by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Numbers matter as Challenges mount

It is now broadly conceded by the Opposition parties that the BJP is emerging as the single-largest party in the 18^th Lok Sabha. As the polling in the longest and most strenuous ever parliamentary elections is coming to an end, the debate has been boiled down to numbers the ruling party may get on June 4. The INDI Alliance's  wishful thinkers may say that the BJP can be brought down to 220 LS seats and the NDA will be forced to choose a new leader in place of PM Narendra Modi. But there is no dearth of such thinkers who are predicting a landslide for the BJP touching 350 seats mark. The truth could be somewhere in between tilting towards the BJP because of a variety of reasons emerged during unending TV debates 24X7. There are many experts who believe that the BJP's bottom is in the range of 250-260 seats while an upper limit could touch 300 seats mark and in all likelihood, Modi will lead the NDA pack with a slander margin. More than the numbers game, the eyes are also set on the victory margins of the BJP candidates in these elections. Some of these candidates had been winning LS polls in the past with a margin as high as more than five lakh votes in many constituencies. Nearly 200 BJP candidates had a victory margin of above one lakh votes in 2019. If the margin of victory falls substantially for the BJP candidates, Modi baiters may cheer saying he is no more invincible. In the event of BJP retaining huge victory margins for its candidates, the country may see the emergence of a tougher Modi 3.0 term and the journey will move on. 

Modi's Task cut out

Prime Minister Modi seems desperate to implement his agenda immediately after June 4 and is giving final touches to the list of his new Council of Ministers. He is planning to take oath early around June 10 and give a clear road map to them. In many of his interviews he disclosed that he issued a sermon to all his ministers to prepare a plan of what could be done during the first 100 days. Separately, he formed 10 Groups of Secretaries, representing various sectors, to prepare a list of decisions to be implemented within the next 100 days. Among the key ministries involved in these deliberations are Agriculture, Finance, External Affairs, Defence and others. Inputs from different ministers and secretaries are being collated in the Prime Minister's Office to shape internal and external agendas of the government. Modi has a task cut out beginning with notifying four Labour Codes pending for almost a year. The notification will help the workers on the one hand in terms of wages. But they will also face a new “hire & fire” regime as well. 

His another pet project, One nation one poll, is set to be brought before the new Parliament along with the initiation of Delimitation process to enhance Lok Sabha seats taking the strength to 700 plus MPs. It has been hanging fire for a long time. Modi is also to set up a Demographic Commission for senior citizens. A plan has already been announced to give Rs 7 lakh free health insurance cover to all above the age of 70 years.

Why US may mend fences on Nijjar

The USA and Canada may also mend fences in the Nijjar case if Modi gets a third term in a row with a comfortable majority. It is believed that the US & most of the European countries are largely  business-like and economy driven. An indication of change emerged when an American political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer, came out with his perception in favour of Modi at the fag end of the poll. He said "Countries want to get closer to it as India increasingly has a global strategy-with the global South, with the West, not quite with China though.”  Earlier, reports from western media were not painting such a picture. The US MNCs are eagerly waiting to bring in mullahs once the poll process is over. Modi is contemplating charting out on a first foreign trip to Italy on June 15-16 to meet global leaders at the G7 Summit. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, invited India to attend the Summit. There are other international conferences in the coming months. The PM or the External Affairs Minister is also to attend the Ukraine peace conference to be held on June 15-16 in Lucerne, Switzerland, where G-7 leaders are expected to travel from Italy. The External Affairs Minister is also expected to travel to the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod for the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting on June 10-11. Sources said a final response on all these invitations could only be expected after the results are announced.

Friend or a Foe!

The Haryana Police have stationed its teams in Jharkhand and West Bengal to counter cybercrime, as these states are identified as primary sources of cyber fraud calls. Multiple teams have been deployed to identify gang members who dupe people from Haryana, resulting in a large number of arrests in the recent past. This has resulted in the reduction of cyber frauds. In a bid to counter the menace of cybercrime, Haryana Police have stationed their teams in Jharkhand and West Bengal. Interestingly, the BJP is in power in Haryana while Jharkhand and West Bengal governments are part of the INDI alliance. With cyber crimes rising rapidly, state governments are chalking out their own strategies. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Low polling continues though gap narrowing  

BJP confident of winning 3^rd time,  INDI Alliance sees Modi wave gone with the wind 

Urban voting down upto 12% in Mathura 

With the Lok Sabha polls coming to an end in a week's time, political analysts are keeping their fingers crossed as polling continues to be low in all  six phases since April 19. The 7th phase will culminate on June 1.  Although Exit polls on 1st June should provide some clarity on the likely outcome, top NDA leaders assert Modi's return for third time in a row while the INDIA bloc is confident of walking away with stunning numbers on June 4.

The task of experts to predict  numbers has become difficult as polling has been low in 2024 compared to high turnout in 2014 Lok Sabha polls (67% plus) and 68.6% in 2019 ensuring Modi's second term. Many feel that low polling may be due to voters' apathy, waning Modi wave, unprecedented heat wave across the country and other reasons.

The heartening sign for the ruling dispensation is that voter turnout increased to 63.4% in the 6^th phase surpassing the average polling of 62.2% in earlier five phases. 

Another worrying sign is that in majority of the urban constituencies; be it Chennai, Lucknow, Gandhinagar, Mumbai North, Jaipur, Guwahati, Jabalpur, Mathura, NCT of Delhi and other towns are lower by 2% to 12%. If Mathura saw a fall in voting % as high as 12% compared to 2019, voting was 61.08% in 2019 in favour of Hema Malini compared to 49.41% in 2024. In Delhi, the average fall was 2%.

The Prime Minister went out of his way and gave as many as 71 one-to-one interviews to TV channels, print, digital and social media to prop up voters to prop up numbers. Interestingly, the BJP's top leadership has now indicated that it will be too happy to retain its 2019 tally of 303 and not 370 as claimed before the poll process started.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

No backseat driving

Finally, the cat is out of the bag. The continuous whispering campaign in the corridors of power going on for months that something is wrong somewhere between the BJP and its ideological mentor, the RSS, has been put to rest. It all began when a powerful BJP general secretary (Organization) B L Santosh vanished from the media glare for the past few months. Normally, Santosh, a full time RSS pracharak, deputed to look after BJP's organizational affairs, was always seated on the dais whenever PM Modi, BJP Chief JP Nadda & Home Minister Amit Shah held any function at the party's headquarters. But lately, he was conspicuous by his absence and remained invisible leading to whispers in the 'Parivar' that something is amiss. It emerged that the BJP leadership was not giving adequate attention to him and not accepting any of his recommendations particularly after Karnataka's debacle in the Assembly polls. It had a cascading effect as full-time RSS pracharaks deputed to the BJP and not calling the shots anymore. The RSS pracharaks in the BJP are doing the task assigned to them rather vice-versa. The BJP does not aspire to be the “party with a difference” but become a “party of relevance” at the national level. It is first time that the BJP has footprints across India. The RSS will continue to be its ideological mentor but will not be deciding its day-to-today activities. The last word on this role reversal has yet to be written.

Wooing A new segment  

It was quite surprising that Prime Minister Modi took upon himself to express confidence that the stock market would experience a robust surge following the announcement of election results on June 4. It is quite unusual that the PM said so in a TV interview on May 19 in the midst of the Lok Sabha polls. It was more surprising as Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said on May 13 that the stock market will “shoot up” after June 4 claiming the BJP and its allies will come to power in huge majority and that the NDA alliance will cross the 400-plus seats mark. Amit Shah even went to the extent of advising the people to "Buy Before June 4" to reap the harvest at a time when the markets were making huge corrections. A close confidante of powers that be said that neither the PM and nor the HM do or say anything without a reason. It was explained that the BJP is nurturing a very important constituency of voters by making such predictions. There are more than eight crore retail investors in the share market who were worried about their investments if the BJP did not win at the hustings. These new investors have come to the share market after 2015 as PM Modi's leadership has given them enough confidence that India will hit a jackpot. These eight crore investors were worried over the falling markets and the BJP leadership wanted to calm them down. Secondly, these eight crore investors may vote for the BJP & Modi to ensure that investments give good returns.

Keeping track!

The Modi dispensation is keeping a hawk's eye on the country's 900-odd news channels dishing out news & views 24X7. A special floor has been dedicated to monitor these news channels round the clock in all regional, English and national languages. The monitors are deputed in three shifts to closely watch every piece of news & views are beamed. Apart from the Information & Broadcasting Ministry, the PMO also gets a report regularly and corrective steps are taken as may be desired. This system exited during the earlier regimes too but it was poor. Now a battery of around 2400 monitors keeps an eye on what's going on 24X7. Similarly, radio and newspapers are also being monitored by separate teams and daily reports are part of the drill. The real time monitoring is helping the ruling dispensation immensely in getting fastest  feedback and changing strategy accordingly.

Chouhan has built bridges too

Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is BJP's new star campaigner who has built bridges with the party leadership. He has made an impact wherever he is sent by the central leadership for campaigning. Since he belongs to the OBC community, the BJP is finding him useful to woo them. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is another most sought after campaigner and has pan-India appeal particularly among the members of the Rajput community. But the outreach of Chouhan is larger due to the presence of nearly 55% plus OBCs in the country.  Chouhan was put into the operation after low voter turnout was witnessed in the first phase of the general election. He was sidelined and sulking though he was party's candidate from the Vidisha Lok Sabha seat. Chouhan wanted to contest from the Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency to demolish senior Congress leader Kamal Nath’s stronghold for more than four decades. However, the party denied him the opportunity to emerge as a possible giant killer. But things have changed for the better and he is in demand more than many national leaders. The Gods may finally smile for Chouhan.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Battle ground shifts to Delhi 4 neighbouring states

Modi, Rahul to campaign on Saturday

35 Lok Sabha seats at stake

Come Saturday and Delhi will witness two mega road shows and rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress senior leader Rahul Gandhi. If Modi will be addressing his first rally in Ghonda in North East Delhi where sitting BJP MP Manoj Tiwari is in fray, Rahul Gandhi will hold a road show in Chandni Chowk. A battery of BJP leaders including Union Home Minister Amit Shah will campaign for BJP candidate Praveen Khandelwal.

Rahul Gandhi will hold a rally for Congress candidate Kanhaiya Kumar who is facing a stiff challenge. It is likely that AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal may hold a rally for Kanhaiya Kumar.

Modi will return again on May 22 to address a rally in West Delhi's Dwarka to campaign for Kamaljeet Sahrawat who replaced sitting BJP MP Parvesh Varma. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will also be  campaigning in Delhi.

The Congress is contesting three seats here while AAP is contesting four in alliance. But no joint campaign strategies have been planned so far by the two parties.

Modi, Amit Shah, J P Nadda and Yogi Adityanath will be extensively campaigning in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal & Chandigarh where 35 Lok Sabha seats are at stake. The polls will be held in these states on May 25 and June 1.

Since BJP is contesting alone all 13 seats in Punjab for the first time, the entire leadership is putting its entire might.

Modi will address three rallies in Amritsar, Jalandhar & Ludhiana on May 22, while Amit Shah will visit Moga, Ludhiana & Patiala. Yogi will also address campaigns in Ludhiana, a vital seat for the BJP. Ravneet Singh Bittoo who quit Congress is a BJP candidate and a grandson of late CM Beant Singh.

The BJP is worried as extremist elements have started raising their heads and the AAP has emerged as a powerful force in the state.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall 

Modi & Rahul: A picture in contrast

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi has adopted an aggressive publicity policy to reach out to the large population, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is a picture in complete contrast. If Modi has been giving long interviews to leading national & regional newspapers and TV channels, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to keep them at bay. If Modi has gone to the extent of giving short bytes and long interviews to TV channel reporters during his road shows in Patna, Varanasi and elsewhere after the third phase of polling to enhance his reach, Rahul Gandhi has kept the media at arm's length so far. If Modi's unprecedented decision to allow free access to reporters to ride his rath and talk to them is an indication of a tough fight ahead, Rahul Gandhi remains unmoved despite pressures from his media department to follow the same course. If Modi invited social media influencers who have large fan-following, at his residence and gave wide publicity to his outreach programs, Rahul Gandhi chose to keep such interactions completely under wraps. It is said that Rahul Gandhi met many Ytubers, social media influencers and other social media persons in 3-4 batches, conditions were applied. Rahul wanted to treat such interactions private and nothing should be reported. Rahul Gandhi has not given a single interview to any newspaper or TV channel so far even as the Lok Sabha polls are nearly coming to an end. Even Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has not given a formal interview to any newspaper except for side bytes during campaigning. The task of giving interviews has been entrusted to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Jairam Ramesh or whosoever is assigned to interact with the media.

The Backroom game begins

In a significant decision, the RSS Sar Karyavah (General Secretary) Dattatreya Hosabole who was elected to the post again for three years last month, has been posted to New Delhi. Hosabole who hails from Karnataka and stationed at Lucknow earlier, has been posted here. Hosabole will continue to hold the post until 2027. The second most powerful leader in the RSS hierarchy, Hosabole will play a significant role in the months to come. Though B L Santosh, BJP general secretary (Organisation), is the key functionary to be the bridge between the RSS and the BJP, he has lately been maintaining a low profile after the BJP's debacle in Karnataka Assembly polls. Hosabole will play a crucial role in sorting out any misgivings between the RSS and the BJP leadership on issues. Earlier, it was felt that the RSS had not been happy with some of the decisions taken by the BJP including admission of highly corrupt leaders of other parties into the fold and a couple of other issues. PM Modi's night halt at Nagpur on April 19 was also seen as part of sorting out any issue that may be troubling the RSS. It transpires that the entire RSS machinery is working whole-heartedly to ensure BJP's win at the hustings. As the election results will be out on June 4, the consultation process with the BJP's mother organisation will also increase in the government formation. Therefore, Hosabole's posting (Pravas) is considered significant.

Wheels within wheels

Telangana's Congress Chief Minister has turned out to be an astute politician whose maneuvering capabilities have surprised even the top BJP leadership. The Congress leadership was also taken aback as reports poured in that Reddy helped the TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh during the just concluded Lok Sabha & Assembly  polls on May 13. It transpires that Revanth Reddy was extremely upset with the YSRCP leader and Andhra Chief Minister, JaganMohan Reddy for joining hands with his Telangana counterpart BRS leader K Chandrashekhar Rao. The reason for YSRCP-BRS bonhomie was that JaganMohan Reddy wanted KCR to harass businessmen belonging to the Khama community residing in Hyderabad. The rich Khamma community has been helping Chandrababu Naidu who is also a powerful leader of their community. Revanth Reddy argued with his party high command that he helped Naidu to demolish YSRCP as it was an off-shoot of the Congress. This will ultimately help Y S Sharmila, Andhra PCC Chief to demolish JaganMohan Reddy's  political hegemony in the state. Secondly, Revanth Reddy wanted a friendly government in the neighbourhood. Killing two birds with one stone!!!

Yogi's in political crossfire

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath came in between political crossfire recently when Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said that Modi will not remain Prime Minister after he attains the age of 75 years in September 2025. Kejriwal also predicted that Yogi Adityanath will not remain UP CM if the BJP wins Lok Sabha elections and will be brought to Delhi. Union Home Minister Amit Shah asserted at a specially held press conference saying, “The BJP's constitution does not have any provision to retire workers who attain 75 years of age.” However, he remained silent on Kejri's comment on Yogi Adityanath. Maybe, he left it to the PM's discretion to respond. But Modi went out of his way and showered praises on Yogi during coupole of rallies and in an interview on May 14 saying, “The state has seen development under Yogi's leadership. The people of UP cannot accept 'parivarvaad' (dynasty politics). They have seen an alternate model which has changed the lives of the people, and the difference has been visible under the governance of Yogi Adityanath.”

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Nitish Cooking Chirang's Goose !

It is now emerging that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is giving a return gift to Chirag Paswan in the Lok Sabha polls what he did to him in 2020 Assembly polls. Chirag Paswan's LKP (Rm Vilas) is contesting five out of 40 Lok Sabha seats and Nitish Kumar is leaving no stone unturned to ensure their defeat. The BJP and JD(U) have also abandoned joint campaigning after a couple of weeks for all practical purposes. The JD(U) is upset as the BJP leadership suddenly changed its campaign pitch and started talking openly against giving reservation to backwards in the Muslim community. This has led to a large number of Muslims going to the INDI Bloc weakening Nitish Kumar. Secondly, Nitish also wants to settle scores with Chirag Paswan and give him back the same coin. The Janata Dal (U) contested 115 Assembly seats in alliance with the BJP and ended up as a poor third with 43 seats. The BJP set a record by winning 74 in a house of 243 seats. The RJD was the single largest party with 75 seats. The worst performance of the JD (U) was because Chirag Paswan quit NDA and fielded 80 candidates in such a way to ensure Nitish loses badly. A sulking Nitish Kumar parted ways with the BJP to join the INDI Alliance to become its national convener. The BJP decided to go it alone and contest all 40 Lok Sabha seats in alliance with Chirag Paswan as it did in Punjab. But Nitish lost the plot and sent a message to the BJP leadership and the party hugged the “Paltu Ram” again. The rank & file was against it but leadership decided to go with him and “swallowed poison”. With Nitish Kumar back to playing games, the BJP is sitting with fingers crossed and staring at losses in Bihar.

Priyanka Gandhi Emerges from the Shadows

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was virtually in political oblivion until a few months ago and had left for the USA on a private visit as no work had been given to her. Though she is a general secretary of the AICC, she had no role while brother Rahul Gandhi was on the 67-day long Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. There was no response when Congressmen from Telangana, Rae Bareli and a couple of other places clamoured for Priyanka Gandhi must be fielded from their areas. But there was silence in the grave. It was only in April end that Rahul Gandhi felt that Priyanka should contest from Rae Bareli as he was happy with his Wayanad seat in Kerala. But it was too late in the day and Rahul had to pitch in due to pressure from AICC Chief Kharge and others. Priyanka's fortunes changed and she is now on top of the world as the party's star campaigner. She is getting huge traction wherever she is going and turns emotional, reminding the crowds of sacrifices made by her father and Mrs Indira Gandhi. She has rarely tripped in her speeches as she keeps written notes and is able to connect with the audience.

In contrast, the Congress Party's defecto chief is the darling of the social media filled with jokes produced by the Modi-mill factories. But Priyanka Gandhi hasn't given a chance to poke fun at her. Rahul rarely smiles while Priyanka Gandhi is always a picture perfect. Her decision to camp for the next 18 days at Amethi may give sleepless nights to Union Minister Smriti Irani. The Congress' K L Sharma may look a light-weight candidate. But he will give a run for money to Irani as he has been a grass-root worker for 40 years and knows every nook & corner of the constituency. Rahul Gandhi can also breathe easy in Rae Bareli. But Priyanka Gandhi has arrived in 2024 and if Rahul Gandhi wins Rae Bareli, she can contest from Wayanad to enter Lok Sabha.

New PM Enclave Ready, Occupant after June 4

The Prime Minister’s new enclave is ready before a deadline and awaiting the arrival of its occupant. Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have shifted to the new building near the Rashtrapati Bhawan at the Dara Shikoh Marg, he opted to stay put at the Lok Kalyan Marg residence due to reasons of propriety. He has chosen to wait for the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls on June 4. His immediate neighbor is Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar who has already shifted to the palatial bungalow spread over 15 acres.

The Rs 467 crores PM's enclave will have an underground tunnel to connect the PMO, Parliament House, new executive complex, Vice President's House etc. The tunnel is meant to avoid traffic jams due to security. If sources are to be believed, the new building will have a safety network capable of handling all kinds of attacks from outside. The complex's total built-up area is 2,26,203 sq. feet and of this the PM’s residence will be spread out over an area of 36,328 sq. ft. The PM's enclave is part of the Central Vista revamp project and will comprise  the enclaves of VP and PM, Special Protection Group accommodation and the central conference centre.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

NDA allies are worrying the BJP's 400 paar.... wish

The BJP's 40-odd allies are turning out to be its bane in some of the states who are contesting around 100 seats in 2024 polls. The allies are contesting around 100 seats and unable to perform, forcing the BJP to put its own “Abki Baar 400 Paar” slogan on the back-burner.

The BJP's allies in Bihar contesting 23 out of 40 seats are unable to campaign jointly as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has not forgiven Chirag Paswan, president LJP (Ram Vilas) for his role in the 2020 Assembly polls. Chirag is contesting five seats. The other two allies, RLM and HAM are also facing a challenge and JD (U) may not win 16 seats it is contesting.

In Karnataka, Janata Dal (S) of H D Deve Gowda has become a liability for BJP after the sex scandal broke out and may not win 25 seats it won in 2019.

The most worrying state is Maharashtra where no pollster is giving 41 seats to the NDA it won in 2019 out of 48. It is said that Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) may not deliver out of 19-odd seats it is contesting though BJP may do well.

In UP, the BJP has given six seats to its allies (Apna Dal-2, RLD -2, SBSP-1 & Nishad-1) and hopes to improve its 2019 tally of 64 seats.

Andhra Pradesh is perhaps the only state where the BJP will do well and may win a majority of 25 Lok Sabha seats as alliance partners are working in tandem. The BJP is contesting six seats and doing well. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the BJP is hoping to open its account with the help of eight smaller parties there.

In Jharkhand, like in 2019, the party has given one seat to ally AJSU and looks comfortable and same goes for North East as well where it has nearly 7-8 allies.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

12 Union Ministers denied Lok Sabha ticket by BJP

Som Prakash 12th Minister to miss the bus, wife given Hoshiarpur seat

Fate of 11 Union Ministers depends on Lok Sabha results

With most candidates announced by the BJP barring a handful of them in a few states, the number of Union Ministers who have been denied the Lok Sabha tickets has gone up to 12.

It emerged that Union Minister of state Commerce & Industry Som Prakash became the 12^th leader to be denied Lok Sabha ticket. He was a sitting Lok Sabha MP from Punjab's Hoshiarpur constituency.

Som Parkash, an IAS officer from the 1988 batch, first unsuccessfully contested the 2009 Lok Sabha polls from Hoshiarpur. Later, he became MLA of Phagwara in 2017, but he resigned in 2019 after being elected as Hoshiarpur MP. As a minister of state with the industry and commerce portfolios, he was involved in all talks between farmers during the farmers’ agitation.

However, his wife Anita Som Parkash has been given a ticket. The reason given was that her husband is not keeping a good health and had turned 75 years of age.

Earlier, the list of those denied Rajya Sabha seat or Lok Sabha ticket contained 11 names including Gen. V K Singh (Ghaziabad), Darshana Jardosh (Surat), Meenakshi Lekhi (new Delhi), Pratima Bhumik (Tripura West), Rajkumar Ranjan Singh (Inner Manipur), John Barla (Alipurduar, West Bengal), M Manjapara (Surendranagar, Gujarat), Bishweswar Tudu (Mayurbhanj, Odisha), Rameshwar Teli (Dibrugarh, Assam), A Narayanswamy (Chitradurga, Karnataka) and Ashwini Choubey(Buxar, Bihar). With Som Prakash missing the bus, the number rose to 12.

However, eleven Union Ministers have been given Lok Sabha tickets and their fate will depend on the outcome of Lok Sabha polls. They are; Piyush Goyal (Mumbai North), Jyotiraditya Scindia, (Guna), Dharmendra Pradhan (Sambalpur), V Murlidharan (Attingal), Bhupendra Yadav (Alwar, Rajasthan), Purushottam Rupala Rajkot), Mansukh Mandaviya, Rajeev Chandra Shekhar, Sarbanand Sonowal, and L Murugan (Nilgiri) and Narayan Rane (Ratnagiri).

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

A Night Halt and Hush-Hush meet at Nagpur

PM Modi's reportedly secret meeting with the top RSS leadership at Nagpur continues to baffle political observers.

In an unusual development, the PM decided to stay overnight at the Nagpur Raj Bhawan on April 19 after addressing a rally at Wardha. No engagements were listed in his schedule until next morning at 11 am where he was to address a meeting at Amaravati. He reached the Raj Bhawan around 6.30 pm and held a long meeting with the top leadership of the RSS. One report suggests that he drove down to the RSS headquarters to meet RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat who was also in town to cast his vote while another report says the RSS leaders came to the Raj Bhawan over dinner for a free-wheeling discussion with Modi.

The PM rarely stays overnight anywhere during campaigns and prefers to return to Delhi. But this time, he chose to stay put overnight amidst reports of lack of adequate communication. The RSS had alerted the BJP well in advance that people are disenchanted and it could slip to 250 seats in the 2024 polls. The RSS has been dismayed as this was the first time it did not play an important role in the process of selection of candidates. The end result was that its workers were unenthusiastic.

When reports poured in, the damage control began which resulted in this high-level meeting at Nagpur. It is said that the RSS is now working hard to ensure BJP's win which can be seen in improved voting percentage in eight of the 12 states in the second phase.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

BJP Flogging A Tested Horse

The BJP's core committee comprising its top leadership decided to continue their  tirade against the Muslims who are being given reservations and would have a stake in the wealth of others during the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP's poll strategists have given the feedback to the leadership that the issue of Muslims enjoying the fruits of reservation and wealth has gained traction among the people. The PM was first to raise the issue at his rally in Banswara in Rajasthan in the third week of April where he had said that their wealth would be distributed to the Muslims and infiltrators if the Congress came to power. He also said that Muslims are being given the fruits of reservations as enjoyed by the Scs, Sts and OBCs in some of the states.

The PM chose to raise the issue as Banswara comprised 70% tribal Bhil community. Later, other top BJP leaders including Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, J P Nadda, Giriraj Singh picked up the thread and raised the Muslims quota enjoyed in several states. In Karnataka, for example, Muslims had a 4% sub-quota within the 32% OBC quota. Kerala has an 8% Muslim quota within the 30% OBC quota and Tamil Nadu and Bihar, have Muslim caste groups in their OBC quota.

It is said that the Muslim quota issue was raised after low polling in the first phase on April 19 and it paid rich dividends. In the second phase, the polling picked up and an enthused Prime Minister said in Telangana on May 1, “As long as Modi is alive, won't let Dalit, Adivasi, OBC reservations go to Muslims.”

Insiders in the party say that poll pitch is being changed as BJP's vote bank is enthused. This was contrary to his initial hesitancy in a couple of TV interviews given between April 20-30. He told the interviewers that he had used the word “infiltrators”. But in the Telangana rally, he named them not once but several times. The BJP leadership has been worried after it received feedback from Rajasthan, Bihar, Maharashtra and UP that its vote bank is unenthusiastic. Thus, the BJP went back to flogging a tested horse to reap the harvest.

Yogi's Rajput worry

The low polling in many states including UP is not merely because of unhappiness among the BJP-RSS workers but due to a variety of other reasons. The Rajput community was also up in arms as fever number of tickets were given to the community. The Rajputs were denied tickets not only in UP but in Rajasthan as well. Many saw this as a design to cut the growing clout of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and want his wings to be clipped as he is the second most sought after leader during the campaign after Modi. The Centre is virtually running the show in Lucknow as key appointments in the bureaucracy are made by it. A majority of ministers in the UP Cabinet are picked up by the high command and given key ministries. Yet, Yogi's clout continues to grow as he works 24X7 without a family and believes in delivery. When Rajput got angry and decided to vote against the BJP, Yogi tried hard to mollify them saying any adverse outcome of Lok Sabha results in UP will weaken his position. Yogi belongs to the Rajput community. In the meanwhile, Yogi's visit to Nagpur to campaign for BJP's stalwart and Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari last month has raised many eyebrows. Gadkari is reported to have conveyed to the Prime Minister well in advance that he should concentrate on those constituencies in Maharashtra where extra efforts are needed as his position is comfortable in Nagpur. But Yogi's rally was held and later he visited Gadkari's residence as well. 

Rising graph of J&K Governor

It is almost clear that Lieutenant Governor of J&K Manoj Sinha will be back in Delhi sooner than expected. After he lost his Ghazipur Lok Sabha seat in 2019 polls, Sinha missed a berth in the Union Cabinet. Instead, he was sent as LG, J&K where he showed his mettle in handling a highly sensitive state to restore peace. The J&K under the Modi dispensation has been fighting fit to find a competent person since 2014 as no experiment succeeded. Finally, after abrogation of Article 370, bureaucrat G C Murmu was sent as LG in 2019 who failed to deliver and replaced by Manoj Sinha in less than a year in 2020. It is said that after the Lok Sabha polls, efforts will be made to hold the Assembly polls soon. Sinha may make a comeback either as a Lok Sabha candidate or brought to the Rajya Sabha sooner than expected. This stems from the fact that Paras Nath Rai, a 70 year-old school teacher and a die-hard supporter of Sinha has been given a Lok Sabha ticket by the BJP high command. It is said that Rai will quit his seat once Sinha is brought back to the Centre. Manoj Sinha's graph has risen many fold as he has been extremely successful during his nearly four year stay in office. It may also be mentioned here that Sinha had missed the bus as UP Chief Minister in 2017 narrowly to Yogi. It may be a windfall gain for Sinha this time.