by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP to contest 445 Lok Sabha seats, 40 allies on board

The BJP is likely to contest around 440-445 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 parliamentary elections. The BJP has announced candidates for the 405 LS seats so far and candidates for some seats in UP, Punjab, Odisha and a couple of other states are yet to be announced. It has announced names of 24 candidates in Maharashtra and at least half a dozen more names may be announced in the next couple of days.

Interestingly, the BJP has entered into alliances with smaller parties in almost all the states to drum up its winning target of 370 seats and 400 for the NDA. The number of allies has touched 40, according to BJP sources. It tried hard to stitch alliances with the BJD in Odisha, JJP in Haryana and Akali Dal in Punjab but the talks failed. On the other hand, the BJP gave up its claim on seats to strengthen the NDA in a few North Eastern states.

Insiders say that PM Modi is sacrificing some of the seats as he wants to bring big reforms in his third term and wants everybody on board in his third term. The BJP, therefore, is welcoming all & sundry from all parties into its fold even at the cost of hurting the sentiments of the party cadre. It has dropped more than 100 sitting Mps including ministers and is experimenting with new faces.

This will be BJP's highest ever tally compared to 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls despite having the 40-odd allies in states. PM Modi was actively involved in bringing N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh to open BJP's account which had drawn a blank in 2019. But in neighbouring Telangana, the BJP is going solo like in many other states. In 2014 the BJP fielded 428 candidates and won 282 seats while in 2019 it fielded 437 candidates and emerged victorious in 303 seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Watch out AAP's rising star Bhagwant Mann

With the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal going behind bars, all eyes are set on the party's Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann. Though no instability is likely to be witnessed in the near future, informed sources say that it won't be an easy ride for Kejriwal's wife to take the reins of Chief Ministerial post or becoming a working Convener of the party. Since Manish Sisodia or Sanjay Singh have been granted any relief in the Liquor policy scam, one will have to watch out if Kejriwal will be lucky one to get out soon. The party is also facing a huge financial crisis making its day-to-day functioning crippled. The fear factor has gripped sympathizers and donors to help the party as probe agencies are keeping a close watch.In the given situation, all eyes are set on Punjab's Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann to arrange funds to its candidates. He is the senior-most leader and figures at number 7 in the Order of Precedence compared to Kejriwal at number 14. Secondly, he has good rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Being the Chief Minister of a border state, the Centre is careful and doesn't rub him on the wrong side. Mann is also careful is choosing his words while criticizing the BJP's top leadership. It is rumoured that the BJP leadership wanted AAP-Congress to not align for the Lok Sabha polls in Punjab. Political analysts may blame the Congress for break up. But it must be noted that Mann had taken a very strident stand on the issue and his writ prevailed.

VP, PM to shift to new residences

Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be shifting to new residential complexes soon. If Dhankhar is likely to shift to a new house in the first week of April, the PM may do it after June 4. The new Vice-President’s Enclave is spread over 15 acres of land and has a build-up area of 20,000 sq. feet. It will have a single-story (ground plus one with a basement) residence, a secretariat building, guest house, sports facility, staff quarters and ancillary buildings. The VP House is part of the Narendra Modi government’s ambitious Central Vista redevelopment project and will have a new Prime Ministerial residence in the vicinity. The new residential complexes are fitted with state-of-the-art-technology and have all security features. 

The construction work, which started in January 2022, has been delayed for over a year after it was awarded to Jharkhand-based Kamladityya Construction Pvt. Ltd. (KCPL) was awarded the project in November 2021. The Rs 214-crore enclave is the third project to be completed as part of the approximately Rs 13,500 crore Central Vista plan. Under the Central Vista redevelopment project, 10 Common Central Secretariat (CCS) buildings are also to be constructed on either side of the Kartavya Path (Rajpath) during Modi's third term.

The Gandhis won't vote for Congress

It may be perhaps for the first time that the three members of the Gandhi family- Sonia, Rahul & Priyanka- won't be able to cast their votes for the party they belong to. Since the New Delhi Lok Sabha constituency has been given to the AAP under the seat-sharing formula, the Gandhis will not be able to cast their votes for the Congress candidate. If they are in town on the day of the voting, they will be voting for their electoral partner candidate belonging to the AAP. The AAP has fielded Somnath Bharti as its candidate for the Lok Sabha polls while the BJP has fielded Bansuri Swaraj, daughter of late Sushma Swaraj.

Baffling silence over Priyanka Gandhi

If the Congress is keeping its cards close to the chest with regard to Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituencies, the BJP has also not named its candidate for the Rae Bareli seat either. It has chosen Smriti Irani as its candidate so far among the 64 candidates announced from UP. The BJP will contest 76 seats out of 80 in the Lok Sabha polls. It is fairly clear that Rahul Gandhi won't contest from Amethi. But there is complete silence over Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's name as well.

The Congress has announced candidates for the nine Lok Sabha seats out of the 17 it will contest in alliance with the Samajwadi Party in UP. But both the seats do not figure in the party's list. It is learnt that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is reluctant to enter the electoral fray from Rae Bareli. If reports emanating from 10 JanPath are an indication, she is extremely unhappy with what's happening in the party. Her services are not being utilized for the past few months and she is cooling her heels at her Sujan Singh Park residence. Efforts are on to persuade her to contest from Rae Bareli. If the BJP targeted Amethi seat in 2019 Lok Sabha, it has kept its powder dry for the Rae Bareli seat this time.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

 

Come elections and Video season begins

Two recent obscene videos allegedly involving two BJP Lok Sabha Mps have taken the national Capital by storm. In the case of Upendra Singh Rawat, the video surfaced on social media after he was fielded as a candidate from Barabanki Lok Sabha seat. Though an FIR against unknown accused was registered as Rawat claimed the video was doctored to tarnish his image, he deemed it fit to withdraw from the contest the very next day. The obscene videos which have not been authenticated so far purportedly featuring him appeared online on 3 March. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had denied a ticket to the then-sitting MP Priyanka Singh Rawat and made Upendra Singh Rawat its candidate. 

While the BJP was struggling to cope with this, another video involving another sitting BJP Lok Sabha MP from Sonepat in Haryana emerged on the social media. The woman involved was wanting a favour and the MP demanded a return favour. In this case also, the FIR was registered and the Police detained two people. The Sonepat MP, Ramesh Kaushik, vehemently denied saying it was a political conspiracy against him. Kaushik had joined the BJP in the Modi wave in 2013 among other senior Congress leaders like Rao Inderjeet, Birender Singh, Kuldeep Bishnoi and got the Lok Sabha ticket in 2014. He was given the Lok Sabha ticket again in 2019 and defeated former Chief Minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda. However, the tickets in Haryana are yet to be announced and there is a question mark whether he would be lucky a third time. It is not the first time that such videos have surfaced in public domain involving senior politicians.  The BJP has been very tough in such cases and those involved had paid a heavy price for their misadventures.

New BJP Chief after LS Polls!

When the tenure of BJP chief JP Nadda was extended by the National Council in February onth for four months, it became clear that the ruling party will have a new Chief after the polls. Nadda was appointed interim president in 2019 after Amit Shah was became Union Home Minister. It is now whispered in the corridors of power that former Haryana Chief Minister Manoharlal Khattar may be the new BJP president in place of J P Nadda. Khattar has been Modi's close confidante as he was his room-mate since the days when both were RSS' full-time pracharaks. Khattar was the personal choice of Modi as Haryana Chief Minister and had surprised political observers in 2014. With enough administrative experience behind him, Khattar qualifies to be in the next Modi Cabinet. But Modi will need a confidante to run the party affairs. Nadda may be brought into the Modi Cabinet like former party chiefs; Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah.

A classic riddle in Haryana & Jharkhand

Two states; one ruled by the BJP and another by the INDIA alliance, are facing a classic riddle. The newly appointed Haryana Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is not an MLA and he will have to contest for an Assembly seat before September. The Karnal Assembly seat has fallen vacant after Manohar Lal Khattar quit and a by-poll has been announced. Since the tenure of the Haryana Assembly is ending on November 3, Saini will have to contest again in October as tenure of the Assembly will end on November 3. Saini has resigned his Lok Sabha seat and in all likelihood, Khattar may contest for the same.

Similar riddle has emerged in Jharkhand  where Kalpana Murmu Soren, wife of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren, is unable to decide whether to contest for the Assembly or Lok Sabha polls. The by-poll in Gandeya Assembly seat in Giridih district is due. It was decided that Kalpana Murmu Soren will contest this seat and later she will be installed as Chief Minister. However, with trouble brewing in the Shibu Soren family, Kalpana Soren may prefer to contest the Dumka Lok Sabha seat. Shibu Soren's another daughter-in-law, Sita Soren has joined the BJP and it's considered a huge setback to the JMM.

Patience pays

If you are dealing with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, you must have tremendous patience. He has many parameters to test the loyalty of people and who will know better than Chirag Paswan. He was the natural choice to inherit the political legacy of his father Ram Vilas Paswan who died on October 8, 2020. But he was not made a minister and lost his bungalow even after he helped the BJP in Bihar Assembly polls and JD (U) was pushed to number three position. As if this was not enough, his estranged uncle Pashupati Paras was inducted into the Cabinet in July 2021. However, Chirag Paswan kept his cool and did not utter a word either against the BJP or Modi for three long years. When Lok Sabha polls approached, Gods smiled on him and Chirag Paswan got what he wanted; all five Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. Modi dumped Pashupati Paras like a hot potato. Reason; Modi was testing Chirag Paswan's patience. People close to him say that Modi had been doing it since his Gujarat days. Modi also knew that the 6% Paswan vote bank will go towards the son and not with “uncle” when it comes to the electorate.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The Fall of a Doon School buddy

Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath was the blue-eyed boy of the Gandhi family for almost 60 years and attained the status of “Third son of Indira Gandhi.” He was among those privileged ones who lived with Rajiv and Sanjay at the Teen Murti residence of late PM Jawaharlal Nehru during school holidays as he became their buddy at the Doon School. The Doon school club called the shots when Rajiv Gandhi became the PM. It was this DOSCO club which eventually gave birth to many of the scams the country witnessed over the decades. Kamal Nath is perhaps the last member of this club to fall from grace when he did not listen to persistent pleas of AICC state incharge of Madhya Pradesh; be it Jai Prakash Agrawal or Randeep Surjewala regarding distribution of tickets. Eventually, the Congress lost polls and Rahul Gandhi decided to sack him within 24 hours as PCC Chief. An enraged Kamal Nath tried to cross over to the BJP but his move backfired.

Insiders in the Congress say that Rahul Gandhi was always against making Kamal Nath Chief Minister but Sonia Gandhi prevailed. It was always suspected that the Modi government is soft towards Kamal Nath and not acting against his elder son Bakul Nath, an NRI in the USA, despite his name figuring in the list of beneficiaries in AgustaWestland Deal.

Bakul Nath's name surfaced after the ED extradited Rajiv Saxena from Dubai in January 2019. He was a conduit in the Rs 3,000-crore VVIP chopper deal case. Saxena's statement to the ED was over 1,000 pages and gave account of involvement of defence dealer Sushen Mohan Gupta, Kamal Nath's nephew Ratul Puri, Bakul Puri among others.

Ratul Puri was arrested by the ED in 2019 as the proceeds of crime were routed through a company owned by Savannah Trust. Bakul Nath, a beneficiary, has been unable to come to India for the past five years. Kamal Nath has denied any wrongdoing in these cases and his involvement. Anyway, his younger son and sitting Lok Sabha MP Nakul Nath has been retained as party candidate from Chhindwara as every seat matters in this do or die battle.

How Meenakshi Lekhi lost the plot

Meenakshi Lekhi had all the ingredients of becoming the Chief Ministerial face of the BJP in Delhi. She belonged to the most respected family of legendary lawyer P N Lekhi who always fought cases in courts on behalf of the RSS-Jana Sangh and commanded considerable respect. Lekhi was a party loyalist and a good orator in addition to being a good lawyer too. She was promoted rather fast in the party ranks and emerged as BJP's Lok Sabha candidate in 2014 from the prestigious New Delhi constituency. Almost all senior party leaders including late Arun Jaitley recommended her name and she was elected with a thumping majority. She made a mark by her performance in the Lok Sabha and got nominated for the second term in 2019. Later, she was inducted in the Modi government as Minister of State for External Affairs & Culture. It transpires that she fell out with her senior ministerial colleague and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar over crossing a line and even went public on a sensitive issue. She used to blow her top often and kept workers waiting for hours together. It seems success went into her head and party workers started complaining to the high command. As the power of her star faded, she lost the ticket and another emerging woman lawyer in Bansuri Swaraj emerged on the scene. Bansuri also carried with her the legacy of late Sushma Swaraj. Meenakshi Lekhi is cooling her heels now hoping for rehabilitation in the organization. If she has lost the plot, it's due to her own doing.

How Sukhu wrote his own obituary

Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was a surprise choice as Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh and was nowhere in the race for the coveted post. He was considered close to the Gandhi siblings; Rahul & Priyanka, and also a close confidant of senior party leader Anand Sharma too. Sharma is considered close to Sonia Gandhi though Rahul doesn't like him. When the Congress won the polls, Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu was chosen, nipping the prospects of Pratibha Singh, wife of late Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh. The Gandhis deputed another confidant Rajiv Shukla as state incharge to ensure that government remains stable. Since the Congress won 40 out of 68 Assembly seats, Sukhu and Shukla thought that BJP can't pose a threat. But unthinkable happened as the Sukhu-Shukla duo could never imagine that six of their own party MLAs could vote for the BJP's Rajya Sabha candidate. If Sukhu was complaisant, Shukla's hands were full with other big responsibilities like the BCCI, UP and looking after the Gandhi family. Poor Sukhu will pay the price and the Gandhis will lose a state as the BJP has tasted blood. Its only a matter of time and Sukhu's days are numbered.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Striking Similarities: 1984 vs 2024 Lok Sabha polls

The Lok Sabha polls slated to be held in April-May 2024 remind political observers of striking similarities with the one held 40 years ago. A close look at the parliamentary polls held in December 1984 soon after the assassination of PM Indira Gandhi on October 31 at her 1 Safdarjung Road residence, will reveal some of these similarities. Her son Rajiv Gandhi became the PM and went on to win 404 of the 514 Lok Sabha seats. The Lok Sabha polls were not held in Punjab and Assam due to insurgency. Incidentally, the 1984 elections were the last in the country which gave a single party 404 seats. Even a bare majority of seats could not be achieved by any political party for the next 30 years. The BJP ended up winning merely two seats in 1984 and that too in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. The regional party, TDP of NT Ramarao emerged as the leading Opposition party with 23 seats. The same BJP won 282 in 2014 and crossed the 300 seats mark in 2019.

Rajiv Gandhi may have won 404 Lok Sabha seats in 1984 polls but those were largely on the  back of a massive sympathy wave that erupted in the wake of Indira Gandhi's assassination. Rajiv Gandhi was an untried and untested, young, suave and handsome leader and generated a new hope with the masses. He gelled with the people but failed to repeat his feat in 1989. The Opposition parties of different shades joined hands and could never come back to power. The Congress regained power later but never won a majority. 

PM Narendra Modi is hoping to achieve the 400 seats feat 40 years later in 2024 and not riding on any sympathy wave. He has been able to generate confidence among the countrymen that he is a “Pradhan Sewak” (Chief servant) and will deliver whatever he says and doesn't hesitate in using any weapon in his armory to achieve his objective. When it comes to delivery, he rides on the list of 80 crore beneficiaries of his several welfare schemes. Modi's immense communication skills and establishing rapport with the people should be a cse study in itself.  Rajiv Gandhi was a visionary too and set up seven technology missions to make India economically independent. He brought computers but failed in political management and paid the price.

Tit for Tat by the BJP now

The similarities between 1984 and 2024 does not end here. If Rajiv Gandhi's war team targeted almost all prominent leaders of the Opposition parties to ensure their defeat in the Lok Sabha polls in 1984, the Modi dispensation is no different. The Congress succeeded in achieving its goal when several tall Opposition leaders like Atal Behari Vajpayee, Chandra Shekhar, S N Mishra, Raj Narain and others were defeated. Rajiv Gandhi put up several film stars and young faces like Amitabh Bachchan, Madhavrao Scindia to name a few, against tall Opposition leaders to ensure their defeat. But the BJP is no different as every Lok Sabha seat is being scrutinized through a microscope to achieve the objective. The Opposition parties are taking adequate precautions to save their skin. Sonia Gandhi opted for a Rajya Sabha seat in 2024 and avoided a contest in Rae Bareli after Rahul Gandhi's humiliating defeat in Amethi in 2019. It is still not clear whether Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will try her luck in Rae Bareli or Amethi or leave the high command in a dilemma as to whom it should put up from these two constituencies. Similarly, Shatrughan Sinha's Asansol seat in West Bengal is also on the target. Modi had specially flown to Mumbai to attend his son’s wedding. Yet he opted to quit the BJP to join the Congress and later moved towards the TMC.

Modi is also targeting all dynasties in states and screening closely leaders in his own party who think that getting a ticket is their birthright. Amethi and Dumka were on his radar in 2019 when Rahul Gandhi and Shibu Soren were defeated. This time, it will be Rae Bareli, Chhindwara, Baramati and Bengaluru Rural where DK Suresh, brother of DK Shiv Kumar, is a sitting MP.

Singhvi eyeing RS seat from Jharkhand, Kerala

After the shocking defeat of Abhishek Manu Singhvi for the Rajya Sabha seat in Himachal Pradesh, the Congress high command is contemplating to find another state for him. The immediate seat available is Jharkhand where Rajya Sabha polls will be held for two seats on May 4. The BJP and JMM-Congress combine will get one seat each. But given the political uncertainty in the state where the ruling JMM has become vulnerable after Hemant Soren went to jail, no one is sure what will happen. Secondly, the JMM is unwilling to spare a Rajya Sabha seat for the Congress due to its own political compulsions. Another proposal on the plate is that Singhvi be fielded from Kerala where the Congress will get one Rajya Sabha seat out of three. The state is less vulnerable compared to Himachal Pradesh or even Jharkhand.