Fly On the Wall | A battle royal between two Chankyas

Fly On the Wall
by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A battle royal between two Chankyas

If all goes as per plans, the country may soon be on the cusp of a battle royal between BJP's Chankya Amit Shah and Opposition’s poll strategist Prashant Kishore, “PK”. Both were key strategists for Narendra Modi’s Prime Ministerial campaign in 2014 and fell out later. The Congress is on the verge of picking PK as its key poll strategist until the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A decision is likely anytime next week. PK will not charge any fee for his services as he will be formally joining the Congress. He has told the three Gandhis that if inducted, he will oversee the party's poll strategies in all the elections leading up to 2024. He said the situation can be retrieved in Punjab and Uttarakhand is winnable if the right kind of strategy is adopted. But he would like to make a big beginning with Gujarat and Karnataka where Assembly polls will be held in November 2022. The BJP and Congress are in direct contest in these states. The BJP can be defeated in its home turf in Gujarat after 27 years of being in power. Before inducting PK, Sonia Gandhi wants the stamp of approval of all CWC members. The party men are happy that finally Rahul Gandhi is listening to somebody and may act on his advice.

Why PK fell out with Shah

Though 'PK' was part of Modi’s core team in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Modi was so impressed by PK’s skills that he was allotted a place on the top floor of the CM's residence itself. PK had also given Modi a blueprint to overhaul the bureaucracy on the US pattern where thousands of officers come and go with the new Presidents. When Modi asked PK what role he would like to play, the latter wanted to be named as BJP's Poll Strategist. If there could be a general secretary (organization), why not general secretary (poll strategy)? Modi was willing to consider but Amit Shah nixed it soon after taking over as BJP Chief. Modi dithered and PK moved out. Amit Shah and PK were face to face for the first time in Bihar and Delhi Assembly polls in 2015 and BJP was decisively defeated. But PK didn't get the desired credit. The victories in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh were discounted as BJP was a junior partner in these states. PK also tasted failure in 2017 in UP. His golden moment came seven years later when he trounced Amit Shah in West Bengal in 2021 in a big way. It was a huge setback for Shah and a beaming PK claimed “he is BJP’s overrated Poll Manager.”

Disquiet in RSS

There is disquiet in the RSS these days. A top RSS leader put it very aptly: “Aajkal prasannta ka vatavaran nahin Hai.” (Nowadays, the atmosphere is not pleasant). He did not elaborate but the disconnect between the BJP and the RSS is clearly visible. The RSS was not happy with the way the government handled CAA and three Farm Acts and the talks should have been held. The recent Cabinet reshuffle widened the gulf as wings of Nitin Gadkari were further clipped when the MSME ministry was taken away.

As if this was not enough, most of the recommendations of the RSS for new inductions were ignored. The RSS Chief, Mohan Bhagwat’s statement that the government and Society, both, have to understand and learn lessons from the Covid pandemic, was seen as an oblique criticism of the government.

But the Pegasus telephone tapping scandal that rocked governments world over, created a major disconnect. It has surfaced now that telephone numbers of many RSS functionaries including a senior one were under watch. It is learnt that a top-most officer of the Modi dispensation visited Chitrakoot where Pratinidhi Sabha was being held in the second week of July. The meet was significant as it came much before the Pegasus snooping scandal officially surfaced on July 18. He had a long chat with RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat. What transpired between them is not known. But many say that the tweet of Subramanian Swamy on July 18 morning that tapping the phones of PM Modi’s cabinet ministers, RSS leaders and others will be disclosed soon. Obviously, this person was sent to Chitrakoot on a fire-fighting mission as the government knew beforehand that such a scandal may surface. An insider said, “the gulf has widened since then.”

Cabinet reshuffle, party rejig on cards

PM holds high-level meet , Nadda, top RSS leaders present

Harish Gupta (National Editor, Lokmat Group)
New Delhi, June 30

Final touches are being given for a reshuffle in Union Cabinet and Team-Nadda this month.  A high-level meeting took place  at the Prime Minister's residence  where top leaders of the RSS, BJP president J P Nadda and others were present. 

 Two top functionaries of the RSS, joint general

secretaries Dattratreya Honsabole and Dr Krishan Gopal, BJP general secretary B L Santosh, incharge of organisation along with party chief J P Nadda were present. This is the first time after the 100-days long lockdown that the top  leadership of the government and party apparatus came face-to-face. Insiders say that the meeting among the top leaders continued for more than two and half hours where thorough review of the achievements of the party, challenges and short-comings were discussed. 

Now that the Rajya Sabha biennial polls are over and Unlock 2.0 is in the process and the Parliament's Monsoon session is being planned sooner than expected, a much-delayed rejig is likely.  

There is a buzz that party's key functionary in West Bengal Mukul Roy may be brought into the Cabinet and may get a heavy weight ministry. Similarly, Jyotiraditya Scindia who was recently elected to Rajya Sabha and instrumental in BJP forming the government in Madhya Pradesh will be brought into the Cabinet. Similarly, there is a strong talk of Himanta Biswa Sarma may be brought into the Union Ministry who has done excellent work in the North East as a reward for his services.  The party has to win West Bengal elections and the induction of Mukul Roy will have some electrifying effect. 

It is learnt that some of the Cabinet Ministers were also called in at the PMO for a brief period and they left after a while. What transpired among them is not immediately known. But it is clear that some of the Ministers are under the radar for their poor performance. Those holding more than one portfolio in the government are likely to shed some weight.

Similarly, Nadda has been waiting in the wings to have a team after taking over as party chief on January 20. There are three vacancies in the parliamentary board due to the untimely demise of Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Ananth Kumar. There is a talk that any of the two women leaders, Nirmala Sitharaman or Smriti Irani may be brought in. There is also a suggestion that Irani be made the party's face of Delhi while retaining Cabinet post to take on Arvind Kejriwal.

RSS stepped in to resolve Maharashtra political crisis

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

RSS stepped in to resolve Maharashtra political crisis

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Nov 6

The RSS has finally stepped in to resolve the political crisis engulfing the state for the past ten days. If sources in the Sangh Parivar are to be believed, the RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat may speak to Sena Chief Uddhav Thacheray in order to resolve the stand-off between the two parties.

The process of RSS intervention began with Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis touching base with Road Transport & MSMEs minister Nitin Gadkari two days ago. Both the leaders gave no clue as to what transpired between them. But it is presumed that Fadnavis wanted Gadkari to intervene in the political crisis as he has good relations with Sena leadership too.

It was following this meeting that Fadnavis went to Nagpur to meet the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat to apprise him of the developing political situation.It may be informed that the BJP-Sena seat sharing deal was clinched before the May Lok Sabha polls with efforts of Mohan Bhagwat. The BJP conceded as many as 23 Lok Sabha seats to Sena and climbed down a bit.

These sources say that Mohan Bhagwat is extremely busy with the Ram Temple issue as the Supreme Court judgment is expected anytime between November 11-13. Shiv Sena has been part of the long struggle for the Ram Temple movement and integral part of the Parivar.

Therefore, the RSS chief is may make an effort to resolve the crisis and also impress on the BJP to be magnanimous in any power sharing arrangement. He wants political tempers to cool down as big Ram Temple issue will come up next week.

The Sena's position also has become somewhat may awkward after NCP Chief Sharad Pawar had withdrawn from the BJP-Sena infighting saying the NCP-Congress have the mandate to sit in the Opposition.

The change in tune came after Congress president Sonia Gandhi stood firm in telling Sharad Pawar that her party would find it difficult to support Sena led government from inside or outside. In view of these developments, the prospects of resolution of crisis may be on the radar.

Ends 

Ram Temple Tops RSS agenda at 3-day conclave

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

special report 

Ram Temple Tops RSS agenda at 3-day conclave

RSS brass' 3-day meet in Bhubneshwar

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Oct 10

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) working committee will brainstorm on key issues of Ram Temple, Article 370, National Citizenship Register and other key issues in Bhubneshwar. There are reports that the issue of Uniform Civil Code (UCC) may also come up during the brainstorming running into five days. While on October 15, all senior RSS workers will be part of the congregation- first major exercise in the Odisha Capital. The next day, members of the executive committee which is a larger forum will review the overall situation including the political situation.

Thereafter, three days Working Committee will be convened between October 17-20 where key policy decisions of the past will be reviewed and agenda next will be debated and finalised.

The RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and General Secretary Bhayyaji Joshi will participate in the meeting apart from joint general secretaries Dattaterya Hosabole, Krishan Gopal, Manmohan Vaidya and others. The chiefs of 55-odd frontal organisations have also been invited at the three day conclave. There is a likelihood that BJP president Amit Shah and working president J P Nadda may take part for a day. VHP International Chief Alok Kumar has been specifically asked to be present as the Ram Temple issue is to be discussed in great detail. It seems a strategy is to worked out as the Ayodhya verdict will be out in November. The VHP has already said big preparations for the Ram Temple construction will begin.

There is a view in the RSS that UCC can wait for sometime as Ram Temple is of prime importance and process of construction must begin at a faster pace after the verdict.

The state of the economy and global warming, Upcoming Legislative Assembly elections

are among other subjects. The RSS also wants the government to seriously take up the issue of religious conversions and population control. Since the RSS chief has openly praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi on more than one occasion, its a clear sign of bon-homie between the RSS and the BJP. 

Nitish Douses fire on controversial RSS circular

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Nitish Douses fire on controversial RSS circular

Alliance intact

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 18

Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (U) president Nitish Kumar swung into action to douse the fire which is rocking the alliance for the past some time over a circular issued by the state intelligence bureau.

The circular issued by the Bihar Police's Special Branch (intelligence wing) directed all district police officials to collect information on the RSS functionaries and its 17 affiliate bodies functioning in the state. The circular was issued on May 28 with the sign and seal of the SP of the Special Branch. The Special Branch is directly under the Chief Minister who is state's Home minister as well. The secret circular, however, surfaced last week and snowballied into a major controversy as BJP is a key ally. The letter directing DSPs to provide details of leaders of RSS and its 17 affiliates including their telephone numbers, addresses, facebook accounts etc etc.

The circular detailed surfaced at a time when differences have already surfaced over over number of berths to be given to the JD(U) in the Union Cabinet.

Now a detailed probe has been ordered by the Chief Minister into the controversial circular and SP may face problems too. Additional Director General of Police (Special Branch), G S Gangwar tried to control the damage, saying “the directive was not at the behest of the government... it was issued it without clearance.” Obviously, the government is trying to distance itself from tnhe circular full 50 days after it was issued. The home department is understood to have slapped a show-cause notice on him.

Ends 

Fly on the Wall : New Leaf in Modi-RSS bon-homie

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

New Leaf in Modi-RSS bon-homie 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is walking an extra mile to keep the RSS leadership in good humour. Compared to his predecessor Atal Behari Vajpayee, Modi always had a cordial relationship with his parent organisation. But he did what he felt right and in the process ignored suggestions made even by the RSS chief, Mohan Bhagwat too. However, Modi saw to it that the communications lines are never snapped. But things are different in an election year and political compulsions have forced Modi to mend fences further. If he held a dinner meeting with the RSS leaders on Friday, he invited them again for a detailed organisational and political discussion next day as well. The RSS-BJP leaders had assembled from across the country for a three-day conclave at Surajkund to discuss threadbare issues needed to be resolved in each state. In the process, Modi also bumped into some of the old-timers he had worked with. He had a relaxed dinner meet with them and next day held a marathon meet with them. This was somewhat unusual as it was the sole task of BJP president to meet the RSS leadership and brief him and they together used to take decisions. All top leaders of the RSS except Mohan Bhagwat were present where critical review was done for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It has been decided that RSS leadership will burn the mid-night oil for the return of the Modi government. It was during this conclave that Modi agreed to snap ties with PDP in Jammu & kashmir. The RSS was strongly opposed to the BJP-PDP tie-up but gave in as Modi wanted to make an experiment to send global message. Now RSS is happy saying, “Der Aaye Durrust Aaye”.

Modi mends fences with Sena too 

Modi was not in favour of having any truck with Shiv Sena from day one. Reasons were many, foremost being the fact that it had proposed the name of Sushma Swaraj for Prime Minister's post. But he didn't want to break ties with Sena and ignored its barbs. While Sena continued to attack the functioning of his government, Modi never retaliated and nor allowed any senior party leader to launch a counter attack. Modi was in favour of that let Sena contest independently  during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But the RSS didn't want severing of ties with the leading ally of the BJP which swears by the Hindutva philosophy. The RSS wanted that Sena be retained in the alliance and suggested that Amit Shah meet Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray and resolve the issue. Though was against any truck with Sena, he told Shah to handle the matter in the best interest of the party. What exactly transpired between Amit Shah and Uddhav Thackeray during the one-to-one meet has not been made public as yet. But insiders say that Sena's condition that Assembly polls be held simultaneously with Lok Sabha in Maharashtra has sent the BJP leadership to run for a cover. Obviously, Sena is wanting the Chief Minister's post- either through a rotational system or otherwise. BJP cannot concede supremacy to Sena again. But it is hesitant to bear the loss of Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra either. The BJP had won 23 seats while Sena had secured 18 out of 48 in Maharashtra. It transpires that RSS is talking to Sena leadership to evolve a workable formula. 

Last laugh for Ajit Doval 

National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval is the happiest person in the PMO with the departure of Mehbooba Mufti as Chief Minister of J&K. Doval is considered a hardliner and was against any alliance with the PDP to form the government. He wanted to develop a network of spies in the trouble-torn state and wanted complete coordination between the Police and Security forces. But Mehbooba government was a bottle-neck as most of the violent incidents took place in the areas under the influence of the PDP. Doval did not meet Mehbooba except when she called on him during her visit to Delhi on August 8, 2016. Now Doval would be able to implement his doctrine in the Valley. He was of the view that the policy of appeasement will not work. He had conveyed during a series of meetings with the PM that there is no point in taking a soft stance in the valley. It was Doval who brought in Dineshwar Sharma as  Interlocutor. Sharma was made IB Chief at the behest of Doval. Sources even say that Doval wants an experienced hand like Governor N N Vohra to continue for some time so that forces can stablise before launching an offensive in a big way. A massive cleansing operation in the Valley will begin now and the PMO will directly take over the Kashmir affairs with Home Ministry playing second fiddle. The Mufti government canceling criminal cases against 11000 stone pelters will also be reviewed now. 

BJP offers Deputy Chairman's post to BJD

The BJP leadership has signaled that it is willing to offer the post of Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha to any of the acceptable leader of non-BJP parties. PM Modi is of the firm view that the Deputy Chairman plays an important role in the day-to-day running of the Rajya Sabha and given its composition, an acceptable face is needed. The BJP was earlier toying with the idea of installing its own leader Bhupendra Yadav as Deputy Chairman. But the party gave up as it would created a situation of confrontation given that the BJP and its supporters won't cross the 112 seats mark in a House of 245. But the BJP was not sure which way Shiv Sena will behave as deal with it has not been clinched as yet. It was also not sure which way Biju Janata Dal (9), Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (6), YSR-Congress (2) and Chaulata's INLD (1) will go. Even TDP (6) is still undecided even after severing ties with the BJP. Therefore, Modi wanted a non-BJP person even if he belonged to Trinamool Congress be chosen. In the process, the name of Sukhendu Shekhar Roy was mentioned. But Mamata Banerjee is not receptive of the idea as it may send a wrong signal in the election year. The BJP will be too happy to offer the post to BJD as Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is maintaining equiv-distance with BJP and Congress.  With the departure of P J Kurien, the Congress has also signaled to other parties that it is willing to support any of them for the post as it held it for ten years. The Congress & its allies are way behind with 92 seats and their candidate cannot win unless seven non-NDA non-UPA  parties accounting for 40 seats go with them. 

Fly on the wall : Now Modi Mantra for Governors too

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Now Modi Mantra for Governors too

Prime Minister Modi is understood to have expressed the view that the Governors should play active role rather than merely launching books, open exhibitions, attend cultural functions etc etc. No doubt, the governors are not expected to play political role in the state they are deputed by the President. But they should strive to find a role in nation building. It transpires that the PM shared his thoughts with the President, Ram Nath Kovind sometime ago as Governors report to the President on a daily basis. Of course, the Union Home Ministry under Rajnath Singh plays a key role while dealing with the states & Governors. It now transpires that the President was extremely enthusiastic about the idea and decided to take it up in the Committee of Governors which meets at the Rashtrapati Bhawan on a regular basis. The PM wanted that Governors should play a key role in development of the state and should extensively travel within the state and go to districts. Since the Chief Ministers are extremely busy in political management and other affairs, the governors should interact with people and should be seen as agents of change. Since they are the representatives of the Centre, they should take forward the development mantra. They should draw a line between politics and development. Accordingly, a concept paper emerged and the committee of governors submitted a report: Governors- Ambassadors of Change in the society. The issue was discussed at a conference of governors as well last year. But no one got a wind of it. Now that the report has come, a detailed guideline is likely to be issued to be followed by the Governors. The PM doesn't want governors to sit in Raj Bhawans and have good time. They should travel and reach out to the people and create their own identity by connecting with the people and become their mentors. The Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states may not mind this over-reach by the governors. But non-NDA states may not accept it. Even 75-plus year-old governors are also not very enthusiastic of Modi's plan as they want to live a retired political life.

10 Ministers-in-waiting needed for 10 ASEAN Leaders

A search is on for 10 most competent Ministers of State out of a total number of 37 MoS who are to deputed as Minister-in-waiting for 10 Heads/Prime Ministers of 10 ASEAN countries. As per the protocol, all heads of 10 ASEAN countries have to be treated at par. Therefore, ministers-in-waiting will have to be of the same rank for these 10 heads and no MoS with Independent charge or a Cabinet rank minister will be deputed for them. These 10 Ministers of state are being carefully chosen by the Prime Minister himself as it is for the first time that ten heads of countries will be Guest of Honour at the Republic Day parade at Rajpath. These MoS will accompany their respective heads throughout their stay in India who will also attend ASEAN Summit on January 25. It transpires that the PM will return from Davos on January 24 after addressing the Plenary session on January 23 night. Modi wants Republic Day celebration in 2018 to be "remembered through the ages".

The ministries of Defence & External Affairs are working round the clock to cope with the situation as the PM is personally monitoring the arrangements. Even the Dais Plan at Rajpath venue is personally chalked out by Modi. The ministers are M J Akbar, Vijay Goel, Anupriya Patel, P P Chaudhary, Satya Pal Singh, S S Ahluwalia, Jayant Sinha and others.

Changes in RSS unlikely, for now

Intense speculation is on in the RSS whether Bhayyaji Joshi who is number two in the hierarchy, will stay as Sarkarvah (General Secretary). An affable and tough RSS top leader was not keeping well for the past some time. Though he has fully recovered, speculation in rife in Nagpur about his continuation. Sources say Bhaiyyaji Joshi himself is not keen to stay beyond March when the issue will come up. Joshi has held the post for three consecutive terms. However, RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat doesn't want him to go particularly when the RSS is in the midst of massive expansion plans. The BJP, one of the RSS' frontal organisation, also needs massive support for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The RSS also has a challenge to keep coordination among its other 50-odd front organisations. The differences between the BJP and Swadesh Jagran Manch, VHP and others also needs tactful handling. Bhaiyyaji Joshi has been handling all this for a long time. Though there is a competent team of four joint general secretaries comprising of Dattatreya Hosabale, Suresh Soni, Krishan Gopal and V Bhagaiah and also Manmohan Vaidya who is head of the ideological wing of the RSS. But Bhagwat won't like to make any changes at this juncture.

Yogi angry with Centre on new DGP

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is extremely angry with the Centre. Reason ? There is a deafening silence in North Block over the appointment of Om Prakash Singh as the new UP Director-General of Police. An announcement was made 10 days back that CISF DG Om Prakash Singh will be the new UP DGP. O P Singh is the second senior-most IPS officer of the UP cadre and Yogi Adityanath specially requested Rajnath Singh to relieve the officer immediately. The Union Home Minister reported to have cleared the appointment and it was expected that O P Singh will join as DGP on January 3. But all went quiet and no one willing to say anything. Yogi doesn't have the courage to ring up the PM and ask where is the file pending and why. The silence of the PMO suggest that the Department of Personnel may be exploring other possibilities. When it was pointed out that O P Singh is junior to another IPS officer Praveen Kumar, it was explained that Praveen Kumar has just three months to retire. The Centre doesn't permit states to give extensions to the DGP beyond three months. Yogi explained that he can't have DGPs every six months in the state. But Modi was not amused. It is said the Centre is not too impressed with the credentials of O P Singh. It is said that Yogi is relying more on officers of Rajput community and this is not sending the right signal. If the SP and BSP governments resorted to appointing Yadavs and persons of a particular community, no useful purpose will be served by following the same pattern. Now the officers of of a particular caste are being appointed in key positions in the state. The Centre is already worried about the law and order situation in UP. But Yogi is unwilling to relent. 

You down jack, I down jack

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Analysing the upcoming election (July 17) of the President of India may be like replaying the tape of an old cricket match. Because there is not much surprise left in the contest between Ram Nath Kovind, a career politician and the ruling NDA’s official candidate, and Meira Kumar, UPA’s, or rather the Congress’, official candidate, daughter of former deputy prime minister Jagjivan Ram, diplomat, former Lok Sabha Speaker, and an amateur rifle shooter. Kovind is way out front in the race, which generally follows party lines. And, in the arithmetic of voting strength, the NDA starts from a winning score of 63 per cent; it may go up, not down, in the weeks ahead.

But it is still an interesting election. For the BJP, the choice of candidate holds a major surprise for the assorted scaremongers who had begun counting the Doomsday by the annulment of the Constitution’s secular commitments, and expected Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and the RSS to rummage through the nether world and pick up a Hindutva-warrior as the Presidential candidate. The political know-alls in the stretch between Raisina Hill and the gossip-filled bar and cafe of the India International Center were convinced that the apparent rejection by Team Modi of BJP bigwigs like L. K. Advani, M. M. Joshi and Sushma Swaraj for the prestigious (and powerless) job of the President had an ominous hidden meaning—that of eventually ‘Hinduising’ the Constitution with the help of a like-minded President. As if, given an encouraging pat in the back, any of the above persons would be shy to prove their Hindutva ! Apparently, it did not occur to the ‘cognoscenti’ that if the Constitution were to be twisted and mangled right down to its “basic structure”, its operation room could be the Parliament, and not the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The President is a cipher after all.

The fact that Ramnath Kobind is anything but a Swayamsewak—his only link with the RSS being that he had gifted to it his (none too pricey) ancestral home at Derapur in Uttar Pradesh—tells nothing much. If Modi is really harbouring some radical plans about governance, he can carry it through regardless of who is the President. Just as he did not say a word to President Pranab Mukherjee before ordering the scrapping of 86 per cent of the money in circulation. However, while the choice of Kovind is an obvious pointer to the BJP’s 2019 strategy of leaving no dalit sect unturned, it has a sub-text, which is that the dalit face the BJP under Modi and Shah is looking for is the quiet and sober type, not Mayawati’s kind of a restless soul who’d put caste at the centre of every discourse. Both Mayawati and Kovind are law graduates but the latter had practised law for years and, unlike Mayawati, joined a political party which is anything but someone’s personal property. On the other hand, to Mayawati, politics is a weapon of self-aggrandizement.

Just as Kovind’s choice underlines certain aspects of Modi’s mind, the selection of Meira Kumar by the Congress—which is the short-hand for Sonia Gandhi—is also indicative of its priorities. Kumar is dalit only by name but is a prominent member of the capital’s elite club that has all along set the rules of the game of politics. In her young days, she grew up a Lutyens’ Delhi girl and never left it at her present age of 72, having been elected five times to the Lok Sabha and then nominated as Speaker of the Lok Sabha. And, like all clever denizens of Lutyens’ city, she used her influence to get her father’s 6, Krishna Menon Marg residence allotted to herself for 25 years. Her selection as the Congress’ presidential candidate speaks volumes for the elitist bias that has crippled the grand old party, with choice of leadership at every stage being determined by pedigree and rank in society. Meira Kumar may not go down as badly as Lakshmi Sahgal in 2002, who bagged merely 107,366 votes against winner A. P. J. Kalam’s 922,884. The UPA’s performance could be a lot better if Sonia Gandhi showed a bit of imagination and started the ‘trick’ herself, forcing Modi to be the ‘taker’. Instead, the Congress allowed Modi to deal first, as in a game of bridge, and the latter played Dalit, his strongest hand. As successive elections in Uttar Pradesh are showing, economic and demographic changes are making the backwards dump their traditional guardians, Congress and BSP, with a big chunk of them tasting BJP’s hospitality. If Sonia Gandhi had a better sense of the game, she could in fact accept CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechuri’s advice and put up Gopal Krishna Gandhi as UPA candidate. That would have left Modi with no option to tapping the dark and thick seam of bigotry, and hatred of Mahatma Gandhi, in BJP’s sub-soil. Besides, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who is supporting Kovid as he’s too eager to get his uneasy alliance partner Laloo Yadav off his back, by keeping Modi pleased, if necessary, would have thought many times over if he had to oppose a scion of the Mahatma and stay on the side of his abusers. That has a cost, of expulsion from the respectable class. But there is a silver lining in the Congress game-plan; it may finally bring SP-BSP-RLD-Congress on the poll table during 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Modi should have a reason to worry.

However, Presidential election cannot gauge public opinion as its electors comprise those already elected. Still, it is an occasion to get a sense of the kind of people running the majority group among the country’s lawmakers, big and small; their values and the respect they have for the illustrious countrymen whom majority of the people respect. In this sense, the Congress’ role is disappointing. For Modi’s Dalit, all it could offer was its own Dalit. And one like them, to be sure.  

Modi, Yogi and relay race

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

There is little doubt that the assembly election results in the mega-state of Uttar Pradesh, and the emergence of Yogi Adityanath as chief minister in its aftermath, has left the commentators spellbound! And that includes your faithfully. Two enigmas stand out to be resolved.

Trump, India & Modi

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

It is no longer a remote possibility. Though the US presidential election is still a good eight months away. But its time to brace up for White House to receive, as its next occupant, Donald Trump, "a bully, showman, party-crasher and demagogue" as TIME said in its cover story. "His (Trump's) is not the temperament of a stable, thoughtful leader", says Mitt Romney, 2012 Republican candidate. He called Trump a "phoney" who is "playing the American public for suckers", a man whose "imagination must not be married to real power". If it happens, how exactly will the world respond to a potential dictator elected as the 45th President of the USA?

The Shah of Blah

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

There is a popular belief that RSS, which is at the core of the saffron brotherhood now in power, was successfully put on the back burner by Atal Behari Vajpayee, India's first Prime Minister from BJP, while his successor Narendra Modi is so much an RSS insider that making extra efforts to drive him along the assigned ideological path is like preaching to the choir.

The notion is not entirely correct. It is true that Vajpayee was noticeably free from the dogmas that RSS is famous for, but he too had to occasionally stand up to pressure from K.S.Sudarshan, the purist sarsanghchalak during most part of his years as PM. In 1998, on the eve of Vajpayee being sworn in, Sudarshan arrived at his door with the request to keep out of cabinet two men: Jaswant Singh and Pramod Mahajan. Vajpayee buckled. But only temporarily and later both were rewarded handsomely with lucrative posts in the Cabinet. On the other hand, Modi is regarded as a picture of compliance. After becoming Prime Minister in 2014 May, he was open to accepting an entire crew groomed in the Sangh's two institutes, Vivekanada International Foundation (VIF) and India Foundation (IF)—ranging from principal secretary to PM Nripendra Mishra and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to a battery of ministers. It was at the Sangh's prodding that Mahesh Sharma, a trusted ideologue (he heads the influential Deen Dayal Upadhyay research cell), was given three portfolios including the culture. Last year, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat merely informed Modi that his favourite Krishna Gopal would replace Suresh Soni as the Sangh's coordinating official with BJP.

Modi may have obeyed the RSS' "suggestions" on appointment of ministers & governors but thousands of RSS and its affiliate organizations are still waiting in the wings to be accommodated in posts open to social workers/politicians/experts/professionals. This was despite the fact that Bhagwat accepted Modi's request that his Man-Friday Amit Shah be made the party president. But the RSS is finding it quite ridiculous that the Modi government is sliding down the slippery slope on most matters—be it the economy or elections—despite there being no shortage of ministers and officials trained in its approved institutes. It failed to learn any lesson from the party's Delhi debacle and got another humiliating defeat in Bihar.

The RSS is now caught in a tricky situation. It of course cannot let the party's downslide continue, but it cannot be confrontational with Modi or his team in the manner that Sudarshan often got with Vajpayee. Sudarshan used Swadeshi Jagaran Manch (SJM) to put roadblocks on the government's efforts to attract FDI. It is rumoured that Duttopant Thengadi of the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS), a long-time critic of Vajpayee, was unleashed to scupper the sale of loss-making public sector units. Vajpayee, the outsider, had to be broken in. But Modi thinks and acts like everyone in the RSS; he has got the traits in his DNA. 

Besides, Modi was brought into the race for PM's post after a long deliberation in the RSS, with many feathers ruffled, including that of L.K.Advani, the octogenarian former deputy prime minister. After the 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, when Vajpayee was determined to sack Modi as chief minister, it was RSS' diktat, communicated through Advani, that helped him retain his job. But RSS had a different chief in 2013, when the choice of Modi as PM candidate was made. It so enraged Advani that he resigned from the party's parliamentary board, though Bhagwat persuaded him to withdraw it the next day.

The trouble with Modi is that he has acted independently for far too long. In the process, he has lost the team spirit which is the hallmark of the Sangh. He is now given to act after hearing his close aides, and nobody else. Bhagwat was obviously feeling the necessity to make Modi listen, which is perhaps the reason why Soni, known for his closeness to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and fondness for Modi, had to be replaced by Krishna Gopal, a loyalist from Mathura. But the coordinator's post is of too modest a height to speak into the ears of a poplar like Modi. It calls for someone senior and deft, like former party president Nitin Gadkari, for that matter. In short, RSS feels the need to disabuse Modi of his rather presidential self-image, without denting his self-esteem in any way. Despite his government getting rather wobbly, Modi's personal image is at the high noon, as evident in the reception he got in London last week and the public applause for his spell-binding speech at the British parliament. He continues to remain the most popular leader.

Since RSS has abiding faith in Modi's leadership quality, it can communicate to him discreetly, through a party president of its choice. Election in the party is due early next year or may be delayed by a few months due to Assembly polls in 5 states in May-June. But Shah’s days of glory are drawing to a close. It is also the time for him to reflect on his own role in the party’s electoral decline. Though BJP elects its office-bearers as per the rules of the Election Commission, it is well known that the party’s president is hand-picked by RSS, his ‘election’ being merely rationalization after event. Bhagwat, a pragmatist, is known to have agreed on Shah at Gadkari’s request last year. Be that as it may, it was clearly RSS’s way of keeping the new leader, Modi, in good humour as Shah didn’t have a strong qualification except being Modi’s Man Friday.

Nor can Bhagwat let this opportunity go. Two rounds of internal deliberations in the RSS have already taken place, and the time has arrived for surgery, not mere course correction. A large number of states are going to poll in 2016-17, which will set the stage for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Bhagwat surely has a comprehensive list ready of the new personnel who would take charge of the party and the government in the new year. But his obvious priority is to identify a party president who can talk to the Prime Minister like an equal, not as an obedient factotum.

Shah faces Sangh Parivar heat

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive Report 

"Nobody contacted me… I am happy in my ministries," BJP leader tells Lokmat Times

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Nov. 12 :

Notwithstanding the assertions made by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh that Amit Shah will continue for next two terms as the BJP president, search has begun to select a new party chief in December-January itself. 

Highly placed sources in the RSS, the mother organization of the BJP, has signaled that "course correction" is the need of the hour as no lessons were learnt by the BJP leadership under Amit Shah after the humiliating defeat in January this year during the Delhi Assembly polls. 

Before leaving Delhi, the RSS chief, Mohan Bhagwat, reportedly gave a dressing down to Amit Shah for his failure in Bihar for the party's worst-defeat and for creating an opportunity to unify the Opposition parties against the BJP.

Though Rajnath Singh who held a long meeting with Mohan Bhagwat a day earlier, denied that he was in the reckoning for the party post, sources close to him say that he frankly told the RSS chief that he wants to return to the party. Rajnath Singh may have asserted that Shah will be re-elected for full three year term in Dec-Jan. But none in the Sangh Parivar is willing for his continuance. It would be pertinent to mention that Rajnath Singh was the party president in May, 2014 when it won 282 Lok Sabha seats. 

He wanted to continue as BJP chief. But the Prime Minister Narendra Modi insisted that he be brought in as Home Minister and Amit Shah be rewarded for winning 73 Lok Sabha seats in UP. The RSS buckled and agreed for Shah whose gamble paid off in Maharashtra, Jharkhand & Haryana. But in all these states, the Opposition parties were a divided lot and the BJP benefited.

After the Delhi & Bihar debacle, the RSS doesn't want to take chances as NDA has already ruled for 18 months and trust of the workers and voters has to be regained. 

These sources say Surface Transport & Shipping Minister Nitin Gadkari tops the list of probables for the next BJP president's post. Gadkari was party president in 2012 when he had to quit mid-way in an unsavory manner when media reported an Income-Tax raids on his Purti group of companies. Rajnath Singh was brought in as an interim president. Later, it turned out that there were no raids on Gadkari's companies. But the damage had been done. The Sangh Parivar also feels that Prime Minister and party president should not belong to the same state and it had made an exception at the explicit request of BJP leadership after the government was formed. Now a change of guard is the need of the hour and a more pleasant, acceptable and accommodative leader is required who can take the workers along.

Therefore, Gadkari fits into this scenario prevailing within the BJP and the Sangh Parivar. But he stoutly denies he is either in the reckoning or keen to become the party president. When Lokmat Times contacted him over the phone, he said, "Nobody has contacted me and nor I am interested..(to become the party president). I am very happy with what I am doing in my ministries…. focused on building highways and infrastructure development."

However, sources in the Parivar say that there is none in the party who can infuse confidence. Health Minister J P Nadda could have been stop gap arrangement in 2014. But certainly not in 2017 when the General Elections won't be very far away.

3-member committee to oversee political appointments

Modi placates RSS

Bhagwat to review Govt.’s  performance

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

In a significant development, the RSS and ruling BJP have evolved a new mechanism to meet the growing aspirations of thousands of party workers who loop up to the Modi government for suitable rewards.

POST-DATED PATRIOTISM

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Debate may be a sport but it is decidedly a way of communicating ideas. Buddhists did it in the past and so did ancient Romans. But with the ‘argumentative Indian’ having lately turned into ‘combatant Indian’, and parliamentary debates turning into such athletic feats as ‘rushing to the well of the House’, it is no wonder that the YouTube of Congress MP Shashi Tharoor’s fireworks at Oxford Union, will ‘go viral’, like an epidemic. In a debate, it is wit, argument and polish that count, but getting substance on one’s side is a long row to hoe. “Oxford debate is of a huge significance...it is good that Shahiji was there,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi complimented Tharoor.

It is another matter if Oxford debates are indeed of a “huge significance” but is it right, as Tharoor argued, that India could be a better place if the British had not occupied it? I am not sure if India’s political leaders have given the matter a thought as they must be thinking it a waste of time to ponder on what historians call “counter-facts”, or the study of the “what-if” scenarios. One doesn’t have to be a serious student of History at the DU where I studied. Even a cursory thinking could have shown the flimsiness of Tharoor’s logic, though his wit is overpowering, and his timing is like that of a Broadway actor. History is about the past which cannot be unmade, much as you cannot unring a bell. Things that are hideous monstrosities today were normal business in the past, like suttee or human sacrifice in our country. But a demand for reparation comes after a moral judgment. Could India be a better place to live if it were Clive, and not Seraj-ud-daula, who got slain in the 1757 battle of Plassey? There is yet another larger question; could there be a country called India if Clive hadn’t won in Plassey? Both these questions hinge on counter-facts.  

Such a situation would obviously have left much of India—particularly territories that subsequently emerged as the presidencies of Bengal, Madras and Bombay—in the dark Middle Ages, with the lives of ordinary citizens “nasty, brutish, short”, as philosopher Locke said it would be if there were no monarch. With the rule of later Mughals crippled by court intrigue, and invasion from the west, India was in a state of anarchy in the pre-British period. Regardless of who sat on the throne in Delhi, it was the local chieftain who fleeced the people with arbitrary laws and armies of thugs. The central highway of north India, made by Sher Shah Suri in another age, had almost disappeared by then due to encroachment and disrepair. What was left of it became unusable as thuggees, or highway stranglers, roamed around. Men were so afraid of burglary that storing life’s savings in underground vaults and all sorts of hidey-holes became customary.

If Clive had lost in Plassey, there would be continuous 

Muslim of Franco-Muslim rule and there would have been no 

Nehru or Modi to address from the ramparts

This gruesome existence is the fabric of India’s immediate pre-British past. And politicians with no clue to their own country’s history laud a talk-show artist, such as Tharoor. Tharoor indulges in sophistry when he says India accounted for 24 per cent of global trade at the time of its British conquest, and it became 4 per cent when the British left. Apart from pre-modern age economic data being highly questionable, it is also quite silly to boast of trade share when agricultural items alone were traded, and that too produced with only human hand and animal hooves.

The West rose to the top only after the industrial revolution moved apace. India fell to the bottom of the heap not because the British pulled it down but because Britain gave India railways and steam boats only to suit her purpose, not India’s. Would Seraj-ud-daula, or his progeny, have brought India enough rail engines and metalled roads and trucks to put the country at least at the same level where it was in 1947?

It is no-brainer that all Islamic powers on the east of Turkey were in an advanced stage of decay in the 18th century, and Seraj-ud-daula’s death following his defeat in Plassey was its coup de grace in India, delivered by the British. If it didn’t happen, or Tipu Sultan, for that matter, could escape death in 1801, maybe the French would have tried to colonize India, to be ultimately trumped by the British following Napoleon’s fall in Waterloo. But fifty years make too long a gap in history. If the British returned to India in the 19th century, it is doubtful if they would have bothered to rule over the entire country. For them, it would have sufficed to build a ring of forts on the coast to control the sea lanes and use the hinterland as plantation and its people as slaves.

It is nobody’s argument that the British landed in India to rule it as ‘benevolent dictator’ or ‘enlightened despot’. Tharoor is right in saying that India gave employment to Britain’s successive generations of youngsters who could not otherwise be employed. Growing automation of her domestic industry and high wages undermined the island nation’s capacity to keep its economy in full employment. But that does not imply that keeping Europeans out of India for two hundred years could be a good idea. Tharoor is of course justified in barking and yelling at Britain in a debating hall, but political leaders should be careful in expressing their approval, or otherwise, of views aired in a non-political arena.

A theory, for that matter, is afloat that Modi praised Tharoor to win him over after friendly noises he had been making for quite some time. For Modi, volunteering to be a jury on it is an existential issue. If Clive had lost in Plassey, there would be continuous Muslim of Franco-Muslim rule, and no Hindutva, no RSS, and, therefore, little chance of his addressing from the rampart of Red Fort. Isn’t he thankful to the British for making Hindus rulers again after a millennium?

(The author is National Editor, Lokmat group)

When will Modi cross the Delhi Rubicon ?

Is Narendra Modi set to be projected as the BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister in 2014? The media is looking for clues in everything he’s done or uttered since his expected victory last week in the Gujarat assembly elections. The fact that the first address he delivered after the results was in Hindi, not in Gujarati, is being parsed as a prominent straw in the wind, and so is the fact that he has committed to visit Delhi on December 27, a day after his oath-taking in Gandhinagar as Chief Minister, never mind that it is a pre-scheduled meeting of state chief ministers. Commentators have even counted that Modi used the word 'DESH' 24 times in his 45-minute speech, and so, they have speculated, it is South Bloc that must be looming large within his ken. It is being said that his victory speech is full of lines that are pregnant with meaning, such as, mein khel Dilli se jitna chahta tha, aaj wo khel janta ne mujhe jita diya (the game that I wanted to win from Delhi is the one that the people have made me win today). He also sought apologies if he had done anything wrong. But made no reference to any incident or act leaving his supporters to claim that he had done what was required.