by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

Sharing the Booty

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known to be a solo player and a master of his own. Those who dealt with him in Gujarat when he was Chief Minister, say that he doesn't like dissenting voices and those who differed with him, paid a heavy price. The list of these persons is very long. But Modi created a countrywide fervor by bringing a new working culture. It was on the back of his 13 years' stint as CM that he became the first leader in 30 years to get a full majority in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He improved his tally further in 2019 and took the BJP to new heights winning 303 seats. But 2024 gave a major blow to the 'Brand Modi' as the BJP was reduced to 240 Lok Sabha seats. No doubt, Modi formed a coalition government with 293 Mps. But the BJP remains in a denial mode and continue projecting as if there is no difference between the Modi 2.0 and the Modi 3.0 governments. Political analysts say these are early days and as it will take time to reconcile that there is difference between the Modi 2.0 and Modi 3.0 governments as these are early days. The BJP's allies are also busy sorting out their own affairs. However, many of them have tasted Modi government's style of functioning during the past 10 years. They are aware as to how the BJP treated its allies and others during this period. But they have started talking about issues of their interests and will soon demand their pound of flesh in appointments of Governors, chairmen and members in commissions and tribunals, directors in PSUs etc. During his second term in office, Modi's Establishment did not even listen to the wishes of the RSS functionaries in such appointments. The BJP will be under pressure to share the booty with its allies.

Why the BJP will be on its toes 

The BJP may have created history by forming a government at the Centre for third consecutive terms. But it will have to pass the muster again in 2024 to establish its supremacy. The party has lost a lot of ground and a question mark has been put on its invincibility as it ended up winning 240 Lok Sabha seats, 32 short of a majority. In order to regain its clout, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have to win at least two out of three Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. Though Assembly polls are likely to take place in J&K also, the government is toying with the idea of holding it before undertaking similar exercise in other three states. Interestingly, the BJP is ruling these three states and was going strong before the Lok Sabha outcome shocker. The BJP and its allies miserably failed to keep the momentum in Maharashtra and Haryana and barely managed to win a majority of Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand. The Mahayuti lost majority of Lok Sabha seats to the shock and disbelief and has created a lot of uncertainties among the three partners; the BJP-Sena-NCP. The BJP's only silver lining is that the Shiv Sena (UBT) faction led by Uddhav Thackeray is no longer the  messiah of Hindutva forces as he is in alliance with Sharad Pawar and the Congress who claim to be the representative of "secular" forces in the state. Similarly, the BJP has a problem in hand in Haryana as well where it has been in power for ten years. But it lost five out of the ten Lok Sabha seats despite changing the Chief Minister and won two seats with a very thin margin. The BJP has made three Union Ministers from the tiny state to win Assembly polls. In Jharkhand, the BJP will have to face a resurgent INDIA Bloc though it won 9 out of 14 seats. Any adverse outcome in these states will create more uncertainties in the NDA alliance.

How Jairam Ramesh made a mark

Jairam Ramesh, former Union Minister and four term Rajya Sabha MP, proved his mettle this General Elections by his astute handling of media strategy and showed his communication skills as head of the Congress' Media Department. He has been a solo player wherever he worked during the past 45 years. His first job in India was as Assistant to economist Lovraj Kumar at the Bureau of Industrial Costs and Prices in 1979 and never looked back. After graduating from IIT Bombay in 1975 with a B.Tech. in Mechanical Engineering and studying at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College, he started on the Doctoral program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology too. He held key portfolios in the Manmohan Singh government from 2009 to 2014. But he was in search of a role after the Congress lost power and waited for ten long years to prove his skills and built a narrative to counter the BJP successfully. This was the first time that the BJP's media department met its match in Jairam Ramesh as he was working 24X7. Rahul Gandhi virtually gave him a free hand irrespective of a few contrary voices. Jairam Ramesh brooks no nonsense and perhaps among a couple of those leaders whom Rahul Gandhi listens to.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

After Brickbats, the Bonhomie!

The storm that engulfed the RSS and its political arm's (the BJP)73 years long political journey has died down. The relationship that began in October 1951 saw its golden era under RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat as its “Swayamsevak” (Volunteer) is ruling the country for a third term in a row. But this bond saw its worst when the BJP Chief, J P Nadda said in an interview to a leading English newspaper that the party doesn't need the support of the RSS anymore. “We are capable now. Earlier, we needed their (RSS) support but not anymore” Nadda declared on May 21, 2024, in the midst of the Lok Sabha polls. Mohan Bhagwat, waited for more than three weeks to respond to this unusual salvo fired by Nadda. He did not react even on June 4 when the BJP fell 32 seats short of a majority and chose to speak on June 11, 2024 at Nagpur. Bhagwat said, “A true Sevak (the one who serves the people) never shows arrogance and always maintains decorum in public life...the one who maintains decorum does his work, but remains unattached. There is no arrogance that I did this. Only such a person has the right to be called a Sevak.”

Bhagwat's message was loud and clear. But those hoping for this discourse to continue for long were in for a surprise as nothing of the sort happened as BJP realized that without the RSS it may be reduced to a "New Congress" as it is full of defectors. Modi also realized that the "Sangh Parivar" is supreme and not "Modi-Ka Parivar". Within days of Bhagwat's Nagpur sermon, three top functionaries of the RSS met Nadda to discuss the current political situation. No official word has emerged out of this meeting so far. But it is expected that the RSS will continue to have a role in the appointment of new BJP Chief and loyal workers will be taken care of by the government.

Why PK Mishra has reasons to Smile

Prime Minister's Principal Secretary P K Mishra is virtually a nameless and faceless officer. But Modi had developed a liking for this Gujarat cadre IAS officer during his days as Chief Minister. Modi has a God gifted knack to assess deliverable persons. PK Mishra is among such personnel. Even when Modi was in Gujarat, he specially telephoned Sharad Pawar requesting to help Mishra with a good posting in Delhi. Pawar who was Agriculture Minister, obliged and appointed him as Agriculture Secretary who was on deputation to Delhi. When Modi became PM, Mishra was made Deputy Principal Secretary in the PMO. Nripendra Mishra was Modi's Principal Secretary who delivered Ram Temple to him before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Nripendra Mishra's son was rewarded with a Lok Sabha ticket. It's a different matter that he lost. But P K Mishra who hails from Odisha, had a political role too. It is rumoured that he played a role in the selection of Droupadi Murmu, a tribal leader, to be selected for the post of the President. Murmu's selection paid rich dividends to BJP not only in Odisha but in other tribal states as well. It is also learnt that Murmu played a role in the selection of BJP's first-time MLA Naba Charan Majhi, for the prestigious Mayurbhanj Lok Sabha seat, replacing Union Minister Bishweswar Tudu. Majhi, a staunch supporter of Murmu, had worked with her in the 1990s. PK Mishra frequently interacted with Odiya bureaucrats and played a key role in assessing the political situation on the ground and silently played his role in winning Odisha for the BJP.

The importance of being Ashwini Vaishnav

Among the 30-member strong Union Ministers in the Modi 3.0 Cabinet, Ashwini Vaishnav is the only one to be given the charge of three ministries; Railways, IT and Information & Broadcasting.   Even four times former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan lost Panchayati Raj when given Agriculture & Rural Development ministries.  Even Leader of the Rajya Sabha Piyush Goyal lost Food and Consumer Affairs after being elected to the Lok Sabha. He has to remain contended with Commerce and Industries. Another confidante of the Modi dispensation Bhupendra Yadav lost Labour & Unemployment and left with Environment and Climate Change. Dr Mansukh Mandavia and Dharmendra Pradhan also lost a lot of fat.

Ashwini Vaishnav, apart from getting three ministries, is also being groomed for the party work and playing a role in overseeing elections in one part or the other. It was speculated earlier that Vaishnav may be entrusted with the Finance Ministry. But Nirmala Sitharaman survived largely because the BJP did not get 300 + seats and Modi went into status- cosiest mode. The BJP insiders said Vaishnav was the real architect of the party's manifesto although Defence Minister Rajnath Singh headed the Manifesto committee. After the launch, Vaishnaw held a video conference with key party leaders and briefed them about the manifesto's salient features.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

The emergence of a Flexible Modi!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved his critics wrong once again by showing tremendous flexibility in the wake of BJP's shock defeat at the hustings. He took no time in dumping the “Modi Sarkar” slogan and repeatedly stressed that it's an NDA government and will usher in a new era. Those who were accusing him of being a “megalomania” and would be incapable of carrying partners along, were running for  cover on June 4 evening when he addressed BJP workers at the party's headquarters. While workers were shouting the “Modi Sarkar Zindabad” slogans, he repeatedly told them that it was an NDA win and kept harping on the theme of running the country by “Consensus”. Incidentally, Modi never uttered this word even once during his 10 year regime. But he showed tremendous alacrity to adjust in a changed political environment. Surely; it's a lesson to students of political science. 

However, Modi's major challenge will be to run a coalition due to trust deficit between the BJP and its alliance partners in the past. Modi has been a solo player and there is a lurking feeling that once he settles down he may not show the same courtesy as was being given to partners during the NDA government formation process. The allocation of sundry portfolios to them after taking oath does not augur well.

Modi is No PV Or Atal

It must be borne in mind that Modi is no P V Narasimha Rao who ran a coalition with 240 Congress Mps between 1991-96 amidst one crisis after the other. Modi is no Atal Behari Vajpayee either who will allow a Giridhar Gamang to vote out his government by his single vote in Lok Sabha in 1999. Gamang had just become the Odisha Chief Minister and had not quit his Lok Sabha seat when Congress brought a no-confidence motion against Vajpayee who was running a coalition government with 182 BJP MPs. Gamang was eligible to cast his vote in a confidence motion and his one vote led to the fall of the Vajpayee government. Modi is a hands-on PM working 24X7 and according to him has a strong sixth sense and that divine power enables him to change strategy without loss of time. The way he dumped the Land Acquisition Ordinance in August 2015 after issuing it twice surprised many of his staunch followers. He did the same somersault by withdrawing three Farm Laws in November 2021 sensing the public mood. Therefore, he is unlikely to adopt a path of confrontation in his third term at least until he wins three upcoming Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana. The only tragedy is that the BJP high command demolished one strong state leader after the other and installed Chief Ministers of its choice. The BJP's “open door” policy of admitting all kinds of elements weakened the party apparatus. The BJP lost its image of being “party with a difference”. The BJP leadership will also have to regain the confidence of its mother organisation, the RSS. Even before the last vote had been cast, party president JP Nadda contentiously declared on May 19, 2024 that the BJP had become saksham (competent) and as a result of which, it was no longer dependent on the RSS. The statement ruffled feathers and the BJP is now bending backward to placate the RSS.

Why Yogi has a reason to Smile

There is no dearth of BJP leaders claiming that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will  be removed in the wake of massive drubbing that the party faced in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. The BJP lost nearly half of the 62 seats it had won in 2019 instead of improving the tally in 2024. The BJP ended up getting 33 seats, four less than the Samajwadi Party. The blame for the massive loss is laid at the door-step of Yogi Adityanath. The absence of two Deputy Chief Ministers; Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, from the Cabinet meeting summoned by Yogi in Lucknow after the debacle, indicates that a full blown war may erupt sooner than expected. It is whispered that the ground is being prepared to replace Yogi with a leader who is less aggressive in "kamandal" politics and identified with "Mandal". But no one is sure if the writ of the high command will prevail in the changed political circumstances. No one is also sure if the RSS will agree to Yogi's ouster as it would dilute its own Hindutva agenda. Yogi's supporters are saying that not a single Lok Sabha ticket was allotted in UP by him and all the candidates were selected by the high command. Yogi's baiter, Sunil Bansal who was incharge of Odisha, Telangana and West Bengal, was brought back to UP to oversee Lok Sabha polls in UP.  Yogi followed every instruction of the high command with regard to the schedule of campaigning and had no role whatsoever in crafting strategies either.  Therefore, he should not be made a scapegoat.

Tailpiece: Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has created quite a political stir by repeatedly touching Modi's feet in full public view. This is a first of its kind as Nitish is a leader in his own right. No one has been able to decipher the mystery behind it. No doubt, he is suffering from dementia. But why does he choose Modi alone if he has dementia? One theory is that Modi has made arrangements with regard to his treatment in London. Nitish Kumar went to London in the midst of Lok Sabha polls in March and is likely to go again. It may take a while when the mystery may unfold.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP not to share Speaker's post, Key portfolios

Modi giving final touches to list of Ministers to be inducted

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is giving final touches to his new Council of Ministers to be sworn-in along with him later this week. According to informed sources, the ministerial team would be quite large.

Modi has already tasked BJP president J P Nadda, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah to talk to allies to finalize names to be inducted. The 3-member group is also talking to BJP's state leaders in this regard.

It has also emerged that none of the allies has sought the Speaker's post or key portfolios like the Home, Defence, Finance & External Affairs. Of course, they have their regional aspirations for faster development. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is more keen to hold early Assembly polls in his state along with Haryana and Maharashtra along with his demand to be granted special status outside the ambit of the NITI Aayog. He may be wanting tweaking of the “Agniveer” scheme too.

A formula of inducting ministers from BJP's 16 allies is being worked out and one member from each of the parties will be taken and those having more than 4-5 Mps in the Lok Sabha may get two to three berths.

Since 22 Union Ministers including four Cabinet Ministers (Arjun Munda, Smriti Irani, RK Singh and Mahendra Nath Pandey) lost Lok Sabha polls, the BJP will see a large number of new faces. It is learnt that many of the strong regional leaders such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan and a couple of other former Chief Ministers may be inducted. Since a number of state Assemblies will be going to polls in 2024-25, heavyweights may have to be inducted. 

Sources in the BJP also affirm that Modi has skills to run a coalition government though he has no such experience during his 23 years of running governments in Gujarat & Delhi. He showed tremendous flexibility and retreated on the Land Acquisition Bill and Farm laws.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The RSS-BJP Riddle

The results of 2024 Lok Sabha polls with the BJP missing the magic figure of 272 seats in a House of 543, may have shocked millions of Modi-Bhakts. But many in the Sangh Parivar believe that the BJP leadership is itself to be blamed for such a messy situation. They say that the BJP ignored early warnings given to it by the RSS leaders. They had apprised the BJP about “rural distress” and other weaknesses in the countryside and urged that the same be addressed without delay. But the BJP was extremely over-confident and living in its own make-believe world. The RSS was seeing a repeat moment of 2004 when Atal Behari Vajpayee was riding on “the India shining moment” and missed the bus by a handful of Lok Sabha seats. In 2024, the BJP-led NDA government did the same 20 years later and relied on a sky-rocketing share market. It claimed to create history by “Abki Baar ….400 Paar”. In its over enthusiasm, the BJP did not care for the party's senior leadership in states and some of them were even humiliated. The Lok Sabha tickets were distributed to whomever it wanted ignoring recommendations of other stakeholders as per past practice. Even the process of taking the opinion of RSS pracharaks deputed to the BJP at the district level was not sought. It was in this background a report emerged that all is not well between the RSS and the BJP. No one was willing to comment on what happened in Nagpur on April 19 when PM Modi had a night halt at Raj Bhawan. The RSS leadership was worried with BJP's aggressive strategy of “open door policy” for tainted leaders and ignoring party loyalists. The image that the BJP is a party with a difference has been compromised in order to attain a brute majority. Though RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat was also in the city to cast his vote, the suspense continues on the issue.

The Nadda shocker

In the midst of all this, came the finale when BJP president J P Nadda said in an interview in the midst of Lok Sabha polls that the party needed the RSS during the initial period. “Now that the party has grown and capable, the BJP can run on its own”, he added. It was a clear message to the RSS that its 'pracharaks' are no longer needed to help the BJP in its political work. The absence of BJP general secretary (Organization) B L Santosh from the media glare for the past few months may be largely due to this very reason. Insiders in the Sangh Parivar say that the current BJP dispensation didn't like any back-seat driving in the decision making process. The RSS will continue to be its ideological mentor but it will not be playing any role in its day-to-today activities. The RSS workers, it is said, did not play any pro-active in these elections either. Ever since the RSS floated its political wing in 1952 under the nomenclature of Bhartiya Jan Sangh, this was the first time it did not play any role in the poll process including selection of  candidates and related activities. With the BJP getting a big jolt in the Lok Sabha polls, the last word on their future relationship is yet to be written.

A shocker from the EC too

The Chief Election Commissioner, Rajiv Kumar, may have accepted his mistake by holding longest ever Lok Sabha polls stretching up to 45 days. This was the first time in Parliamentary history of the country that despite having most-modern techniques in hand, it was the longest ever poll since 1957. The first General Elections in 1952 were held between 25 October 1951 to 21 February 1952, after India attained independence in 1947. But Rajiv Kumar failed to explain as to why he did so ignoring 'Red Alert' warnings issued by the Indian Meteorological Department that a massive heat wave will engulf most parts from mid-May onward in many North Indian states. He could have held the LS polls a month ahead. But he didn't and this led to the death of even those on Election Commission's duty during April-May. He may be wiser after the event but the damage has been done.

Tailpiece: Why is everyone celebrating !

The outcome of the 18^th Lok Sabha has given reasons to almost everybody to cheer it about. The BJP is happy as PM Modi is giving credit to the party and the NDA for this win. Senior party loyalists are also happy as their voices could be heard now. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may also have a reason to smile as the BJP lost 29 Lok Sabha seats compared to 2019 as he had no important role in the selection of candidates. The Congress is happy that it made a comeback and Rahul Gandhi has proved his mettle. The BJP's allies are happy that the BJP may follow the “Coalition Dharma” now. Those Opposition leaders including Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal languishing in jail, hope to get “divine justice.” Several regional parties like the Akali Dal in Punjab who were dumped by the BJP, have reasons to smile as the saffron failed to win any seat. The same goes for the JJP in Haryana and in a couple of other states too. In Maharashtra too everyone has a reason to smile. Finally; the EVM has won a long drawn battle putting all kinds of allegations to rest.