by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Clouds of Uncertainty Over LS Tickets

With Prime Minister Modi sharpening his attack on dynasty politics being the root cause of evils at his rallies, no one is sure as to what is cooking in his mind. Many BJP stalwarts are struggling hard to decipher Modi's recent reference to the dynasty in his last speech made in the 17th Lok Sabha. Referring to dynasties, Modi suddenly turned to comments being made by some Opposition leaders about this culture in the BJP too. He ridiculed those Opposition leaders who compared Rajnath Singh ji's son being an MLA in the UP Assembly or Amit Shah Ji's son being in a cricket body (BCCI). Modi went on to attack the Opposition parties saying their dynasties are controlling the levers of powers which is not the case in the BJP.

Long before Modi's recent remarks, there were reports that Rajnath Singh's son Ajay Singh, MLA and Vice president of the BJP's UP unit, may be fielded for the Lok Sabha and the Defence Minister may be given another Constitutional responsibility after the polls. Modi has been successful in creating a perception that his government is set to return for a third term and may walk away with a majority of floating voters too. The buzz in the political corridors is that in his third term, Modi will go for a massive overhaul and bring in new faces from various fields. With increased focus on Southern Indian states to expand BJP's base in the years to come, Modi may rope in talent from there. The BJP had polled around 4% votes in 2019 and was targeting to take it to 10% in 2024. Modi made an exception for MoS S Murugan and gave RS ticket to him along with Ashwini Vaishnav from Odisha while denying to 6 others. It is a signal that the new ministry will see a new era. Modi has consciously not undertaken any reshuffle of his Cabinet since July 2021 despite several vacancies. Many ministers were much below the age of 75 years. This indicates that age is no longer a criteria.

Is Satyapal Malik writing a book

The CBI conducted raids on the premises of Satyapal Malik and many of his associates in Delhi and other places in connection with some projects he cleared during his tenure as Governor of J&K. The CBI has not disclosed so far as to what has been recovered during these raids and nor Malik has given any details in this regard. The BJP leadership is also tight-lipped because it had no clue how Satyapal Malik emerged on the scene from nowhere and was appointed as Governor of Bihar in 2017 and later shifted to J&K. Sources close to Malik say that he had been contemplating writing a book during his days as Governor of four states during his five year stint. His statements about the Pulwama attack on CRPF convoy had created considerable anger in the ruling dispensation. It was felt as to how a sitting Governor could make such statements and cross the 'Lakshman Rekha'. He should have been sacked immediately. But nothing of the sort happened. After he completed his tenure, he was quizzed by the CBI about these two contracts given during his tenure as Governor in J&K. In fact, due to his reports when he held the post in J&K, a senior BJP leader was removed from a key post. With regard to his forthcoming book, no one is sure whether Malik was actually writing it or was just thinking about it. The Last word about the Malik saga is yet to be written.

Bansuri Swaraj, a new buzz in town

Who is Bansuri Swaraj! No one knew her until March 2023 when she was appointed as co-convener of Delhi BJP's legal cell. No one knew that she is the daughter of Sushma Swaraj and Swaraj Kaushal. After doing her undergraduate studies from the University of Warwick with a BA (Hons) in English Literature, she went on to study Law at BPP Law School in London and enrolled with the Bar Council of India in 2007. She has 17 years of experience behind her and earned a lot of goodwill. She is quite popular among the BJP workers and leaders and there are reports that she may even be fielded in ensuing Lok Sabha polls from Delhi. She is also a popular face on TV channels representing the BJP and has impressed even BJP's opponents.

What next for Bijoy Panda, RCP Singh

The future of two senior leaders who joined the BJP from other parties- Bijoy Panda and R C P Singh- hangs in the balance. Panda came from the Biju Janata Dal while RCP Singh from the Janata Dal (U). Since new political developments have emerged in these two states, their future hangs in the balance now. Bijoy Panda has been given an important state of UP where 80 Lok Sabha seats are at stake. RCP Singh is in the BJP but has been cooling his heels in Bihar as the Nitish-led JD (U) is back with the BJP. RCP Singh was a Cabinet Minister in the Modi government from the JD (U) quota. But he is not even a member of Parliament now and so is Bijoy Panda. Both are waiting for rehabilitation. Nitish Kumar hates RCP Singh and will ensure that the BJP does not rehabilitate him in the Ministry. Whether RCP Singh will get a Lok Sabha ticket or not, is not clear as yet. The BJP may be fighting with the BJD in Odisha. But there is friendship between Naveen Patnaik and Modi which brought Ashwini Vaishnav in Rajya Sabha twice from Odisha as a bonus. The condition is to keep Bijoy Panda out. But Panda is hopeful that the Gods will be kind after the Lok Sabha polls.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

What next for Sonia Gandhi

When a reluctant Sonia Gandhi was elected as Congress president on March 14, 1998 in what is famously called a “bloodless coup” throwing sitting Sitaram Kesari out, her biggest challenge was how to rejuvenate and unite the faction-ridden party. Her decision shocked one & all as she had repeatedly turned down appeals to join the party following the assassination of her husband and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi on May 21, 1991. If she threw her weight behind P V Narasimha Rao for the PM's post in 1991 instead of Maharashtra strongman Sharad Pawar, in 1997, she also opted for Sitaram Kesari for the party chief's post. It was a tough time for her as the Congress was faced with internal revolt and threats from the rising BJP under the tall leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee and L K Advani. Her foreign origin tag was also a big stumbling block as well. Then came the big test when Congress vice president Jitendra Prasada revolted and contested against Sonia Gandhi for party President's post in August 2000. How she re-built the party and in a short span of six years installed Dr Manmohan Singh in 2004 as Prime Minister for ten long years, is history. She earned respect and her public conduct is widely appreciated too. She has opted to move to the Rajya Sabha primarily to retain her 10 JanPath bungalow and silently watch the crumbling Congress she built brick by brick. Will she take back the reins again and look for an alternative leader within the Gandhi clan or outside or continue to have faith in her loving son? No one is sure.

The rise and likely fall of a Gandhi

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi got everything on a platter ever since he entered politics in 2002. The party came to power within a short span of two years and he too was elected to the Lok Sabha from Amethi in 2004. Instead of listening to the saner voices in the party, he chose to be his own master. He refused to listen to his “Gurus” like late AK Antony or even his mother and declined to join the ministry to get training on how governments are run. He refused to undertake a training program on public speaking and mastery over Hindi. His mother did a shade better and stuck to reading Hindi rather than doing Harakiri by speaking extempore. She even rewarded her Hindi teacher two Rajya Sabha terms. Insiders say that the party and its allies were in favour of Rahul Gandhi taking over the reins of the government as PM in 2011-2012 sending Dr Manmohan Singh as the President of India. But he declined saying he would like to become the PM after winning an election fought under his leadership. Eventually, he became the Congress president in December 2017 and faced a humiliating defeat in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He lost his own bastion Amethi. He quit the post in July 2019 out of the blue. Interestingly, nobody shed a tear for him and asked him to continue. But he is happy as back-seat driver of the party making Mallikarjun Kharge a lame duck president. Many party leaders feel that he may end up as a person who is bent upon destroying the party and in the process his own political career as well. His recent speeches during his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra have made many of his partymen worried particularly during the UP leg. The kind of language and words he spoke have left his own supporters outside the Congress speechless.

Uneasiness Brewing in the First Family!

Reports emanating from the Congress' First Family suggest that all is not well. The first indication of this uneasiness came when the AICC general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra did not show up in Manipur on January 14, 2024 when Rahul Gandhi started his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra and quietly left on a foreign trip. It was stated that she will join her brother when the Yatra enters UP. But she has not been seen yet. The only time she was seen in public was when Sonia Gandhi went to Jaipur to file her nomination to take the Rajya Sabha route. But Priyanka's body language clearly reflected that something is amiss. A week later, it was announced that she was not well and was admitted to a hospital. The last word on the issue has not been written as yet though a few leaders close to her say that she may show up within the next one week as she is back from the hospital and recouping at home. Insiders say that she is extremely upset with the kind of treatment meted out to her as she was to take the Rajya Sabha route and contest from the toughest Rae Bareli seat. But she has been left high & dry. It may be mentioned here that several senior leaders of the party are in favour of making Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the party's face as Rahul Gandhi has failed to generate faith and earn the confidence of the people. The last word on the Gandhi family saga has not been written as yet.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP's Open-Arm Policy to win 370 Lok Sabha seats

4-Member committee with Vinod Tawade as member to focus on 161 seats

In order to achieve its goal of winning 370 Lok Sabha seats out of 543 in the May-2024 polls, the BJP is selectively opening its doors for leaders belonging to other parties.

The BJP has identified 161 Lok Sabha seats it wants to win which it never won in the past. The data-crunching of past Lok Sabha polls revealed that the BJP will need the help of leaders of other parties to win these seats.  Therefore, the 4-member high-powered was set up to screen the entry of leaders from other parties which are working overtime to green-flag their entry.

The committee is composed of Union Minister Bhupinder Yadav, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Maharashtra's senior leader and general secretary Vinod Tawde and general secretary (Organisation) B L Santhosh.

There are reports that as many as dozen Mps from Congress, 40 MLAs and other prominent leaders may quit their parties and join the BJP within the next three weeks in phases.

The committee's focus is on those states where the BJP has a formidable presence but still wants to win those seats where it is on weak wickets. The states like Maharashtra, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, are on radar to add more seats in BJP's kitty. The BJP core team feels that the party could add at least 25+ Lok Sabha seats from these states in addition to retaining those it won in 2019. Chhindwara Lok Sabha seat is among the 161 Lok Sabha seats that the BJP could not win in decades.

There are states like Punjab, West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, Jharkhand and a couple of others where it can add 10 Lok Sabha seats if leaders of substance from other parties could be roped in.

The committee's focus is particularly on Punjab where it feels that the party could win all 13 seats if handled properly. It roped in Capt Amrinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar from Congress. The states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are in special focus where the BJP can at least win 15 seats with tie-up TDP and other regional parties. For remaining Southern states, the BJP is aiming to win 10 plus seats.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Social Media keeps Modi Ministers on Tenterhooks

Parents are worried all over the world about the growing habit among children glued to social media most of the time. Policy makers are debating how to curtail the growing influence of FaceBook, X, Instagram, Whatsapp and other vehicles. But Prime Minister Modi's Ministers and top leaders are making full use of these social media platforms to publicize government decisions and programs among the people. Every Union Minister is expected to immediately load his ministry's decisions on these platforms as early as possible. If any of the leaders of Opposition parties adversely comment on a government decision, the concerned minister is expected to react without delay. A battery of other BJP leaders are also deployed to denounce such adverse comments within a short time. In fact, no other party has made full use of these social media platforms. Every ministry and department has a battery of social media handlers who are battle ready 24X7 to assist. But all such tweets and posts are cleared at the highest level in the ministry and ministers are always at tenterhooks. The party's social media department works round the clock and keeps track of all such activities on these platforms. In fact, the communication channels between the party and the government have virtually been merged under the Modi dispensation. The BJP's head of media department Anil Baluni coordinates with ministers and party leaders to chalk out a common media reaction to situations as they arise round the clock. This strategy has rich dividends to the BJP. The greater task ahead is to evolve a synergy between the party and the BJP-ruled state governments also which is being implemented gradually.

Lord Rama helping Modi?

Strange it may sound but seems to be true. A number of Modi followers believe that Lord Rama has blessed the Prime Minister ever since he undertook 'Pran Pratishtha' in Ayodhya on January 22. Before the Pran Pratishtha, it looked as if there was a tough battle between the BJP and the INDI Alliance parties for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The commentators were saying that the NDA will be lucky to retain 300 plus seats in the Lok Sabha polls. But Modi's fortunes turned after January 22. It seems that there is a divine blessing to the PM as one partner after the other started leaving the INDI Alliance. 

The first setback came from Bihar when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar decided to dump the INDIA bloc in a dramatic development and went back to the BJP. As if this was not enough, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee  announced her decision to go alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. She blamed Rahul Gandhi in particular for the mess. This development came despite a clear assessment of the Congress strategists that the CPM vote in West Bengal is not transferable to the Congress or to the TMC. If the Congress-TMC alliance takes place, the CPM vote will be split among the various groupings. The Muslims have already gone with the TMC in West Bengal. Even the Aam Aadmi Party walked out of the alliance with the Congress in Punjab though it is still offering one seat in Delhi in lieu of seats in Goa, Gujarat, Haryana and other states. Even in Jharkhand, it will be extremely difficult for the JMM-Congress-RJD to stay together as Chief Minister Champai Soren is a different fish in the cattle. No one is sure that former Chief Minister Hemant Soren will be able to hold his grip on the party. As if this was not enough, many senior leaders of the Congress in states have started quitting the party and the carnage is continuing. But Rahul Gandhi is not rattled and is on his own trip.

Retired Officers in demand

Gone are the days when retired top bureaucrats used to hanker for post-retirement benefits. A new trend has emerged when such retired bureaucrats and officers join boards of corporate sector companies either as Independent Directors or in other key positions. There is a battery of retired IAS, IRS & IPS officers who have joined the corporate sector. But one officer who joined Religare Enterprises Ltd turned heads as he waited for months for a key post retirement job. Rakesh Asthana is an IPS officer of 1984 batch of Gujarat cadre and was Delhi's Police Commissioner. But he got no post and opted to join a private sector company which is  embroiled in many legal battles for its wrong doings. A former CBI director is also on the board of a private company. Rather, there is a demand for such seasoned officers who held key positions in CBI, ED, Income Tax and other such agencies in the past.  The corporate sector needs them for their advice and assistance.

Mamata takes lead

Except for Mamata Banerjee's TMC, no other national or regional political party including BJP or Congress gave more than 33% seats to the women either in the Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha. The BJP may take the credit that it passed the bill giving reservations to women in legislative assemblies and parliament last year. But hardly any party followed the law in spirit except the TMC of Mamata Banerjee. The TMC has been sending a maximum number of women in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha though its following is confined to West Bengal in electoral terms. The Congress has Sonia Gandhi at the helm for more than 25 years. But it sends fewer numbers of women in RS or Lok Sabha and the same goes for the BJP. However, once the law comes into force, the parties will be forced to nominate 33% women in the legislature.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Suspense over Baramati continues

With the BJP high command determined to increase its seat and vote tally in the 2024- Lok Sabha polls, it is asking its allies in states to put their best foot forward. As part of this strategy, it is prodding its key ally NCP led by Ajit Pawar in Maharashtra to snatch all the four seats; Baramati, Satara, Shirur and Raigarh, that the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) held in 2019 LS polls.

Sharad Pawar had pitched his daughter Supriya Sule from his traditional Baramati Lok Sabha seat to send a clear message that she will be his heir apparent. But the situation took a dramatic turn when Ajit Pawar staged a coup and walked away with the majority of MLAs. He joined hands with the BJP to dislodge the MVA government with more than 40 MLAs. Reports emanating from BJP headquarters in Delhi say that Ajit Pawar is being prodded to field his wife from Baramati Lok Sabha against Supriya Sule. This is despite the fact that PM Modi and Pawar have a personal chemistry running over many decades. But times have changed and if insiders are to be believed, the BJP is drawing a strategy to win all six Rajya Sabha seats in the biennial polls due this month. The NDA can manage to win five seats but there are many strategists who claim that the NDA can win six seats if remaining MLAs in the Opposition kitty play ball with the BJP. The Congress has 41 MLAs in a House of 288 and neither the NCP (Pawar) and now Sena (Uddhav) can win a seat on their own. There are reports that senior Pawar may invoke sympathy factor in Baramati saying this will be his last election of his life. Will it work or not can only be tested in May only.

A trust with No Trust

The great “Paltu Ram” of Indian politics has broken all past records of “Aaya Rams & Gaya Rams” that were witnessed in Haryana almost 45 years ago. When the mediators were brokering a peace deal again between the Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar and the BJP leadership for an alliance once again, there was a hitch. Nitish Kumar wanted a fresh letter of appointment from the Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar immediately after he tendered his resignation from the post of Chief Minister. He wanted his resignation to be accepted immediately and the BJP should simultaneously submit its letter of support to him to the Governor then & there. He also wanted the Governor to hand him over a fresh letter of appointment then & there. Nitish also insisted that the swearing-in-ceremony be held the same day. It was a piquant situation for the BJP as its MLAs had not held any meeting to lend their support to Nitish Kumar so that the party could hand over a letter of support to Nitish Kumar to the Governor. Nitish Kumar, by nature is very suspicious in nature and insisted that agreement can be reached if conditions are met. The BJP agreed to all the conditions with a proviso that Lok Sabha seat sharing deal will be on merit and not on the basis of 2019 outcome. It was only after these tricky behind-the-scenes deals the BJP could return to power sharing deal with Nitish Kumar. Interestingly, Nitish Kumar has also been appointed as the head of the NDA in Bihar.

Why Bharat Ratna to LK Advani?

Ever since the Modi government gave Padma Vibhushan to Samajwadi leader late Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2023, the RSS and die-hard BJP workers were upset. After all, it was Mulayam Singh Yadav's government in UP that opened fire on Ram Bhakts in Ayodhya on October 30, 1990 after a clash erupted between the karsevaks and the police. The organisers -- the VHP, the RSS and the BJP - wanted a Ram temple at the site of Babri Masjid but it was not yet clear what the karsevaks would do to the mosque. Therefore, the Sangh Parivar was sulking without saying anything about the award to Yadav. It may be recalled that in 2003, RSS ideologue Dattopant Thengadi rejected the Padma Bhushan award until K. B. Hedgewar (RSS founder) and M. S. Golwalkar (RSS ideologue) are offered the Bharat Ratna. The award to Thengri was given by the Vajpayee government. The RSS has been maintaining studied silence on these awards for decades. Therefore, when the Modi government gave Bharat Ratna to Advaniji, it did not offer any comment. But the common BJP worker is extremely elated as Advani is considered a noble man who built the BJP from two Lok Sabha seats to 182 and brought it to power through the Ram movement. Lately, the Modi government has been rewarding party workers and appointment of three chief ministers in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh is an indication of this new thinking.

Modi 370 target rattles allies

The other day, Prime Minister Modi declared in the Lok Sabha that the BJP will win 370 seats and the NDA will cross the 400-seats mark. In order to achieve the target, the BJP is now squeezing its allies in Maharashtra, Bihar and elsewhere to get more seats to contest. For example, it wants Nitish Kumar to contest 10-12 seats only instead of 17. The BJP had conceded its own five seats to Nitish Kumar in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now it wants these back in the 2024 polls. Similarly, the BJP wants to contest at least 30 plus seats. In 2019, the BJP contested 25 seats in alliance with the united Shiv Sena. It has been indicating to NCP led by Ajit Pawar and Sena (Shinde) to contest only those seats where it can win. The last word on these tricky issues is yet to be written.