Baffling divide in voting pattern in Phase-I

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Exclusive report

Baffling divide in voting pattern in Phase-I

Bumper voting in North East, W. Bengal, Assam

Massive fall in Bihar, Uttrakhand

20% Less poll in Yavatmal-Washim, 15% less in Chandrapur

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 13

With the release of latest figures of polling on 91 Lok Sabha seats in Phase-I on April 11, by the Election commission today, startling facts have surfaced. 

Contrary to earlier reports, it has now emerged that 24% less voting took place in Bihar's four Lok Sabha seats that went to polls on April 11 compared to 2014. In Aurangabad alone, the voting was 31.50% less compared to 2014 and same happened in Gaya, Jamui and Nawada. Pollsters are unable to decipher the riddle of this huge collapse despite the alliance between BJP-JD(U)-LJP.

In Maharashtra's Yavatmal-Washim Lok Sabha seat, the voting was 20% less compared to 2014 polls when 81.27% came out. This time, the EC said 61.9% came out to vote. Similarly, 15% less voting was witnessed in Chandrapur this time, according to EC figures compared to 2014.

Same pattern was witnessed in Uttrakhand where voter was completely apathetic. The BJP had captured all the five seats in Uttrakhand as the polling was as high as 73.19 % in 2014. But this time, the voting was 59.89% only which is 14% less. In UP too, the voting was 1.50% less on eight seats.

But in contrast, bumper voting was witnessed in Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, West Bengal and even Odisha. In West Bengal's two seats 10% more votes were polled and same happened in Manipur. In Assam, 6% more voting took place indicating favourable climate for the BJP. In 2014 the voting was 72.29% while in 2019 it went up to 79%. Odisha witnessed a marginal rise in voting. But it indicates BJP's popularity in four seats. In Mizoram and Meghalaya the voting was less where the BJP is on a weak wicket due to various local factors and NRC. It was, however, surprising that even Arunachal Pradesh witnessed 7% less voting for two seats. Minister of State for Home Kiran Rijiju is contenting from Arunachal Pradesh (West). But the bumper polling in most parts of the North East suggest that BJP is on a comfortable wicket.

Ends 

Moderate polling sends BJP into a Tizzy

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Phase-I

Moderate polling sends BJP into a Tizzy

Tough to retain 32 seats

Congress struggling to cross 7 seats mark

Regional parties dominate

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, April 12

If the moderate to low polling in most of the 91 Lok Sabha seats across 20 states is any indication, neither the BJP and nor the Congress has any reason to cheer. The BJP will be lucky to retain its tally of 32 seats it won during 2014 Modi wave in the first phase. The 2 to 5% less polling in the Hindi heartland of UP, Bihar and Uttrakhand and Maharashtra too has caused worries within the BJP core group. A steep fall of almost 10% less polling in Assam has jeopardized BJP's ambition of winning all five seats in the state. The BJP had won four seats in 2014 while the Congress one.

It is not if the BJP faced a rather tough battle to retain the windfall gains of 2014, the Congress was sailing easy. It won 7 seats out of 91 in 2014 and is struggling very hard to cross the figure. It won two seats in undivided Andhra Pradesh and is unlikely to get any seat this time. It did not win any seat in Maharashtra or Hindi heartland. The Congress' remaining five seats came from the North East. This time, except for Assam, it is unlikely to retain these seats due to rise of the regional parties in North East. Of course, it is back in the race in Maharashtra with its ally NCP in Maharashtra and giving the BJP-SS run for the money in all seven seats. Pollsters who keep track of voting patterns and conduct Exit polls but cannot come out with their forecast say that there is a bitter fight on three seats where anything can happen.

But the real battle is in UP where BJP is faced with strong SP-BSP-RLD combine on all the eight seats which the BJP had won in 2014. In four of these eight seats, the Congress has given tacit support to the Gathbandhan by putting up such candidates who will indirectly help the combine.

For example, in Ghaziabad, it put up Dolly Sharma, a Brahmin who will eat into Gen. V K Singh's votes while in Gautam Buddh Nagar, Arvind Singh Chauhan, a Thakur, will hurt BJP's Dr Mahesh Sharma. Similarly, in Kairana, Congress's Jat candidate will hurt the BJP's candidate while in Meerut BJP's Rajendra Agarwal will be badly hurt by Congress's Baniya candidate Harendra Agarwal. The Congress has not fielded any candidate in Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar from where Jayant Chaudhary and Ajit Singh were contesting.

But on the remaining two seats, the Congress has put up strong candidates - Imran Masood in Saharanpur and Naseemuddin Siddiqui in Bijnor.

The division of votes may help the BJP here. Of the four seats in Bihar, the BJP won all the three seats and 4^th went to ally LJP. This time, it is contesting only one seat and gave two to the JD (U). Thus the BJP will have to struggle hard to retain 32 seats rather than gaining.

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Seven Union ministers eyeing Rajya Sabha seats

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Seven Union Ministers are in the race for 17/18 Rajya Sabha seats that the BJP is likely to win during the ensuing biennial polls due on June 11. The term of these seven ministers including one belonging to the TDP is expiring in July.