Fly on the Wall - Mumbai model for new Congress Chief!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mumbai model for new Congress Chief!
How the new Congress president may be democratically elected in place of Sonia Gandhi if polls do take place for the coveted post? As many as 1400 plus AICC delegates & others have to be elected first and then they will elect a new CWC and eventually a president in February 2021 unless polls are postponed. The AICC managers hit upon a novel method and tested it in Mumbai to elect Mumbai Regional Congress Committee chief. It is now called the Mumbai Model. The General Secretary incharge of Maharashtra HK Patil sent a voice message to 450 designated party functionaries: I am AICC incharge HK Patil speaking. I seek your views on who should be the president of Mumbai Congress. After the beep, send just one name. Your answer will be kept confidential. Thank you”. No one knows who followed the drill and who didn’t. But the mandarins in the technical team of Rahul Gandhi working behind the scenes, took enough care that the process is executed with finesse. It’s a different matter that no one among 450 delegates knew till date who sent which name and how MRCC president was chosen. But one thing is clear that this Mumbai Model will may be executed in AICC polls too. Since Rahul Gandhi’s loyalists are determined to install him as party chief. The AICC media head, Randeep Surjewala has already said that 99.9% want Rahul as CP. He already knows the mind of 99.9% of the 1400 AICC delegates. The last word has yet to be written.

Rahul & his new mobile
When the 5-hour long meeting took place at Sonia Gandhi’s residence at 10 Janpath, Rahul & Priyanka were in tow to receive the invitees. The Gandhis wanted a virtual meeting over Zoom. But none of the dissidents including Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, Bhupinder Singh Hooda were ready for it. They insisted on a face-to-face meeting which Sonia Gandhi eventually agreed to. But many leaders were dismayed that Rahul Gandhi was glued to his new iPhone 12. A leader who was part of the meeting said Rahul remained busy with his mobile for nearly three hours. In between, he left the meeting twice to interact with Kamal Nath and A K Antony and attend to urgent calls. Sonia Gandhi, on the other hand, remained seated for full 5-hours without a break.

Hooda stuns the conclave

Former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda is a soft spoken person and rarely talks tough. But he was perhaps the only one among the dissidents to stun the gathering. Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma, Prithviraj Chavan and many other letter writers were speaking in a rather conciliatory tone. When Hooda’s turn came, he didn’t mince his words. Rather, he sent the chill in the otherwise warm weather in the sprawling lawns. Hooda said he is fighting a lonely battle in Haryana against the BJP which had pumped Rs 100 crores to win the Baroda Assembly seat in a bitter byelection. Yet he was able to defeat the BJP against all odds. Hooda did not stop there and went on to say that had he been made the leader of the party in Haryana three months prior to State Assembly polls last year, the Congress would have got the state. “Unfortunately, I am not accepted as leader in Delhi while people in Haryana adore me,” said Hooda in a pained voice. There was a silence of the grave.

Nadda’s rising clout
With BJP president J P Nadda down with Covid and recovering, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has taken charge of Assembly polls in West Bengal due next year. Shah was out of action in Bihar for some strange reasons. But now he is leading the onslaught on Mamata Banerjee from the front. However, Nadda is working overtime sitting home and played a key role in the selection of seven Union Ministers who were made inchage of seven regions for Assembly polls. It is learnt that the selections were made as per the PM’s desires and many favourite ministers were excluded causing surprises. Obviously, Nadda's graph has been risen after Bihar win and other polls. Only recently, a couple of Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states wanted to call on the PM. But Modi politely conveyed to them to first apprise the party president about the issues.

At least 20% sitting MLAs may lose tickets

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

At least 20% sitting MLAs may lose tickets

BJP's internal surveys wants purging of non-performers

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Sep 27

At least 20 to 30 per cent of the sitting MLAs in Maharashtra and Haryana may be shown the door by the ruling BJP in both the states. Of the sitting 122 MLAs who won on the BJP ticket in 2014, at least 22-25 may not be renominated. It transpires that the BJP's three internal surveys conducted during the past one year has concluded that new faces need to be to be brought to the fore. The party leadership at the Central level feels that in 2014 the situation was different as there was no alliance with the Shiv Sena and it had to make a lot of compromises and give tickets to certain leaders whom the party was disinclined to field. But it buckled under the pressure of various senior leaders. But times have changed and cleansing of the BJP itself is required. Secondly, the BJP's state incharge and party general secretary Bhupendra Yadav is a tough and thorough person. He would like the BJP to win almost every seat it contests. BJP president Amit Shah has also firmly told the state leaders that party should be in a position to win 150 out of 162 seats it is likely to contest. Though BJP is likely to contest 144 seats, it wants smaller parties to contest on its symbol. “Otherwise, they are free to take a walk,” said a senior BJP functionary.

Secondly, three surveys were done by different agencies and one was conducted internally directly under the watch of Bhupendra Yadav. It is felt that some outstanding personalities who have done well in fields other than politics be fielded. Its time that the BJP should draw talent from outside the political arena. Thirdly; the BJP has admitted a large number of leaders from other parties and some of them have to be accommodated and fielded during the Assembly polls to send the signal to those who are waiting in the wings. If sources are to be believed, at least 20 sitting MLAs may lose the tickets.

The situation in Haryana is no different where the party is going it alone for the 90-member Assembly. It has 47 MLAs who won on its symbol in October 2014. Now the Opposition is completely divided and fragmented unlike Maharashtra. Therefore, the BJP wants to deny ticket to at least 15 sitting MLAs based on the internal assessment and surveys.

The list will be declared after the BJP's Parliamentary board meeting on September 29 when the Prime Minister returns from his week long foreign tour.

Ends 

Rahul Reluctant campaigner in Assembly polls

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Rahul Reluctant campaigner in Assembly polls

Congress banking on Sonia, Priyanka

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Sep 26

There is intense speculation in the Congress whether former Congress president Rahul Gandhi will campaign in Maharashtra and Haryana in the ensuing Assembly polls.

The speculation gained momentum as Rahul Gandhi has become incommunicado and stays away from party activities. Except for visiting his parliamentary constituency Wayanad in Kerala, he is not taking interest in party affairs.

he has shunned meeting even the senior leaders and did not attend the CWC meeting and other meetings. So much so that when senior leaders like Ghulam Nabi Azad wanted to inquire through his office if he would be campaigning for the Haryana Assembly polls, he did not get any response. Though he has not said a "No" to the campaigning but he has not consented as yet.

If sourcese are to be believed, Rahul Gandhi is expected to participate in the foot march (Padyatra) from Gandhi Ashram in Wardha. But its a non-political program and not part of the poll campaign.

However, there are indications that Congress president Sonia Gandhi, despite not so good health, will address a couple of rallies in the two states. Priyanka Gandhi, incharge of UP, may visit Haryana as she is under extreme pressure from the state leaders including Sejia, B S Hooda and others.

The Congress' leadership problem is that it doesn't have star campaigners except the Gandhis and sword of uncertainty is hanging. Even Navjot Singh Sidhu has gone in hibernation.

The party is in the process of compiling a comprehensive list of its campaigners in the Assembly polls.

However, Rahul Gandhi is active on twitter stridently opposing the abrogation of Article 370 despite the party officially had been coy. In fact, the party has allowed different voices to be expressed by its leaders sensing the mood of the people.

Rahul Gandhi has been poking fun at PM Modi for HOWDY, Modi at Houston and on other issues.

This is the only visible line of communication he has kept open with the party.

Otherwise, he is confined to reading books, watching TV on the big screen at his Tughlaq Road residence, visiting Khan market with a couple of close friends, rigorous workout at the gym at home and talking to non-political friends.

Ends 

BJP struggling to formulate winning strategy

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Special Report 

BJP struggling to formulate winning strategy

As Kejriwal Praises Modi, supports Article 370

Javadekar working overtime to turn tide  

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, Sep 15

The BJP leadership may be on 7^th Heaven in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand going to polls in October-November. But its plate is full of problems when it comes to Delhi.

Sensing trouble ahead, the party has replaced Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman with senior leader and Cabinet Minister Prakash Javadekar, as incharge of Delhi affairs. Though Assembly polls are five months away. But Javadekar is holding district wise meetings seeking suggestions to formulate a winning strategy on a daily basis. The BJP has not won Delhi Assembly for the past 21 years.

The challenge before the party is how to counter the sops and freebies offered by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Javadekar has advised the local leadership not to unnecessarily criticise Kejriwal’s welfare schemes. The level of anti-incumbency against the Kejriwal government is still being assessed. The BJP is also baffled as to why Kejriwal has stopped criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi by name for the past couple of months. The AAP even voted in favour of abrogation of Article 370 in Parliament.

The BJP's another serious problem is whether it should project a chief ministerial candidate during the assembly polls or make it BJP vs Kejriwal. The BJP had burnt its fingers when it projected Kiran Bedi as CM face and lost badly in January 2015.

When a BJP leader, who wanted relief for residents of unauthorised colonies, Javadekar advised them not to talk to the media on the issue. The government was alive of it and responding, he said. Unauthorised colonies are a major vote-bank in Delhi, as they are home to 30-35 per cent of the city’s population.

Javadekar directed the local leadership to launch a full-blown attack on the Congress over corruption and Chidambaram the poster boy of the Congress. The BJP suspects that Congress and AAP will have some tacit understanding and wants to convert it into an opportunity.

Ends

Indecision in BJP delays tickets in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Indecision in BJP delays tickets in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh

Sitting MP s on Chopping Block 

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 7

The BJP leadership is in a serious dilemma as to what it should do in Delhi, Punjab, Chandigarh and remaining two seats in Haryana. In all, the BJP has announced 406 candidates for the Lok Sabha polls and announcement for the 31 seats has been withheld. This include all the seven LS seats in Delhi, three out of 13 in Punjab, lone seat in Chandigarh and two in Haryana.

The leadership wants to do a major surgery in Delhi as there is huge anti-incumbency against some of the seven sitting M Ps.

Sources in the party say that at least three sitting Lok Sabha MP s may be shown the door including Meenakshi Lekhi, Lok Sabha MP from New Delhi, Udit Raj from North West and and Mahesh Giri from East Delhi. Gautam Gambhir is set to get the nomination from New Delhi after he made his maiden entry in the party a few days ago. Udit Raj has been voicing his concerns against some of the policies of the party. Though he was brought with big fan fare. But his performance in the constituency was a matter of concern. The third victim could be Mahesh Giri from East Delhi. Union Cabinet Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan may be shifted to East Delhi and a new face may enter Chandni Chowk where Kapil Sibal may be a common Opposition candidate if there is an alliance between AAP-Congress.

The BJP leadership is extremely worried in Delhi despite claims of massive Modi wave and wants to bring new faces to avoid any anti-incumbency. A Congress-AAP alliance will surely give the BJP run for the money as Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal continues to command following among the poor sections of the society. His hard bargaining with the Congress to concede seats in Haryana, Punjab and Goa in lieu of three seats in Delhi is delaying the process.

But many in the BJP feel that this shows party's weakness and sending a wrong signal. In all likelihood the party may announce its candidates for the remaining seats of Haryana, Punjab and Delhi within the next 48 hours.

It now transpires that the BJP leadership is undecided whether to field a Jat candidate from Rohtak or a non-Jat. Chief Minister Manoharlal Khattar feels that a non-Jat be pitted from Rohtak as the non-Jats are against Hoodas.

The BJP failed to win three seats in Haryana during the massive Modi wave and Rohtak was one of them. In Punjab, the BJP-Akalis alliance is in serious trouble where Capt. Amrinder Singh of Congress is very strong.

A search for candidates by the BJP in Amritsar, Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur is on.

Ends

THE BUSINESS OF POLITICS

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

While the Supreme Court has, in its indisputable wisdom, held it unnecessary to probe the mysterious scribbling on confiscated files of Sahara and Aditya Birla Group officials regarding payments made to politicians, the cloud of suspicion will not lift anytime soon. It is largely because that politics in India is fuelled almost entirely by illicit financing from corporate. In the 2013 CBI raid on Hindalco, the ABG company, a set of documents was recovered from the computer of the CEO which read: “Gujarat CM—Rs. 25 crore. 12 paid. 13?” Yet another Income-Tax Department raid in November 2014 on the Noida office of the Sahara Group led to seizure of computer data pointing to distribution of Rs 115 crore to political leaders specifically identified. Rs 40 crores given at Ahmedabad to “Modiji”. Rs 10 crores given to “CM Madhya Pradesh”. Rs 4 crore to “CM of Chattisgarh”. Rs 1 crore to “CM of Delhi” (Shiela Dixit at that time). The attempts by the companies to make these appear to be innocuous business transactions were ludicrous. The Hindalco CEO told investigators all he meant by “Gujarat CM” was “Gujarat Alkalis and Chemicals.” Then what did “C” and “M” stand for? The official had no answer.

Published in LokmatTimes on 17th Jan

The honourable Supreme Court, however, has found these papers to be of “little evidentiary value” as there was no “corroborating evidence”. In the context of Indian politicians, I don’t see how rational it is to expect that politicians would accept illegal payments and issue signed receipts. Nor will the alleged payment show up on the list of assets of the payee. Even if it did, it would not be an easy job for the investigator to access the VIP account book. On the other hand, the practice followed from Jain Hawala case in the 90’s is to let investigators carry on with their job regardless of proof of receipt. In the Jain Hawala case, the court issued “continuousmandamus” to CBI to find evidence for prosecution. It is another thing that the exercise was a blot on the judiciary as everything was done at the instance of the SC and it was thrown into the dustbin by the SC later.

More significantly, to close investigation into such doubtful payments on the ground of their inadmissibility as evidence may weaken the government’s case against, say, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. The party’s MPs Sudip Bandyopadhyay and Tapas Pal were in CBI custody and now in judicial lock up. Their detention is largely due to jottings in a diary reportedly belonging to Gautam Kundu, owner of Rose Valley Corporation, a Ponzi-scheme firm (much like Sahara) which is alleged to have had collected nearly Rs 20,000 crore by duping the public with promises of unrealistic returns. Until sufficient evidence is obtained to prosecute the MPs, it will not only weaken CBI’s case but add credence to TMC chief and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s charge. It was Ms Banerjee who charged that her party is a victim of witch hunt as she was the first to oppose Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s November 8 decision to scrap 500- and 1000-rupee notes.

Published in LOKMAT on 17th Jan

It is obvious that the ‘great Indian swindle’ of winning elections and extending political influence with corporate slush funds and, increasingly, with money collected from ordinary people by modern avatars of fraudster Charles Ponzi a century ago, is not easy to go. It is linked with a section (29C) in the Representation of the People Act that allows donors under Rs 20,000 to go anonymous. It is not difficult to see that the invisible donors, who contribute nearly 70-80 per cent of the funds of political parties, are channelling either tax-evaded cash of business houses, or it is, as is increasingly evident, a large share of ordinary people’s savings.

Can this evil be fought off by streamlining the election law? The Prime Minister has lent (verbal) support to a move to bring down the limit of ‘anonymous donation’ to political parties from Rs 20,000 to its one-tenth, Rs 2,000. Alternatively, there are suggestions to change the law by making all political donations open to public viewing, as is the practice in most western democracies. It may be a good beginning for cleansing the political system. But is it enough?

Published in Lokmat Samachar on 17th Jan

I doubt it. Electoral politics in India was always expensive due to the country’s size, not to speak of its topographic and cultural diversity. Over the decades, it has been witnessed that mere cost of election campaign is a fraction. On the other hand, it involves coaxing and cajoling pressure groups to stay on board, which is costly. Caste leaders or clan heads need to be kept happy. The hands of support are extended to the highest bidder. Election also involves winning over a sizeable chunk of the bureaucracy. On the election day, a ‘friendly’ police chief or an ‘amiable’ magistrate is worth a thousand ordinary party workers.

It is obvious that the funds required for such a gigantic operation cannot be sourced from nameless ‘well-wishers’. Nor can corporate houses alone bear the cost, as the chief source of their expendable black wealth, is shrinking following trade contraction worldwide. The tax evasion through over-invoicing or under-invoicing is becoming extremely difficult world-wide. The future of political funding will, therefore, rest on Ponzi operations like those of Sahara, Rose Valley or the infamous Saradha Finance, also involving the TMC party. Investigation of Saradha and Rose Valley have shown that their tentacles have spread far and wide—to Haryana, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Assam and Jharkhand, not to speak of West Bengal. The ordinary Indian has strong saving instincts but few instruments to save. Banks are rare, a stark fact that came to light in the wake of the recent demonetisation. Poor man is dependable on these swindlers in every nook and corner of the country as banks were never for the poor. That makes the common man a prey of fund swindlers, so long as they are ready to share the booty with politicians powerful enough to protect them.

HARRYING ON HARYANA

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Haryana is unique in many ways. Its newness, being carved out of East Punjab as late as 1966, is set off by its rapid rise to the frontline of a bouquet of accomplishments. It is the second wealthy state of India, after Goa. It is most advanced agriculturally, with the largest number of rural crorepati.Haryana’s mix of high-end industry, like automobile and ancillaries, with the post-industrial chrome-and-glass modernity of Gurgaon, and its IT empires, is unparalleled by Indian standards.