by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group BJP may spring a surprise for the 4th RS seat in J&K The BJP is eyeing one of the four Rajya Sabha seats that will go to polls on October 24 in Jammu & Kashmir. This is despite the fact that the ruling dispensation in J&K and anti-BJP forces have a clear edge to win all the four seats. The alliance is confident of winning three seats on its own and capturing the 4th seat if all non-BJP parties come together. Since the election for four seats will take place in three tranches; one election for two RS seats together and for two seats in a staggered manner, the alliance has the edge. The J&K Assembly has 88 sitting members as two seats (Bigam and Nagrota) are vacant. Therefore, a candidate needs 45 seats to win an election. The Omar Abdullah led alliance enjoys the support of 53 legislators. This includes NC (41), Congress (6), CPM (1) and five Independents. The BJP has 28 MLAs while the PDP has three, People’s Conference and Aam Aadmi Party one each and two Independents who are unattached. But the election will take an interesting turn when the poll for the two seats will take place together and each candidate will need a minimum of 29 votes. The BJP, with its 28 MLAs, will need at least one additional vote to win. The BJP can bank on the support of two unattached Independents and any of the MLAs of the PDP, AAP or ensure cross-voting in the ruling alliance. The NC-Congress combine will be left with 24 surplus votes for the second seat and would need five votes extra to secure a victory over BJP's 28 votes and bank on the PDP (3), AAP (1), PC (1), and two unattached Independents. The BJP will obviously make all the efforts to win the fourth seat in J&K to send a right signal. -