by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
Varanasi no
cakewalk for Modi
Mystery
as to why BJP Prime ministerial candidate opted for Varanasi
Harish
Gupta
New Delhi,
March 20 :
There
is something baffling as to why BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi
chose Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency. By no stretch of imagination, Varanasi is considered
safe given the high voltage polarized campaign.
Even so-called BJP stalwart Dr
Murli Manohar Joshi who made a song and dance to retain Varanasi ticket, could barely win by 17000
votes in 2009. The Bahujan Samaj Party candidate Mukhtar Ansari had given Joshi
run for money in 2009 as he polled 1.86 lakh votes while Joshi 2.03 lakh votes.
Shocking still, Joshi polled a mere 30% votes of the total votes polled. The
BJP had suffered a humiliating defeat in 2004 Lok Sabha polls from Varanasi at
the peak of the ‘India shining’ campaign of Atal Behari Vajpayee.
Therefore,
it is rather surprising why Modi chose Varanasi
as the BJP never polled more than 35% votes even at the peak of the Vajpayee
wave in 1998-99.
Insiders
in the Modi camp say that without saying even a word of Hindutva, he will
polarise the votes not only on this card but also of his being a backward. He
is confident that Brahmins will vote for him as they did for Joshi. In
addition, he will secure 25% backwards. But the BJP never faced a common
candidate in Varanasi.
The
common candidate phenomenon was witnessed only twice in Varanasi when late
Chandra Shekhar contested in 1977 on the Janata Party ticket and Anil Shashtri
in 1989 on the Janata Dal ticket. Both the times, the Congress was routed.
Therefore,
Modi would have been fully aware that SP,BSP and Congress can come together in Varanasi. These three
parties together have been polling nearly 60% votes. It was a division of votes
amongst them that had made Joshi win the seat. But if they come together, its
like climbing the Everest.
Secondly,
the nominations for the Varansi seat begins only on April 15 and polling date is May 12. So why the BJP high command was in a hurry to
declare Modi’s candidature from the seat.
No one
really knows and one may have to wait for the answers.
But
one thing is clear; Modi has decided to buy the bait fully knowing its
political consequences.
Never
a safe seat for BJP either
· BJP
never polled more then 38% votes even at the peak of the Vajpayee wave in
1998-99.
· BJP
stalwart Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi could barely win by 17,000 votes in 2009.
· BJP
suffered a humiliating defeat in 2004 polls at the peak of the “India shining”
campaign.
Muslims, Dalits share 35% votes
There
are 20% Muslims amongst the nearly 16 lakh voters and around 15% Dalits. It was
largely on the back of this deadly combination that Mukhtar Ansari had secured
28% votes in 2009. But Mukhtar Anasi is not in the BSP anymore and Mayawati has
decided to field Vijay Prakash Jaiswal against Modi.
It
simply meant that she is targeting the Bania community along with Muslims and
Dalits. Jaiswal polled 60,000 votes in 2009 on the Apna Dal ticket. Since Apna
Dal and Mahaan Dal have joined hands with the BJP this time, Jaiswal joined
BSP.
Mayawati’s
move dashed the Congress hopes to field a common candidate against Modi. Though
AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh has offered to contest as a common
candidate. But the Congress is keen to field a Brahmin candidate and a
massive search is on. Pramod Tiwari’s name is under active consideration as he
is senior UP congress leader, recently elected to the Rajya Sabha with the
support of the Samajwadi Party. The fact that BSP’s Jaiswal is considered a
weak candidate, an interesting battle may be ahead.
Though
Arvind Kejriwal (AAP) will be going to Varanasi to test the waters on March 25,
he may spring a surprise. The AAP may offer to support a candidate on whom all
other parties agree. But a last word is yet to be written as Mayawati may play
her own political game.
