Ride on Elephant

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Here is a random sample of the Indian general elections and their acknowledged attributes.

1971—On Indira Gandhi’s Garibi Hatao slogan.

1977—Against dictatorship.

1980 –Against Janata Party mis-rule

1989—Against corruption.

1996—Fragmented polity & Hindutva.

2004—Against NDA’s “non-inclusive” growth model, encapsulated in its “India Shining” campaign.

Years roll by and so do issues. Move a little forward from now, say a year, and look back at the elections in the coming two months. What will posterity flag it as? As the one against corruption? Well, yes and no. The recent upsurge of AAP mirrors the pent-up rage in the people’s heart against graft at all levels—high and low, visible and invisible, reported and gagged. However, the dramatic trajectory of AAP raises another question, a very uncomfortable one, on whether a clean government is something that can be achieved through street protests. AAP’s short tenure in Delhi was quite unnerving as a “trailer”. It could be different, perhaps, if AAP had the magic key to a corruption-free India. But there is no evidence of that yet.

But then what is the 2014 poll about? What will be its defining attribute? Is it an election against inflation? Hmm...I think many readers will buy this argument, particularly if they are harassed housewives tired of haggling with the vegetable vendor who asks for a higher price almost every week. But that too may look different if you step back and view the big picture. The wholesale price inflation, which is used in measuring inflation in India, has ruled generally high, being 7.7 per cent annually on an average between 1969 and 2013. It spiked the highest to 34.7 per cent in the 1976 “Emergency” year. However, the law of averages being what it is, it is nobody’s argument that the all-round price rise since last year hasn’t left the people enraged. But it is a fact that the prices are stabilising, reaching 5.05 per cent year-on-year in January. By April, inflation may be yesterday’s story.

This search for the defining character of the ‘Super Vote’ should lead to a closer re-examination of the famous elections of the past. Were they really decided on public issues? Or was it because the caste and community alliances went just right for the winner (and wrong for the loser)? For instance, if Muslims of North India and some OBCs hadn’t voted with their feet against the Congress in 1977, it is doubtful if the outcome of the election could be as epochal as it turned out to be. In 1989 the “Mandal” fuse had just sparked a chain reaction that continues even today. It is therefore doubtful if Rajiv Gandhi was to be really routed for the Bofors scandal, or it was due to caste groups moving away from under Congress umbrella. Similarly, in 1996, post-Babri BJP could cause a substantial across-the-castes consolidation of non-Muslim votes in its favour in most northern states, notably UP. It left Mulayam Singh Yadav, a consummate player of the OBC caste card, perplexed and anxious. He got himself squeezed into a shell and refused to support BJP in 1996 just as he ditched Congress president Sonia Gandhi two years later. Finally, in 2004, Atal Behari Vajpayee’s government fell not because of the “India Shining” campaign, as Congress president’s leftist advisors want to believe, but because some of BJP’s NDA partners, Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan, for example, who are active in terrains which have considerable Muslim population, abandoned NDA like ship on fire after the 2002 Gujarat riots. The NDA lost many other allies too in 2004 including the DMK, NC.

Elections are therefore not so much about one or two ‘national issues’ sweeping across the electorate, as like in a partner dance in which who will “follow” depends on who is “leading”. BJP was unacceptable as leader in 2004. But, in its ten years in wilderness, it has succeeded on several counts. Here are a few of them:

*  Attracting Investment: Most regional political parties in India are languishing in the absence of big-ticket investments, putting on freeze creation of regular employment. They look wistfully at Gujarat under Modi, where most investment is focused;

*      The Muslim Factor: Modi has regained the confidence of those allies who deserted NDA in 2004 by ensuring not a single communal flare-up in the twelve long years since 2002. At least, it sells in adversity;

·*       Caste Card: BJP is playing the caste card down to a T this time round. The Dalits have switched between Congress and the caste-based parties. But now the Dalit universe has got fragmented. In Maharashtra, RPI leader Ramdas Athawale Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and BJP leader Gopinath Munde are known by the meaningful acronym ATM. In UP, Udit Raj, Vaiko of MDMK and Anbumani Ramadoss’ PMK—representing the lowermost segment of the Dalit communities—got DMK chief M. Karunanidhi expectedly reaching for the panic button. He immediately remembered that Modi is his long lost “friend” and a “hard working” person. The DMDK is getting ready to seal the alliance too.

Modi realised too early in the day that without partners, it will be like “hanooz dilli dooreste (Delhi is still far away.) As the General Elections are  being announced, India’s huge cauldron of castes and communities have begun to simmer. The fortunes of parties have changed mid-way many a times in the past - be it  1991 when Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination in midst of polling, brought the party back to power. It turned again in 1999, thanks to the Kargil war. Congress can still hope to undo some of the damage by sewing up alliances and getting BSP supremo Mayawati, perhaps the most powerful Dalit leader, on its side. Though she hasn’t been able to retain her Muslim support, it is undeniable that she holds a large part of the Dalit community of north India in her thrall. Nor do they question Behenji’s command. Deserted by allies and disliked by the middle class, Congress can still turn the outcome if it gets its pre-poll alliances and issues right. May be, an Elephant ride is good.

The 2014 Lok Sabha poll

is still an open book, media hype notwithstanding. 

He who seals alliances 

wins the race 

(The author is National 

Editor of Lokmat 

group of newspapers at 

Delhi)