by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

When A whisper caused Flutter in Maharashtra

An innocuous whisper regarding Maharashtra's strong BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis caused a flutter not only in Mumbai but in the national Capital as well. A whisper on a leading social media website's one liner said that Fadnavis has been allotted a government bungalow in Delhi by the Modi government. This came out of a blue as government bungalows are allotted to Union Ministers or equivalents, bureaucrats, Judges and others. The presidents of recognized national political parties are also allotted a government bungalow. Since Devendra Fadnavis' name had earlier figured as one of the probables for the post of interim BJP chief in place of J P Nadda, many wondered why this bungalow to him as the latter's tenure has been extended until the Assembly polls in January 2025. Any decision on Nadda's successor as BJP president will be taken in due course then. No one in the Housing & Urban Development Ministry under Manoharlal Khattar was willing to say anything on the issue either. Senior BJP leaders in Delhi were not willing to say anything as this may only be known to "Top Two" in the system. The whisper died its own death. But it certainly gives a clue that something is cooking in Maharashtra which may only surface after the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand in January 2025.

Why BJP is worried about AAP in Haryana

The BJP may be slightly comfortable in Jammu & Kashmir. But when it comes to Haryana, the leadership is extremely worried. Contrary to popular perspective, the Aam aadmi Party's decision to contest all 90 seats alone in Haryana may hurt the saffron party the most. While the Jats, a majority community in the state, are fully behind the Congress leadership, Muslims are also lending their helping hand. The Congress high command is trying hard to rope in Dalit community as well by pitching Lok Sabha MP Kumari Selja as a probable face of the party. It would be interesting to mention that Selja recently met Sonia Gandhi and bitterly complained against the Hoodas. Sonia Gandhi may bring some kind of rapprochement between the two leaders so that a public discourse is avoided.  

The BJP's added worry is AAP contesting Haryana Assembly polls on its own which may cut into its vote bank in urban areas comprising middle class and other non-Jat communities. The AAP had contested Lok Sabha polls in a tactical alliance with the Congress in 2024. The Congress contested nine Lok Sabha seats while the AAP got the lone Kurukshetra seat.

The Congress won five compared to nil in 2019 and AAP drew a blank. The BJP lost five seats and its vote share also fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.11%. The Congress vote share jumped from 28.51% in 2019 to 43.67% in 2024. The AAP also got 3.94% votes despite contesting just one seat. Yet, the BJP proved its edge as it led in 44 Assembly segments out of 90 seats while the Congress won in 42 segments while AAP in four. It is argued that the AAP will cut into the BJP's non-Jat votes. Interestingly, the other two leading Jat dominated parties; the INLD and Dushyant Chautala's JJP obtained 1.74% and 0.87% votes respectively during the Lok Sabha polls. Therefore, the BJP leadership is extremely worried over retaining Haryana under changed circumstances.

Astrologers back in business

With the BJP missing the magic figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats mark in June 2024, astrologers are back in business in the Capital in a big way. The astrologers were cooling their heels for the past ten years as the BJP had been winning a clear majority and PM Modi had trounced his rivals decisively. Secondly, the PM's style of function is such that no one was able to get a clue as to what's happening in the government. But in 2024, the situation changed as non-BJP parties realized that the BJP can be defeated if the right strategy is applied. The astrologers who had virtually lost their business in the political arena are now back with a bang and can be seen more frequently at the houses of politicians of all hues. It is no secret that some of the senior leaders including ministers have their “family astrologers” for a long time and keep consulting them. One of the Rajya Sabha MPs  is reported to be an expert in astrology. A leader close to a senior minister whispered that 'Mantri ji doesn't take a step without consulting his time tested and trusted astrologer.' But all this is being done very discreetly.

Virtual or Physical !

The PM is likely to lay the foundation stone of Rs 76,000-cr Vadhavan Port project in Maharashtra when he visits the state on August 30. The Union Cabinet had approved it a couple of months ago and this will be one of the largest port projects in India. It is expected to serve as a gateway port for the upcoming India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) and International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). The port is located in the Palghar district. It now transpires that the PM is likely to do it virtually from Mumbai instead of traveling to Palghar due to paucity of time. The Fly was told that some of the farmers' groups are not in favour of the project due to a variety of reasons. The last word has not been written yet.

Modi to address 20 + rallies in J&K and Haryana

With the BJP deciding to go alone in J&K and Haryana Assembly polls, PM Modi will have to walk an extra mile. Reports emanating from the BJP headquarters here indicate that a real time assessment is underway to pinpoint specific seats and areas where the PM will be addressing rallies. The PM is likely to address at least two rallies in the Valley and minimum eight in Jammu. Similarly, in Haryana, the PM is likely to address 8-10 rallies.

The BJP is working hard to retain Haryana for the third time in a row. In 2019, it won 40 seats and entered into post-poll alliance with the JJP to form the government.

Elections to the 90 seats in J&K will be held in 3 phases -- September 18, September 25, and October 1. Results will be announced on October 4. The BJP will be contesting all 43 seats in the Jammu region and  20-27 seats in the Valley. But the BJP will focus on 10-12 seats to win in the Valley out of 47.In the remaining seats in the Valley, the BJP may lend indirect support to smaller parties and Independents. 

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP won 25 out of 37 seats in the Jammu region. After delimitation, the number went up to 43. In the Valley, the number of seats went up to 47 instead of 46. The first phase of elections are scheduled to be held in J&K on September 18, second phase on September 25 and third phase on October 1. Counting of votes will be held on October 4.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall

Modi's allies: gain some lose some

The Modi government may have put the controversial Broadcasting bill on the back burner and agreed to send the Waqf Boards bill to the Selection Committee of the Parliament. It has not been able to issue rules pertaining to the Data Protection Act fully one year after it has been passed by the Parliament in 2023 to ensure that all stakeholders are on board including certain concerns by foreign players. The government played safe considering the changed political dynamics i.e. BJP's failure to obtain a majority of its own in the June 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

But it quietly achieved a feather in its cap by ensuring the support of its key allies like the Janata Dal (U) and Telugu Desam Party on “Secular Civil Code Bill and One Nation One Poll.” Both are major allies of Modi 0.3 and without their express support, these bills may not pass muster in Parliament. Both the allies were smiling as PM Modi used the “Secular Common Civil Code” bill from the ramparts of the Red Fort in his Independence Day speech. This is the first time that the PM chose to use the word “Secular” during his tenure during the past ten years. Until now the BJP used to make fun of the word “secular” saying the opponents are “pseudo secularists.”

Another major feather in Modi's cap came when these allies also lent their full support to the One Nation One Poll issue to the government. Though it will be a long drawn process but with partners lending their support, the path will be easy. The Opposition parties are already worried that their Mps are being poached with each passing day and state governments facing threats of their survival. The double-barrel gun may make the passage of these bills a lot easier. But when it came to the issue of filling 45 posts through the Lateral Entry route, the government buckled under the pressure and withdrew the proposal.

Hoodas' sway over players

The ruling dispensation may have been rightly taking credit for the rising number of Olympic medals for our sportsperson during the Modi regime. But it is upset that the Hooda family has tremendous clout over players hailing from Haryana. It is peeved that Lok Sabha MP Deepender Singh Hooda, a son of Bhupender Singh Hooda ensured that Haryana's olympian Manu Bhakar calls on UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi even before these medal winners call on the PM or Sports Minister. But the occasion is such that the ruling dispensation cannot speak about it publicly. The BJP is also keeping a close watch after it surfaced that Haryana may witness a bitter electoral battle between Vinesh Phogat and Saina Nehwal in the upcoming state Assembly elections. Deepender Singh Hooda had already announced that his party would support Vinesh Phogat for the lone Rajya Sabha seat where bypoll is due. The seat was vacated by Hooda as he got elected to the Lok Sabha. But Vinesh Phogat did not react as the BJP is set to win the seat. However, Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini rewarded Vinesh Phogat with a cash prize of Rs four crores as promised for her splendid performance though she failed to win the medal. It also transpires that the BJP is contemplating to field former badminton champion Saina Nehwal. Interestingly, the rivalry between the two celebrities hailing from Haryana, Vinesh and Saina,  surfaced after Saina issued a statement not very palpable to Vinesh. The last word on the saga is yet to be written.

Why RSS wanted an OBC BJP Chief 

The core group of RSS' highest body, the 'Pratinidhi Sabha' to be held between August 31-September 2 in Kerala is unlikely to discuss the issue of BJP's new president anymore. Rather the RSS will focus on more key areas to strengthen the BJP's expansion program in states where it is facing more challenges. Therefore, there is no talk of appointing any 'interim president' of the BJP as well. The BJP leadership announced a detailed program of holding organisational elections so that a full-time president could be elected in early 2025. The RSS may also focus on gaining traction of the OBCs, a community which is more identified with the INDIA bloc parties. What worries the saffron parivar is that the Congress which had lost the support of the OBCs after it had opposed the implementation of the 'Mandal Commission' report in the early 90s. But Rahul Gandhi has been gaining their traction by raising issues of their interests pushing the BJP on the back foot. Even in the case of recruiting 45 Lateral Entrants to the top bureaucratic posts from the private sector, Rahul Gandhi hogged the limelight by accusing the government of ignoring the interests of the OBCs, SCs and STs in such recruitments on a large scale. It may be mentioned that the RSS had been advocating for making Shivraj Singh Chuhan  as the next BJP president to win back the OBCs. Even now there are many who feel that making Union Minister Chauhan an interim president will help the BJP electorally. But the BJP leadership decided to put this issue until the next year when an organisational poll will be held.   

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

When India readied troops to Help Hasina in 2009

What happened in Bangladesh on August 5, 2024 is not new. It was on February 25, 2009 when Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina faced the same situation and she telephoned “Kaka Babu” seeking urgent Indian help as Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) officers had rebelled and the Army had been ambivalent. She used to call Pranab Mukherjee as “Kaka Babu” who was the Finance Minister in the Manmohan Singh government. Mukherjee was holding a temporary charge of the Cabinet as the PM was on bed rest after undergoing a serious heart surgery a month ago. After seeking the PM's nod, Pranab summoned the Cabinet Committee of Security meeting and India decided to send its troops to Dhaka to ensure her safety. India stationed 1000 paratroopers at Kalaikunda Air Force Station in West Bengal and prepared a battalion to spearhead landing operations in Bangladesh by the evening of 26 February.

The trigger for students protests in 2009 was also because Sheikh Hasina, after being elected as PM through general elections, had declared to implement 30 per cent reservation in government jobs for children and grandchildren of ‘mukti-joddhas’ (freedom fighters who fought 1971 war of Independence). The students who had the backing of the BNP and Jamaat were seeking her resignation. These disclosures were made by Avinash Paliwal, a senior strategic affairs expert, in his book "India's Near East: A New History” and corroborated by senior army officers as well. It was a difficult time for India too as it had just recovered from the 26/11 attacks and the Sri Lankan civil war was in its final phase in its south. India could not afford another war in the east and Lok Sabha polls were about to be declared. But the Mission was accomplished and Hasina survived the rebellion. But 2024 turned out to be different.

Uddhav As CM! Yes, But....

When Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray was on a 3-day long visit to the national Capital, the mission was to hold free and frank discussions with the allies on the tricky issue of Chief Minister's post. While NCP Chief Sharad Pawar gave a clear hint of his preference by calling on Uddhav Thackeray at Sanjay Raut's Safdarjung Lane residence, the Congress leadership's public posture was ambivalent. But from Mumbai now, he has modified his stand saying that whosoever gets majority of seats, he or she could be the CM. 

The Maharashtra Congress leaders had conveyed to the party high command that the MVA's chief ministerial face should be decided on whoever wins the highest number of Assembly seats. The state Congress leadership hardened its stance after it emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha elections and claimed maximum number of Assembly tickets be given in the same proportion. The Sena leaders said that Mahayuti is contesting under the leadership of Eknath Shinde and that if the same strategy is adopted, it may help MVA as well.

However, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi is very clear about his strategy for Maharashtra. He indicated that the first mission of the MVA is to defeat the Mahayuti at all costs, He is not insisting that the Chief Minister will be from the Congress. Informally, Uddhav Thackeray has been told that the party is agreeable to him becoming the CM in principle. But declaring him as CM's face right now will not help the cause of the MVA. It has also been decided that MVA will hold joint rallies and work in close coordination. Uddhav Thackeray may even be declared MVA's CM face if it helped the alliance to clinch the vital edge. The MVA, according to a couple of surveys, indicated that MVA is winning 165-170 seats out of 288. The issue of giving tickets to the partners will be on the basis of winnability.

Even NDA Mps Upset with New Parliament complex

The government may be going gaga over the new Parliament House building and showcasing it as a masterpiece of architecture irrespective of dissenting voices of the opposition leaders. But a couple of ruling alliance Mps who are part of the Business Advisory Committee (BAC) have pointed out a lack of adequate number of toilets and at times face queues. It is also felt that there are no adequate arrangements for having food or light refreshments during the break hours. They wonder what will happen when the strength of the Lok Sabha will go up by at least 150-200 Mps with no adequate basic facilities. While journalists have already been complaining about restrictions put on their entry to the Central Hall of Parliament and other areas and political interactions, now Mps are joining the ranks. The entry of former Mps and other former dignitaries has already been banned due to security and other reasons. It has been pointed out that Mps' canteen is unfit for taking proper food and sitting leisurely. A political discourse even among the Mps is not possible in the new Parliament House complex. It transpires that the government is trying to find a way to cope with these issues.

RSS working hard for BJP win Assembly polls

Keeping their frosty relationship behind, the BJP and the RSS are working together with full force at their command to ensure the party's win in Assembly polls in four states. The senior leadership of the RSS is actively participating in coordination committee meetings with the BJP in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir as well.

If the RSS' joint general secretary Atul Limaye is coordinating with the BJP in Maharashtra, another Joint general secretary Arun Kumar is working in close-coordination in Haryana. He is also involved in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir as well. Arun Kumar, in any case, is handling coordination work with the BJP at the national level.

The BJP has a tough task in hand in the wake of its poor showing in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand where it could win barely eight out of 14 Lok Sabha seats. What made BJP worried is that it lost all five tribal Lok Sabha seats in the state. In Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP is in power and lost a considerable number of LS seats.

The RSS even held its national level meet in Ranchi in mid-July where BJP's senior leadership including BJP chief J P Nadda was also present. It is clear that the RSS has kept J.P. Nadda’s statement in the midst of Lok Sabha polls that the BJP was capable of deploying its own workers rather than seeking RSS workers for political work. The RSS has sent a word to its own cadre and also other frontal organisations to ensure BJP's win in these Assembly polls.

Ex-SEBI Chief Sinha joined Adani board

It is no secret that the Independent market regulator Security & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has always been in the news for wrong reasons. The current SEBI chief Madhabi Puri Buch is not the first chairperson to get embroiled in controversy. Interestingly, the allegations have come months before her three-year term is due for an extension in March 2025. The previous three chairpersons, dating back to C B Bhave in 2008, have courted some controversies, indicating the complications that come with headlining India’s $5.3-trillion stock market watchdog. But the biggest controversy was when U K Sinha became the SEBI Chief who remained in the chair on Feb 18, 2011 and served for more than six years until March 2017.

He was 1976-batch Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, and is one of the longest serving Sebi chief. However, he started on a rocky note. Within weeks of his appointment, Sebi’s whole-time member KM Abraham shot a letter to the Prime Minister alleging that the then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and his adviser Omita Paul had pressured Sinha to go soft against some high-profile corporates. There were various public interest litigations (PILs) filed challenging his appointment as Sebi boss, but most of them were dismissed by the courts. The irony was that after his retirement, he joined one of the companies owned by the Adani group on its board as Independent Director. Another Ex-SEBI Chief Ajay Tyagi who served from March 1, 2017 to February 2022 ran into controversy over his handling of the case pertaining to lapses at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), which dated back to 2010 and 2015 which turned out to be the big scandal. Ajay Tyagi also joined the company's board.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Modi Govt.'s Chinese Chakkar

Contradictory signals are emerging in the Modi dispensation on how to deal with its estranged Chinese neighbor. Until the other day, the government had firmly rejected the Chinese proposal to keep the border dispute out of the trade talks. The country's security and intelligence agencies are also averse to giving any concession to the Chinese either. India did not yield to the Chinese proposal though PM Modi and Chinese President Xi shook hands at international conferences and held some conversation as well whose details are not known as yet. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also held meetings with his Chinese counterpart. The political leadership seems keen to resolve the dispute but the Chinese are prolonging any settlement as 30 rounds of commander-level talks had been held during the last four years.

But all of a sudden, the Modi government appointed Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran batted for more FDI from China as import has been rising rapidly reflecting very high dependence on the neighbor. The survey tabled in Parliament on July 22, 2024 pointed out that India must strike a balance between importing goods and FDI from China. The government ran for a cover and distanced itself from the Economic Survey. On July 31, one of the senior-most ministers in the Modi government holding Commerce & Industry portfolio, declared in Mumbai, “There is no change in policy on Chinese investments to India and the ideas presented in the Survey are not binding.” Everyone in the country thought the matter ended with Goyal's categorical announcement. In 2020, the Modi government mandated prior approval for FDI from countries sharing land borders with India which was primarily aimed at China.

The story, however, did not end here. Three days later on August 3, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Secretary, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), under Piyush Goyal offered an olive branch to the Chinese saying, “Faster approval for FDI from China can be considered if it boosts manufacturing.” This showed the government's desperation as the import-export gap with China in 2023-24 was at a record $85 billion. Secondly, the government is also worried over developing geopolitical situation in its neighbourhood.  

BJP back to its Roots

Irrespective of having ties with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (U) in Bihar, the BJP seems to be returning to its Hindu agenda to win votes. These two allies and some of the smaller parties are somewhat considered “secular” as they get the support of the minorities. But the BJP leadership realized it has to nurse its own vote bank while the allies may take care of their own constituencies. After its failure to win a clear majority at the hustings in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the party has been seriously mulling its strategy to retain its vote bank. In its zeal to win minority votes, the BJP lost some of its own core constituency. The process of course correction has begun. A major decision to allow government servants to participate in the activities of the RSS is seen as part of this plan. The RSS has also sent a word that UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath should not be rubbed on the wrong side either. It is also looking up to Union Agriculture and Rural Development Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as potential future leader. Interestingly, the “Bulldozer” experiment of UP is now frequently seen in Delhi as well under the Lieutenant Governor. The restoration of Hindu shrines in various parts of the country is fast-tracked to keep up the pressure. Secondly, the RSS is also working out plans to celebrate its foundation day when it turns 100 years on VijayaDashmi in 2025. The RSS was founded by Dr K B Hedgewar at Nagpur in1925 on VijayaDashmi.

What's in store for BJP's Gandhis

The limelight may have been hogged by the Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. But nothing is heard about the BJP's two Gandhis lately. Ever since Varun Gandhi was denied a Lok Sabha ticket and his mother Maneka Gandhi lost her Sultanpur Lok Sabha seat, nothing is heard about them. It transpires that the party is mulling some sort of a political role for its Gandhis. Though Varun Gandhi held the key party post of general secretary for sometime. Maneka Gandhi was a Cabinet Minister in the first Modi government but was not inducted in the Modi 2.0 regime. She is reported to have met Prime Minister Modi recently while Varun Gandhi also met Union Home Minister Amit Shah. What transpired during these meetings is not immediately known. But it seems something is cooking and some role may be given when organizational changes take place or she may be given some other responsibility.

Tailpiece: Delhi is witnessing a change after the Lok Sabha verdict; Astrologers are back in business in a big way. Guess why!

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Unheard Bitter Battle Begins in BJP 

The last word on the bitter battle between the UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the BJP high command is yet to be written. The bitterness seems to have reached at a new level where there is no one-to-one conversation, it transpires.

Yogi was in Delhi to attend the NITI Aayog meeting and it was expected that he would meet the leaders of the party high command including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president J P Nadda. Since there is no communication between Yogi and the two Deputy Chief Ministers; Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, it was expected that he would seize the opportunity to restore order in his state. But nothing of the sort happened. On the contrary, a video went viral showing lack of cohesion in the party. J P Nadda had called a meeting of party Chief Ministers and Deputy Chief Ministers to be addressed by the PM and other leaders. The video showed that Yogi did not wish Union Home Minister Amit Shah with “Namaste” when he passed by. Rather, Yogi was seen welcoming Defence Minister Rajnath Singh with complete humility and courtesy. He did not wish J P Nadda either, at least the video showed. It created a stir of sorts. Yogi quietly returned to Lucknow without any one-to-one meeting with Central leaders. This is unheard of in the party with a difference and never seen before. The last word on this bitter chapter is yet to be written.

Maurya fires another Salvo

It is not as if the BJP high command had not been gunning for Yogi's head for the past quite some time. But the plan could not succeed as the “Bulldozer Baba '' has a constituency of his own not only in the state but the country as well. When the BJP ended up winning just 33 seats out of 80 in the Lok Sabha in June parliamentary polls, the high command reportedly started exploring the possibilities of getting rid of him. It saw an opportunity in the defeat in UP. It was expected that Yogi would take the moral responsibility of the defeat and offer to resign. But nothing of the sort happened. Rather, he told the party leaders that tickets were distributed to non-deserving candidates in disregard to his recommendations. In a way, he passed the buck at the door step of the high command itself. Obviously, he was in no mood to quit. Within days, Yogi's arch rival and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya started making comments in the media that “No individual is bigger than the Party” without naming Yogi. He along with Brajesh Pathak did not attend any of the meetings called by the Chief Minister either. The day Yogi returned to Lucknow, Maurya fired another salvo by holding a meeting with top police officials including DG, Police and others without informing the Chief Minister to launch a drive against corruption. Maurya doesn't hold the Home portfolio and it is held by Yogi. It is said that this is the latest googley to provoke the Chief Minister. The BJP high command's dilemma is how to make Yogi quit rather than sacking him. It is aware that many of the OBCs in UP had deserted the BJP and Dalits' support is also dwindling. The high command doesn't want to sack Yogi as it may have serious political consequences. It is in search of a winning formula in UP without Yogi and hence this delay. Until then, Maurya will keep one salvo after the other.

Rahul Gandhi having good fun & run

The BJP leadership seems to have changed its stance towards Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha which has baffled political analysts. It transpires that PM Modi has desired that Rahul Gandhi be allowed to have his say during the Budget session and the party should wait for the right opportunity to strike back. Secondly, the BJP has yet to come to terms with the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls and should devote time on evolving a right strategy to win the Assembly polls due in Maharashtra, Jharkhand & Haryana this year end. The BJP leadership is aware that its political supremacy will be re-established only after winning at least two of these three states at the hustings. It is not clear what it will do in Jammu & Kashmir. But winning two states including Maharashtra is a must. Therefore, the ruling BJP is more accommodative towards Rahul Gandhi and waiting for a big mistake by him as he is still learning the ropes.

Tailpiece: Among the battery of Union Ministers who have been inducted in the NITI Aayog, the only relevant missing name is of Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. Many wonder Why!