by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

PM's strict Covid protocol

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been following strict Covid protocol for the past almost three years. The PMO continued its tough instance even when all restrictions were withdrawn after the third wave waned. All visitors who call on the PM including Chief Ministers, Cabinet Ministers and other visitors have to undergo Covid tests. Whenever there is a Cabinet meeting held physically, Ministers have to undergo Covid test before entering the meeting room. There is a drill in this regard which has to be followed by all. At least two Cabinet Ministers were found to be Covid positive on two different occasions when they were about to meet the PM. Recently, Himachal Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu had an appointment with PM Modi after he was elected. When he reached the PMO to call on Modi, he was asked to undergo Covid test and was found to be infected. He went back and quarantined himself. It is largely because of this very reason that the PM prefers to hold meetings and inaugurates many projects virtually. With the threat from Covid emerging again due to the advent of new viruses, the PMO has tightened Covid rules further.

 

Rahul's self goals

Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ may have galvanized the Congress in states. It may have also succeeded in changing public perception about him to a certain extent. But his foot-in-the-mouth disease continues unabated. Nearly two decades into public life, Rahul Gandhi’s choice of words during public discourse, whenever he speaks in Hindi, continues to hurt him and the party as well. The other day, while addressing a rally during the course of his Yatra, he said that regional parties have no national vision. This was despite the fact that the Congress is in alliance with a number of regional parties in states; DMK in Tamil Nadu, JMM in Jharkhand, RJD & JD (U) in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and in other states. He did not even clarify his stand either. A few days later, he wrote personal letters to leaders of 15 political parties inviting them to join his yatra in Delhi on December 24 or wherever possible. He gave details of states he will cover en-route to Srinagar. The DMK was extremely upset with him. Yet DMK leader Kanimouzi and an MP of Shiv Sena showed up. The Congress leaders were frantically telephoning senior leaderships but to no avail. It is unlikely that BSP will send a representative. It is yet to be seen who all will show up when he resumes his Yatra on January 3, 2023.

The TMC, AAP and other Opposition parties who joined hands with the Congress at the initiative of Mallikarjun Kharge in Parliament were nowhere to be seen with Rahul Gandhi. Rahul’s speeches at some of the rallies have also caused anxiety among those who want to support him. Recently, he gave a classic analogy saying his rallies are symbols of love and affections. It could be seen even when “dogs, pigs, cows and other animals came in the way. But nobody treated them with hate or anger” leaving the audience in pits.

 

National role for new Chanakya!

 

There are signs that Gujarat BJP Chief and Lok Sabha MP C R Paatil may be given a key role at the national level. Paatil, a little known politician maintains a low profile though he was incharge of PM Modi's Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency since 2014. With the Prime Minister showering praises on him after BJP broke all records in the recently concluding Gujarat Assembly polls, it was widely speculated that Paatil may be new party chief in place of J P Nadda. But reports emanating from BJP headquarters suggest that Nadda will continue in his post until 2024 Lok Sabha polls. However, Paatil may be given a key role as an election strategist for key states other than Gujarat. The BJP has identified 170 vulnerable Lok Sabha seats in 2024.

 

OPS, Modi's new headache

 

Prime Minister Modi has a new headache in hand; growing demand in states for revival of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) for government employees which was discontinued in 2004 and New Pension Scheme (NPS) was brought in. Modi is strongly opposed to the revival of OPS. When the BJP's Himachal unit wanted to include the OPS in its manifesto, the proposal was shot down. One of the major reasons for BJP's defeat in HP Assembly polls is that government employees voted for the Congress. Now the BJP leadership is in a dilemma as to what it should do in nine states which are set to go to polls during 2023. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has already announced bringing OPS and given a number of doles as the state will go to polls next year end. Gehlot's next master stroke was giving a gas cylinder refill for Rs 500 from April 2023. There are more than 60 lakh beneficiaries under the Ujjawala scheme. But a majority of them had stopped taking refills as its cost was too high. Will the BJP come out with a matching relief package like in providing foodgrains? No one knows what's cooking in the PMO.

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

BJP's dilemma: Where to hold its National Executive

 

The BJP leadership is under considerable pressure from many state units insisting that January National Executive be held in their state. The Karnataka unit is insisting that it should be held there as the state is going to polls in April-May and such a mega event will give a fillip to the prospects of the party to retain power. It will also help the faction-ridden Karnataka unit to sink differences before the polls.

However, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is also pleading with the party high command to hold the event in the state as it will also go to polls in November-December 2023. The Delhi unit also wants the event to be held here as the party needs a booster dose to defeat the AAP in elections.

 

However, the BJP leadership has been maintaining a studied silence over the venue. The dates are likely to be announced in the first week of January. The last executive was held in Hyderabad in October 2022.

 

The January National Executive is considered significant in the sense that it has to re-elect J P Nadda for the next three year term or get a new president. Nadda has completed three years in office and it is expected that he will be given a second term as per the practice barring unforeseen reasons.

There is widespread speculation that Nadda may be replaced by C R Paatil, a new Chankaya of the BJP on the horizon after Gujarat's unprecedented win. The uncertainty also emerged as BJP lost Himachal Assembly polls, a home state of J P Nadda. But the BJP insiders say that Nadda will be given a second term as he has performed extremely well during the past three years. A defeat in his home state in the Assembly polls cannot be laid at his doorstep, say party sources.

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

PM's plan to give Pucca Houses to rural poor goes awry 

West Bengal on Top, Gujarat, Maharashtra lag behind

West Bengal has become the leading state in the country in terms of building pucca houses for the homeless. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state Gujarat, which is considered a grand success in the implementation of central government schemes, lagged behind.

In West Bengal, the work is being completed at the fastest pace under this scheme. The success rate in West Bengal is 91.7%. Of the 34.68 registered beneficiaries in West Bengal, 33.89 lakh houses have been built achieving 91.7% target.
On the other hand, in Maharashtra, the rate of completion of houses is 69% which is slightly less than the national average of 71%.

According to the latest data of the Ministry of Rural Development, a total of more than 13 lakh rural beneficiaries are to be given pucca houses in Maharashtra under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Gramin) (PMAYG). But only 8.96 lakh (68.95%) houses have been completed so far.

The national average of giving pucca houses to rural homeless people is 71.1. Of the 2.74 crore registered beneficiaries under the scheme across the country, 2.08 crore houses have been completed.

Another major BJP-ruled state of UP achieved 95% success rate and placed at number two after West Bengal. According to data by the Rural Development Ministry till December 14, 25.88 lakh houses have been completed out of 27.24 lakh registered beneficiaries in the state. In Gujarat, of the 4.72 lakh registered under the scheme, 3.98 lakh houses have been built. Punjab and Haryana have achieved 63.65% and 76.22% of the target. The scheme was launched in 2016 and to be completed by December 2022.

PM Awas Yojna Gramin
STATE	House built against Registration. (%)	No. of Houses Completed
WB	97.71	3389178
UP	95	2588382
OR	92.97	1707459
GUJ	91.95	398015
BH	89.68	3314431
JH	86.13	1363324
RJ	85.5	1474576
MP	81.49	3059864
HR	76.22	21527
MH	68.95	896636
PUN	63.65	24619
All India	71.1	29265028

Data as on Dec. 14, 2022

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

 

Govt.- SC confrontation: Who Will Blink?

 

The country is waiting with bated breath the end result of an unprecedented dual between the government and judiciary in public. The recent flash point erupted due to the Modi government's  renewed desire to have an effective role in the appointments and transfers of judges in the higher judiciary. The PM’s first attempt in 2014 to enact the National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) failed as the SC's Constitution bench negated it saying the collegium system won’t be abolished. After Modi's landslide win in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it was expected that his government would bring NJAC.2. But nothing of the sort happened.  Suddenly, Union Law Minister Kiran Rijiju woke up and blasted the collegium system saying nowhere in the world judges appoint judges. Sharing dais with the Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud at a Law Day function in November 2022, Rijiju went on to say that the collegium system is against the very spirit of the Constitution. But the SC warned against "derailing the collegium system". Not to be cowed down, Rejiju reiterated his stand in a TV show and took the battle inside the Parliament as well. He declared, “Unless the procedure of appointment of judges’ changes, the issue of high judicial vacancies will keep cropping up.” As if this was not enough, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar also echoed the same sentiments in Rajya Sabha. But the Supreme Court did not take it lying down and went on to say, “Speeches made by the high constitutional functionaries in public on the SC Collegium are not very well taken. The Collegium system is the "law of the land" which should be "followed to the teeth". But Kiran Rijiju was not the one to give up and looked determined to show the judiciary a mirror. Responding to a spate of questions in Parliament during Question Hour, Rijiju raked up the issue of massive pendency of cases in courts. Rijiju also touched the raw nerve about judges going on vacations. He said, “There was a feeling among the people that long court vacations were not very convenient for justice seekers.” As if this was not enough, Rijiju also questioned the wisdom of the SC taking up bail matters. In an apparent response, Chandrachud said, “no case is too small for the SC, asking “If we do not act in matters of personal liberty and grant relief, then what we are doing here.” The CJI took another unusual step saying that there will be no “vacation benches” available this winter. Normally, the SC had been providing two vacation benches during holidays for the benefit of litigants. Since then, the government has gone into the shell. Whether the government was testing the waters or serious in bringing NJAC.2 during the Budget session could be anybody’s guess. Political analysts and legal luminaries wonder why the government is entering into a confrontation with the judiciary in an election year. Secondly, the Opposition parties may not lend support to NJAC.2 in 2023 as they gave in 2014. The Modi government had to retreat with regard to the Land Acquisition Act, Farm Laws etc.   

 

Rahul's Baffling 9-day break

 

The 9-day long break in Bharat Jodo Yatra by Rahul Gandhi from December 24 to January 3 has surprised Congress watchers. Will Rahul Gandhi be on a long sabbatical abroad to celebrate New Year and Christmas. No one has a clue in the party. Jairam Ramesh, Congress's head of Communications gave an interesting explanation saying the sabbatical was necessary as more than 60 trucks (containers) carrying Congress leaders and goods need to be repaired as the Yatra will have to reach Srinagar. These 60 trucks are used for the living, sleeping, and daily needs of around 300yatris who are traveling with Rahul Gandhi. Interestingly, Rahul Gandhi has been given a custom made container having all the 5-star facilities like AC, sofa, special kitchen etc. It is said that the Bharat-Jodo Yatra will cost more than Rs 100 crores and take the party nowhere electorally.

 

Modi's foreign visits 

Prime Minister Modi is set to surpass former PM Dr Manmohan Singh’s record with regard to foreign visits. Manmohan Singh undertook 73 foreign trips (35 during 2004-2009 and 38 during the second term 2009-2014) and an amount of Rs 699 crores was spent on these trips during a ten year period. In comparison, PM Modi undertook 69 foreign visits ever since he came to power in May 2014 until November 2022. During his first stint in office, he undertook 49 foreign visits and 20 trips in his second stint so far. Modi has 17 more months to complete his 10 years rule. But in terms of impact, it is unanimously admitted that Modi had made more global impact during his foreign visits. According to data available, an amount of Rs 623.82 crores was spent on 63 foreign visits. The amount on the remaining six visits was borne by the Union Home Affairs and IAF which is not made available. But Modi was on foreign soil for 181 days in 8 years while Manmohan Singh was abroad for 149 days in 10 years.

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

ED's dismal record: 31 convicted in 20 cases in 17 years under PMLA

CVC recommends action against 2724 corrupt officials

The Directorate of Enforcement (ED) has taken up investigation in around 87 cases under the provisions of Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 (PMLA) against MPs, MLAs and MLCs (both- ex & sitting). During the last five years 59 Prosecution Complaints (PCs) have been filed before the Special Court (PMLA) which are at various stages of trial.

Interestingly, since July 1, 2005 when the PMLA came into force, the trial has been completed only in 36 cases by the Special Court till date. The trial of offense of money laundering has been completed only in 21 cases on merit out of 36 decided cases which resulted in conviction of 31 accused in 20 cases.

In the remaining 15 cases, trial of offence of money laundering could not proceed further on merit due to quashing of predicate offence on the basis of charge sheet filed by predicate agency. However, in these cases appeal has been preferred before High Courts. It was also stated by the government in the Rajya Sabha that as many as 1082 remaining cases are at various stages of trial.

Meanwhile, the government has taken action against 2724 corrupt officials including 248 cases of prosecution sanction in 2021. The Ministry of Personnel said that the action has been taken against the officials on the recommendations of the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) by various ministries and departments. However, out of these 2724 cases deviations from the Commission’s advice were also noted in 55 cases by some ministries.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Don’t Take Kharge for Granted



Congress Party’s “elected president” Mallikarjun Kharge should not be taken for granted. Though Kharge was hand-picked by the Gandhis, he is slowly and gradually establishing his authority. The first sign of his authority came when general secretary Ajay Maken offered to resign as incharge of Rajasthan affairs. Without blinking even for a second, Kharge relieved him from the responsibilities. Kaken had said that he would devote his time to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. But Kharge did not utter a word on the issue. Maken is cooling his heels and looking for a role. Kharge also picked four advisers of his choice in his core team. If reports are to be believed, he also snubbed AICC’s Communications Department head Jairam Ramesh during the first meeting of the 47-member strong Steering Committee. The meeting was being presided over by Kharge when he saw Ramesh was constantly chattering and disturbing the deliberations. Kharge virtually scolded him, sending a clear signal that protocol has to be maintained. Sonia Gandhi looked towards Ramesh disapprovingly. Incidentally, Kharge and Jairam Ramesh hail from Karnataka but didn’t have any rapport.  

 

CR Paatil, Emergence of a New Star

 

The BJP has seen the emergence of a new star on the horizon in the Gujarat Assembly elections. The BJP win in the state was a foregone conclusion and it was widely believed that Modi-Shah team will cross the 130 seats mark in a house of 182. But the outcome shocked all pollsters as the BJP touched an unprecedented figure of 156. Not many outside Gujarat understood the importance of the man who played a key role in planning the BJP’s historic win. When Paatil was first appointed as Gujarat BJP Chief in July 2020, eyebrows were raised as to why Modi picked a person who hailed from Maharashtra. But those close to Modi knew that Paatil is a silent warrior. He was incharge of Modi’s Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency in 2014 and in 2019 LS polls as well.

When Paatil was given the Gujarat responsibility, he wanted to set the target of winning all 182 seats. His argument was that if the BJP can win all 26 Lok Sabha seats from the state, why can't the party win all 182 seats. But this catchy slogan was dropped after deliberations and BJP kept talking about crossing the 149 seats mark won by Madhav Sinh Solanki. It transpires that Modi gave Paatil a free hand to select candidates and evolve a new strategy. It was Paatil’s proposal to change the entire Cabinet including the Chief Minister Vijay Rupani in September 2021. Paatil also introduced new strategies at booth and even street level in every village. Paatil’s model will be replicated in Gujarat and other poll bound states in 2023. He also brought in new saffron caps party leaders sported during the campaign. Modi also ensured that Paatil will address the media after the big Gujarat win and announce that Bhupendra Patel will be the next Chief Minister of the state. It’s a signal that Paatil is the new hero emerging in the BJP. While many in the BJP say that he will be inducted into the Union Cabinet but others say that he may be given a bigger role in the organization as Modi is looking to cross the 400 Lok Sabha seats mark.

Why Chouhan should be worried

The big Gujarat win notwithstanding, it’s the defeat in Himachal Pradesh and Delhi MCD polls that has made the BJP leadership worried. The heads have started rolling in the BJP immediately after defeat in two states indicates that mere hype won’t work in nine states that will go to polls in 2023. The BJP also nipped in the bud any talk of encouraging defections in Delhi or Himachal Pradesh to overturn popular mandate.  The defeat of BJP in Himachal does not augur well for Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.  Reports emanating from BJP headquarters suggest that had the party sacked Jairam Thakur along with some of the ministers, the result could have been different. Such an experiment paid rich dividends including Gujarat. The BJP leadership has been toying with the idea of removing Chouhan and bringing a new face to overcome anti-incumbency against him. 

 

Vasundhara is sitting pretty

 

Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhararaje Scindia has reasons to be happy with the outcome of Himachal Assembly polls. It is for the first time the BJP leadership faced a major rebellion in a state and ensured the party's defeat. The BJP leadership is keen to anoint Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Shekhawat as Chief Minister and not Scindia in Rajasthan in the event of the party winning the polls. But Himachal’s defeat has made the leadership worried about the rebel factor in the desert state. In Himachal, the PM went to the extent of personally ringing up a rebel to make him withdraw. But he declined and went on to even leak the conversation as well.  

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

When Sonia-Rahul Vetoed Priyanka's Proposal to make Agnihotri as HP CM

 

The Congress win in Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls may have elated Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and her supporters as the win had come after a four year long  drought for the party. She along with her supporters Bhupesh Baghel, Rajiv Shukla,  Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Sachin Pilot and a handful of others campaigned  in Himachal.  But her writ didn’t run when it came to picking up the Chief Ministerial candidate in Himachal.

It transpires that Priyanka wanted  Mukesh Agnihotri as the CM and even two observers also recommended Agnihotri's name for the post. Agnihotri is a trusted loyalist of late Virbhadra Singh and Pratibha Singh had also decided to back him when she found that she didn't have much of a support. But it was Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, four time MLA and arch enemy of Virbhadra Singh, who was picked up by Sonia Gandhi in consultation with Rahul Gandhi.  Rahul was with her at the Ranthambore National Park and it was here that they decided that Sukhu be made the CM.

It is learnt that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge was in Kalaburgi in Karnataka on December 10 and was about to address a rally when a call came on his mobile. He got up from his seat and went behind the dais. Sources said it was Rahul Gandhi on the other side of the phone and informed him that Sukhu be declared as the next CM.

It was also decided that Rahul Gandhi will return to Delhi on Saturday night itself from Ranthambore National Park and attend the swearing-in-ceremony. Accordingly, Kharge immediately rang up Hooda, Baghel and Rajiv Shukla to convey the decision to the Governor and fix the swearing-in on Sunday itself. Sources also say that Sukhu had also handed over a letter, signed by 21 out of 40 Congress MLAs to the observers who lent their support to him for the CM’s post. However, observers still wanted Agnihotri. But  Sonia Gandhi vetoed Priyanka’s choice. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

 

Priyanka on 7th Heaven 

 

The outcome of Himachal Pradesh polls has sent Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and her supporters on 7th Heaven. She was perhaps the lone star campaigner of the party as neither Sonia Gandhi nor Rahul Gandhi addressed any of the election meetings. Priyanka Gandhi chose her own team which included Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, Rajya Sabha MP Rajiv Shukla, former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and a handful of others. After the Congress win when Rajiv Shukla was asked if the credit for the win goes to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, he shot back, "Of course. Who else?". Ever since Priyanka Gandhi entered politics, she had no feathers in her cap. Though she is affable and soft-spoken and worked hard in UP Assembly polls. But there was no luck. Her experiments in Punjab cost dearly to the party too. But Himachal win has brought feathers in her cap.  The next challenge for the Congress indeed will be in 2023 as Assembly polls are due in 10 states. Rahul Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' may have generated some goodwill for the former party president. But it's real test will be in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in 2023-24.

 

Opposition unity a far cry 

 

The BJP lost power in Delhi MCD polls after ruling it for 15 years and came a cropper in Himachal Pradesh. The Opposition parties prevented the BJP a clean sweep in all three states as it claimed and resorted to massive campaigning by using every weapon in its armory. But except for Gujarat where it created history, the BJP has no reason to rejoice. Himachal Pradesh may be a tiny state but results showed that the state did not buck the trend. Himachal Pradesh is known for changing governments every five years for several decades. However, the victory of AAP in Delhi and Congress in Himachal Pradesh would not lead to unity among the Opposition parties to take on the BJP collectively in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The TMC and AAP may have attended a meeting called by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge for floor coordination in Parliament. But many parties missed it including BSP, TRS, YSR Congress, JD (S) and others. Such floor coordinations have no meaning as all these parties are eating into the vote bank of Congress Party only. The AIMIM has been walking out with a sizable number of minority votes in states after states. The AAP did the same in Gujarat where it obtained 13% plus votes and damaged the Congress in 30-odd seats. It is desperate to replace Congress wherever possible. The Congress win may have given some relief to the leadership. Therefore, the Opposition unity may remain a pipe dream only. 

 

An unusual Sonia-Nitish meeting 

 

Details of a close-door meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Bihar Chief Minister and JD (U) supremo Nitish Kumar and RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav at 10 Janpath have now surfaced. The meeting took place after five long years between Sonia Gandhi and Nitish Kumar a couple of months ago. It was reported then that the meeting was sought by Nitish Kumar and it was cordial. The purpose of this meeting was to break the ice as the JD (U) leader had walked out of RJD-Congress alliance in 2017 to join hands with the BJP. It now transpires that it was Lalu Prasad Yadav who called up Sonia Gandhi to request a meeting at a short notice. Sonia Gandhi was getting ready to go somewhere and was reluctant to meet as it was a Sunday. But she agreed. Lalu and Nitish came separately in their respective cars and by the time they reached 10 Janpath, Sonia Gandhi was already out of her room. It transpires that she talked to Lalu and Nitish Kumar for barely 10 minutes while standing as she was getting late. She exchanged pleasantries and was apologetic for not being able to host them properly at a short notice. If Nitish Kumar’s purpose was to emerge as leader of the Opposition’s pack, the purpose was not achieved. It was a signal to Nitish Kumar that Congress may not concede its space to him as easily as was the case in 2017. Nitish Kumar had come to Delhi after attending an INLD rally in Haryana and wanted to meet Sonia Gandhi at a short notice. The meeting did take place. But the outcome was not very encouraging.

BJP to field 60+ new faces in LS

The BJP may be preparing for Assembly polls in 9 states in 2023. But it is simultaneously working for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. If reports emanating from the BJP headquarters are any indication, the party has decided to field at least 60-70 new faces in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP trio comprising PM Modi, Amit Shah and J P Nadda are holding regular meetings with state unit chiefs and identifying new faces. It transpires that all above the age of 75 will be replaced including several union ministers. For example, UP MLA Rajeshwar Singh has already been told to work for the Lok Sabha seat Ghaziabad, presently represented by Gen. VK Singh. There are more than 15 sitting MPs who will cross the 75 years age barrier. Similarly, Kuldeep Bishnoi who quit the Congress and joined the BJP is keen to contest from Hisar Lok Sabha seat in 2024. This will put a question mark on the future of Birjinder Singh who is a sitting MP and son of former Union Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh. Gujarat’s former Deputy CM Nitin Patel may now be fielded from Mehsana replacing the sitting MP.  The BJP leadership has been holding marathon meetings with Maharashtra leaders to identify seats and new faces for Lok Sabha polls. An extensive survey work in all constituencies is underway to gauge the mood.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

AAP itching to become a National Party

Gujarat, Himachal crucial

 The AAP has been working hard to get the status of a national party and gain more than 8% of valid votes polled in Gujarat and Himachal. It already has more than 8% votes in Delhi and Punjab.

 Though it contested Assembly polls in Goa, Uttarakhand, UP too. But it missed the bus. It indeed got a shot in its arm when the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP secured a landslide win in Punjab. In order to be recognized as a national party, the AAP has to  win either 2% of Lok Sabha seats (at least 11 seats)  from three different states or should poll 6% of the valid votes in four or more states. In addition, it must win four Lok Sabha seats. Presently, the AAP is recognized as a state party in Delhi and Punjab.  It suffered a serious setback in 2019 when the AAP failed to secure any Lok Sabha seat except one in Punjab. Even the lone Lok Sabha seat in Punjab lost in a by-election when Bhagwant Maan quit to become the Chief Minister.  

Therefore, the AAP may get recognition as a state party in four states at the moment if it obtains 6% votes and at least two seats in the Assembly. Alternatively, it should get 6% votes and at least one Lok Sabha seat in a state.

There is also a third option; it can get recognition if it gets at least 8% of the total valid votes in the state in an Assembly or Lok Sabha election. It is in this context that the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly poll outcome will be crucial as its symbol will be reserved nationally, and it will also get other benefits like getting an office space from the government at concessional rates. Currently, BJP, Congress, CPI, CPI-M, TMC, BSP NCP and NPP are recognized as national parties.

 

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

 

Agencies press Pause button in Maharashtra

 

All of a sudden the probe agencies of the Union Government have pressed the pause button in Maharashtra. Perhaps, after a change of guards in the state, the agencies are smoking the peace pipe. The Enforcement Directorate, CBI or Narcotics Control Bureau is not as active in the state as they were a few months ago. Though some leaders may be summoned by these agencies but there will be no coercive action or pro-active approach. Even the Income-Tax’s Investigation wing is on the prowl in other states but not in Maharashtra. It is said that the BJP leadership wants some breathing space as the political churning is going on and a lot of behind the scenes activities are at a feverish pitch. Therefore, there is no need to accelerate cases against other senior leaders of the Shiv Sena (Thackeray), NCP and Congress. The BJP’s understanding is that no useful purpose will be served by bringing rivals under further pressure. Insiders in the BJP say that the party is not confident enough to face the Mumbai Corporation polls and would wait until the outcome of the Himachal and Gujarat polls. Some party leaders are of the view that Shinde and Thackeray factions be persuaded to join hands in the larger interest of strengthening the Hindutva forces. Rahul Gandhi’s comment on Veer Savarkar was nothing but a self-goal at a time when the Opposition parties are planning to give a united fight to the BJP in 2024. But the former Congress president had given an avoidable ammunition to dismember the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition. Another comment by Rahul Gandhi on a contentious issue will do the rest. Secondly, many of the NCP leaders feel that it was Sharad Pawar’s ‘Himalayan Blunder’ not to join hands with the BJP in November 2019. Perhaps, Pawar is nursing an ambition to lead Opposition parties in 2024. Those in the know of things say that the Congress in Maharashtra may witness turmoil if the BJP returns to power in Himachal and Gujarat and AAP emerges as a new force. Therefore, those monitoring probe agencies are focusing on states other than Maharashtra like Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Delhi, etc.  Surprisingly, Jharkhand and Punjab are also witnessing a cooling period.

Mamata-Modi bonhomie 

On November 3 in this column I had written that 'Mamata is getting a breather!' in the Rs 50 crores cash recovery in the teachers' recruitment scam as Central agencies won't implicate her. Within weeks, a new Governor was appointed by the Modi government in West Bengal who is playing cool. Within days of the appointment, Mamata Banerjee announced that she will call on PM Narendra Modi in Delhi on December 5. As if this was not enough, Mamata Banerjee also invited her arch rival and BJP's Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari for a cup of tea and the ice melted in no time. If Mamata is cozying up to the BJP leadership, the Saffron party has also realised that prolonged bitterness will not serve any political purpose either. Perhaps, Modi wants Mamata's cooperation in passing some key legislation in Parliament as the TMC is the third largest group. 

 

Will CBI’s Jaiswal get extension?

 

It is no secret that the CBI has not been playing ball with the powers that be as was the case earlier. CBI’s current Director Subodh Kumar Jaiswal, a Maharashtra cadre IPS officer, is made of a different mettle. He is stickler to the rules and considered a tough nut. Since he was selected for the post in May 2021 by a panel composed of the PM, CJI and Leader of the Congress in Lok Sabha, the government also has some hesitation. The government is extremely comfortable with the ED’s Director, Sanjay Mishra and gave him a record tenure of almost five years by giving one extension after the other. But the record of CBI under Jaiswal is no less. Since Jaiswal’s tenure will end in May 2023, there are reports that the government may consider giving him an extension rather than bring a new person in the election year. The government has already amended the law enabling to extend the tenure of ED and CBI directors up to five years. The Lok Sabha polls will take place in early 2024.

 

What’s cooking?

 

Even as the Congress and AAP are blaming each other of having a ‘tacit understanding’ with the BJP, reports have emanated from Gujarat that individual candidates in select constituencies are trying to work out a deal. The AAP has realized that it has a support base in urban areas, parts of Saurashtra and tribal belt. The AAP doesn’t have too much of a presence in rural areas where the Congress has its traditional base. Therefore, some of the AAP’s candidates are working in tandem in rural areas to help the Congress. Similarly, the Congress candidates in some urban seats are playing cool. The BJP continues to be worried about a dozen seats where its rebels have refused to bow out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Delhi BJP wants Modi’s rally for MCD polls

 

 

 

The BJP leadership has deployed its might in the  Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) poll campaign to retain its 15-year-long hold. It brought in more than 100 new faces  and resorted to carpet bombing last Sunday when four BJP Chief Ministers and senior Union Ministers campaigned for party candidates. Union Home Minister Amit Shah is personally monitoring the MCD campaign and addressing meetings too in addition to his vigorous campaigning in Gujarat.

 

But local BJP leadership is keen that the Prime Minister, Modi finds time to address at least two rallies which will give invincible edge to the party. The Prime Minister had addressed a series of meetings during the Assembly polls in Delhi in 2020. Though the BJP failed to win the hearts of voters and AAP walked away with a second consecutive win. However, AAP failed to win MCD polls all these years. The BJP’s main worry is if the Congress candidates do not perform and obtain at least 3000 votes in 250 wards, it will help AAP to improve its tally.

 

All eyes are set on PM Modi whether he will find time to address a couple of rallies in Delhi.  Delhi BJP Chief Adesh Gupta has already declared that PM Modi will be the face of the party’s campaign for the civic polls. He declined to speak further. Though the PM indirectly campaigned for the party when he inaugurated 3,024 flats in Delhi for the Economically Weaker Sections earlier this month. This was part of BJP’s  Vachan Patra promising houses to the city’s slum dwellers as part of extension of the Centre’s  Jahan Jhuggi Wahin Makaan scheme. But the AAP has promised to flatten the existing landfills and make Delhi a “garbage-free city” while blaming the BJP-ruled MCD for the mess. 

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi-Dhankhar bonding Buzz 

The bonhomie between the Vice President of India, Jagdeep Dhankhar and Prime Minister Modi is keenly watched by political pundits. This chemistry is something rare never witnessed before. It is no secret that the relationship between the PM and former Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu was not cordial. Knowledgeable sources say that there was no warmth between them. But Dhankhar-Modi chemistry is being witnessed with considerable interest. Highly placed sources say that Modi drove down to the Vice President's House at 6 Maulana Azad Marg last month and was closeted with Dhankhar for nearly two hours. No official statement or photograph was released of this meeting. On the other hand, when Modi called on the President, Draupadi Murmu recently it was widely publicized and photographs were posted on twitter. But what transpired between Dhankhar and Modi during the unusually long meeting is not immediately known. It seems the PM shared his thoughts with Dhankhar on domestic and international affairs. It was only after this meeting that Dhankhar undertook two foreign visits in a short span of 15 days. Official sources say that the PM could not visit Cambodia for the ASEAN-India summit and the East Asia Summit due to his preoccupation with the G-20 Summit in Bali. Therefore, Jagdeep Dhankhar was requested to do the honours instead. Dhankhar met the world leaders at Phnom Penh including US President Joe Biden. The External Affairs Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, accompanied Dhankhar at the summit. The ASEAN leaders were expecting President Murmu to attend the Summit. But it was not to be. Dhankhar had hardly unpacked his bags but had to leave for Doha to attend the inaugural ceremony for the FIFA World Cup. This may be just a beginning for Dhankhar as the PM wants to utilize the services of the Vice President in foreign affairs more often. 

No Number 2 in Modi Govt.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah doesn’t mince words and is known for playing with a straight bat. The other day when someone complimented him for being Number two in the Modi government, he bluntly said, “There is no number two in the Modi government. No one should remain under any illusion. There is number one only and his name is PM Modi. We all work under Modi ji. We do as directed by number one.” Amit Shah may have put the record straight but in the process Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also got a signal who is presumed to be number two in the hierarchy. Technically, Rajnath Singh is considered as number two as he sits next to the Prime Minister in the Lok Sabha. Even in Order of Precedence, Rajnath Singh figures at number two in the list. But Amit Shah is considered to be number two for all practical purposes. It seems Amit Shah has drawn lessons in political history as whosoever was considered to be number two, never became number 1, be it Babu Jagjivan Ram or Arun Nehru or L K Advani.

 

Modi's search for a scientist 

 

The Modi government is known for taking more time in appointment of bureaucrats and professionals in key posts leading to abnormal delays. The PM took almost three years in filling posts in the Law Commission and other key institutions. Another key feature of the Modi government is that it doesn't hesitate to reverse orders in no time if something adverse is noticed. Modi also experimented with bringing talent from outside the service cadre at various levels to tone up the bureaucracy. But lately the process has slowed down as 'lateral entrants' are unable to deliver. Modi appointed them at the level of Secretary, joint secretary and higher levels. A couple of them (Water Resources & Aayush) were put in the driver’s seat also. But most of them are finding it difficult to override service cadre personnel. In order to shake the Public Sector Units, Modi appointed Mallika Srinivasan, a successful entrepreneur, as chairperson of Public Enterprises Selection Board (PESB) almost two years ago. The PESB is responsible for appointing chairman and managing directors of all PSUs. Though it has delivered some results, it's working at a snail's pace.

It is learnt that Modi is in desperate search of a domain expert to head the Food Safety and Standard Authority of India (FSSAI). The post fell vacant one year ago after Ms Rita Teotia (Retd IAS:1981, Gujarat cadre) completed her three years term. Modi doesn't want a bureaucrat to be chairman of this vital body and is looking for an expert scientist who has administrative capabilities as well. An additional charge has been given to an IAS officer until a suitable person for the task is found. The PMO surprised everyone when Dr M Srinivas was appointed AIIMS new Director replacing Dr Randeep Guleria. Dr Srinivas's name was not even short-listed by the selection committee. But Modi wanted a tough administrator cum a competent professional.