by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

"CPR: Modi’s Quiet Loyalist or RSS’s Pick?"

For weeks, Delhi’s political grapevine has been buzzing with claims that BJP’s Vice-Presidential nominee, C.P. Radhakrishnan (CPR), is not close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Critics argue that after losing the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Coimbatore, CPR was pushed into political wilderness and that his nomination was an RSS-driven move. The logic: Modi, having burnt his fingers by elevating ‘outsiders’ like Jagdeep Dhankhar and Satyapal Malik, now prefers Sangh insiders to placate the RSS. His Independence Day speech, where he praised the RSS for over a minute, was seen as a clear signal of this shift.

But such commentary ignores CPR’s history. Back in 2002, when Modi faced intense criticism post-Gujarat riots, CPR was perhaps the only BJP state president outside Gujarat to organise a massive rally in Modi’s support at Coimbatore. Then Tamil Nadu BJP chief, he defied the party’s moderate faction and the Vajpayee government’s discomfort to back Modi publicly. Far from being a DMK sympathiser, CPR took on Tamil Nadu CM M.K. Stalin’s son Udayanidhi, warning that those attacking Hindu traditions “will perish by their own acts” – a statement made as Jharkhand Governor. His nomination also strategically placates the Gounder community, upset when K. Annamalai was replaced by Maravar leader Nainar Nagendran. With Gounders forming AIADMK’s core support base, BJP hopes CPR’s elevation will cement its foothold in Tamil Nadu.

As Coir Board chief (2016-2020) and as an active Governor who visited all 24 districts of Jharkhand in just four months, CPR was never out of action. Far from a political outsider, he might be Modi’s quiet loyalist – with RSS blessings in tow.

Women Power Set to Surge in Modi Cabinet

Big Reshuffle, Bigger Role for Women, and Political Balancing Ahead

The Modi government is preparing for a major expansion and reshuffle of the Union Council of Ministers, with a significant focus on boosting women’s representation. The move is expected soon after the RSS-BJP coordination meeting in Jodhpur on September 5 and the Vice-Presidential election on September 9.

At present, only seven women feature in the 72-member council—less than 10% representation. Within Parliament, BJP has 30 women MPs in the Lok Sabha and 19 in the Rajya Sabha, a tally that is also well below the forthcoming benchmark. The BJP has 240 Mps in the Lok Sabha and 100 in the Rajya Sabha. With the Women’s Reservation Act mandating one-third of all seats for women in the 2029 general elections, the government is keen to signal a shift now.

Party strategists indicate that new ministerial faces could be drawn from Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam, where Assembly elections are approaching. Caste calculations will also weigh heavily, particularly in Bihar, where sections of the Rajput and Kushwaha communities feel under-represented. Alongside the cabinet rejig, the appointment of a new BJP president and gubernatorial changes are expected soon, signalling a larger political reset. For Modi, expanding “women power” in the cabinet is more than optics—it’s a calculated move to blend representation, caste balance, and election strategy well ahead of 2029.

Modi Tweaks policy but Babus not amused

Facing a severe shortage of IAS officers at the Centre, the Modi government hit upon a new plan and revised the empanelment policy itself to widen the pool of eligible officers. A new directive was issued under which IAS officers from the 2010 batch onwards were allowed to qualify for joint secretary (JS) posts even if they’ve served at least two years at the under-secretary level — a post often shunned due to limited perks and authority. This came as a shock as PM Modi's 2020 policy mandated that only those who had served as deputy secretaries or directors for two years at the Centre could be empanelled as JS. This move was aimed at encouraging early deputation. However, that too failed to solve the crunch — with just 442 IAS officers working at the Centre as of 2023 against a sanctioned strength of 1,469.

Despite the policy push, ground realities persist. “No one wants to leave a powerful District Magistrate post to become an under-secretary in Delhi,” said an IAS officer. Officers say the system unfairly penalises them. “We’re being punished for decisions we don’t control,” said one official. Data shows only 16 of 119 officers from the 2009 batch were empanelled, compared to nearly half of the 2005-08 batches. Some view the move as part of the Centre’s broader effort to assert more control over All India Services. A 2022 proposal to amend cadre rules and override states in deputation matters was shelved after protests. While the tweak aims to restore the Centre’s appeal among IAS officers, many remain unconvinced. Without structural changes and better incentives, the shortage — and the Centre-state tug-of-war — continues.

Agniveer Policy May See Major Shift

The government is likely to revise the Agnipath scheme as the first batch of Agniveers nears completion of its four-year tenure. Under current rules, only 25% of them are to be absorbed permanently in the armed forces, while the rest retire. Sources indicate the government may increase this percentage, allowing a larger number of Agniveers to continue in service. The rethink comes after recent security operations, where the need for a stronger and more experienced force has been felt.

The states and paramilitary forces have already offered priority to retiring Agniveers, but a policy change within the Army itself would be a big relief for thousands of youth. If cleared, the decision could silence criticism that the scheme leaves most recruits jobless after four years. Officials suggest an announcement may come before the first batch formally retires.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the Wall 

Harish Gupta

Modi may reshuffle his pack

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contemplating a reshuffle of his council of ministers in a couple of weeks. With the parliament session coming to an end and NDA candidate C P Radhakrishnan's win for the Vice President post a certainty, the reshuffle is reported to be taking a definite shape. It is also becoming clear that the BJP will soon have a new party president in place of J P Nadda and this may also make reshuffle inevitable.

Some of the allies, notably, the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena want a full Cabinet position in the Modi government. With Bihar elections around the corner, any Cabinet reshuffle is also likely to see the induction of Bihar allies such as Upendra Kushwaha into the Union Cabinet. The PM even tinker with some key ministries and bring new faces, say some insiders. Normally, Modi undertakes major exercise only after a couple of years of being swearing-in-ceremony after the hustings. But he wants new talent with out-of-box thinking to take new initiatives in view of global challenges. There may be a couple of surprises in store.

Rudy’s Coup: Old Guard Floors New Order

The Constitution Club election in Delhi has set off ripples in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, unsettling the BJP’s Rajput vote bank. Rajiv Pratap Rudy’s emphatic win over former MP and ex-Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan was more than a club contest—it was seen as “old BJP” besting the “new order.” In Bihar, the fallout is sharper. Despite the NDA sweeping 31 Lok Sabha seats, not a single Rajput MP from Bihar—or even neighbouring Jharkhand—has been made a Union Minister. Rudy’s victory has made him a community icon, yet insiders say it has dimmed his own cabinet prospects. Talk of a Union cabinet expansion in the immediate future, where names like Radha Mohan Singh, Rudy, and Janardan Singh Sigriwal figured prominently, has fizzled out.

Sensing neglect, many Rajputs are drifting toward the Mahagathbandhan. The BJP high command is said to be weighing a “big offer” to soothe tempers. With caste equations already fragile and Rajput–Kushwaha tensions simmering, the NDA risks losing ground in nearly a third of Bihar if the resentment deepens. In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, political tremors are no less. Speculation over attempts to “unseat” CM Yogi Adityanath has fuelled unease among Thakurs. Recently, 40 Rajput MLAs and MLCs—including BJP men, SP defectors and independents—met to float a new forum, “Kurumanch Parivar.” Though presented as social, its political undertone was evident. Yogi himself has added to the intrigue. He openly backed Rudy, a Bihar Thakur, over Balyan, UP’s own Rajput face. Days later, he met Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh after 31 months—a symbolic, politically loaded gesture.

The message is unmistakable: Rudy’s small Delhi win has triggered big caste calculations in Bihar and UP. For the BJP, placating restless Thakurs has become both urgent and unavoidable.

Rahul-Kharge Absence spoke louder than protest

On Independence Day, two of Congress’s tallest leaders—Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge—were missing from the Red Fort ceremony. Instead, they unfurled the tricolor at the party HQ, with Rahul’s rain-soaked pictures going viral. But their absence from the national stage handed the BJP a political bonus.

The buzz is that Rahul deliberately stayed away. Last year, as Leader of Opposition, he was pushed to the second-last row—seen in Congress circles as an “insult.” This time, he chose to avoid a repeat. But in doing so, Rahul and Kharge lost the chance to corner the government. Had they attended and been sidelined again, Congress could have turned it into a “double humiliation” narrative.

Instead, the optics now suggest Gandhi privilege—that they won’t settle for anything less than the front row. It is worth noting that Sonia Gandhi enjoys the front row privilege due to a 2004 protocol change, when the UPA government granted the status of “former Prime Minister’s spouse” to the widow of Rajiv Gandhi. In politics, missed moments hurt more than insults. And Congress just missed one.

Shringla’s Next Act: From Envoy to Hill Hope

Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s suave former foreign secretary, has traded diplomacy for politics with his nomination to the Rajya Sabha—widely seen as the BJP’s first step in grooming him for a bigger role. A son of Darjeeling, Shringla was once tipped to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha polls but lost out to sitting MP Raju Bista. Unlike most bureaucrats denied a ticket, he didn’t vanish. Instead, he kept his local connect alive—launching youth programmes, addressing tea garden livelihood issues, and setting up a UPSC coaching centre with the GTA.

In Delhi, his nomination is being read as the BJP’s plan to shape a 2029 candidate—one unburdened by the “Gorkhaland baggage” that shadows Bista. In the hills, it has rekindled hopes that long-pending promises—tribal status for 11 Gorkha groups and a “permanent political solution”—may finally get attention. PM Modi has hailed him as a “strategic thinker.” For now, Shringla enters Parliament as a nominated MP—but his political script is clearly unfinished, with Darjeeling as the launchpad.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai?

How China Chokes Fertilizers Supply to India

China has not only cut exports of critical minerals to India but has also sharply reduced fertiliser shipments, creating shortages for Indian farmers.

Official figures show that urea imports from China plunged to less than one lakh metric tonnes in 2024-25, compared to 18.65 lakh tonnes in 2023-24. This, even as India’s urea consumption rose from 357.80 lakh tonnes to 387.92 lakh tonnes, while domestic production slipped from 314.09 to 306.67 lakh tonnes. Overall urea imports also declined from 71.04 lakh tonnes to 56.46 lakh tonnes.

The story was similar for Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP). Chinese exports to India dropped from 22.28 lakh tons in 2023-24 to just 8.47 lakh tonnes in 2024-25. Meanwhile, India’s own DAP production fell from 43 lakh tonnes to 37.72 lakh tonnes, pushing down consumption from 109.72 to 96.29 lakh tonnes.

In a statement to the Rajya Sabha, the government acknowledged that India, being resource-scarce, cannot meet its fertilizer demand domestically and must rely on imports. Asked whether Beijing’s move was linked to geopolitics, the government pointed to China’s amended export rules — expanding the list of goods requiring mandatory inspection to include 29 fertiliser-related products, including DAP.

The squeeze, along with other supply pressures, prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to use his Independence Day address to call for atma-nirbharta (self-reliance) in fertiliser production and express concern over heavy import dependence.

India may bring the issue to the notice of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India beginning today.  

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta

Pawar’s Mystery Men: The Ghosts Who Offered to ‘Fix’ Maha Polls

In a revelation that has set Delhi’s political corridors abuzz, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has claimed that two unknown men approached him ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly elections with an audacious promise — “guaranteeing” the Opposition 160 out of 288 seats. Their pitch? They could “manage” the Electronic Voting Machines. The claim instantly evoked déjà vu from the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when a similar duo reportedly approached a senior Congress minister with an EVM-tweaking offer. The Congress spurned the bait, and the tale — whispered in political backrooms — suggested the pair then knocked on the BJP’s door. Nothing was proven as there were no allegations then, and the episode faded into the shadows.

Then came January 2019, when London hosted a bizarre press conference by self-proclaimed Indian cyber expert Syed Shuja, who alleged that the 2014 elections were “rigged” and linked the murders of Gopinath Munde and journalist Gauri Lankesh to an EVM conspiracy. Former Law Minister Kapil Sibal’s surprise presence embarrassed the Congress, which quickly distanced itself, even as it intensified its campaign against EVMs. Pawar, notably, stayed silent. 

Until now.

Pawar says he introduced the mysterious duo to Rahul Gandhi, but both leaders declined the “offer”, declaring, “This is not our way.” Intriguingly, Pawar claims he never kept their contact details — “I didn’t give importance to their claims.” Yet his disclosure dovetails neatly with Rahul’s recent “vote theft” charge and calls for an Election Commission probe. With Pawar confirming that the men met Rahul “at his instance”, the episode could now slip out of the political bazaar and into the realm of a criminal investigation. The only snag? The trail is as cold as the mystery men who walked in, made their pitch — and vanished.

Trump’s Tariffs on India: A Diplomatic Whodunit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not the first Indian leader to face turbulence with Washington. Nehru’s early warmth with the U.S. Cooled due to his fad for non-aligned policy and changed after the 1962 war with China. Indira Gandhi saw the frostiest spell in 1971 when Richard Nixon cold-shouldered India, prompting her to sign a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union. Sanctions followed her 1974 nuclear test, a fate Atal Bihari Vajpayee also faced after Pokhran-II in 1998. Manmohan Singh reversed the chill, riding on George W. Bush’s policy shift later to make India a strategic partner.

Modi built on that legacy. During Trump 1.0 (2016–2020), the rapport appeared genuine. Trump called Modi “my best friend” and basked in the spectacle of “Howdy, Modi.” Which is why Trump 2.0’s sudden decision to single out India with 50% tariffs feels puzzling.

Two incidents are whispered about in diplomatic circles. First, Modi’s quiet withdrawal from a planned handshake with Trump during the 2024 U.S. campaign, choosing strict neutrality. Second, India’s public dismissal of Trump’s claim — repeated over two dozen times — that he brokered the Indo-Pak ceasefire. New Delhi insisted no outsider played a role.

Why the shift from “best friends” to tariff target? Was it calculated policy, personal pique, or a deeper strategic signal? The answer is elusive. Unlike past Indo-U.S. spats rooted in defence or trade, this rupture carries no obvious economic logic. For now, it remains an unsolved puzzle in the annals of diplomacy — the kind where every theory sounds plausible, but the real reason stays locked behind closed doors in Washington.

Modi’s Gamble: Guarded, Not Goaded

In the theatre of global diplomacy, PM Modi is walking a fine line with U.S. President Donald Trump — a man known for blunt force and transactional politics. Despite Trump’s "unfair, unreasonable, and unjustified" trade rhetoric, New Delhi has pointedly refrained from retaliating with counter tariffs. This restraint isn't a weakness as the PM and his ministers are talking tough. It’s strategic calibration. Modi’s recent statement — “I am ready to pay a heavy personal price” — is a loaded one. It signals a willingness to withstand domestic criticism and short-term pain to secure long-term geopolitical gains. With Trump, Modi is quietly insulating India from future volatility. His outreach isn’t just government-to-government. It’s grassroots. Modi is carefully cultivating goodwill among Indian-Americans, tech CEOs, lawmakers, and thought leaders — building a constituency within the U.S. that transcends party lines and presidents.

Meanwhile, the RBI underscores India’s rising stature — contributing 18% to global growth compared to the U.S.’s 11%. Modi isn’t just asserting India’s economic role — he’s backing it with diplomatic weight. Invitations to President Putin, upcoming visits to China and Japan, Brazilian counterpart Lula da Silva callng Modi  — all while keeping the U.S. loop intact — show a leader not leaning on any one axis, but balancing many. This is not appeasement; it is avoidance of entanglement. Modi’s restraint with Trump, despite provocation, reveals a shrewd reading of power. He is betting that in the new world order, mature nations win by staying stable — not by swinging fists. And if that means he takes political bruises at home, so be it. In a world where Trump roars, Modi whispers — but every word is deliberate.

Amit Shah in Action, But Bihar Awaits Official Prabhari

The BJP’s long-tested poll playbook involves appointing a state Prabhari months before elections, ensuring the in-charge has time to stitch alliances, assess ground realities and iron out factional creases. Yet, in Bihar, the clock is ticking and no name has been announced for the crucial role—an unusual departure from tradition. Maharashtra's senior BJP leader Vinod Tawde is serving as Bihar in-charge as general secretary with MP Deepak Prakash as co-in-charge. But with Assembly elections looming in 2025, there is no Prabhari. The state unit’s new president, Dr. Dilip Kumar Jaiswal, is in place, and organisation secretary Bhikhubhai Dalsania is active, as is RSS Bihar-Jharkhand in-charge Nagendra. But the absence of a designated Prabhari has fuelled speculation.

Party insiders hint the delay is linked to larger organisational changes in the pipeline, possibly tied to the pending appointment of a new national president of the BJP. Meanwhile, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been making frequent trips—even thrice a month—functioning as the party’s undeclared Bihar strategist. The suspense serves as a political sub-plot in itself. In Bihar’s high-stakes political theater, the identity of the eventual Prabhari could shape the script for 2025.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Amit Shah’s Expanding Role Sparks Buzz

There’s no official anointment yet, but within the BJP, one man seems to be running the show — Amit Shah, Union Home Minister, is steadily emerging as the de facto party chief, if not more. Shah has been criss-crossing states, holding closed-door meetings with party leaders and allies, firming up seat arrangements, troubleshooting local flare-ups, and recalibrating electoral strategies. His recent whirlwind tours — more intense than even JP Nadda’s — haven’t gone unnoticed. Shah is seen presiding over high-level meetings not just of the BJP, but also of NDA partners, stitching together the 2025-26 road map with clinical precision.

What has truly set the Delhi grapevine abuzz, though, is his Rajya Sabha appearance during the debate on Operation Sindoor. With the Prime Minister opting out, it was widely expected that Defense Minister and senior-most Cabinet member Rajnath Singh would step up and reply to the debate. Instead, it was Shah who rose to the occasion, delivering a forceful reply and signaling, perhaps, more than just parliamentary muscle.

While Modi remains unquestionably at the centre of the BJP’s solar system, Shah’s ever-expanding orbit has political observers wondering: is this groundwork for a future beyond 2029? Is the party quietly grooming Shah to inherit the mantle, bypassing the traditional order of succession? Officially, the BJP maintains business as usual. But in the corridors of power, the writing on the wall is being scrutinized — and it’s Amit Shah’s name that keeps coming up, in bold.

BJP vs BJP: Rudy's Fortress Breached — Balyan Mounts Insider Coup

After ruling the roost for over 25 years, BJP MP Rajeev Pratap Rudy finds his long-held post of Secretary (Administration) at the Constitution Club under threat — not from the Opposition, but his own party man, Sanjeev Balyan. The upcoming August 12 election has turned into a fierce BJP vs BJP turf war. What was once considered Rudy’s unchallenged domain has now become the battleground for a political shake-up. Balyan, the rustic former MP from Muzaffarnagar, surprised many by jumping into the fray — and stunned Rudy’s camp by securing open backing from BJP’s top leadership. Ministers and MPs are actively canvassing for him, a clear signal that the Establishment wants Rudy unseated.

Though Rudy is credited with transforming the Club into a 5-star hangout — complete with gym, spa, lounges, and a sprawling library — his grip appears to be slipping. Efforts by his supporters to make Balyan withdraw have failed. The Constitution Club, a prestigious institution with 1,200 odd eligible voters, includes members like Modi, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and Kharge. Yet, it's this internal BJP feud that has caught everyone’s eye. Rudy, once seen as unshakable, now faces an uphill battle to retain relevance. The luxury spa may still buzz with political gossip and massages, but beneath the calm, a storm is brewing — and it's coming from within the BJP itself. His citadel is cracking. And this time, the enemy wears the same colours.

BJP-Akali Reunion Buzz In the Air

The Ludhiana bypoll may not have changed political equations overnight, but it has certainly revived talk of a possible reunion between the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) — two estranged allies still nursing old wounds but eyeing a common adversary: AAP. While the AAP retained the seat comfortably with 35,179 votes, what caught political watchers' attention was the combined vote share of the BJP (20,323) and the Akalis (8,203). Together, they polled 28,526 votes — not too far behind AAP, and significantly more than the Congress’s 24,542. Fueling the speculation further were Sukhbir Badal’s carefully worded remarks. Asked about a patch-up with the BJP, the SAD chief said: “We are not thinking along those lines. Any alliance must be based on principles — the rights of farmers, minorities, Bandi Singhs, our river waters, and our claim over Chandigarh.” He didn’t slam the door — just left it ajar.

The bitterness runs deep. The Akalis remain furious at what they see as the BJP’s moves to undermine Sikh institutions — notably, the party’s control over the Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee. The rupture over the farm laws still lingers. But politics makes for strange reconciliations. With the Akalis declining and the BJP lacking a strong Punjabi face, a cold calculation may outweigh warm memories or past grievances. For both, the real prize is 2027 — and if defeating AAP requires swallowing pride, neither side may be unwilling. For now, the silence speaks volumes. The past may not be forgiven — but it may be negotiated. Interestingly, during the special discussion on Operation Sindoor in Parliament, SAD MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal flayed the Opposition, saying there was an “urgent need” to end the escalating tension with Pakistan.

Odisha’s Raj Bhavan Gets Wheels and Warmth

With courts clipping the wings of activist governors in opposition-ruled states like Bengal and Kerala, their counterparts in BJP-ruled states seem to be stretching theirs—gently, and in perfect sync. Take Odisha’s Hari Babu Kambhampati, for instance. Not for him the Raj Bhavan recliner. The man’s on a mission—armed with spreadsheets, smiles, and a road map to visit all 30 districts in a year. Having tasted power under a BJP regime for the first time, Odisha is now seeing a ‘double-engine’ governance drive—with the Governor riding shotgun. Kambhampati is busy touring districts, checking on Central schemes like Jal Jeevan Mission, PM Awas Yojana, Mudra and Atal Pension Yojana, and even the newly minted Surya Ghar Muft Bijli scheme. He’s meeting babus, netas, NGOs, and beneficiaries to gauge who’s getting what and where the pipes (or promises) are leaking.

But the real curveball? The Governor’s unscheduled pit stops at Chief Minister Mohan Majhi and Deputy CM KV Singh Deo’s private homes. No Raj Bhavan summoning, no formal photo-ops—just casual drop-ins. Raj Bhavan insists these were mere “courtesy calls”, but in Lutyens-speak, that usually translates to: “Yes, we’re all on the same WhatsApp group.” As the guardians of federalism recalibrate post court rap, Odisha’s Raj Bhavan seems to be pioneering a softer, savvier avatar—part watchdog, part cheerleader. And if the optics are anything to go by, Governor Kambhampati might just be Odisha BJP’s most affable campaigner in disguise.