by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

Rahul's New Gamble 

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has emerged a new champion of reservation for the Other Backward Castes (OBCs). Obviously, those watching the Congress for decades were surprised as the Congress had stoutly opposed reservations in jobs to the OBCs other than the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). Rahul Gandhi did not stop at providing merely reservations for the OBCs but also advocated that reservations should be at per their population. This baffled even the age-old supporters of the Congress Party. But none of the senior leaders raised any voices considering the larger game plan of keeping the flocks of Mandal parties who are now part of I.N.D.I.A. Rahul Gandhi is well aware that most of the upper castes have already moved towards the BJP while Muslims have been voting for regional parties and OBCs for the Mandal parties. The Congress's vote bank is fast dwindling and confined to a few states. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi has joined the bandwagon of propounding the cause of the OBCs saying,”Jinti Abadi, Utna Haq”. But there is a trail behind Rahul Gandhi's new found love for the OBCs. The author is aware that Rahul Gandhi used to visit late Sharad Yadav frequently at his 7 Tughlaq Road residence even when he was in wilderness after parting company with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. When prodded, Yadav revealed that Rahul Gandhi has been visiting him to understand the caste-system in India and how the Dravidian movement in South changed the political landscape and how it traveled to North since the days of Ram Manohar Lohia to V P Singh. With Congress joining the Mandal bandwagon, it is argued that the OBCs and Muslims will change the political landscape in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

PM harping on “Garibi Hatao”

Strange it may sound but true that the BJP has not blasted Rahul Gandhi for advocating “Jitni Abadi Utna Haq” as vociferously as was expected. After initially criticizing Rahul Gandhi, the BJP went back into a shell. The BJP is aware that INDIA, a group of around 28 UN-homogeneous parties may be able to dent it in some of the states including UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh etc.

Prime Minister Modi, himself an OBC, has already hit the ground with his focus on Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). He is strongly pitching on “Garibi Hatao” and those below the poverty line will be given the benefits. In addition, the BJP is focusing on women voters as a class with the reservation of 33% jobs. Historically, no party at the national level has won an election on the OBC plank. The Janata Dal under V P Singh considered as a messiah of the OBCs had to lick the dust in the 1991 Lok Sabha polls and the likes of Deve Gowda could not win votes outside Karnataka. It transpires that the Modi government is working on the Rohini Commission report and coming out with a new policy to give benefits to the poor among all the castes and create a new class. Modi may unfold his strategy either in the November's Winter or the Budget session.

Private Power play in Ministries

The Modi government is heavily banking on hiring talent from outside on a contract basis rather than relying on bureaucrats who came through stiff competition in government jobs. While some of the key positions in the financial sector had been handed over to non-Babus such as SEBI, PESB, CCI and other institutions. But it transpires that private companies are hired in a big way to handle publicity and image building campaigns of many ministries of the government. The trained staff at the Press Information Bureau (PIB) looks after the ministries as per their assignment. But the social media, publicity and strategy of more than a dozen ministries is being handled by private players. They have been hired on contract to come out with out-of-the-box thinking and plan campaigns to make a big impact. It is not immediately known whether these private companies have been hired through a competitive bidding or as per the likes of the powers that be. But the purpose is to come up with a strategy to popularize the Modi government's more than 100 welfare schemes on X (formerly twitter), FaceBook and other social media platforms.

Tailpiece: Raghav Chadha, AAP's Rajya Sabha MP, is facing tough times and that too immediately after he tied the knot last month. If on the one hand he is engaged in a bitter battle with the Rajya Sabha secretariat to retain his type VII house allotted to him by previous Chairman N Venkaiah Naidu, he is also in troubled waters due to liquor scam. Raghav Chadha, married to actress Parineeti Chopra, had to cancel the marriage reception planned in Delhi and Mumbai after the wedding in Udaipur. It transpires that the family members of Parineeti Chopra were not enthusiastic either about the marriage as cousin sister Priyanka Chopra, a global celebrity, missed the event though her mother Madhu Chopra was present.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

No Mega Probe Agency

If reports emanating from the Prime Minister's Office are any indication, a move to create a new post of Chief Investigating officer (CIO) to head a new oversight probe body has been put on the back burner. The new oversight body was to be created to oversee the investigation part of the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) and the CBI. The stated objective to create this mega probe agency was to bring better coordination among them for all kinds of economic offenses. The current body- Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB) – is considered a toothless wing under the Finance Ministry. It was felt that the new oversight body will replace the CEIB and will be given statutory powers. The government felt that there is a lot of overlap in the areas of investigation of the ED, CBI and other agencies and a CIO would bring better synergy among them. This will be on the lines of the post of the Chief of Defence Staff and the National Security Adviser.

It has been speculated that the post of the Chief Investigation Officer (CIO) in this new oversight body will go to Sanjay Mishra who was Director of the ED, had changed the face of this probe agency during his five years stint. Mishra's work at the ED was so outstanding that the current dispensation gave him one extension after the other even after his two years fixed tenure. The government even requested his continuance due to the ongoing review of the Financial Action Task Force, a global money laundering body in the Supreme Court. But the Supreme Court kept prodding the government to relieve Mishra as he had been given several extensions and finally he was relieved of the post. It was in this background that the government planned to create the new oversight body and anoint Mishra as CIO. But the PMO is reported to have dragged its feet considering that it may have some adverse effect in an election year and create an avoidable controversy. The idea has been put on the back burner but not buried.

BJP's mounting problems

The BJP high command may have fallen back upon regional satraps in the key states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly polls by fielding Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh respectively. But it held back the name of Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan for some strange reasons. The BJP high command had already told her that she will not be the face of the party for the post of Chief Minister. It is yet not clear whether she will be given a ticket or not. But some of her key supporters have already been denied the ticket in the first list. Even the Prime Minister while addressing a rally in a poll bound state had declared that the BJP's “Kamal” will be the face of the party and not anybody. Surprisingly, the PM refrained from prodding the crowd that they should have faith in him. On earlier occasions, the PM had been asking the crowds to vote for Modi and have faith in him. But during the current campaign, he is asking the people to vote for “Kamal Ka Phool”. It may be a tactical shift in his approach and shifting focus from an individual to the party.

There is considerable speculation in the BJP whether Vasundhara will accept this humiliation and take it lying down. She has not uttered a word in public and even her family members including four time Lok Sabha MP Dushyant Singh was heard saying, “We are all here because of her and justice must be done.” But one of her tweets indicated that the last word of her possible action has not been written. She wrote on “X”, “Just a day before yesterday I was on a tour of Barmer-Jaisalmer and even today the people of Malani and the public representatives have shown the same kind of affection, respect and hospitality towards me" with pictures of herself surrounded by crowds, hours after appearing to have been snubbed on Modi's stage at a rally in Jodhpur. Though she was given a place on the stage with the PM but did not address the meeting  and did not exchange a word throughout. However, she has not given up  and is traveling across the state and seeking blessings of prominent Hindu religious leaders. Will she give up? No one is sure.

BJP's unending LoP search

The BJP seems to be in serious trouble in Karnataka as well and facing its Waterloo even in defeat. After losing Assembly polls it has not been able to pick up its leader in the State Assembly even after six months. While the names of the former CM, Basavaraj Bommai, and those of R Ashoka and Basanagouda Patil Yatnal are doing the rounds for the post, the party has been struggling with infighting. Former Chief Minister B S Yediyurrapa is insisting that his son be nominated as the Leader of Opposition to retain the party's Lingayat base. But the high command is not yielding.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP high command wants Scindia to Contest Assembly polls

There is considerable pressure on Union Cabinet Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia to contest for the Assembly polls particularly after his aunt and four-time sitting MLA Yashodhara Raje Scindia opting out of the race. Ever since she had written to the BJP expressing her unwillingness to contest the upcoming assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, citing pressing health reasons due to Covid, speculation about her nephew's Vidhan Sabha debut has gained ground.

Yashodhara Raje Scindia has been infected with COVID-19 four times since the pandemic began.

It transpires that the BJP high command wants that all heavyweights in Madhya Pradesh should contest the Assembly polls to ensure that the party gets a clear majority. The BJP has announced 136 candidates out of 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh so far. The list of 136 candidates include seven Members of Parliament including three Union Ministers like Narendra Singh Tomar and Prahlad Patel. The high command wants Scindia to cintet either from his aunt's Shivpuri seat or any of the two other seats in Guna -- Bamori or Kolaras. These three assembly segments are part of Scindia's erstwhile Lok Sabha seat Guna, which he lost as sitting Congress MP to BJP's Dr KP Yadav in the 2019 general elections.

The BJP is putting its best foot forward as several internal surveys had predicted that the party is lagging behind the Congress. Though the AAP, BSP and GGP and other smaller parties are damaging the Congress in the Assembly polls. But BJP doesn't want to take any chances and may field more senior leaders in this bitter battle.

But Scindia is not keen as Congress is targeting him for bringing down the Kamal Nath government. The last list of the BJP's remaining candidates will be declared on October 15 say these sources.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Indian agencies on alert after Hamas attack on Israel

Indian security and intelligence agencies are on high alert after the terrorist attacks in Israel killing hundreds and wounding thousands of persons. While the unprecedented attacks on Israel by hundreds of Hamas armed soldiers is considered a massive intelligence failure of its agencies, it has made many countries across the globe to go into a huddle.

Since India is a strategic partner of Israel, it has all the more reason to be on alert as it has estranged neighbors across the borders.

India has also unequivocally condemned and denounced the terrorist attack and Prime Minister Modi was among the first to take to social media, posting on X (formerly Twitter) expressing solidarity with Israel.

It is learnt that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval held discussions with heads of country's various security and intelligence agencies including RAW, Intelligence Bureau, Military Intelligence, Seema Suraksha Bal (SSB) and those handling anti-terror operations. The agencies are already on high alert due to Khalistani activists raising their heads in Canada, UK, Australia and other countries and the latest attack on Israel has sent shock waves across the globe. India has added reasons to be worried and doesn't want to be taken off-guard as Israel's Mossad is considered the world's super intelligence agency.

India is facing a similar situation in Jammu & Kashmir from across the border where militants from across the borders are infiltrating and involved in targeted killings. Though they were on the back foot and terror activities were decreased considerably. But lately, they are raising their heads again.

The Central and state armed Police forces are also being advised to take immediate steps to internal religious or regional conflicts in India and must step up their efforts to protect ethnic harmony.

With Pakistan and Afghanistan expressing their solidarity towards Palestine, urging for an immediate cessation of hostilities, India has reason to be worried too.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Clamour for caste survey grows in states

Even as the Prime Minister Modi accused the Opposition of playing with the “emotions of the poor and divided the country on caste lines” clamour is gaining ground in states to release caste surveys of the OBCs.

But the Congress is unruffled and moving fast to grab the opportunity and directed state leaders to act fast on the issue before the notification of elections is issued by the Commission.

The Odisha government headed by Naveen Patnaik has declared to release the findings of the Caste-Census. Though unofficially figures are already out. There is extreme pressure on the Karnataka government to release the Caste survey report conducted during the first stint of the Siddaramaiah tenure in 2013-2018.

In Madhya Pradesh, state Congress chief Kamal Nath said that his party will conduct a caste survey if it came to power. It was the Kamal Nath government which increased the OBC reservation quota from 14% to 27% in 2019. In Chhattisgarh, a similar survey of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) is being conducted.

The Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission (MSBCC) has started the process for a socio-economic and caste census in Maharashtra. The state assembly has approved a resolution in this regard.

The Kerala government has asked the State Commission for Economically Backward Classes to conduct a survey to find out the economic backwardness of the forward castes.

In Tamil Nadu, the reservation had touched 69% which includes OBCs far above the 50% limit set by the Supreme Court. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, an OBC has supported a caste survey saying higher representation to OBCs as per their population in jobs and education. In Uttar Pradesh, there is silence in the ruling BJP but key allies including Union Minister Anupriya Patel have already supported the demand of Caste Survey in the state.