West Bengal. A statement by BJP leader and state committee member Kalyan Sen Gupta has gone viral, in which he claims that women will vote for Mamata Banerjee because they benefit from the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme, and therefore women should be confined to their homes on polling day. The remark exposes not confidence, but fear within the BJP.

Mamata Banerjee’s government has been running the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme since 2021, under which women receive direct monthly cash transfers. Women from SC and ST communities get ₹1,200 per month, while others receive ₹1,000. Much like schemes such as Ladli Behna or Maiya Samman in other states, the program has had a deep political impact. In a state where feminine power and goddess worship are culturally embedded, the BJP often finds itself at a disadvantage.

Beyond Lakshmir Bhandar, the Trinamool Congress government runs several women-centric welfare and empowerment schemes. This has heightened BJP’s anxiety that women voters may rise above caste and religious identities to vote decisively for Mamata Banerjee’s party—reshaping Bengal’s political battle once again.

Rekha Gupta’s ‘History Lessons’

Social media is having a field day over Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta’s growing collection of “slips of the tongue”—though many are now asking whether these are slips at all, or something more fundamental. The trouble began when Gupta managed to misfire on not one but two of India’s tallest freedom fighters: Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and Bhagat Singh, triggering frantic damage control by BJP colleagues.

During the winter session of the Delhi Assembly, Gupta recalled the martyrdom of Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev and Rajguru, but said Bhagat Singh hurled a bomb to awaken a “deaf Congress government.” History, unfortunately, records that it was the British Raj—not the Congress—that executed Bhagat Singh. Days earlier, while invoking Netaji, Gupta referred to him as “Netaji Subhas Chandra Palace,” inadvertently renaming a revolutionary icon after a popular Pitampura marketplace known as NSP.

The list of gaffes has since grown: garbage hills being coaxed to leave “like brothers,” AQI described as “temperature,” and repeated historical misfires. Gupta has responded by introducing a gender angle, claiming the Opposition mocks her because it “cannot tolerate a woman CM at work.”

That argument, however, sits awkwardly in a city that has already seen three women chief ministers—without similar meme-festivals. Satire thrives not on gender, but on content. And in politics, as in history, the first rule is simple: facts matter. Especially when invoking martyrs who no longer have the luxury of correcting you.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

No Bed of Roses for Priyanka

The Congress’s decision to make Priyanka Gandhi Vadra  as chairperson of the Assam Congress screening committee marks her first substantive political assignment since her much-hyped but disappointing run as general secretary in Uttar Pradesh in 2022. This time, there will be few excuses. Assam is no bed of roses—and the Congress knows it.

Out of power since 2016, the Congress is attempting to hard-sell the 2026 Assembly elections as a comeback opportunity. It has announced plans to contest 100 of the state’s 126 seats while stitching together a non-BJP alliance with parties such as the Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI and CPI(M). Notably, the party has ruled out any tie-up with the All India United Democratic Front, branding it “communal”—a sharp departure from 2021, when the Congress-AIUDF alliance still failed to dislodge the BJP.

The numbers tell a sobering story. In 2021, the BJP-led NDA retained power with 75 seats. The Congress-led alliance managed 50 seats, of which the AIUDF alone won 16. However, the margin between the vote share of the two blocs was only 1.6 per cent

For Priyanka Gandhi, the challenge is two-fold. As screening committee chief, she must curb factionalism and resist the temptation of safe, familiar names in ticket distribution. Assam’s politics—shaped by ethnicity, identity and relentless BJP mobilisation—demands precision, not sentiment.

With the BJP setting an audacious target of 103 seats after it won 75 seats in 2021. This assignment will test whether Priyanka Gandhi can deliver hard political decisions, not just headlines. In Assam, symbolism will count for little. Results will count for everything.

Sun set for Pawar in RS ?

Maharashtra's tallest leader Sharad Pawar had hinted some time ago at retiring from active politics. But such statements by politicians rarely mean much. When he stopped contesting Lok Sabha elections, he handed over the Baramati seat to his daughter Supriya Sule, who has since won it four times in a row. After that, Pawar moved to the Rajya Sabha.

But this time, his party has won only 10 Assembly seats. How will Pawar return to the Rajya Sabha now? The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — the Shiv Sena (Uddhav), Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP(SP) — has a total of 51 MLAs: Uddhav’s Sena 20, Congress 16, Pawar’s party 10 and a few associates, can win one Rajya Sabha seat.

Of the seven seats falling vacant in the state, two belong to Pawar’s group, and one each to Uddhav Sena and Congress. If MVA parties agree, they can send Sharad Pawar back to the Rajya Sabha. But will they? Pawar camp is hopeful as parties switched alliances in local bodies' polls. They can come together for Rajya Sabha polls too as there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics — only permanent interests.

Similarly, the long parliamentary journey of former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda also appears to be nearing its end. Deve Gowda, 90 years has been a member of one House or the other continuously. He handed over his Lok Sabha seat to his grandson. Now his Rajya Sabha term is ending. With only 19 MLAs, his party cannot win a seat on its own.

With four Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant, the BJP is likely to win one. Deve Gowda can return to the Rajya Sabha only if the BJP gives its seat to the JD(S). Since two BJP MPs are retiring and the party is expected to win one seat, it is doubtful the BJP would spare it for Deve Gowda. But the JD(S) has not given up hope.

Why Shashi Tharoor Is Changing His Tune

For weeks, Shashi Tharoor appeared to be singing from an unexpectedly conciliatory hymn sheet. The Congress MP was seen backing the government on several initiatives, prompting whispers in Lutyens’ Delhi: was Tharoor inching closer to the BJP, or at least drifting away from the Congress’ combative line? That narrative is now fraying.

Over the last few days, Tharoor has unmistakably shifted gears, emerging as one of the most structured and substantive critics of the Modi government in the Winter Session of Parliament. He opposed the dilution of MGNREGA and strongly objected to the G Ram G saying “Ram Ka Naam Badnam Na Karo”. Many Congressmen wondered as to why Tharoor was fielded by the party when he had been openly hob-nobing with the BJP. Tharoor also took on the government over the controversial bill opening up the nuclear energy sector to private players, arguing that strategic sectors cannot be surrendered to corporate risk-taking.

The turning point came when Tharoor authored a sharply worded column in a leading English daily, accusing the government of reducing Parliament to a “rubber stamp.” It was not the rhetoric of a fence-sitter, but of a parliamentarian deeply alarmed by executive overreach and legislative bypassing.

So why does the speculation about his exit from Congress persist? Partly because Tharoor refuses to conform to the party’s loud-but-loose style of opposition. His critique is methodical, policy-driven, and anchored in constitutional language—qualities often mistaken for softness in today’s hyper-partisan climate. If anything, Tharoor’s “changing tune” says less about ideological drift and more about the party’s discomfort with disciplined dissent that doesn’t come wrapped in daily outrage.

Tailpiece: Sadhna Singh was always in the news when Shivraj Singh Chouhan was Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. The better half was often referred to as half CM. But ever since Chouhan has been shifted to Delhi and inducted into the Union Cabinet, she has hardly been seen or heard.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP Working president Nitin Nabin for Rajya Sabha

Battle for 5 seats begins in Bihar 

Harish Gupta

Nitin Nabin, BJP's newly appointed Working president, is likely to be brought to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar when the state goes for biennial polls in March-April this year. There are reports that the BJP may bring a new face in Rajya Sabha for the second seat as well. It will be a big gain for the BJP as none of the five retiring Rajya Sabha Mps belong to it.

The BJP is unlikely to give Rajya Sabha seat to Upendra Kushwaha (RLM) this time. He had been brought to the Rajya Sabha two years ago by the BJP. Now that Kushwaha insisted on appointing his son as a minister in Bihar without being an MLA, it has cast a shadow over his Rajya Sabha prospects. The son may be made an MLC from the seat vacated by BJP's Mangal Pandey.

Of the five seats falling vacant in Bihar, the Janata Dal (U) will win two seats and a bitter battle may be witnessed for the 5^th seat given the composition of the state Assembly. The Janata Dal (U) is likely to retain its two Mps -Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha Harivansh and Union Minister of State Ram Nath Thakur barring unforeseen reasons.

Two MPs of the RJD, Prem Chand Gupta and A.D. Singh  are retiring. It is yet to be seen if the Opposition fields a joint candidate for the 5^th seat. But it sounds difficult given the current political scenario. The Mahagathbandhan has 35 MLAs (RJD-25, INC -6, CPI(ML)L-2, CPI(M)-1 & IIP-1. The MGB needs the support of AIMIM (5) and BSP (1) to win the seat. In a House of 243, the NDA has 202 MLAs (BJP-89, JDU-85 LJP-19, HAM -5 and RLM-4.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Untold story of Nitin Nabin making the Cut

Speculation is rife in BJP circles over how a relatively little-known leader like Nitin Nabin emerged as the party’s new working president—seemingly out of the blue. Multiple versions are doing the rounds in Delhi.

One account suggests that BJP president J P Nadda shortlisted Nabin’s name when Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked for suitable options. The logic was straightforward: Nabin was born and educated in Bihar and had a fair grasp of the state’s political terrain. Another, more intriguing, whisper is that Modi himself sought a list of BJP ministers across states in the 45–50 age bracket—leaders seen as performers, ideologically rooted in the RSS, and ready for bigger organisational responsibility.

Amid these competing narratives, one striking detail has surfaced from Chhattisgarh. It turns out that the responsibility of coordinating and executing the entire exercise was entrusted by Modi to his most trusted lieutenant, Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The reason is revealing. Nitin Nabin had earlier worked under Shah during the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, a phase during which a rapport was forged. That connection appears to have mattered.

Recently, Shah traveled to Raipur and sent word to Nabin in Patna to meet him personally. Nabin rushed to Raipur, where the meeting with Shah turned into a detailed, interactive conversation. After some time, Shah asked him to meet Nadda and BJP general secretary (organization) B L Santosh. What followed later is just history. Party insiders say it is vintage Modi: quiet screening, tight control, and a final decision that leaves even the chosen candidate stunned.

The Self-Inflicted Decline of Mayawati’s BSP

The year saw the decline and fall of the BSP which was at its zenith in 2007. The BSP was not merely a Dalit party but a national disruptor. A full majority in Uttar Pradesh turned Mayawati into a symbol of social justice politics that could command power, not just protest. Two years later, the BSP emerged as India’s third-largest party by vote share, winning 21 Lok Sabha seats.

The fall since has been relentless—and self-inflicted. Mayawati’s insistence on political isolation, her distrust of alliances, and her centralised command structure steadily hollowed out the party. While rivals adapted to coalition politics, the BSP withdrew into a rigid, top-down shell. Cadres thinned, second-rung leadership vanished, and organisational depth collapsed. Mayawati is watching with growing unease as the Congress gains traction among Dalit voters after the BSP failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2024, and its vote share in UP plunged to just 9.39% — less than half of what it secured in 2019. Even the BJP started getting Dalit votes in large chunks.

But the BSP’s core Jatav Dalit vote in UP remains largely intact. However, votes without alliances no longer convert into seats in a polarised, first-past-the-post system. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections laid this bare: 2.07% vote share, zero MPs, and a fall out of national relevance. With its last Rajya Sabha tenure ending soon and no revival strategy in sight, the BSP now stands on the brink of parliamentary extinction. Mayawati’s greatest political achievement may also be her most enduring undoing.

Myth of Merit Busted as OBC Students Outperform

The idea that caste-based reservations undermine academic merit has taken a hit — not from politics, but from hard data. In an unexpected trend from this year’s Class XII board results, students from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) have surpassed their general category counterparts in at least eight state school boards, including those of  Maharashtra, Bengal, Rajasthan, and Jharkhand.

The figures come from the Joint Seat Allocation Authority (JoSAA), which compiles school board scores to determine eligibility for admissions to IITs and NITs. One of the conditions for entry into these institutes is being in the top 20 percentile of a board or scoring at least 75%. JoSAA’s latest data, covering 22 state boards along with CBSE and the Council for Indian School Certificate Examination (CISCE), show that the cutoff scores for the top 20 percentile among non-creamy layer OBC students were higher than for general category students across several boards.

Even under the Nagaland board, Scheduled Caste students outperformed general category students, while Scheduled Tribe students matched general-category performance under the Goa board.  As the reservation debate resurfaces periodically, these board exam trends may serve as a quiet but powerful counter to those who still view affirmative action as an obstacle to excellence.

Congress’ Big Days, Bigger Loose Cannons

Just when the Congress was trying to project unity and renewed purpose on its foundation day, veteran leader Digvijaya Singh ensured the spotlight shifted elsewhere. Instead of the party’s legacy, message and future road map dominating headlines, it was Singh’s controversial remarks that ended up stealing the show. The timing could not have been worse. The foundation day event was punctured handing political rivals easy ammunition.

For the Congress, this was an all-too-familiar script. Not long ago, Shashi Tharoor’s public remarks had similarly unsettled the party. No disciplinary action followed—only hurried clarifications and a collective attempt to move on.

The pattern is revealing. Senior leaders speak out of turn, headlines are generated, and the party is left red-faced. Yet consequences remain elusive. The high command appears reluctant to act against heavyweight figures, wary of provoking internal backlash or feeding a narrative of intolerance.

The result is a recurring problem for the Congress: moments meant to build momentum are repeatedly overshadowed by self-inflicted controversies. Digvijaya Singh may escape formal action, just as Tharoor did earlier, but the damage is already done. On a day meant to celebrate the party’s foundation, Congress once again found itself explaining itself—rather than setting the agenda.