Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Uddhav Thackeray relents, speaks to Yashwant Sinha, No support yet

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group


Uddhav Thackeray relents, speaks to Yashwant Sinha, No support yet

Sinha visiting Mumbai on July 17

Harish Gupta

New Delhi, July 8

All eyes are set on Maharashtra on July 17 when joint Opposition presidential candidate Yashwant Sinha visits Mumbai to solicit support. While the NCP and Congress have committed their support to Sinha, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has been dragging its feet in announcing support after his government fell.


Sources said that Sinha was trying hard to speak to Uddhav Thackeray over the phone. But Uddhav was extremely busy due to a variety of reasons. It is said that many of his Mps and remaining 14-15 MLAs do not want to be seen to be opposing first Tribal presidential candidate Draupadi Murmu. Uddhav Thackeray, however, spoke to Sinha yesterday.

Sanjay Raut, a senior Sena leader and Rajya Sabha MP, confirmed to Lokmat today that Sinha spoke to Uddhav Thackeray. “However, we will decide in the next couple of days on the issue of Sinha,” Raut disclosed. Though no whip can be issued to the party MLAs and Mps. But the party has to decide on the issue in the wake of fresh developments.

There are apprehensions that Murmu may get the support of more than 180 MLAs out of 287 member Maharashtra Assembly. Each MLA has 175 votes and all MLAs account for 50,225 votes. The BJP-Sena (Shinde group) has the support of 165 MLAs. But there is a likelihood of more MLAs voting for Murmu.

Similarly, each MP has 708 votes. Though no formal division in the 19-member Shiv Sena Parliamentary Party in Lok Sabha has taken place. But there is a possibility that many of them may vote for Murmu too.

Thursday, March 10, 2022

Huge loss for Congress in Rajya Sabha

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
The hopes of many congress leaders to get a Rajya Sabha seat from Punjab have been dashed to the ground with the AAP sweeping the Assembly polls. Even the BJP and Akali Dal together cannot claim a single Rajya Sabha from the state. The AAP will have a bonanza of winning at least four out of five Rajya Sabha seats.

Be it Shamsher Singh Dullo or Pratap Singh Bajwa,both will retire on April 2 from the Rajya Sabha and are unlikely to return in future. Since the Rajya Sabha polls for three seats will be held first, each candidate will require 40 votes. The AAP will win at least two seats in the first round of Rajya Sabha polls. The third seat could go to the Opposition parties if Congress, Akali Dal and BJP and others could come together. Otherwise, the third seat will also go to the AAP.

Then the biennial poll for two seats will be held where 117 MLAs will elect them. Naresh Gujral (Akali Dal ) and Shwait Malik (BJP) will also retire from the Rajya Sabha. It is ironic that a new party like AAP will send another batch of 4-5 Rajya Sabha MPs in Parliament. The mandate of Punjab is such that AAP will sweep the Rajya Sabha polls and Congress strength in the Rajya Sabha will dwindle from 34 to 31. It is also losing a seat in Himachal Pradesh (Anand Sharma) and one in Assam.

It is a huge setback to Congress and Akali Dal.
Maharashtra’s Jaiswal new RAW Chief!
Maharashtra’s senior IPS officer of the 1985 batch Subodh Kumar Jaiswal seems to be a lucky man. Jaiswal was having a running battle with former Maharashtra Home Minister Anil Deshmukh and looking for a way out. But he was not the first choice for the post of the CBI Director of the Prime Minister either when a short-list was prepared. The first choice was CBI's Special Director Rakesh Asthana, a Gujarat cadre officer and Modi's hot favourite. As luck would have it, Chief Justice of India, N V Ramana was against Asthana and consensus emerged in favour of Jaiswal during the selection committee meeting. Now the Prime Minister’s Office is very happy with Jaiswal and he has emerged as a favourite and trusted IPS officer in the government. It transpires that Jaiswal may soon be rewarded with another top job. If sources in the PMO are to be believed, Jaiswal may be sent to India’s premier espionage agency, Research & Analysis Wing (RAW). The current RAW Chief Samant Goel’s tenure is ending in June this year. But Jaiswal may be sent there in early April to RAW and Samant Goel may be appointed to another coveted post for the next couple of years. Jaiswal may also be happy in RAW as its chief for next two year. His tenure in CBI ends early next year and get a reward of one extra year. It may also be mentioned here that Jaiswal has been in RAW earlier and earned laurels.

Praveen Sinha may be next CBI Chief
Reward to Jaiswal is not without a reason. The government is keen to make Praveen Sinha as the next CBI Director. Sinha is currently number-two as Special Director. He is a 1988 batch IPS officer of Gujarat cadre and due to retire in April this year. If he is not made CBI Director before April, he cannot become a regular Director. When Subodh Kumar Jaiswal was chosen as the CBI Director last year, Sinha was not eligible for consideration for the post as officers belonging to batches between 1984 to 1987 were considered. If the post of the CBI Director falls vacant now, he can emerge as a strong contender for the top job. In any case, he can be given the charge of a Director without delay if Jaiswal quits before tenure and goes to RAW. Another reason in Sinha's favour is that he was elected to the Interpol's Executive Committee from Asia after a bitterly fought election last year defeating China. The entire might of the PMO and Ministry of External Affairs was put to ensure Sinha’s victory. This crucial post is for three-year and if Sinha is allowed to retire, India cannot retain this post at the Interpol. Therefore, in order to retain this post, Sinha is to be retained as no retired officer can be in the Executive Committee of Interpol as per rules. It is in this context that Praveen Sinha may have to be given the coveted post and Jaiswal being shifted to RAW. But there are many slips between the cup and lip.

Baffling reshuffle in PMO
The PMO is witnessing some interesting reshuffle and bureaucrats are keeping their fingers crossed. First, it was Senior Adviser Amarajeet Sinha in the PMO who quit his job all of a sudden seven months before his tenure in August 2021.Prior to him P K Sinha, Principal Adviser in the PMO, quit last year. Sinha was Cabinet Secretary prior to joining the PMO. It was rumoured that he may be brought in as LG of Delhi. But it's been over a year and he is cooling his heels. Now Bhaskar Kulbe who was appointed as Adviser to the Prime Minister, has put in his papers. Kulbe was earlier, secretary in the PMO and allowed to retire. After a couple of months, he was appointed as Adviser to the PM in 2020. But all of a sudden, he too put in his papers and quit. Interestingly, no replacements have been brought in the PMO after three senior officers quit in less than a year. The Principal Secretary to the PM, P K Mishra is reported to be in favour of cutting manpower in the government and beginning has been made in the PMO itself. It is authoritatively learnt that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently expressed his desire to resign considering his age. Doval is 77 years old and wants to be relieved. But the Prime Minister is reported to have declined to accept his resignation. Earlier, Nripendra Mishra, Principal Secretary to the PM, also quit a few months after he was re-appointed to the coveted post after Modi's big win in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Clouds over Gehlot, Baghel, No way
Having lost power in Punjab rather badly, the leaders in two Congress-ruled states – Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are waiting with bated breath for the high command to focus on restructuring the party and even change of guards. A decision will have to be taken on the new party president in these two states. While Sachin Pilot loyalists hope there will be a leadership change in Rajasthan, in Chhattisgarh, a group led by TS Singh Deo, the current health minister, is hoping for something similar. The incumbent Chhattisgarh chief minister, Bhupesh Baghel, is extremely close to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and has played key roles in recent assembly elections in Assam and Uttar Pradesh. Therefore, there is no possibility of a leadership change. In the case of Rajasthan CM, Ashok Gehlot, the high command has committed that the next Assembly polls will be fought under his leadership. It means that his loyalists will be accommodated in the government. It is however, not certain what Pilot wants after the results of Assembly polls are out.

No Takers of Nitish Kumar
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is an extremely worried man. Ever since BJP emerged as number one party in 2020 Assembly polls forcing Janata Dal (U) to play a second fiddle, the “Sushashan Babu” has been desperately trying to find a way out. The day is not far when the BJP will split other parties in Bihar and form its own government in the event of winning the UP Assembly polls. It was in this background that Nitish Kumar's name suddenly made headlines as the possible Presidential candidate for the July 2022 polls. It emerged that freelance poll strategist Prashant Kishore was behind it. This news was spread after Telangana CM K Chandrashekhar Rao and Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray met for nearly four hours in Mumbai. When asked, Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut denied saying there was no discussion on the presidential poll during the four hour long meeting as Raut was present throughout. It is Kishore who wants Nitish Kumar to move to the national scene to fill the vacuum among the non-BJP forces. But there are no takers of Nitish Kumar in the Opposition camp as his political integrity has taken a big hit.

Thursday, February 3, 2022

Fly on the Wall | A poll for the next President!!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A poll for the next President!!
When Union Home Minister Amit Shah said recently that UP Assembly poll results will have an impact on national politics, no eyebrows were raised. The statement was largely ignored as one of the election rhetoric. But those who know Amit Shah closely, say he is not known for mincing word and plays with a straight bat. He may be termed as “Chanakya” by his admirers but his opponents say his only strength is that he has the ears of the Prime Minister. He implements what he is told to do and is a true lieutenant of Narendra Modi for more than two decades. Therefore, when he says something in public domain, his words need to be understood from a political perspective. After all, the Prime Minister finally deputed him to take charge of the poll campaign in UP after a long lull and deliver 300/403 seats to the NDA. These seats are vital for the Presidential polls slated to take place in July this year. The realignment of political forces in the country depends on the outcome of the UP Assembly polls. An adverse outcome will bring all anti-BJP forces together on one platform. These forces may sink their differences to install a consensus candidate like Shah Pawar or someone from down South or East the next President of India. The NDA, at present, has a narrow edge in the electoral college of around 11 lakh votes. The BJP would need allies like BJD, YSR-Congress, TRS or even the DMK. A comfortable UP win for the BJP is a must to ensure stability of the BJP at the Centre. Any adverse outcome may throw up more rumblings within the BJP and many sidelined leaders are just waiting in the wings for that moment only. It is because of this very reason that Modi, BJP and RSS have pumped in their entire might behind the UP polls.

The Return of Amit Shah
Shah is now the most active face of the BJP in these five State polls. The PM has asked Shah to steer the UP polls and Modi was forced to send Shah sensing some danger. There were days sometime last year when Shah was cooling his heels and maintaining a low-profile. Shah was not very visible either and insiders felt that something is amiss. But it was between Modi and Shah and no third person got a clue. That was the time when J P Nadda, newly appointed BJP president, was on top of the world and hogging the limelight. But the situation changed and Shah was seen holding late night meetings at the BJP headquarters with all top leaders in tow. Even when Nadda was unable to make physically present at such meetings and could join only virtually, Shah was seen in command with others playing coy. Shah's regular presence at the BJP headquarters reminded people of the days when Shah was BJP president between 2014-19 and he was at his best. This round of Assembly elections in five states saw the return of old Amit Shah and he is enjoying it.

Self-goal by Gandhi siblings
Rahul Gandhi was extremely happy to find that all the 117 party candidates in Punjab were in tow when he visited the Golden Temple to pay obeisance last week. He was extremely happy when both claimants to the Punjab Chief Minister’s chair, Navjot Singh Sidhu and sitting CM Charanjit Singh Channi expressed faith in his leadership. Both wanted Rahul to declare the party's chief minister’s face and would accept his decision whoever he would nominate. Poor Rahul!! He fell into the trap and announced before the media that he would announce the CM face after consulting party workers. Perhaps, Rahul forgot the pitfalls of announcing a candidate when a sitting CM is already there representing the support of at least 30% of Dalit votes in the state. If he announces an “an unstable minded” Sidhu, Congress will lose Dalits and if Channi is announced, the Jats won’t be happy either. What a dichotomy? But Rahul Gandhi himself is to be blamed for putting himself and the party in this embarrassing situation. Insiders say Rahul Gandhi was carried away by the huge crowd around him and gave in. Now, the ball has been thrown towards Sonia Gandhi so sort out the mess. Earlier, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra made the same fatal mistake of saying “Who else you find other than me” when media persons wanted to know who will Congress’ Chief Ministerial face in UP. The press conference had been planned in advance and she had been properly briefed. Yet she was swayed and later sheepishly clarified that it was unintended. But the damage had been done and the entire UP campaign got punctured.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Congress upset as Mamata on poaching spree

  • Adhir Ranjan Blasts TMC at CWC meeting
  • Bhupesh Baghel takes a dig at Mamata Too
Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group
New Delhi, Oct 18

The mega plan of Congress president Sonia Gandhi to unite all like-minded parties may go for a toss as Trinamool Congress leader and West Bengal Chief Minister is on a poaching mission these days.

Mamata Banerjee is not only trying to poach the BJP leaders but winning over senior leaders of the Congress Party itself throwing to the winds the bonhomie seen a couple of months ago.

The Congress Working Committee's extended meeting which concluded yesterday saw the friendship between the Congress-TMC being thrown to the dustbin.

The TMC leaders have poached two prominent leaders of the Congress from Assam, Goa and other states. Mamata won over Congress Mahila Morcha Chief Sushmita Dev) and gave her Rajya Sabha seat.

Similarly, she also lured former Goa Chief Minister Luizinho Falerio into her party and TMC decided to contest state assembly polls on her own.

It was in this context that CWC leaders blasted Mamata Banerjee yesterday. Leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee was hijacking many Congress leaders with an aim to create a 'Congress (Mamata) and pitting them against the 'Congress (I)'.

Adhir Ranjan went on to say that the TMC is primarily functioning as the B team of the BJP.

Earlier, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel had tweeted against poaching done by the TMC of the Congress leaders. Without naming TMC, Baghel had said, “ People looking for a national alternative based on poaching INC functionaries who can't win their own seats, is in for big disappointment.”

It is not immediately known if Sonia Gandhi commented on the views expressed by some members.

Monday, October 18, 2021

Fly on the wall | Mamata's game of 50

Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Mamata's game of 50
The Game-2024 for the Lok Sabha polls has already begun. While the Congress Party is desperately working hard to revive itself and putting its entire might to win a couple of states in the ensuing round of Assembly polls early next year, the BJP is trying hard to defend its citadel in four states; UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Punjab is being watched very closely as its an open game with pollsters predicting a win for the dark horse AAP though its early days. These polls are also crucial for some of the regional players like SP, and BSP who have been facing BJP's onslaught for the past seven years in UP. But for most of the regional Satraps in the East, West and Southern regions, these Assembly polls are not of much consequence.

In the East in West Bengal, Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is rather waiting for the Congress to suffer a setback. She knows that she is not a player in North Indian politics and remains unruffled as her honeymoon with the Congress is virtually over. She is now on her own trip with poll strategist Prashant Kishore advising her actively. If grapevine has it, she is now targeting to secure 50 Lok Sabha seats during the 2024 parliamentary polls as she can be a player in any non-BJP government formulation. This is a huge target considering her appeal confined to West Bengal with 42 Lok Sabha seats. She hopes to polarize the state the same way as Modi did in 2014 and 2019. Rather, she will have an added appeal to the voters saying; vote for me as I can be PM, a first Bengali. She may be anywhere between 34-37 Lok Sabha in 2024. But to win extra 13-15 seats, is an Herculean task. She is working hard to replace Congress in the North East comprising 22 Lok Sabha seats. She has already brought senior Congress leader Sushmita Dev into the party and was rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat to influence voters in Assam and Tripura. She is also making a strategy to get a couple of seats each in Odisha, Jharkhand and even Bihar and enter into strategic adjustments with parties in states where Bengali voters are in large numbers.

The DarK Horse Uddhav
Until the other day, NCP Supremo Shaarad Rao Pawar was the only name that always cropped up for the post of PM probable. But knowledgeable sources say that unassuming Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray could be a new player in the Game-2024. He has changed the entire culture and ethos of Shiv Sena during the past two years in power. Uddhav is in the driver's seat and shown to the people how a coalition government is run. With no one around to take on the mighty BJP juggernaut Uddhav's style of working has given some hope as well. He has been a successful manager, measured in his responses, doesn't mince words either and knows when to keep quiet.

He is managing two very ambitious leaders, Sharad Pawar and Nana Patole with tremendous skill. Political pundits say if India gets a hung parliament, Uddhav is the man to watch. Uddhav has mastered the art of retaining his hard line Hindutva credentials and at the same time running a secular government without big jerks.

He continues to be close to the RSS, goes to Ayodhya, meets Modi and still keeps his secular partners happy. In addition, he also takes pride in his Maratha identity. The Sena has also shed its anti-minority violent image too. In a way, Uddhav Thackeray can be India’s first secular Hindu nationalist. It will be difficult for the BJP to use the minority appeasement bogey against a Hindu party. In addition, big corporate houses in Mumbai also like him. Interestingly, they are the same houses who bow before Modi in Delhi, But keep Thackeray in good humour in Mumbai.

Rising graph of Stalin
After two powerful southern leaders; K Kamraj and J Jayalalitha, failed to grab power in Delhi, DMK's M K Stalin is contemplating trying his luck. But he is not in a hurry and is slowly consolidating his position. He is looking beyond 2024 even if there is a hung house three years down the line. Poll strategist Prashant Kishore is a common factor between Stalin and Mamata Banerjee. If Mamata is targeting a 50 seats game, he is not far behind either. Currently, he is creating an identity raising issues like “federal structure” etc without talking politics directly. He is busy mobilising non-BJP Chief Ministers on key issues.