by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

The Elite Lose Sleep

Ever since Narendra Modi took office, India’s bureaucracy has been jolted out of its comfort zone. The Prime Minister’s relentless work ethic—often stretching close to 20 hours a day—has steadily reset expectations across ministries. While most departments felt the shift early, the traditionally insulated elite of the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) managed to glide through with limited disruption, barring brief pressure spells during episodes like “Operation Sindoor.”

That insulation is now gone. A complex global crisis—one India is not party to, yet cannot escape—has dragged the Ministry of External Affairs into an unforgiving, high-velocity environment. At the centre is the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), operating in overdrive and demanding real-time responsiveness. For a service steeped in protocol and process, the change has been stark.

Take a recent instance: as tensions escalated overseas, the PMO sought an urgent conversation with a key global leader. What would earlier take hours—if not a full day—through diplomatic channels, was compressed into minutes. Senior IFS officials were on the phone past midnight, scrambling across time zones to secure the line. The old rhythm of calibrated diplomacy is giving way to a results-driven, time-bound approach. With conversations spanning time zones, officials are clocking 18–20 hour workdays, matching the tempo set at the top. A slight delay invited direct calls from the PMO, seeking explanations. This is the new normal.

This round-the-clock culture is unprecedented for the MEA. It marks a shift from ceremonial diplomacy to mission-mode execution, where delivery trumps decorum. For India’s blue-blood diplomatic corps, long accustomed to measured pace and hierarchy, the message is unmistakable: adapt or be left behind. The elite, it seems, are finally losing sleep.

Rahul’s Scripted Politics, Unscripted Damage

People often ask who writes Rahul Gandhi’s speeches. The stock answer: elite aides from Harvard and Oxford. But speechwriters are universal—from the Prime Minister downwards. The real question is judgment, not drafting. Rahul is widely seen as fearless, honest, and unbending before the government. Fair enough. But elections aren’t won on virtue alone. If they were, Communist parties—equally vocal and combative—would dominate everywhere. Winning demands political instinct and sustained grind, where Rahul still appears wanting.

His latest remark in Lucknow, at an event marking Kanshi Ram’s birth anniversary, underscores the problem. He said that if Jawaharlal Nehru hadn’t existed, Kanshi Ram would have become Chief Minister. The statement lands as both careless and condescending. Kanshi Ram didn’t need Congress patronage—he built his own movement and installed Mayawati as Uttar Pradesh CM multiple times through sheer political engineering. The remark also exposes a dated strategy: revive the Nehru-era Congress coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins. That arithmetic no longer holds. In fact, it invites scrutiny—how many Dalit CMs did Congress actually produce?

The answer is uncomfortable. Despite governing widely, Congress elevated only a handful of Dalit chief ministers. The most recent was Charanjit Singh Channi in Punjab. Even the BJP has yet to appoint one. Nehru ruled for 17 years and produced just one Dalit CM. Against that record, invoking him to elevate Kanshi Ram rings hollow. For Rahul Gandhi, the takeaway is simple: less rhetoric, more rigour. Loose lines don’t just miss the mark—they damage credibility. Mallikarjun Kharge once thought of broaching the subject with Rahul Gandhi. But couldn't muster the courage, say sources.

From Parliament to ‘Tapori’: When Politics Goes Bambaiya

Indian politics briefly took a detour into Mumbai street slang after Kangana Ranaut decided to label Rahul Gandhi a “tapori”—a word more at home in Bollywood banter than parliamentary discourse. The remark raised eyebrows, not least because “tapori” doesn’t quite feature in standard political vocabulary. For the uninitiated, it loosely translates to a street-smart vagabond—part rogue, part charmer, and occasionally a cinematic hero. Think less policy paper, more Rangeela energy.

Predictably, the backlash was swift. The Congress ignored it. But Priyanka Chaturvedi stepped in with a pointed rebuttal, calling the comment “wrong” and gently reminding critics of Gandhi’s public positioning on women’s issues—while also noting the irony of targeting someone from a lineage known for its women leaders.

But the real curiosity is linguistic. “Tapori,” with its roots in Marathi street culture, once described flamboyant, mischievous young men loitering around Mumbai’s tapris. Over time, Bollywood polished the edges, turning the term into something almost aspirational—a badge of rebellious cool.

Which perhaps explains the confusion. Insult, caricature, or accidental compliment? In today’s politics, even street slang can briefly steal the national spotlight.

A Tale of Two Cases

The recent closure of the Sterling Biotech case involving the Sandesara brothers who fled the country in 2017 —Nitin and Chetan—has drawn attention to the fine balance between legal closure and public perception. The settlement, approved by the Supreme Court of India, allows for a payment of ₹5,100 crore as “full and final” resolution between the promoters, lending banks and investigative agencies. On paper, it brings closure. In practice, it raises questions. Sterling Biotech’s total dues were estimated at nearly ₹19,400 crore. Yet, roughly a quarter of that amount has been accepted to settle not just civil liabilities but also accompanying criminal proceedings. The allegations by agencies included complex financial irregularities and the use of 200 shell entities. The settlement, therefore, marks a legal endpoint, though not without discomfort within banking circles.

Contrast this with the case of Vijay Mallya. His liabilities, pegged at a little over ₹6,000 crore, stemmed largely from the collapse of his Kingfisher airline business rather than proven fraud at the time of default. Having left India in 2016, he was later declared a fugitive. Since then, recovery agencies claim to have realised over ₹14,000 crore through asset seizures—well above the principal. Yet, with interest accruals, his dues are still treated as unsettled, hovering near ₹20,000 crore.

Two cases, two outcomes—both legally sanctioned, yet starkly divergent. The contrast underlines the complexities of financial justice, where recovery, culpability and closure do not always align in ways that appear intuitive.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Reservation by Raffle? Parliament May Try Its Luck

Indian democracy has tried many innovations, but the latest idea doing the rounds in Delhi could easily pass for political satire: deciding women’s reserved seats in the Lok Sabha by lottery. Yes, a lottery. Not the kind that changes your life overnight, but one that could determine which parliamentary constituencies out of 543 will be reserved for women when the 33 per cent quota possibly kicks in 2029.

The discussion stems from a practical problem. The landmark Nari Shakti Vandan Act, passed with great fanfare in 2023, says the reservation will come into force only after the census and the delimitation of constituencies. The census process has finally been notified and, if schedules hold, the data may emerge by late 2027. Once the census numbers are out, a Delimitation Commission will have to redraw constituency boundaries which will take another two years if not more. The political dilemma is how to implement women’s reservation before the 2029 election without waiting for delimitation to finish.

Enter the lottery idea. If delimitation is delayed, one option being discussed is to temporarily delink the reservation from the boundary exercise and allocate the required constituencies through a draw of lots. The proposal is still in the realm of speculation. Opposition parties have already suggested separating reservation from the census–delimitation cycle. Meanwhile, signals of a “significant bill” have come from Kiren Rijiju, though details remain under wraps. If the idea gains traction, India’s electoral politics could soon face a curious spectacle—where the path to Parliament may depend not just on campaigning, alliances and strategy, but also on the luck of the draw.

‘Rarest of the Rare’: The Three-Minute Video Saga

The detention of climate activist Sonam Wangchuk under the National Security Act may well enter legal folklore as a “rarest of the rare” episode — not because the law was invoked, but because a three-minute video began to unravel the government’s case. The drama unfolded in the Supreme Court when the bench of Justices Aravind Kumar and P. B. Varale began probing the basis of Wangchuk’s detention. At the heart of the case was his speech delivered during protests in Leh.

But the court noticed something odd. The government’s translation of Wangchuk’s speech ran for nearly seven to eight minutes. The original video, however, lasted barely three minutes. The bench was quick to flag the mismatch. “How can a three-minute speech have a seven-minute translation?” the judges asked, making it clear that they wanted the actual transcript rather than the government’s interpretation.

The turning point came when the court said it would watch the video itself. The Centre was asked to submit the footage cited in the detention order on a pen drive so the judges could verify the speech first-hand. That single decision changed the complexion of the case. The government began seeking adjournments. At one stage, the hearing was deferred after the law officer informed the bench that Tushar Mehta was unwell and needed time to respond.

But before the judges could actually sit down to watch the video, the Centre quietly revoked the detention order. And that is what makes the episode “rarest of the rare”, legal luminaries say. A preventive-detention case that began collapsing the moment the court insisted on seeing the three-minute video behind the seven-minute translation.

Erasing Lutyens from Delhi!

The transformation of India’s power corridor may be heading for its boldest phase yet. After unveiling the new Parliament House and pushing ahead with a vast executive complex, the government is now looking at a sweeping redesign of the entire Central Vista and large parts of Lutyens’ Delhi.

At the heart of the plan is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambition to modernize the core of the capital. The next target is to gradually move all departments into modern integrated multi-storied complexes that can accommodate thousands of officials under one roof and even VIP bungalows. The ripple effects could extend well beyond government offices. Several colonial-era bungalow clusters across Lutyens’ Delhi are now under scrutiny. Hundreds of Houses around the Race Course Road and area in Lutyens Delhi have reportedly received eviction notices as authorities explore building multi-storeyed accommodation for MPs and even ministers.

The redevelopment footprint could also cover institutions such as the Press Club of India, the Indian Women’s Press Corps, key institutions and the elite Delhi Gymkhana Club. If the plan unfolds fully, the quiet bungalow capital designed by Edwin Lutyens may slowly give way to a dense, modern government district. Supporters call it long-overdue modernization. Critics have a sharper phrase for it: the steady erasing of Lutyens from Delhi. His bust has already gone.

Who After Harivansh? Deputy Chairman Race Gets Tricky

With Harivansh Narayan Singh set to retire as Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, a question has surfaced in the corridors of power: who will occupy the chair next? At one stage, there was speculation that the BJP was keen on sending him back for a third term. But Nitish Kumar’s party chose otherwise, and the BJP did little to intervene — a political fate not very different from what earlier befell R. C. P. Singh, once a minister in the Modi government.

By convention, the post could again go to the JD(U), but the party’s options appear limited. Among its Rajya Sabha MPs, Ram Nath Thakur, son of socialist icon Karpoori Thakur, is already serving as a minister. The party’s working president Sanjay Jha is reportedly uninterested, while others are not seen as strong contenders. This leaves the NDA looking beyond JD(U). Could the post go to an ally such as Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party, or perhaps to representatives of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena or Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party faction?

Earlier, the government had even explored offering the position to neutral, issue-based supporters like the BJD. That option now appears politically unviable. For the NDA leadership, what should have been a routine parliamentary appointment has quietly turned into a delicate exercise in coalition management. The Lok Sabha is already without a Deputy Speaker. Will the Rajya Sabha witness the same in the days to come!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Chabahar Damaged, Jolt to India’s Strategic Port

The escalating conflict involving Donald Trump’s United States, Israel and Iran is beginning to cast a long and troubling shadow over India’s strategic interests in West Asia. Beyond the immediate geopolitical tremors, New Delhi is now confronting tangible losses — the most serious being the reported damage and shutdown of the strategically vital Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran. According to informed sources, the port has been badly hit in the recent hostilities. The extent of the damage is still being assessed, but officials acknowledge that the losses could be substantial. The government is now dispatching a team to Iran to evaluate the situation and determine the impact on Indian investments and operations.

For India, Chabahar is far more than a commercial project. The port represents a critical strategic gateway allowing New Delhi to bypass Pakistan and access landlocked Afghanistan and the broader Central Asian region. The project has long been a cornerstone of India’s connectivity and geopolitical outreach to Eurasia. Ironically, the port had only recently secured a fragile diplomatic reprieve. In October last year, the United States had agreed to grant another sanctions waiver for Chabahar following intense negotiations involving Washington’s ambassador-designate Sergio Gor. Gor reportedly held marathon meetings with senior Indian officials, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, during a series of confidential discussions in New Delhi.

The implications are serious. India had signed a 10-year contract in May 2024 to operate the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar, a commitment central to its long-term regional strategy. With the port now damaged, Indian entities operating there face uncertainty and potential penalties, raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of India’s overseas strategic assets in an increasingly volatile region.

The Importance of Being V. K. Saxena

In the latest gubernatorial reshuffle, the appointment of V. K. Saxena may not have grabbed headlines, but it carries significant strategic weight. Saxena has been named the fourth Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, succeeding earlier appointees including R. K. Mathur, B. D. Mishra and Kavinder Gupta of UT which was created just six years ago.

The Centre appears to be banking on Saxena’s administrative experience at a sensitive time for the Himalayan Union Territory. Having earlier served as LG of Delhi, Saxena built a reputation for an assertive, hands-on style of governance. His tenure saw him play a key role in shaping the political and administrative landscape that eventually helped the BJP regain power in the capital in 2025.

Hand-picked by Narendra Modi, who had earlier noticed his work at the Khadi and Village Industries Commission, Saxena is now expected to focus on development and security in Ladakh. His appointment also comes amid persistent demands from groups such as the Leh Apex Body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance for statehood and Sixth Schedule protections — making his role both administrative and politically delicate.

TMC singing to its own tune in Assam & Kerala

In politics, what appears obvious is often deceptive. This is why a key question is being asked: Is Mamata Banerjee genuinely committed to stopping the BJP not just in West Bengal, but across the country? If one examines closely, a pattern is visible- weaken the Congress. In Goa, TMC's aggressive entry in 2022 ended up damaging the Congress far more than the BJP. TMC secured 5.2 per cent of the vote in 2022, while the Congress vote share fell by 4.9 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party also polled around seven per cent, and together they decimated the Congress. It has never recovered in the state. In Meghalaya, Mamata Banerjee went a step further by engineering a split in the Congress and inducted most of its MLAs into TMC. A similar attempt was made in Jharkhand, though without success.

The same strategy now seems to be unfolding ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in Assam and Kerala. TMC is preparing to contest alone in both states where a small vote share can prove decisive. In Assam, the Congress' Gaurav Gogoi even reached out to the TMC leadership. But his efforts went in vain. In Kerala, two-time Left-backed MLA P.V. Anvar has joined TMC, suggesting that Mamata’s entry there may weaken the Congress more than the BJP, even if it indirectly benefits the CPM. That appears not to concern her. The CPM is no longer a serious force in Bengal; the Congress, however, remains a rival nationally and the TMC may be a casual ally in the INDIA Bloc.

Why Khan Got the Boot!

March 5 turned into a day of high political drama in Bihar. It is perhaps first time that a state lost a Chief Minister and the Governor too. In a matter of hours, two powerful occupants of office — Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Governor Arif Mohammad Khan — were out of the picture. Kumar’s exit was hardly shocking, though his decision to move to the Rajya Sabha did raise eyebrows. The real surprise was the abrupt removal of Khan. Almost instantly, the Centre moved to install former Lieutenant General of the army, Syed Ata Hasnain as the new Governor.

The speed of the transition suggested a carefully scripted political move by the ruling BJP establishment to tighten its grip on the state’s political narrative. Ironically, Khan had been a trusted pick of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first appointed Governor of Kerala in 2019 before being shifted to Bihar in December 2024. After more than six years in gubernatorial office — and once even whispered as a possible vice-presidential contender — his sudden exit remains unexplained, and politically intriguing.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP high command to pick 16 RS candidates shortly 

Nitin Nabin, Mithun Chakraborty, Pawan Singh, K Annamalai in the reckoning

RS biennial polls for 37 seats on March 16 

Harish Gupta

The BJP high command is likely to meet soon to field around 16 candidates for the 37 Rajya Sabha seats that will go to the polls on March 16 while its allies will contest another six. The prominent names under consideration are of party president Nitin Nabin from Bihar though there is some ambiguity over him. It is said that former BJP national presidents Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari had continued as MLAs for a considerable period after becoming party chief.

The BJP is set to win two seats in Bihar out of 5 and JD(U) will win remaining two while one seat MGB may win with the help of AIMIM. But this is an open seat for now. A Bhoj puri singer Pawan singh is another name doing the rounds. He met the high command recently in Delhi. Former MP Rama Devi, Nand Kishore Yadav, Rakesh Tiwari, and Rituraj Sinha are also in the reckoning.

Some of the prominent names emerging are of former BJP Tamil Nadu president K Annamalai and BJP general secretary Vinod Tawade. Actor-politician Mithun Chakraborty, Manmohan Samal, BJP state president Odisha, instrumental in the party's win in the assembly polls and Abhinandan Panda, son of a veteran BJP leader Basant Panda are being considered from Odisha.

Former Congress leader Kiran Chaudhary, who joined the Bharatiya Janata Party two years ago, is hoping to get another term but there are murmurs that the party could instead pick a Jat leader for the upcoming vacancy in Haryana.

The BJP will gain at least five Rajya Sabha seats out of 37 seats. The BJP's 9 MPs are retiring (Maharashtra 2), Odisha (2), Assam (2) Haryana (2), Himachal (1) among the 37 MPs elections for which are being held.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta 

Why the PMO Is Upset

The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is understood to be deeply dissatisfied with the manner in which two sensitive issues — the Aravalli Hills matter and the University Grants Commission (UGC) regulations controversy — were handled by the concerned departments. Sources indicate that a comprehensive performance review of several ministries and departments is currently underway. Insiders suggest this scrutiny is also one of the reasons behind the delay in organisational  and other changes.

The Modi government faced considerable political and legal heat over the Aravalli Hills case. In late 2025, the Supreme Court accepted a new “100-metre elevation” definition for the Aravalli range proposed by a committee led by the Environment Ministry. Critics argued that the new definition would leave more than 90 per cent of the ecologically fragile stretch open to mining. The ministry initially defended its position, but the SC later kept the definition in abeyance. Following the backlash and institutional embarrassment, the Centre directed states to impose a complete ban on fresh mining leases in the Aravallis.

What has raised eyebrows within the establishment is that the PMO has, in the past, intervened when proposals threatened environmentally sensitive regions. Despite that track record, this lapse occurred.

The second flash point was the UGC’s “Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions Regulations, 2026.” Intended to address caste-based discrimination, the notification triggered controversy for appearing to focus primarily on reserved categories (SC, ST, OBC) while allegedly overlooking grievances from the general category. As protests spread nationwide, the ministry continued to defend the regulations, insisting they would not lead to misuse. When the PMO sought clarification, it was reportedly informed that the UGC — an autonomous body — had not consulted it before issuing the notification. The obvious follow-up question — why then was it defended? — reportedly drew no convincing response. The twin episodes have exposed gaps in coordination, political assessment and anticipatory governance — precisely the areas the PMO is now believed to be examining closely.

Delhi’s Empire and Punjab’s Maharaja

Captain Amarinder Singh once carried himself like Punjab’s last Maharaja — proud, commanding, answerable to no one. But politics, like royalty, changes once you enter a new court. His move from Congress to the BJP was supposed to be a graceful retirement plan: a Governor’s chair, a ceremonial farewell, and perhaps a secure political landing spot for his family. Instead, the Maharaja discovered a harsher truth — in the BJP, you do not negotiate your future, you are assigned one.

Today, neither wife nor son holds an elected post. The Captain himself, no longer in active health or active politics, has become more symbol than player. When he recently hinted he could even leave the BJP because no senior leader listens to him, the message was loud: even Maharajas are not consulted in this empire. The Congress, sensing an opening, spoke of welcoming him back.

But hold your breath! Almost instantly came the ED notice under a lighter provision (FEMA) — to Amarinder and his son — over their foreign assets. The timing was not subtle. The family quickly clarified: no, they are not going anywhere. They are loyal soldiers of the BJP. And then, as if on cue, the officer issuing the notice was transferred. Silence returned. The Captain may have thought he joined the BJP for protection. But perhaps he has learned the deeper rule: once you are inside, your future is no longer yours to decide.

Double Landing in Gujarat: Nitin Meets Kejri's Ambition

Call it coincidence — or the quiet drumbeat of an early campaign season. As newly appointed BJP chief Nitin Nabin made his first high-profile visit to Gujarat, shadowed by Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, another political traveller touched down almost simultaneously: Arvind Kejriwal, accompanied by Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.

Nabin stayed three days. Kejriwal stayed two. But the subtext lasted longer. The BJP has ruled Gujarat for nearly three decades. Yet the real churn is not about power — it is about who occupies the opposition space. The AAP, which bagged 12.92% vote share in 2022, now smells blood. Internal projections claim it has surged to nearly 25%, overtaking a listless Congress and positioning itself as the principal challenger ahead of 2027.

Kejriwal’s pitch is blunt: push Congress to third place, turn Gujarat into a direct BJP-versus-AAP duel. Even a strong second-place finish in local body polls would redraw the state’s political map. For Congress, this is existential. For BJP, it is a reminder that the challenger may no longer wear the old colours.

The Reluctant Patriarch Who Knows Everything

Nitish Kumar insists he is no believer in dynasty. He invokes Karpoori Thakur like a moral shield — socialism over surname, principle over progeny. As long as he is active, he says, his son will remain outside politics. And yet, curiously, the marketing department seems to be working overtime. On cue, party leaders float Nishant’s name for organisational roles, Rajya Sabha prospects, even future leadership. The whispers are too coordinated to be accidental, too persistent to be spontaneous. But the Chief Minister maintains studied innocence — as if these are independent outbreaks of enthusiasm.

This is vintage Nitish: publicly austere, privately adaptive. He knows the optics of dynasty in Bihar’s politics are tricky. So the son does not “enter”; he is merely “encouraged.” The father does not “promote”; he merely “observes.”  The message is subtle: succession is not ambition — it is compulsion, even consensus.

And if the choreography looks suspiciously well-rehearsed, perhaps it is because the script was never meant to surprise the director. That's why Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh and Sanjay Jha are publicly batting for Nishant Kumar's entry in the Rajya Sabha or a key role in the party.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Congress may gain in RS biennial polls

4 MPs retiring, party may win 6 seats

Harish Gupta

If the BJP is improving its Rajya Sabha tally from 103 seats to 108-109 in the biennial polls scheduled for March 16, the Congress may also improve its numbers. Currently, the Congress has 25 Mps in the Rajya Sabha and its four members are retiring. If the party plays its cards well, it may gain two extra seats. The four party Mps retiring are Rajni Patil (Maharashtra) , Abhishek Singhvi (Telangana) and KTS Tulsi and Phulo Devi Netam (Chhattisgarh).

According to reports emanating from the AICC, given the current situation, Abhishek Manu Singhvi is sure to be renominated from Telangana. The Congress is also likely to get one seat in Chhattisgarh and the name of former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is doing the rounds. The Congress may also get one seat each in Himachal Pradesh and Haryana. It is ruling Himachal and has 37 MLAs in Haryana and 31 votes are needed to win a seat.

The Congress may get a seat in Assam as well where it has 29 votes and needs the support of 32 MLAs to win the seat. If the CPM (1), AIUDF (16) and BPF (1) support, the Congress may gain a seat. However, Assam Chief Minister Hemanta Biswa Sarma has declared that the BJP will win all three seats.

The Congress may hope to get a seat in Odisha if an understanding is reached with Naveen Patnaik of the BJD. The BJD has 51 votes and a candidate needs 30 votes to win a seat. The Congress has 14 MLAs. The parties can put up a common candidate against the ruling BJP.

The Congress high command is hopeful of getting an extra seat in Telangana which the Chief Minister Reventh Reddy has assured. The UPA has 65 MLAs and may get the support of AIMIM (7 MLAs) and several rebel BRS MLAs.

The Congress has also urged the DMK in Tamil Nadu to spare a RS seat since the Chief Minister M K Stalin is not sharing power with it though prospects are bleak.

(separate Box)

Former Union Minister Anand Sharma & Bhanwar Jitendra Singh, film actor Raj Babbar, Pawan Khera, Sachin Rao, Krishna Allavaru, Meenakshi Natrajan, Supriya Shrinate and others eyeing RS seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Experts Question Caste Census with an Escape Clause?

No "Dedicated" column for OBCs like SCs/STs

Harish Gupta

Population experts are baffled by the government's notification where citizens will be answering 33 questions during the first phase of the Census, starting April 1. The enumerators will ask whether the head of the household belongs to the Scheduled Caste, the Scheduled Tribe or other communities. 

Experts say that individuals have been given the option to disclose their caste or category rather than giving OBCs (Other Backward Classes) a "dedicated column" as in the case of Scs and Sts. Of course, an individual can certainly mention his caste in the “Third column”. But this column is for all castes including the Upper, OBC or others.

Enumerators will certainly mention the caste as told to them by the individuals. But there is no specific instruction/column for OBCs. Experts point out that in the absence of this provision, counting OBCs from the third column will be an impossible task.

The puzzle is sharper because the government has, after much delay, agreed to conduct India’s first caste-based census since 1931. The move came after sustained pressure from OBC groups, who argue that they constitute over 52 per cent of the population and therefore deserve a proportionate share in state resources and welfare benefits.

When contacted, the government sources declined to comment but informally  agreed that there is no consolidation for OBCs column, unlike the consolidation that continues for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST).

For the first time, the Census will also allow self-enumeration through digital means, with specific codes provided for non-disclosure. The critics warn that built-in escape routes could undermine the very objective of the exercise.

Ever since OBCs were granted reservations in jobs and educational institutions in the 1990s, there has been a persistent demand for a nationwide caste census. Some states, including Bihar and Haryana, attempted caste surveys, but most failed to reach logical conclusions due to political and administrative hurdles.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Why Delhi Is Betting on Ashwini Vaishnav

Ashwini Vaishnav is not the kind of minister who dominates television panels or daily headlines. He keeps a deliberately low profile, avoids the media glare, and operates with the demeanour of a technocrat rather than a political showman. Yet, in Narendra Modi’s government, his importance far outweighs his visibility.

Vaishnav’s strength lies in a rare convergence of skills. A former IAS officer with an engineering degree from IIT Kanpur and an MBA from Wharton, he embodies the Modi government’s preferred model of leadership—technically grounded, administratively sharp, and relentlessly execution-focused. As the minister handling Railways, Electronics and IT, he is seen as a hands-on administrator who understands both policy design and the nuts and bolts of delivery.

He has also cultivated a reputation for accessibility. Unlike many senior ministers, Vaishnav uses social media proactively, responding to public grievances and tracking complaints in real time. Beyond this, he holds the crucial Information and Broadcasting portfolio, placing him at the heart of the government’s sensitive media management operations, including coordination with the PMO. Reflecting this expanded role, a wing of the government’s top media team now functions from Rail Bhawan itself—an unusual but telling institutional coordination.

It is against this backdrop that his quiet arrival in Washington a few days ago assumes significance. Officially, the visit focused on critical minerals. Politically and economically, it was about much more. Vaishnav does not hold a trade or mining portfolio. His presence signalled something else: that he was acting as the Prime Minister’s economic emissary.

By sending a minister who combines proximity to Modi with direct control over industrial execution, New Delhi signalled seriousness to Washington. This was not exploratory diplomacy, but negotiation with intent. While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar continues to frame the strategic narrative and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal guards the trade perimeter, the center of gravity has clearly shifted. He has also been sent to Davos at the World Economic Forum meet.  The conversation has moved from diplomacy to deployability. Implementers are now at the forefront—and in that transition, Ashwini Vaishnav has emerged as Modi's muscat.

Ankita Bhandari case: BJP's Self-Inflicted Crisis

The BJP has perfected the art of marketing a political narrative putting rivals to lick the dust in states after states. Most of the Chief Ministers of the BJP-ruled states are having a comfortable time unless the high command decides to show them the door. For a while, everything seemed to be moving smoothly for the Pushkar Singh Dhami government in Uttarakhand. His standing was high with the top leadership of both the RSS and the BJP in terms of delivery and political management. But chinks in his armory surfaced in the murder of Ankita Bhandari case.

More than three years after this hotel receptionist was killed – and seven months after the accused in the case were convicted – fresh allegations surfaced with a senior BJP leader being accused of being involved in it. The fresh outrage forced the Chief Minister to visit Ankita Bhandari's parents and order a CBI probe to identify the alleged “VIP” involved in her murder.

This came as a shot in arm to the Congress and put the BJP on a weak wicket. The reason lay not in the investigation itself but in a series of avoidable missteps by BJP leaders that steadily muddied the narrative. If a CBI inquiry was inevitable to establish the identity of the VIP, the question arises as to why the same was not done earlier. The trigger, perhaps, was

when State BJP president Mahendra Bhatt branded whistle blower in the case a “Congress puppet.” The whistle blower, a North East student claimed that a person referred to as “G” was exerting pressure on Ankita Bhandari through Pulkit Arya for “special services,” and that her refusal led to her murder. Following these claims, the name of a senior BJP leader began circulating, forcing him to seek judicial intervention.

What’s in a Name? BJP’s Quiet Battle Over New Chief

The party’s top brass has quietly issued an internal advisory: senior leaders are requested—the word is doing heavy lifting here—to address the new chief strictly as Adhyakshji. Not Bhaiyyaji, not Nitin babu, and certainly not the dangerously affectionate “Arre Nitin!” The problem is age. Nabin is younger than almost everyone who matters, and Bihar BJP is populated by veterans who have been calling each other bhai since the Mandal era. Old habits, like old leaders, refuse to retire.

There is genuine anxiety in Delhi that a casual bhaiyyaji at a public meeting could puncture the carefully constructed authority of the new president. Two BJP Chief Ministers reportedly were heard calling him by the first name.  After all, respect in politics is often measured less by designation and more by how stiffly one folds their hands. For now, the circular stands. Whether Adhyakshji does is another matter entirely.

Why Congress Never Learns: TN Next

If there is one political lesson the Congress steadfastly refuses to absorb, it is the cost of indecision. The party dragged its feet on alliances in Bihar till the last moment and paid the price. Earlier, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa followed the same script—confusion and delayed decisions. Now, Tamil Nadu is beginning to look worryingly familiar.

The state unit is caught in a tug of war between the old guard and the Rahul Gandhi–aligned younger leadership. Veterans want to consolidate the alliance with the ruling DMK, arguing that survival in Tamil Nadu depends on staying firmly within the Dravidian fold. The younger leaders—Manickam Tagore and Jothimani —want the Congress to keep its options open by exploring a possible understanding with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Rahul Gandhi’s recent Tamil Nadu visit was expected to bring clarity. Instead, it deepened the ambiguity. His public criticism of the Censor Board over the denial of a Pongal release to Vijay’s film Jana Nayagan was read as a political signal, unsettling the DMK while energising the pro-TVK camp. For now, Rahul Gandhi appears to be reassuring the DMK even as he encourages his younger colleagues to keep the Vijay option alive—as leverage for more seats and power-sharing. It is a familiar Congress habit: hedge everywhere, decide nowhere, and hope time resolves contradictions. History suggests it rarely does.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

One Party, Two Bosses? The Perils of Reuniting the NCP

Speculation over a re-union of the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party — one led by Sharad Pawar and the other by his nephew Ajit Pawar — has gathered pace, making it one of Maharashtra’s most closely watched political developments. What started as a limited tactical understanding for a municipal election in Pimpri-Chinchwad has snowballed into serious talk of a formal merger, surprising even seasoned observers of Pawar politics.

The broad outline being discussed appears deceptively simple: Sharad Pawar would reclaim the position of supreme leader of a reunited NCP, while Ajit Pawar would continue as the undisputed power center in Maharashtra’s day-to-day politics and governance. On paper, it seems like a neat division of authority — the patriarch as national face and moral anchor, the nephew as the operational strongman.

But this formula is fraught with risk. Ajit Pawar is no longer the rebellious lieutenant he once was. After splitting the party, aligning with the BJP and securing the deputy chief minister’s post, he has tasted power independently, built his own network and demonstrated electoral and administrative clout. In the process, he has proved his worth not just as a survivor, but as a boss in his own right.

That raises the central question haunting merger talks: why would Ajit Pawar willingly return to a subordinate role under Sharad Pawar, especially when he commands legislators, resources and leverage? A re-union may help consolidate the NCP vote base and reduce fragmentation, but it also risks reopening old fault lines over authority, succession and control. For Sharad Pawar, the merger is about legacy. For Ajit Pawar, it is about power and autonomy. Reconciling the two may prove far more complicated than stitching together a pre-poll alliance.

How ED Blinked as Mamata Seized the Moment

Why did central officers not resist Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee when she arrived at the premises of I-PAC, questioned the raid, and reportedly walked away with files and material? And why did the agency appear to yield ground at the very moment its authority was being challenged?

One explanation doing the rounds in political and bureaucratic circles is institutional caution bordering on strategic retreat. Any attempt by ED officers to physically stop a sitting chief minister could have spiraled instantly—legally, politically and on the streets. The optics of central officers restraining Banerjee would have handed her a dramatic visual narrative of federal overreach, potentially triggering unrest in Kolkata and beyond.

There is also speculation that officers on the ground sought directions from senior officials in Delhi and were advised to back off.  The Delhi bosses sought the advice of their political masters too. Whether or not such instructions were explicitly given or consulted, could be anybody's guess. However, former bureaucrats say the “default rule” in such high-voltage situations is to avoid confrontation with constitutional authorities and let the legal process catch up later. As one former home secretary remarked privately, “You don’t win battles like this with muscle. You win them with paper and patience.”

In effect, the ED’s non-resistance reflects a larger strategic dilemma: enforcing the law without feeding a political narrative designed for confrontation. By stepping back, the agency may have preserved legal ground—but at the cost of appearing politically overawed. For Mamata Banerjee, that perception itself may have been the real prize. A final word will, however, come from the judiciary on the issue.

Fear of the Women’s Vote: BJP’s Bengal Dilemma

Just before a crucial Assembly election in Bihar, the Nitish Kumar government had announced a ₹10,000 payout to women under the Chief Minister’s Employment Scheme. The move dramatically altered the state’s political landscape. Around the same time, a video went viral from Bihar’s Belaganj seat in which a senior BJP leader was heard telling a journalist that women would not dare step out of their homes to vote for Nitish Kumar—and that any woman who did so would face consequences. The video caused serious embarrassment to the BJP, but it also revealed a deeper truth: women voters in Bihar had cut across caste lines to back Nitish Kumar.

A strikingly similar situation is now unfolding in West Bengal. A statement by BJP leader and state committee member Kalyan Sen Gupta has gone viral, in which he claims that women will vote for Mamata Banerjee because they benefit from the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme, and therefore women should be confined to their homes on polling day. The remark exposes not confidence, but fear within the BJP.

Mamata Banerjee’s government has been running the Lakshmir Bhandar scheme since 2021, under which women receive direct monthly cash transfers. Women from SC and ST communities get ₹1,200 per month, while others receive ₹1,000. Much like schemes such as Ladli Behna or Maiya Samman in other states, the program has had a deep political impact. In a state where feminine power and goddess worship are culturally embedded, the BJP often finds itself at a disadvantage.

Beyond Lakshmir Bhandar, the Trinamool Congress government runs several women-centric welfare and empowerment schemes. This has heightened BJP’s anxiety that women voters may rise above caste and religious identities to vote decisively for Mamata Banerjee’s party—reshaping Bengal’s political battle once again.

Rekha Gupta’s ‘History Lessons’

Social media is having a field day over Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta’s growing collection of “slips of the tongue”—though many are now asking whether these are slips at all, or something more fundamental. The trouble began when Gupta managed to misfire on not one but two of India’s tallest freedom fighters: Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and Bhagat Singh, triggering frantic damage control by BJP colleagues.

During the winter session of the Delhi Assembly, Gupta recalled the martyrdom of Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev and Rajguru, but said Bhagat Singh hurled a bomb to awaken a “deaf Congress government.” History, unfortunately, records that it was the British Raj—not the Congress—that executed Bhagat Singh. Days earlier, while invoking Netaji, Gupta referred to him as “Netaji Subhas Chandra Palace,” inadvertently renaming a revolutionary icon after a popular Pitampura marketplace known as NSP.

The list of gaffes has since grown: garbage hills being coaxed to leave “like brothers,” AQI described as “temperature,” and repeated historical misfires. Gupta has responded by introducing a gender angle, claiming the Opposition mocks her because it “cannot tolerate a woman CM at work.”

That argument, however, sits awkwardly in a city that has already seen three women chief ministers—without similar meme-festivals. Satire thrives not on gender, but on content. And in politics, as in history, the first rule is simple: facts matter. Especially when invoking martyrs who no longer have the luxury of correcting you.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

No Bed of Roses for Priyanka

The Congress’s decision to make Priyanka Gandhi Vadra  as chairperson of the Assam Congress screening committee marks her first substantive political assignment since her much-hyped but disappointing run as general secretary in Uttar Pradesh in 2022. This time, there will be few excuses. Assam is no bed of roses—and the Congress knows it.

Out of power since 2016, the Congress is attempting to hard-sell the 2026 Assembly elections as a comeback opportunity. It has announced plans to contest 100 of the state’s 126 seats while stitching together a non-BJP alliance with parties such as the Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI and CPI(M). Notably, the party has ruled out any tie-up with the All India United Democratic Front, branding it “communal”—a sharp departure from 2021, when the Congress-AIUDF alliance still failed to dislodge the BJP.

The numbers tell a sobering story. In 2021, the BJP-led NDA retained power with 75 seats. The Congress-led alliance managed 50 seats, of which the AIUDF alone won 16. However, the margin between the vote share of the two blocs was only 1.6 per cent

For Priyanka Gandhi, the challenge is two-fold. As screening committee chief, she must curb factionalism and resist the temptation of safe, familiar names in ticket distribution. Assam’s politics—shaped by ethnicity, identity and relentless BJP mobilisation—demands precision, not sentiment.

With the BJP setting an audacious target of 103 seats after it won 75 seats in 2021. This assignment will test whether Priyanka Gandhi can deliver hard political decisions, not just headlines. In Assam, symbolism will count for little. Results will count for everything.

Sun set for Pawar in RS ?

Maharashtra's tallest leader Sharad Pawar had hinted some time ago at retiring from active politics. But such statements by politicians rarely mean much. When he stopped contesting Lok Sabha elections, he handed over the Baramati seat to his daughter Supriya Sule, who has since won it four times in a row. After that, Pawar moved to the Rajya Sabha.

But this time, his party has won only 10 Assembly seats. How will Pawar return to the Rajya Sabha now? The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — the Shiv Sena (Uddhav), Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP(SP) — has a total of 51 MLAs: Uddhav’s Sena 20, Congress 16, Pawar’s party 10 and a few associates, can win one Rajya Sabha seat.

Of the seven seats falling vacant in the state, two belong to Pawar’s group, and one each to Uddhav Sena and Congress. If MVA parties agree, they can send Sharad Pawar back to the Rajya Sabha. But will they? Pawar camp is hopeful as parties switched alliances in local bodies' polls. They can come together for Rajya Sabha polls too as there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics — only permanent interests.

Similarly, the long parliamentary journey of former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda also appears to be nearing its end. Deve Gowda, 90 years has been a member of one House or the other continuously. He handed over his Lok Sabha seat to his grandson. Now his Rajya Sabha term is ending. With only 19 MLAs, his party cannot win a seat on its own.

With four Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant, the BJP is likely to win one. Deve Gowda can return to the Rajya Sabha only if the BJP gives its seat to the JD(S). Since two BJP MPs are retiring and the party is expected to win one seat, it is doubtful the BJP would spare it for Deve Gowda. But the JD(S) has not given up hope.

Why Shashi Tharoor Is Changing His Tune

For weeks, Shashi Tharoor appeared to be singing from an unexpectedly conciliatory hymn sheet. The Congress MP was seen backing the government on several initiatives, prompting whispers in Lutyens’ Delhi: was Tharoor inching closer to the BJP, or at least drifting away from the Congress’ combative line? That narrative is now fraying.

Over the last few days, Tharoor has unmistakably shifted gears, emerging as one of the most structured and substantive critics of the Modi government in the Winter Session of Parliament. He opposed the dilution of MGNREGA and strongly objected to the G Ram G saying “Ram Ka Naam Badnam Na Karo”. Many Congressmen wondered as to why Tharoor was fielded by the party when he had been openly hob-nobing with the BJP. Tharoor also took on the government over the controversial bill opening up the nuclear energy sector to private players, arguing that strategic sectors cannot be surrendered to corporate risk-taking.

The turning point came when Tharoor authored a sharply worded column in a leading English daily, accusing the government of reducing Parliament to a “rubber stamp.” It was not the rhetoric of a fence-sitter, but of a parliamentarian deeply alarmed by executive overreach and legislative bypassing.

So why does the speculation about his exit from Congress persist? Partly because Tharoor refuses to conform to the party’s loud-but-loose style of opposition. His critique is methodical, policy-driven, and anchored in constitutional language—qualities often mistaken for softness in today’s hyper-partisan climate. If anything, Tharoor’s “changing tune” says less about ideological drift and more about the party’s discomfort with disciplined dissent that doesn’t come wrapped in daily outrage.

Tailpiece: Sadhna Singh was always in the news when Shivraj Singh Chouhan was Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. The better half was often referred to as half CM. But ever since Chouhan has been shifted to Delhi and inducted into the Union Cabinet, she has hardly been seen or heard.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP Working president Nitin Nabin for Rajya Sabha

Battle for 5 seats begins in Bihar 

Harish Gupta

Nitin Nabin, BJP's newly appointed Working president, is likely to be brought to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar when the state goes for biennial polls in March-April this year. There are reports that the BJP may bring a new face in Rajya Sabha for the second seat as well. It will be a big gain for the BJP as none of the five retiring Rajya Sabha Mps belong to it.

The BJP is unlikely to give Rajya Sabha seat to Upendra Kushwaha (RLM) this time. He had been brought to the Rajya Sabha two years ago by the BJP. Now that Kushwaha insisted on appointing his son as a minister in Bihar without being an MLA, it has cast a shadow over his Rajya Sabha prospects. The son may be made an MLC from the seat vacated by BJP's Mangal Pandey.

Of the five seats falling vacant in Bihar, the Janata Dal (U) will win two seats and a bitter battle may be witnessed for the 5^th seat given the composition of the state Assembly. The Janata Dal (U) is likely to retain its two Mps -Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha Harivansh and Union Minister of State Ram Nath Thakur barring unforeseen reasons.

Two MPs of the RJD, Prem Chand Gupta and A.D. Singh  are retiring. It is yet to be seen if the Opposition fields a joint candidate for the 5^th seat. But it sounds difficult given the current political scenario. The Mahagathbandhan has 35 MLAs (RJD-25, INC -6, CPI(ML)L-2, CPI(M)-1 & IIP-1. The MGB needs the support of AIMIM (5) and BSP (1) to win the seat. In a House of 243, the NDA has 202 MLAs (BJP-89, JDU-85 LJP-19, HAM -5 and RLM-4.