by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Untold story of Nitin Nabin making the Cut

Speculation is rife in BJP circles over how a relatively little-known leader like Nitin Nabin emerged as the party’s new working president—seemingly out of the blue. Multiple versions are doing the rounds in Delhi.

One account suggests that BJP president J P Nadda shortlisted Nabin’s name when Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked for suitable options. The logic was straightforward: Nabin was born and educated in Bihar and had a fair grasp of the state’s political terrain. Another, more intriguing, whisper is that Modi himself sought a list of BJP ministers across states in the 45–50 age bracket—leaders seen as performers, ideologically rooted in the RSS, and ready for bigger organisational responsibility.

Amid these competing narratives, one striking detail has surfaced from Chhattisgarh. It turns out that the responsibility of coordinating and executing the entire exercise was entrusted by Modi to his most trusted lieutenant, Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The reason is revealing. Nitin Nabin had earlier worked under Shah during the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, a phase during which a rapport was forged. That connection appears to have mattered.

Recently, Shah traveled to Raipur and sent word to Nabin in Patna to meet him personally. Nabin rushed to Raipur, where the meeting with Shah turned into a detailed, interactive conversation. After some time, Shah asked him to meet Nadda and BJP general secretary (organization) B L Santosh. What followed later is just history. Party insiders say it is vintage Modi: quiet screening, tight control, and a final decision that leaves even the chosen candidate stunned.

The Self-Inflicted Decline of Mayawati’s BSP

The year saw the decline and fall of the BSP which was at its zenith in 2007. The BSP was not merely a Dalit party but a national disruptor. A full majority in Uttar Pradesh turned Mayawati into a symbol of social justice politics that could command power, not just protest. Two years later, the BSP emerged as India’s third-largest party by vote share, winning 21 Lok Sabha seats.

The fall since has been relentless—and self-inflicted. Mayawati’s insistence on political isolation, her distrust of alliances, and her centralised command structure steadily hollowed out the party. While rivals adapted to coalition politics, the BSP withdrew into a rigid, top-down shell. Cadres thinned, second-rung leadership vanished, and organisational depth collapsed. Mayawati is watching with growing unease as the Congress gains traction among Dalit voters after the BSP failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2024, and its vote share in UP plunged to just 9.39% — less than half of what it secured in 2019. Even the BJP started getting Dalit votes in large chunks.

But the BSP’s core Jatav Dalit vote in UP remains largely intact. However, votes without alliances no longer convert into seats in a polarised, first-past-the-post system. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections laid this bare: 2.07% vote share, zero MPs, and a fall out of national relevance. With its last Rajya Sabha tenure ending soon and no revival strategy in sight, the BSP now stands on the brink of parliamentary extinction. Mayawati’s greatest political achievement may also be her most enduring undoing.

Myth of Merit Busted as OBC Students Outperform

The idea that caste-based reservations undermine academic merit has taken a hit — not from politics, but from hard data. In an unexpected trend from this year’s Class XII board results, students from the Other Backward Classes (OBC) have surpassed their general category counterparts in at least eight state school boards, including those of  Maharashtra, Bengal, Rajasthan, and Jharkhand.

The figures come from the Joint Seat Allocation Authority (JoSAA), which compiles school board scores to determine eligibility for admissions to IITs and NITs. One of the conditions for entry into these institutes is being in the top 20 percentile of a board or scoring at least 75%. JoSAA’s latest data, covering 22 state boards along with CBSE and the Council for Indian School Certificate Examination (CISCE), show that the cutoff scores for the top 20 percentile among non-creamy layer OBC students were higher than for general category students across several boards.

Even under the Nagaland board, Scheduled Caste students outperformed general category students, while Scheduled Tribe students matched general-category performance under the Goa board.  As the reservation debate resurfaces periodically, these board exam trends may serve as a quiet but powerful counter to those who still view affirmative action as an obstacle to excellence.

Congress’ Big Days, Bigger Loose Cannons

Just when the Congress was trying to project unity and renewed purpose on its foundation day, veteran leader Digvijaya Singh ensured the spotlight shifted elsewhere. Instead of the party’s legacy, message and future road map dominating headlines, it was Singh’s controversial remarks that ended up stealing the show. The timing could not have been worse. The foundation day event was punctured handing political rivals easy ammunition.

For the Congress, this was an all-too-familiar script. Not long ago, Shashi Tharoor’s public remarks had similarly unsettled the party. No disciplinary action followed—only hurried clarifications and a collective attempt to move on.

The pattern is revealing. Senior leaders speak out of turn, headlines are generated, and the party is left red-faced. Yet consequences remain elusive. The high command appears reluctant to act against heavyweight figures, wary of provoking internal backlash or feeding a narrative of intolerance.

The result is a recurring problem for the Congress: moments meant to build momentum are repeatedly overshadowed by self-inflicted controversies. Digvijaya Singh may escape formal action, just as Tharoor did earlier, but the damage is already done. On a day meant to celebrate the party’s foundation, Congress once again found itself explaining itself—rather than setting the agenda.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

The Month Ministers Dread

Come December, and anxiety — not winter — settles over the corridors of power. In the Modi era, asking for a holiday has become one of the most delicate exercises for Union ministers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not taken a single declared vacation since assuming office in 2014. As Home Minister Amit Shah once put it, “Modiji has not taken a single day of leave or vacation since assuming office in 2001.” Birthdays, festivals and personal milestones are routinely folded into official events, inspections or political messaging. Over time, this relentless personal example has hardened into an unspoken code of conduct for the Council of Ministers — a norm that has endured for over a decade.

The pattern visibly hardened ahead of the 2017 Cabinet reshuffle. Media reports then noted that internal assessments weighed not just output, but presence in Delhi and availability to the Prime Minister’s Office. Several ministers perceived as low-profile or frequently absent quietly exited the government.

That legacy looms large every December. Many ministers have children settled or studying overseas. Year-end reunions are planned — then postponed. Travel is shortened, clubbed with official engagements, or quietly dropped altogether. Permissions, when sought, are routed discreetly, often through intermediaries rather than direct requests.

In private, ministers joke — half nervously — that December is the most “dangerous” month on the calendar. When the Prime Minister does not take a holiday, the unstated expectation is that no one else should either.

There are, of course, exceptions — and the Prime Minister can be lenient. A senior Union minister was once allowed a three-day leave to attend his son’s graduation abroad. Even this December, a couple of ministers count themselves lucky. But such dispensations are rare, closely calibrated, and never taken for granted.

Why did Modi choose “Nitin” Nabin as BJP Chief ?

Various theories are being propounded as to why Prime Minister Modi picked up 45 year old Nitin Nabin as the BJP's new working president. The most credible was narrated by an insider. Modi threw up a question at a close door meeting of his confidants- Had anybody heard of Nitin Gadkari ji's name before he became the BJP Chief in 2010? Sources say those present started looking at each other and didn't realise the importance of the question and kept quiet. The PM said that Nitin ji was a minister in Maharashtra government before the party decided to undertake a generational shift and brought him to Delhi to make him party chief. He was the youngest chief at the age of 52 years.

PM Modi chose his “Nitin” Nabin as BJP working president who is seven year younger. If Advani era choice was Nitin Gadkari, Modi brought his Nitin who is also a minister in Bihar government and that too of Roads and PWD. So Modi wrote another history in the BJP.

But this generational shift has worried many seniors in the government and the party. They may face the same heat which almost all senior leaders faced after Gadkari took over and Modi came to power in 2014. Some were packed to Margdarshak Mandal while others went home and a few lucky ones made governors. 

BJP Eyes ‘Bihar Model’ for Bengal: Nitish Star Campaigner

After its surprise landslide win in Bihar, the BJP is preparing to export the same template to West Bengal in 2026 — a full-throated NDA versus Trinamool battle. And in a striking political crossover, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is set to be the alliance’s star campaigner in Bengal. Top BJP strategists say the Bihar experiment has convinced the party that a broad, non-ideological, stability-first coalition can puncture Mamata Banerjee’s entrenched but fraying social base. The emerging slogan: “NDA’s Nyay vs. Mamata’s jungle raj.”

Nitish’s presence is the BJP’s biggest gamble — and potentially its biggest asset. His image as a sober administrator and “coalition craftsman” contrasts sharply with Mamata’s projection of impulsive, personality-driven politics. Bengal’s sizable migrant labour population from Bihar and eastern UP is another factor: BJP believes Nitish’s appeal travels with them. He will bring women voters in the NDA kitty as well irrespective of the recent controversy. Nitish will headline rallies in districts with high migrant concentration — while the BJP’s own local face deficit will be filled by an NDA chorus of leaders from Bihar, Assam, and Uttar Pradesh. For the BJP, Bengal has resisted Modi’s electoral sweep. With Nitish on stage, the party is betting that Bengal’s voters may be ready to trade Mamata’s charisma for coalition stability. Will the gamble pay off ?

Whose Couplet is this!

An irony surfaced again in the just concluded Winter session of Parliament when Union Law Minister Arjun Meghwal recited a couplet attributing it to Ghalib while advising the Congress:

“All his life, Ghalib made the same mistake—

the dust was on his own face, yet he kept cleaning the mirror.”

But the problem is simple: the verse is not by Ghalib. And this was not the first time. In June 2019 too, PM Modi had used the same couplet to target the Congress. At the time, lyricist and poet Javed Akhtar publicly pointed out on social media that the verse being cited as Ghalib’s was not his at all. He also noted that both lines fail to meet the basic standards of classical Urdu prosody. The couplet does not appear anywhere in Ghalib’s Diwan either. Some references attribute it to Asar Lakhnavi, but social media certified it as “Ghalib.”

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi’s Dream, Congress’s Nightmare

After the Bihar win, Narendra Modi confidently declared that the Congress “will split.” It wasn’t a casual post-poll boast. Ever since he arrived in Delhi in 2014, Modi has worked steadily to engineer a rupture in the Grand Old Party. Nearly 13 Congress Chief Ministers or senior satraps — including Ashok Chavan, Capt. Amarinder Singh, S.M. Krishna, Digambar Kamat, Pema Khandu, Narayan Rane, N. Biren Singh and Jagdambika Pal — crossed over to the BJP. At one point,  Ghulam Nabi Azad came perilously close to triggering an actual split, but the move fizzled out and he formed his own party. 

Today, the vulnerabilities are again visible. State leaders are restless after repeated defeats, and the old guard is frustrated with Rahul Gandhi’s personality-driven style and his heavy reliance on a tightly controlled “core political group.” Ironically, many members of Rahul’s original team — Jyotiraditya Scindia, R.P.N. Singh, Jitin Prasada, Sushmita Dev and others — have already defected. His current loyalists — Ajay Maken, Randeep Surjewala, Deepender Hooda, Sachin Pilot, Gaurav Gogoi, Bhupen Borah — have not been able to restore confidence inside the party.

The new “core” — Sachin Rao, Krishna Allavaru, Harshavardhan Sapkal, Meenakshi Natarajan and others — has failed to deliver. Rahul’s choices in states such as Ajay Rai (UP), Harshavardhan Sapkal (Maharashtra) and Sunny Joseph (Kerala) have left leaders wondering and sulking. The BJP’s calibrated mix of ED pressure and soft landings in saffron ranks keeps the cracks widening. Can the Congress really split now? The answer lies in arithmetic and optics. The BJP knows its post-2024 dip has narrowed the electoral gap, and a fractured Congress is the surest way to block any national challenge before 2029. Yet a formal split is not inevitable. That leaves Rahul Gandhi at a decisive crossroads. Unless he recalibrates the organization and shares real power, Modi’s prophecy may well become political reality.

The Lucky Elite

Governors and Lieutenant Governors typically serve five and three years respectively, at the President's pleasure—but in the Modi era, a select "lucky" few shatter these norms, racking up tenures far beyond convention through single stints or job-hopping across states.

Acharya Devvrat reigns supreme as the Modi administration's ironman Governor, clocking over a decade in office: Himachal Pradesh from August 2015 to July 2019, then Gujarat since July 22, 2019—now with Maharashtra's extra crown after C.P. Radhakrishnan's VP upgrade. Anandiben Patel's marathon run kicked off in Madhya Pradesh (January 2018), then Uttar Pradesh since July 29, 2019, hitting 5 years and 170 days plus as UP's longest-ever Governor. Arif Mohammed Khan (Kerala since September 6, 2019, now Bihar) and P.S. Sreedharan Pillai (Mizoram October 2019, now Goa) both top six years of unbroken power.

Mangubhai Chhaganbhai Patel grips Madhya Pradesh since July 8, 2021, leveraging his Gujarat Assembly Speaker cred for staying power. Lieutenant Governor stars shine bright too: Admiral (Retd.) Devendra Kumar Joshi rules Andaman & Nicobar for 6+ years; Praful Patel dominates Dadra & Nagar Haveli-Daman & Diu plus Lakshadweep for 8; Manoj Sinha just breached five years in Jammu & Kashmir; Ajay Bhalla helms Manipur with Nagaland's bonus portfolio. These super-tenured appointees bring to light a juicy Modi playbook twist: loyalty pays dividends in extended luxury gigs, defying tradition amid political chess.

A Sunday Budget? Govt’s Big February 1 Dilemma

The pre-Budget buzz has begun in North Block, but an unusual cloud hangs low over the 2026 Union Budget: will there even be a February 1 Budget this time? The date that has become a Narendra Modi–era ritual now poses a bureaucratic headache — because February 1, 2026, is a Sunday. Since Arun Jaitley rewrote Budget tradition in 2017, February 1 has been sacrosanct. But Parliament doesn’t sit on Sundays, government offices stay shut, and global markets are closed. Should the Finance Minister walk into Parliament on a locked-down Sunday — or push the Budget to February 2?

Adding a twist, Guru Ravidas Jayanti also falls on February 1, but the Centre has notified it as a restricted holiday, meaning offices can remain open. So the religious-calendar hurdle is minor. The real question is: will the Modi government break its own February 1 streak?

The Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs is expected to announce the Budget Session schedule in early January. Bureaucrats whisper that either North Block or Parliamentary Affairs may soon step in with a clarification. History suggests the government could brazen it out. Budgets have been presented on Saturdays — even on a Sunday in 1999. But with no official word yet, Delhi’s power corridors are abuzz: Is India heading for its first Sunday Budget in the Modi era — or a rare date shift?

Akhilesh Yadav’s Big Moment

The Mahagathbandhan may have lost Bihar and Rahul Gandhi may have been facing the wrath of the INDIA bloc parties once again. But in contrast, the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is drawing unusually positive attention as Akhilesh campaigned in helicopters across the state for many days though SP was not given a single seat in Bihar. His role in keeping the INDIA bloc together is also being appreciated. Even in Haryana, the Congress did not give any seat to SP and yet Akhilesh, unlike the Aam Aadmi Party, did not put up candidates to weaken the Congress.
It is learnt that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin wants Akhilesh to campaign in Tamil Nadu for the “secular-progressive alliance although the Yadav community is not influential there —as in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The Great Corporate Cleanse at massive Rs 7.7 lakh crores  cost, 

Bad Loans Vanish + massive incentives 

In just five years, if India’s public sector banks have wiped out Rs 3,18,324 crore of toxic loans belonging to large industries off their books, the corporates quietly pocketed another Rs. 4,53,329 crores in tax incentives – a staggering combined bonanza of over Rs 7.7 lakh crore.

According to official data available, the peak of the write-off was in 2020-21 when banks written off a jaw-dropping Rs 90,641 crore in a single year. Year after year, this is happening, Rs 57,541 crore (2021-22), Rs 72,108 crore (2022-23), Rs 58,359 crore (2023-24). Even during the financial year 2024-25, Rs 39,675 crore (provisional) has disappeared from balance sheets.

The Government insists these are mere “technical write-offs” – not waivers. Borrowers remain liable, and banks continue chasing dues through courts, SARFAESI, and IBC. Yet, the data shows that in the best year so far (2024-25), banks managed to recover only 46.64% of the amount written off during that very year. In 2020-21, the recovery rate dropped to a dismal 18.58%, 

Meanwhile, corporate tax breaks flowed like clockwork. Rs 94,110 crore (2019-20), Rs. 75,218 crore (2020-21), Rs 96,892 crore (2021-22), Rs 88,109 crore (2022-23), and a fresh high of 98,999 crore in 2023-24, almost 1 lakh crore in a single year handed back to corporate through various deductions and exemptions.

The Ministry of Finance points to brighter spots, gross NPAs of public sector banks have crashed from 9.11% in March 2021 to a provisional 2.58% in March 2025, and fresh bad loans are at a record low. But the sheer scale of loans vanishing from books, coupled with near Rs 1 lakh crore annual tax gifts, has reignited questions about who ultimately pays the price when large borrowers default in thousands of crores while small farmers and home-loan borrowers face attachment orders for defaults running into lakhs.

The Ministry says write-offs do not benefit the borrower, however, the numbers, , tell a different story on the ground.

Loans written-off by Public Sector Banks
Year	Amount *
2020-21	90,641
2021-22	57,541
2022-23	72,108
2023-24	58,359
2024-25#	39,675
* Amounts in crore Rs.
# Provisional

Major Tax Incentives for Corporate Taxpayers
Year	Amount*
2019-20	94,109.83
2020-21	75,218.02
2021-22	96,892.39
2022-23	88,109.27
2023-24	98,999.57
* Amounts in crore Rs.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The Importance of being Shashi Tharoor

The BJP’s Kerala project has long lacked a catalytic figure—someone with popular appeal, administrative credibility, and cross-community acceptance. In Assam, that role was played by Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose defection from the Congress not only transformed the BJP’s electoral fortunes but also reconfigured the political landscape of the entire Northeast. Increasingly, BJP strategists wonder: Could Shashi Tharoor play a similar role in Kerala?

The question gains traction as the BJP’s Kerala graph shows unmistakable upward movement. From 11.40% in the 2021 Assembly polls to a combined NDA vote share of 19.24% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—and a historic win in Thrissur—the party has moved from symbolic presence to meaningful foothold. It emerged a strong second in Thiruvananthapuram with 37.12%, posted impressive numbers in seven seats. With Rajeev Chandrasekhar taking charge as state president in 2025, the party is readying for the next leap. 

This is where Tharoor fits in. Among Kerala’s youth and women, his popularity rivals, and often exceeds, that of local political heavyweights. Unlike most Congress leaders, his appeal cuts across religion and class lines, especially in urban constituencies and among first-time voters. If Sarma gave the BJP ideological flexibility and administrative muscle in Assam, Tharoor could provide intellectual legitimacy, cosmopolitan appeal, and cross-community access in Kerala—a state where cultural sophistication matters as much as political messaging.

For the BJP, Tharoor represents more than a high-profile defection; he is the potential “Assam moment” for Kerala.  And with the state heading into December panchayat polls—where the BJP currently controls just 1,550 of 65,000 panchayats—the party is desperate for a transformative figure. The parallels with Sarma are not perfect—but the political possibilities are too powerful to ignore.

New BJP Chief in the New Year !

When Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the BJP would elect its new national president after the Bihar polls, it was widely assumed the transition would be wrapped up before year-end. That timeline has quietly slipped, so it seems. The party is now working on its own slow, methodical schedule, and the election may take place only in January 2026. Organizational elections in 29 states have already been completed, with UP, Karnataka and a couple of others still pending. These remaining units will be wrapped up in the next four to six weeks, clearing the deck for the national election.

Complicating the calendar is the month-long Kharmas—an inauspicious period from December 14, during which no major appointments are made. As a result, the new president can only be elected after January 14 but before the Budget Session begins January end. The BJP high command is keen not to push the exercise any further. Several names are in circulation for the top post like Dharmendra Pradhan, Bhupender Yadav, Manohar Lal Khattar, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. But a strong argument is being made that if the BJP wants deeper traction among Dalit voters, the time has come to elevate a leader from the community. In this context, UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya is being viewed as a serious contender. The first person from the Dalit community to serve as party president was Bangaru Laxman and he had to quit unceremoniously. Therefore, the BJP may make an attempt after 25 years.

Bhagwat Steps In to Repair BJP's Dalit Connect

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has quietly taken charge of the BJP’s Dalit outreach after the party’s setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For months, Sangh insiders say Bhagwat had been signaling the need to “win back Dalit confidence” and hands-on intervention. Bhagwat spent five days in Varanasi recently, PM Modi’s constituency. He traveled to a Kabir ashram in Lakhimpur, held closed-door interactions with Dalit followers, and met local leaders who have been warning the Sangh about growing alienation among marginalized communities.

At a broader level, Bhagwat has matched visits with pointed speeches, urging Hindu society to rise above caste divisions. He has promoted collective celebration of festivals like Valmiki Jayanti, Ravidas Jayanti, and called for inclusivity in public places—temples, water wells, and crematoriums—often dominated by higher castes. Bhagwat’s annual Vijayadashami address in 2024 emphasized friendship across caste lines. The RSS runs several dedicated programs under its affiliate, Samajik Samrasta Manch, which focus on Dalit empowerment through education, healthcare, and vocational training. Initiatives such as inter-caste meals (Samajik Samrasta Bhoj).

Bhagwat has now issued firm instructions to RSS pracharaks: conduct dedicated outreach camps in Dalit-dominated districts, engage with community leaders. The Sangh is also mapping constituencies where Dalit disenchantment hurt the BJP most, especially in UP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Bhagwat’s intervention is being read within the BJP as a clear message—Dalit consolidation cannot be taken for granted, and the road to 2029 in Parliament will require course correction, not complacency.

MHA Faces Its Own Command Crisis After SC Blow

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) faces renewed pressure to implement long-pending cadre reforms in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) after the Supreme Court rejected its review plea on the contentious issue of IPS deputations. The SC dismissed the MHA’s petition challenging the May 23 verdict that ordered the Centre to complete cadre reviews in all CAPFs—CRPF, BSF, CISF, ITBP, and SSB—within six months. The court said no case was made for reconsideration and refused to grant an open hearing.

The earlier ruling had directed a gradual reduction in IPS deputation posts within two years, citing stagnation and morale issues among CAPF cadre officers who serve under “demanding conditions.” The court also asked the Department of Personnel and Training to act within three months of receiving MHA’s compliance report. With the review plea dismissed, the MHA must now walk a political and administrative tightrope—between IPS dominance and the CAPF cadre’s growing demand for upward mobility. Insiders say Home Minister Amit Shah is not the one to take things lying down and may try to find a way to overcome the SC setback.