by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

10 Rajya Sabha seats up for grab in 4 states 

BJP strength may go up, Defections galore continues 

Even as the process of Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and bypolls for 50 Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in states is underway, the Election Commission may also have to hold elections for four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu & kashmir and by-polls for a few other states. These polls may be held after the current round of polling. 

The Upper House had an effective strength of 231, with the BJP having 95 members of its own. There are 12 vacancies including Jammu & Kashmir (4), Andhra Pradesh (4), Nominated (4), Odisha (1) and Haryana (1). Two members of the YSRCP and one member of the BJD have quit as Rajya Sabha MPs recently. The BJD member -- Sujeet Kumar -- has since joined the BJP,  which is expected to win the bypoll in the state. The two YSRCP members -- M Venkataramana Rao and B Masthan Rao -- quit their membership of the upper house and they are expected to join the TDP, a BJP ally in Andhra Pradesh.

Elections for four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir will be held after nearly four years following the swearing-in of the National Conference-led government of Omar Abdullah. The National Conference-Congress is expected to win three Rajya Sabha seats as the strength of alliance including CPI-M, AAP and five Independents have taken the strength to 55. The BJP, which finished second with a best-haul of 29 seats, could get one Rajya Sabha seat.

National Conference supremo Farooq Abdullah is likely to be nominated to Rajya Sabha while BJP may send one of its senior leaders to the Upper House. Former Deputy Chief Ministers Nirmal Singh and Kavinder Gupta, who were denied tickets for Assembly polls, are the frontrunners for the BJP's Rajya Sabha nomination.

Lobbying in BJP is on for the one Rajya Sabha seat in Haryana vacated by BJP MP Krishanpal Panwar who became an MLA from Israna Assembly seat.  Kuldeep Bishnoi and others are also in the race.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Canada Softens, Modi Hardens

If PM Modi is going out of his way to placate the USA over allegations of Indians involved in the plot to murder Pannu on the American soil, he has hardened his stand against Canada over allegations of murder of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last year.

Modi is reported to be extremely upset as the Canadian PM tried to damage the image of India and named Indian government officials linked to the murder. Since India had been soft towards Canada since the time immemorial (Kanishka bombing in 1985), Modi decided to take the bull by the horn. Canada is somewhat isolated as well though the 'Five-eye' countries (US, UK, New Zealand and Australia) share all intelligence information with it on all sensitive issues. But the Canadian PM crossed the line when he made allegations against the 'Indian Government' merely on the basis of “intelligence inputs” rather than on hard evidence.

The other four countries including the USA are doing the lip service with Canada as everyone is keen to do business with India. Canada is aware that not all of the three million Indian diaspora on its soil are not Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada. Modi has made deep inroads into this diaspora. Now the Canadian government is sending friendly overtures as Canadian universities are finding it difficult to financially survive without Indian students. The Canadian government is facing massive unrest due to unemployment in the country, and price rise. India also allayed fears of this latest row with Ottawa impacting the Indian diaspora there when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the issue was limited to a particular line of politics. “We would like to maintain people-to-people relations” he said. It emerges that the Indian government has withdrawn the massive Police security cover given to the Canadian High commission in Chanakyapuri here and told them that they will have to hire their own private guards.

Paying Price Silently

All Secretaries of the country's top espionage external Intelligence agency, the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), remain silent and invisible. If they are rewarded, it is done behind the curtains and within the four walls of the fraternity and if they suffer, they have to suffer in silence too. The last RAW Chief who hung his boots was 1984-batch Punjab cadre IPS officer Samant Kumar Goel. He was picked up by the Modi government to head the RAW considering his impressive record of fighting against terror in Punjab when it was at its peak and demitted office in June 2023. He had done commendable work as RAW Chief and reported to have played a key role in the government's “Pro-active policy” against Pakistan in identifying terror modules operating from their soil and destroying terror networks. He was instrumental in creating a network of informers across Pakistan who were virtually eliminated during the UF and Congress dispensation in the past. He is perhaps the only former RAW Chief who was provided with Z-category security by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) after his retirement due to perceived threat to his life. Insiders in the Modi dispensation say that Samant Goel was to be rewarded with a Constitutional post due to his tremendous contribution. But it so happened that the controversy erupted in Canada and the USA about the role of some modules allegedly connected to the agency. Though no proof has surfaced so far. But this has made Goel suffer in anonymity.

Congress' RS Litmus test; thanks to Maharashtra

After the Haryana debacle, a win for Congress and its allies in Maharashtra and Jharkhand is crucial. It may be a do- or-die battle for the principal Opposition party due to a variety of reasons, the foremost being its lead role in the Rajya Sabha. A loss for Congress particularly in Maharashtra may cause turbulence in the Rajya Sabha where it is already vulnerable as it had seen defections of many of its senior leaders in the past. The Congress currently has 27 Mps in its kitty, just two more to retain the post of the Leader of the Opposition (LoP), occupied by Mallikarjun Kharge. If the party loses Maharashtra, there is a possibility that a few of its MPs hailing from Maharashtra and even Karnataka may quit the Congress. The BJP has already identified five such Rajya Sabha MPs who are vulnerable. The Congress is in poor shape in Delhi where Assembly polls are due and Bihar is also not a bed of roses either given the current situation. The Assembly polls are due in these states in 2025. Secondly, Team-Rahul continues to behave in an arrogant manner and even Rahul Gandhi has not changed his style of functioning as he continues to be a delusionalist. A delusionalist  person believes things that couldn't possibly be true. If you're convinced that the microwave is attempting to control your thoughts, you are, sadly, delusional.

Nitish Missing the Plot!

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's absence from the swearing-in-ceremony of Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini raised many eyebrows. Reason; Nitish was the only NDA CM to miss the event though Prime Minister Modi was personally monitoring the event. It was a turning point for the BJP as it won third consecutive term in a row and Nitish's absence was not in good taste for the NDA either. It now transpires that Nitish Kumar had personally telephoned Modi and gave “some reason” for his inability to travel. Though Nitish attended the “Ravana vadh” ceremony during Dussehra in Patna, he missed the shot which revealed the true status of his health. Nitih Kumar was to shoot an arrow at the effigy of the demon king so that the fireworks could begin and engulf it in flames. The Governor, Rajendra Arlekar was also present on the occasion. But Kumar fumbled and his bow and arrow fell on the ground. The effigy went up in flames without Kumar’s arrow. This slip-up was panned by politicians cutting across party lines.

Obviously, earlier reports of his health being in good shape were not correct, feeling whether it was yet another instance of Kumar suffering from dementia. While the Opposition pointed out that the arrow is the election symbol of Kumar’s JD (U), has missed the target and 2025 will be his Waterloo.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Harish Gupta

Modi's Caste googly

Prime Minister Narendra Modi virtually silenced the Opposition parties including Rahul Gandhi who were demanding holding Caste Census without further delay. Modi bitter;ly attacked the Congress for dividing the Hindu society on the caste lines for political gains. But this was only the beginning. Modi googly came when he asked why the Congress never asked to conduct the Caste Census of the Muslims and other religions too. After all, Muslims are also divided on the Caste lines and there are among the Muslims who are virtually untouchable and out-caste. Political analysts say that Modi is perhaps the first political leader in India who has raised the issue of why the Congress did not hold or raised the issue of holding Caste Census among the Muslims. Why are the Hindus being singled out, he wondered. It is said that the Muslims are divided largely into the Shias, the Sunnis and Pasmandas who are very poor and largely treated as out castes. Rahul Gandhi has not reacted to Modi's statement. But Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge alleged that the PM is on the path of dividing the country on religious lines. But Modi's statement reveals the government's intentions that it is toying with the idea of holding Caste Census if such a Census is agreeable across other religions too. This will be like opening another Pandora's box and too hot a subject. Even BJP's partners in the NDA have also maintained a silence on the issue. Perhaps, the issue may crop up in the Winter session of Parliament which will be held after the results of Maharashtra & Jharkhand Assembly polls are out on November 23. Modi's googly has gladdened the hearts of the RSS leadership as well.

Why No Rahul-Omar Chemistry !

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi seems to be somewhat cold to National Conference Vice president and now Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. It is unimaginable that Rahul Gandhi did not congratulate Omar Abdullah on his big Assembly win in the Union Territory against heavy odds. He made no personal phone call to him either. Rather, he chose to telephone Dr Farooq Abdullah on the INDIA bloc win in J&K while Omar Abdullah telephoned Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on the alliance getting a majority.

Though the Abdullahs have been having extremely cordial relations with the Gandhis. But Omar Abdullah has been very upset with Rahul Gandhi for his style of functioning as an alliance partner in the state. It was decided that the Congress would focus on seats in the Jammu region and take on the BJP head-on while the NC will fight with BJP and its proxies in Naya Kashmir. But Rahul Gandhi chose to campaign in the Naya Kashmir areas particularly on seats where the Congress was having a friendly fight with the NC. Omar had to speak up about it and went on to question the Congress leaders for not campaigning in Jammu on September 26 a week before the final phase of polling on October 1.

Omar Abdullah went on record to say, “I hope after Rahul is done campaigning in one or two seats in Kashmir, he focuses on Jammu. Ultimately what the Congress does in Kashmir is not important. What the Congress does in Jammu is important.” Rahul ended up showing Congress' worst performance not only in Haryana but also in Jammu as well.

Rahul's stony silence on NC Win

Rahul Gandhi's conspicuous silence all through on October 8 when the results of Haryana and J&K were out surprised many. Finally, he put out a post on social media on the Assembly election results the next day promising to analyze the reasons for the Congress’s shock defeat in Haryana but made no mention of the party’s performance in J&K. He skipped any reference to the National Conference, which won 42 of the 49 seats while the Congress could barely win six seats.

Rahul Gandhi not only avoided talking to Omar Abdullah but also made no mention of the National Conference on the “X” one day after the poll results. The poor performance of Congress is attributed to Rahul Gandhi's failure to address any joint rally with Omar Abdullah during the poll campaign though Farooq Abdullah did join the Congress leader at a public meeting on his last trip. Omar Abdullah is miffed that the Congress has not focused enough on the Jammu region where it was in direct contest with the BJP.

Tailpiece: Eyebrows were raised at the BJP's headquarters when party's musket and general secretary Vinod Tawade raised a slogan from the podium welcoming PM Modi, “Modi ji Vikas Karo Hum Tumhare Saath Hein”. The occasion was celebrating the party's historic win in Haryana polls and credit went solely to Modi. Tawade raised the slogan and the crowd roared though a few wondered why the slogan was raised. Perhaps, Tawade was part of a close-door meeting with Modi and others prior to the celebrations.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

BJP's brush with its women leaders

Bollywood actress cum first term Lok Sabha MP Kangna Ranaut is not the first woman leader who has embarrassed the party. She has done it on several occasions in the past as she is brutally frank and known for speaking her mind. She recently claimed that the farmers' protests in 2020 were a build up to a “Bangladesh-like situation” in India and several killings and rapes were reported from the protest sites. There was a huge outcry in Haryana BJP which is already on the back foot and distanced itself from Ranaut’s remarks. As if this was not enough, she was also directed to retract her statement.

Even before she joined the BJP, she made headlines for making nasty remarks against the Opposition leaders and parties. It was due to these qualities that the BJP leadership rewarded her with a Lok Sabha ticket and she won. But the BJP is now finding it extremely embarrassing as she keeps speaking her "mind" on one issue or the other. But this is the first time she has been forced to retract her remarks. However, Kangna is not the first BJP woman leader who has embarrassed the BJP. The party has a long list of such women leaders barring late Sushma Swaraj. The fire-brand Hindu icon Pragya Thakur was brought to the Lok Sabha from Madhya Pradesh with much fan-fare and throughout her five year tenure, she ran into one controversy or the other. The BJP also had its ups and down with Uma Bharati and to some extent with Smriti Irani as well. Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasudhara Raje Scindia's brush with the party high command is continuing even now. The BJP had also been uncomfortable with Maharashtra's Pankja Munde though all is well now.

Manoj Sinha, BJP's new star on horizon

With the almost violence free conduct of polls in Jammu & kashmir, the Modi dispensation is extremely happy with Lieutenant Governor  Manoj Sinha. He has been at the helm of affairs after the utter failure of his predecessors; be it Satya Pal Malik or G C Murmu who ran into one controversy or the other. Earlier, the Modi dispensation retained N N Vohra from 2014 to August 2018 as Governor, an appointee of PM Manmohan Singh. Vohra served the state for more than 10 years. But it was Manoj Sinha who delivered what Modi desired. Malik fell out with Modi after he was shifted to Goa and later to Meghalaya while G C Murmu had to be brought to Delhi as CAG.

Manoj Sinha had missed the bus for the CM's post in 2017 and had lost Lok Sabha polls too in 2019. He was picked up by Modi as LG J&K where he proved his mettle as an able administrator and astute politician. If the BJP is able to form a government with the help of individual groups and Independents in the Valley, Sinha's graph will shoot up further. There are reports that he will be adequately rewarded after the new government stabilizes in the state. Sinha has strong roots in the RSS and is extremely close to Modi and Amit Shah. There are many who say he may be the dark horse for the post of the BJP president though it will be a long shot.

No playing to the tunes of agencies

It seems the Congress has decided to toe the line of other INDIA block Chief Ministers who refused to resign merely on the ground of a case of corruption being registered by the agencies or even on court orders. Though Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren had resigned after the ED took his custody. But Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal stood his ground and stayed put for nearly six months while in jail. With the various high courts and even SC coming down heavily on the agencies for rushing to arresting people and keeping them in jail without even filing a chargesheet or accelerating trial, the Congress has decided to follow the same path. Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah has not filed an appeal against the HC order and nor quit in the MUDA scam. The Congress appears to have taken a cue from the BJP even after Siddaramaiah's petition was dismissed by the Kartataka high court challenging the Governor’s sanction for investigating the “illegal” allotment of land to his wife. Though the Opposition is pressing for his resignation, the Congress seems to have stood by Siddharamiah until a chargesheet is filed.

A Third Intellectual Forum Emerges 

After the tremendous success of Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) and India Foundation, a third such organization is making waves in the Lutyens' Delhi. The VIF was founded by Ajit Doval who rose to become the National Security Adviser. All those connected to the VIF made a huge contribution to the cause for which it was created in 2009 and many of its leading lights are playing a key role in the Modi dispensation. Then came the Ram Madhav-led India Foundation which is working in many areas relating to security and international affairs. Ram Madhav was once close to Modi and later sent back to the RSS and now back in action in J&K as Modi's point's man. 

Come 2024 and a new Foundation emerged under the nomenclature of ‎ World Intellectual Forum (WIF). Its key man is veteran RSS leader Ram Lal who was BJP's general secretary (Organisation) for many years. He was replaced by B L Santoh. Ram Lal is the key person  behind the WIF. Thinkers, intellectuals and activists from across the globe descended in Delhi to attend its major meeting here quietly. Ram Lal is highly respected in the RSS and the BJP and popular with the cadre.