by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

No Gandhi VS Gandhi contest in Rae Bareli

Varun Gandhi writes to BJP Chief, declines to contest

The plans of BJP leadership to make a Gandhi vs Gandhi contest in Rae Bareli went for a toss as three term party MP Varun Gandhi from UP declined to enter the fray.

It is learnt that BJP president J P Nadda reported to have asked Varun Gandhi to contest from Rae Bareli against the Congress' likely candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The BJP is eyeing to win the seat after it was vacated by UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi in 2024 and opted the Rajya Sabha route.

Nadda reported to have telephoned Varun Gandhi around ten days ago and urged Varun Gandhi to consider contesting from Rae Bareli. Varun Gandhi has been BJP MP for three terms but had been denied a ticket from Pilibhit this time and gave it to his mother Maneka Gandhi.

Varun Gandhi was sulking for being denied the ticket from Pilibhit. But the BJP leadership had other plans as it had been toying with the idea of fielding a Gandhi from Rae Bareli. The party leadership conducted many internal surveys to pick the suitable candidate including Uma Bharti, Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Patel, Keshav Prasad Mourya, Nupur Sharma and a couple of others. Finally, the party zeroed on Varun Gandhi who can tilt the election in its favour.

Accordingly, Nadda contacted Varun Gandhi with the offer. Varun Gandhi was given adequate time to consider the offer as the last date of filing nomination papers for Amethi/Rae Bareli is May 3. However, Varun Gandhi is reported to have written a letter to Nadda yesterday declining to contest against Priyanka Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi.

When contacted, Varun Gandhi told Lokmat today, “Whatever discussions on the issue took place between me and the top leadership of the party are between me and them.” When pressed further, Varun Gandhi confirmed saying, “The communications cannot be discussed in public domain.”

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly On the Wall

The Rise and fall (?) of AAP

If you thought Rahul Gandhi or the Congress party is the principal target of the BJP during the on-going Lok Sabha campaign, you may perhaps be under the wrong impression. No doubt, the Prime Minister has been continuously targeting the “Shahzada” and other members of the Gandhi family in his rallies. But none of the senior Congress leaders has either been put behind bars or targeted personally during the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, the BJP leaders  consider Rahul Gandhi an asset who provides fodder through his innocuous comments or slip of a tongue. If sources close to the ruling dispensation are any indication, the real target is Aam Aadmi Party and its convener Arvind Kejriwal. Reasons are many, the foremost being that no political leader except Kejriwal has earned the distinction of defeating the BJP in the Delhi Assembly polls not once but thrice. This was despite the fact that PM Modi had addressed rallies after rallies in Delhi to defeat Kejriwal in 2015 & 2020. No doubt, Kejriwal also tried to be bigger than his boots when he contested as many as 432 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 polls and could win four from Punjab. In 2019, he became wiser and fielded 35 candidates only. Bhagwant Singh Mann was the lone MP to represent Punjab in Lok Sabha. This election, he fielded 22 candidates and entered into an alliance with Congress in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat etc. Of these 22, AAP is contesting 13 seats in Punjab alone. Yet the AAP's anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal is languishing in jail. The case is rare as this is the first time that a sitting Chief Minister is in jail on corruption charges in the midst of Lok Sabha polls. Will it help the BJP politically and decimate the AAP? The result of this unprecedented act will be out only on June 4.

Nitish on the Radar too

Normally, no one speaks for more than 5 minutes at a rally where Prime Minister Modi is the chief guest. But Nitish Kumar was full of steam and spoke for more than 15-minutes, a rare scene. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar gave signs of losing his mental balance and turned out to be quite an embarrassment. Nitish went to the extent of saying that the NDA will cross 4000 seats. As if this was not enough, Nitish Kumar came back to his seat and touched Modi's feet triggering a political storm.

If the Opposition leaders tried to portray it as Nitish bowing down to Modi, it also raised concerns about the CM's health amidst rumours that he is suffering from dementia. Nitish Kumar has been doing several such acts causing huge embarrassment to the party and workers. Since then, the PM has not addressed any meeting with Nitish Kumar though Modi went on to address rallies at Gaya and Purnea as well. Gaya is being contested by Jeeten Ram Manjhi while Santosh Kushwaha is contesting from Purnea. Both are BJP's allies in the NDA. It has been also decided that Nitish Kumar will have to follow a written script and speak within the given time frame. If insiders in the BJP are to be believed, Nitish Kumar is on the radar. The BJP would like to install its own Chief Minister in the key North Indian state. It has severed ties with Akalis in Punjab and Bihar is next in line. What a fall of “personally honest and politically dishonest leader” said a JD (U) leader.

Another Worrisome Slide

Mayawati was a school teacher and had gone to BJP leader late Madanlal Khurana seeking a ticket to contest as a corporator. She failed and as luck would have it, she got in touch with Kanshi Ram, BSP founder who wanted a Dalit to be the Prime Minister of India. He groomed her and made her UP Chief Minister after clinching an alliance with the Samajwadi Party in 1995. She never looked back and stitched alliances with the BJP, Congress or whosoever came her way to stay in power. The turning point came when she became the Chief Minister on the strength of her own party in 2007. The BSP became a pan-India party winning 21 Lok Sabha seats with 6.17% votes in 2009. And then began the slide as it drew a blank in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. She had to join hands with SP again in 2019 and got 10 seats and vote share in UP was 19%. But in the Assembly polls in 2022, vote share fell to as low as 12%.

The 2024 Lok Sabha polls may witness further erosion . Ever since Modi emerged on the scene, there has been a shift of Dalit voters towards the BJP. The Enforcement Directorate's case of money laundering forced her to play second fiddle to the ruling party at the Centre. Mayawati has been left high & dry with no capacity to win a Rajya Sabha seat from any of the states nor can guarantee a winning Lok Sabha seat either.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

A Terror state in Terror

The killing of Amir Sarfaraz, a Lashkar-e-Taiba operative, in Lahore, at his residence by two motorbike born gunmen, has created shock waves in Pakistan. Sarfaraz was acquitted in the 2013 murder of India's Sarabjit Singh who was a death-row prisoner, on charges of espionage. Though Sarfaraz had been provided with a security cover after several LeT operatives had been gunned down in Pakistan in the recent past. Yet, he could not escape death forcing Pakistan's Interior Minister to allege India's hidden hand. This is the 22^nd killing of terrorists belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba and other such outfits who did targeted killings in India and having a good time in Pakistan. But not anymore.

The world woke up only when alleged Khalistani terrorist H S Nijjar was killed in Canada and the Canadian PM blamed India but gave no proof. Later, the US also joined the issue saying that India should cooperate in the on-going probe. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said such killings are contrary to India's policy. But it has been noticed that India's political response towards terrorists and those providing shelter had been very tough. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh declared recently, “Hum Ghar Mein Ghus Kar Marenge” (We will kill rogue elements in their nests). He was responding to a question that terrorists kill and hide in Pakistan.

Goes without saying that PM Modi has toughened India policy in fight against terrorism and India's external espionage agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has been given unbridled power. The RAW, set up by Indira Gandhi in 1968 and played a key role in creating Bangladesh in 1971, was made defunct by her successor Morarji Desai in 1977. The RAW suffered again when I K Gujral became Prime Minister for a brief stint when he wound up its operations in Pakistan. The RAW is back in business in a big way and terrorists hiding in Pakistan are a worried lot. Modi may reap the harvest if the issue snowballs in the days to come during the elections.

Why ED, CBI silent on Vadra

Before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) was going against the Damaaji full gun blazing in a Haryana land deal case. Vadra, husband of Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, had been grilled by the ED several times and had even sought cancellation of anticipatory bail and sought his custody as he was not cooperating in the investigation. The ED had also claimed to have impeccable evidence of his ill-gotten property in London.

The allegations of land deals and other corruption cases were flying thick & high involving the Gandhi family in the 2014 election campaign that saw its continuation in 2019 polls as well. A prominent TV channel cited Vadra's links with the controversial arms dealer Sanjay Bhandari and how deals were discussed through emails. Five years down the line, there is no trace of cases against Robert Vadra. The BJP-led Haryana government closed the land deal case against Vadra. The London property also vanished into thin air. There is complete silence on corruption cases against Priyanka Gandhi Vadra or the other members of the Gandhi family except for the National Herald case.

There are reports that the country's leading real estate group made massive donations through Electoral Bonds to the ruling dispensation during the period. Whether these donations were linked to the closure of cases or not could be anybody's guess. But a smiling Vadra is wanting a Lok Sabha seat as he had faced huge harassment for more than a decade. The Gandhis are maintaining a stony silence on the issue and the party leaders are scared to even talk on the issue in these tough times and maintaining a studied silence. The Amethi & RaeBareli seats are awaiting Congress candidates.

Rising Star Revanth Reddy

Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy seems to have drawn a leaf out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's book and is doggedly following him in at least one area i.e. an “Open Door Policy”.  Though the Congress has a comfortable majority in the Assembly, Revanth Reddy wants every influential leader in other parties to join the Congress so that its Lok Sabha tally goes up. He doesn't hesitate to visit the houses of Congress' arch rivals and bring them back into the fold. He is gunning for the BRS and determined to ‘erase’ every mark of his predecessor, K Chandrashekar Rao. He is removing all contents uploaded during KCR’s tenure by the social media channels run by the state information and public relations department as well. However, he doesn't go out of his way to speak against the BJP's central leadership particularly PM Modi. Rather, he called Modi "Bade Bhai" (Elder Brother). Being an astute political leader who had been with the ABVP during his student days, he knows that Centre's help is necessary for the development of the state. He is also keeping the party high command happy and since assuming office, he has visited Delhi at least 18 times. He doesn't mince words and speaks fluent Hindi and establishes a connection with the audience. His rising graph has made many in the Congress a worried lot.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

AAP facing biggest crisis

All eyes on SC on April 15 about Kejriwal's bail plea  

AAP's MPs, MLAs a worried lot, No clarity on new leader

All eyes are set on the Supreme Court which is set to hear Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's petition challenging his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on April 15.

In the event of any relief being denied to Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi Party may suffer a body blow to its existence in the midst of Lok Sabha polls. The AAP Lok Sabha candidates in Delhi, Gujarat & Haryana are unable to start campaigning effectively. The party is unable to pick its nominees in Punjab either. If reports are to be believed, as many as 25 AAP MLAs of the 62, are in touch with the BJP and many of its Rajya Sabha Mps are facing the heat. The AAP's leading Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha has been camping in London for his eye treatment for more than a month and there are no early signs of his return. Except for Sanjay Singh and Sandeep Pathak, most of the Mps are looking the other way.

With the ED providing evidence of how ill-gotten money earned through liquor-gate given to AAP candidates in Goa and other leaders to the Delhi High court which rejected Kejriwal's bail plea, the party is facing a crisis of its existence. The ED has conducted at least 20 raids in Delhi and Goa and grilled party treasure N D Gupta and MLA Durgesh Pathak. It is also baffling that AAP's second most senior leader and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann is maintaining a low profile and confining himself to his state. No one has a clue whether Kejriwal's wife, Sunita Kejriwal will take the reins of the party or the government or both or someone else will don the mantle. It is highly unlikely that Kejriwal will stay as Chief Minister even after bail is denied to him by the SC.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Long wait for Rahul Darshan, 700 in queue

Congress Party's senior leader Rahul Gandhi may be ridiculed by the BJP day-in and day-out and the saffron party's social media army may be trolling him for everything that comes its way. But Rahul Gandhi continues to be in high demand in his own party if those managing his political affairs and office are to be believed. It is said that party's Lok Sabha candidates want Rahul Gandhi to campaign in their constituencies though insiders say the demand of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is equally high as she never trips as is often the case with Rahul Gandhi. Whatever may be the case, Rahul Gandhi is in high demand. An aide of Rahul Gandhi recently flared up when a Congress leader questioned him for not arranging his one minute meeting with the scion of the Gandhi family. The senior leader was from Delhi and had been trying to meet Rahul Gandhi for more than a month without any luck. The aide bluntly told him that more than 700 party leaders are waiting to meet “RG”. But the former Congress president has been extremely busy in campaigning and other critical issues. A clue to Rahul Gandhi's extremely busy scheduled came recently when the Chairman of the Congress media in-charge Jairam Ramesh disclosed in a social media post that Milind Deora had spoken with him over phone and requested about wishing to to speak with Rahul Gandhi over his concerns over Shiv Sena (UBT) laying claim to the South Mumbai Lok Sabha seat. A number of party leaders were surprised that Deora could not directly communicate with Rahul though he was considered very close to him.

BJP's Christians headache

The BJP leadership is facing a humongous problem in many of the Christian dominated Lok Sabha constituencies particularly in Kerala. Though PM Modi has taken several steps as part of his outreach program and had hosted their religious leaders at his residence, the problem persists. The cardinals were unhappy that Pope Francis had not been invited during the past several years ignoring a long standing tradition. Though the government explained that a mutually acceptable time-frame is being worked out after an invitation was sent. The Christians are also unhappy that not a single member of their community has been appointed as Vice Chancellor in any of the 75 central universities. Fortunately, Prakash Javadekar who is incharge of Kerala told them that during his tenure as Education Minister, two VCs of their community were appointed. They are complaining that the National Commission for Minority Educational Institutions (NCMEI) set up to promote education among the minorities, is running with just one member against a stipulated strength of four for years together. The quasi-judicial body grants minority certificates to institutions set up by minorities for promotion of education among them. The commission has had no Christian members for the past eight years. Sahid Akhtar is the lone commission member at present. The Christian community in general and the Catholic Church in particular run thousands of educational institutions. The Catholic Church alone has 50,000 institutions with 6 crore students.

Baffling absence of AAP's Raghav Chadha

A media favourite, charming, polite and a permanent fixture on television news channels, Raghav Chadha has been missing from the scene for more than a month. He went to London with his actress wife Parineeti Chopra ostensibly for an eye surgery though the couple took part in India Forum 2024, hosted at the London School Of Economics and many other events. It is explained that he is undergoing treatment of his eye while his wife was seen landing at the Mumbai airport earlier this month. The grapevine has it that Chadha is delaying his return to India as the ED may name him in an on-going Delhi Jal Board probe. The ED has already filed a chargesheet in the Rs 2 crore bribery case. Though it does not mention Chadha's name. But the ED is planning to file a supplementary chargesheet and may summon him for questioning. Lately, Raghav Chadha is incommunicado and Parineeti Chopra is also keeping the media at bay. Insiders say that Parineeti Chopra's sister Priyanka Chopra who is considered close to the powers that be, may play the role of a peace-maker. A long wait and deadly silence!

The Varun Gandhi riddle

Why did the BJP deny ticket to Varun Gandhi and chose his mother Maneka to contest Lok Sabha polls? This question continues to baffle even those close to the BJP high command. Many say that Varun Gandhi paid the price for his public utterances after he was not inducted into the Modi ministry in 2021. Though a couple of meetings took place between him and BJP chief J P Nadda on the issue. It is said Varun Gandhi was sounded for Minister of State's post but he suggested that he be considered for MoS with an Independent charge so that he can prove his mettle. It may be mentioned that his mother Maneka Gandhi had missed the Cabinet bus during Modi's second term in 2019 itself. Since then, Maneka Gandhi had maintained a studied silence and did whatever party work was assigned to her. But Varun Gandhi being a young fire-brand leader, kept throwing tantrums. It also transpires, though unconfirmed, that Varun Gandhi was asked obliquely if he will be willing to contest against any member of the Gandhi family belonging to the Congress. It is said that Varun looked reluctant though didn't decline. After the ticket was denied to him, Varun Gandhi has been maintaining a studied silence except for sending a heartfelt letter to the people of Pilibhit to say his doors would always be open for them.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Is the BJP getting desperate

The BJP leadership may have set a target of crossing 370 Lok Sabha seats mark for itself and 400 for the NDA. But no independent political observer was willing to accept such a tall order given the prevailing situation on the ground. Even credible pollsters and psephologists were baffled when the Prime Minister, Narwndra Modi said this on February 5 during a debate in the Lok Sabha. No doubt, the BJP had got a shot in its arm when Janata Dal (U) leader Nitish Kumar took a U-turn to re-joined the NDA causing a body blow to the INDIA alliance. Other smaller parties also made a bee-line to join the NDA. Yet it was not enough. The leadership got a jolt when the RSS reported to have shared a confidential country-wide survey it had conducted on the state of the nation. The survey, conducted last year, cautioned the BJP of stress in rural India and rising joblessness in cities forcing many to go back to the villages. No doubt, the Modi government's welfare schemes helped the poor but there was work. If sources close to the RSS are to be believed, it said the BJP may get a wafer-thin majority. It is said that it was only after this report that a multipronged strategy was formulated. An “open-door” policy was adopted and tickets were given to newcomers from other parties and a full-throated campaign against corruption was launched to expose Opposition leaders. An indication of this desperation was witnessed in Odisha where the BJP wanted to bring the ruling BJD in its fold which was already supporting the saffron party.

Double Whammy

The sulking 100 odd-BJP Mps who have been denied tickets by the party, got another rude shock. Though a few of them quit the party for greener pastures elsewhere, the majority of them were cooling their heels at home. The party high command contacted many of them saying that they have a job to do for the party and denial of ticket is not the end of their political career. They were told to work hard for the candidate who has been given the ticket from the same constituency. A detailed plan of their poll duties was shared with them. So much so that they were told to be present on the dais when the Prime Minister, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party president J P Nadda addressed rallies in those constituencies. The BJP's election incharge of the constituency are in touch with them on a regular basis and they are given facilities to contribute for the victory of the party candidate. Interestingly, the BJP's Trimurti (Modi, Shah & Nadda) ensures to give full respect to those denied tickets on the stage and shake hands with them to send a signal to the audience that all is well in the saffron family. Most of the ministers denied tickets have been given specific duties and are actively campaigning for the new faces. A rare feat indeed!

Seats under BJP's Scanner

The BJP leadership has targeted a few Lok Sabha seats to ensure the defeat of Opposition leaders in 2024 polls. In 2019, it had targeted Amethi in UP and Dumka in Jharkhand to ensure the defeat of Rahul Gandhi and Shibu Soren. This time, the BJP leadership has Rae Bareli (UP), Chhindwara (MP), Bengaluru Rural (Karnataka), Baramati (Maharashtra) and Asansol (West Bengal) on its radar. The BJP wants Chhindwara seat in its kitty to ensure the defeat of Kamal Nath's legacy who has friendly relations with PM Modi. This will pave the way for Nakul Nath's entry into the BJP post elections. Similarly, the BJP wants to win Rae Bareli and has not declared its candidate so far waiting for the Congress to name Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to be fielded from the constituency. In Bengaluru Rural, the BJP wants to defeat DK Suresh, brother of deputy Chief Minister D K Shivkumar. In Baramati, the BJP is willing to pump its entire might to defeat Supriya Sule, a daughter of Sharad Pawar and helping Ajit Pawar to the hilt. The BJP leadership wants to snatch Asansol to ensure the defeat of Shatrughan Sinha. There are indications that it may field S S Ahluwalia, known for winning difficult seats. If he won Darjeeling in 16th Lok Sabha, he won Bardhaman Durgapur in 2019.

Nirmala rubs on the wrong side

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may have earned some brownie points by saying that she declined to contest as she doesn’t have the kind of money that is needed to contest the Lok Sabha polls. However, this comment upset many party leaders who felt she had rubbed others on the wrong side. There are many leaders in the BJP who also do not have the kind of money to contest an election. But it's for the party to take a call on this aspect as well. Secondly, there are other ministers as well in the Modi government who had expressed their reluctance to contest for various reasons. Nirmala's comment has put them in an uncomfortable situation too though it may have been an innocuous one.