by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Modi’s Dream, Congress’s Nightmare

After the Bihar win, Narendra Modi confidently declared that the Congress “will split.” It wasn’t a casual post-poll boast. Ever since he arrived in Delhi in 2014, Modi has worked steadily to engineer a rupture in the Grand Old Party. Nearly 13 Congress Chief Ministers or senior satraps — including Ashok Chavan, Capt. Amarinder Singh, S.M. Krishna, Digambar Kamat, Pema Khandu, Narayan Rane, N. Biren Singh and Jagdambika Pal — crossed over to the BJP. At one point,  Ghulam Nabi Azad came perilously close to triggering an actual split, but the move fizzled out and he formed his own party. 

Today, the vulnerabilities are again visible. State leaders are restless after repeated defeats, and the old guard is frustrated with Rahul Gandhi’s personality-driven style and his heavy reliance on a tightly controlled “core political group.” Ironically, many members of Rahul’s original team — Jyotiraditya Scindia, R.P.N. Singh, Jitin Prasada, Sushmita Dev and others — have already defected. His current loyalists — Ajay Maken, Randeep Surjewala, Deepender Hooda, Sachin Pilot, Gaurav Gogoi, Bhupen Borah — have not been able to restore confidence inside the party.

The new “core” — Sachin Rao, Krishna Allavaru, Harshavardhan Sapkal, Meenakshi Natarajan and others — has failed to deliver. Rahul’s choices in states such as Ajay Rai (UP), Harshavardhan Sapkal (Maharashtra) and Sunny Joseph (Kerala) have left leaders wondering and sulking. The BJP’s calibrated mix of ED pressure and soft landings in saffron ranks keeps the cracks widening. Can the Congress really split now? The answer lies in arithmetic and optics. The BJP knows its post-2024 dip has narrowed the electoral gap, and a fractured Congress is the surest way to block any national challenge before 2029. Yet a formal split is not inevitable. That leaves Rahul Gandhi at a decisive crossroads. Unless he recalibrates the organization and shares real power, Modi’s prophecy may well become political reality.

The Lucky Elite

Governors and Lieutenant Governors typically serve five and three years respectively, at the President's pleasure—but in the Modi era, a select "lucky" few shatter these norms, racking up tenures far beyond convention through single stints or job-hopping across states.

Acharya Devvrat reigns supreme as the Modi administration's ironman Governor, clocking over a decade in office: Himachal Pradesh from August 2015 to July 2019, then Gujarat since July 22, 2019—now with Maharashtra's extra crown after C.P. Radhakrishnan's VP upgrade. Anandiben Patel's marathon run kicked off in Madhya Pradesh (January 2018), then Uttar Pradesh since July 29, 2019, hitting 5 years and 170 days plus as UP's longest-ever Governor. Arif Mohammed Khan (Kerala since September 6, 2019, now Bihar) and P.S. Sreedharan Pillai (Mizoram October 2019, now Goa) both top six years of unbroken power.

Mangubhai Chhaganbhai Patel grips Madhya Pradesh since July 8, 2021, leveraging his Gujarat Assembly Speaker cred for staying power. Lieutenant Governor stars shine bright too: Admiral (Retd.) Devendra Kumar Joshi rules Andaman & Nicobar for 6+ years; Praful Patel dominates Dadra & Nagar Haveli-Daman & Diu plus Lakshadweep for 8; Manoj Sinha just breached five years in Jammu & Kashmir; Ajay Bhalla helms Manipur with Nagaland's bonus portfolio. These super-tenured appointees bring to light a juicy Modi playbook twist: loyalty pays dividends in extended luxury gigs, defying tradition amid political chess.

A Sunday Budget? Govt’s Big February 1 Dilemma

The pre-Budget buzz has begun in North Block, but an unusual cloud hangs low over the 2026 Union Budget: will there even be a February 1 Budget this time? The date that has become a Narendra Modi–era ritual now poses a bureaucratic headache — because February 1, 2026, is a Sunday. Since Arun Jaitley rewrote Budget tradition in 2017, February 1 has been sacrosanct. But Parliament doesn’t sit on Sundays, government offices stay shut, and global markets are closed. Should the Finance Minister walk into Parliament on a locked-down Sunday — or push the Budget to February 2?

Adding a twist, Guru Ravidas Jayanti also falls on February 1, but the Centre has notified it as a restricted holiday, meaning offices can remain open. So the religious-calendar hurdle is minor. The real question is: will the Modi government break its own February 1 streak?

The Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs is expected to announce the Budget Session schedule in early January. Bureaucrats whisper that either North Block or Parliamentary Affairs may soon step in with a clarification. History suggests the government could brazen it out. Budgets have been presented on Saturdays — even on a Sunday in 1999. But with no official word yet, Delhi’s power corridors are abuzz: Is India heading for its first Sunday Budget in the Modi era — or a rare date shift?

Akhilesh Yadav’s Big Moment

The Mahagathbandhan may have lost Bihar and Rahul Gandhi may have been facing the wrath of the INDIA bloc parties once again. But in contrast, the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is drawing unusually positive attention as Akhilesh campaigned in helicopters across the state for many days though SP was not given a single seat in Bihar. His role in keeping the INDIA bloc together is also being appreciated. Even in Haryana, the Congress did not give any seat to SP and yet Akhilesh, unlike the Aam Aadmi Party, did not put up candidates to weaken the Congress.
It is learnt that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin wants Akhilesh to campaign in Tamil Nadu for the “secular-progressive alliance although the Yadav community is not influential there —as in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

The Great Corporate Cleanse at massive Rs 7.7 lakh crores  cost, 

Bad Loans Vanish + massive incentives 

In just five years, if India’s public sector banks have wiped out Rs 3,18,324 crore of toxic loans belonging to large industries off their books, the corporates quietly pocketed another Rs. 4,53,329 crores in tax incentives – a staggering combined bonanza of over Rs 7.7 lakh crore.

According to official data available, the peak of the write-off was in 2020-21 when banks written off a jaw-dropping Rs 90,641 crore in a single year. Year after year, this is happening, Rs 57,541 crore (2021-22), Rs 72,108 crore (2022-23), Rs 58,359 crore (2023-24). Even during the financial year 2024-25, Rs 39,675 crore (provisional) has disappeared from balance sheets.

The Government insists these are mere “technical write-offs” – not waivers. Borrowers remain liable, and banks continue chasing dues through courts, SARFAESI, and IBC. Yet, the data shows that in the best year so far (2024-25), banks managed to recover only 46.64% of the amount written off during that very year. In 2020-21, the recovery rate dropped to a dismal 18.58%, 

Meanwhile, corporate tax breaks flowed like clockwork. Rs 94,110 crore (2019-20), Rs. 75,218 crore (2020-21), Rs 96,892 crore (2021-22), Rs 88,109 crore (2022-23), and a fresh high of 98,999 crore in 2023-24, almost 1 lakh crore in a single year handed back to corporate through various deductions and exemptions.

The Ministry of Finance points to brighter spots, gross NPAs of public sector banks have crashed from 9.11% in March 2021 to a provisional 2.58% in March 2025, and fresh bad loans are at a record low. But the sheer scale of loans vanishing from books, coupled with near Rs 1 lakh crore annual tax gifts, has reignited questions about who ultimately pays the price when large borrowers default in thousands of crores while small farmers and home-loan borrowers face attachment orders for defaults running into lakhs.

The Ministry says write-offs do not benefit the borrower, however, the numbers, , tell a different story on the ground.

Loans written-off by Public Sector Banks
Year	Amount *
2020-21	90,641
2021-22	57,541
2022-23	72,108
2023-24	58,359
2024-25#	39,675
* Amounts in crore Rs.
# Provisional

Major Tax Incentives for Corporate Taxpayers
Year	Amount*
2019-20	94,109.83
2020-21	75,218.02
2021-22	96,892.39
2022-23	88,109.27
2023-24	98,999.57
* Amounts in crore Rs.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

The Importance of being Shashi Tharoor

The BJP’s Kerala project has long lacked a catalytic figure—someone with popular appeal, administrative credibility, and cross-community acceptance. In Assam, that role was played by Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose defection from the Congress not only transformed the BJP’s electoral fortunes but also reconfigured the political landscape of the entire Northeast. Increasingly, BJP strategists wonder: Could Shashi Tharoor play a similar role in Kerala?

The question gains traction as the BJP’s Kerala graph shows unmistakable upward movement. From 11.40% in the 2021 Assembly polls to a combined NDA vote share of 19.24% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—and a historic win in Thrissur—the party has moved from symbolic presence to meaningful foothold. It emerged a strong second in Thiruvananthapuram with 37.12%, posted impressive numbers in seven seats. With Rajeev Chandrasekhar taking charge as state president in 2025, the party is readying for the next leap. 

This is where Tharoor fits in. Among Kerala’s youth and women, his popularity rivals, and often exceeds, that of local political heavyweights. Unlike most Congress leaders, his appeal cuts across religion and class lines, especially in urban constituencies and among first-time voters. If Sarma gave the BJP ideological flexibility and administrative muscle in Assam, Tharoor could provide intellectual legitimacy, cosmopolitan appeal, and cross-community access in Kerala—a state where cultural sophistication matters as much as political messaging.

For the BJP, Tharoor represents more than a high-profile defection; he is the potential “Assam moment” for Kerala.  And with the state heading into December panchayat polls—where the BJP currently controls just 1,550 of 65,000 panchayats—the party is desperate for a transformative figure. The parallels with Sarma are not perfect—but the political possibilities are too powerful to ignore.

New BJP Chief in the New Year !

When Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the BJP would elect its new national president after the Bihar polls, it was widely assumed the transition would be wrapped up before year-end. That timeline has quietly slipped, so it seems. The party is now working on its own slow, methodical schedule, and the election may take place only in January 2026. Organizational elections in 29 states have already been completed, with UP, Karnataka and a couple of others still pending. These remaining units will be wrapped up in the next four to six weeks, clearing the deck for the national election.

Complicating the calendar is the month-long Kharmas—an inauspicious period from December 14, during which no major appointments are made. As a result, the new president can only be elected after January 14 but before the Budget Session begins January end. The BJP high command is keen not to push the exercise any further. Several names are in circulation for the top post like Dharmendra Pradhan, Bhupender Yadav, Manohar Lal Khattar, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. But a strong argument is being made that if the BJP wants deeper traction among Dalit voters, the time has come to elevate a leader from the community. In this context, UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya is being viewed as a serious contender. The first person from the Dalit community to serve as party president was Bangaru Laxman and he had to quit unceremoniously. Therefore, the BJP may make an attempt after 25 years.

Bhagwat Steps In to Repair BJP's Dalit Connect

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has quietly taken charge of the BJP’s Dalit outreach after the party’s setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For months, Sangh insiders say Bhagwat had been signaling the need to “win back Dalit confidence” and hands-on intervention. Bhagwat spent five days in Varanasi recently, PM Modi’s constituency. He traveled to a Kabir ashram in Lakhimpur, held closed-door interactions with Dalit followers, and met local leaders who have been warning the Sangh about growing alienation among marginalized communities.

At a broader level, Bhagwat has matched visits with pointed speeches, urging Hindu society to rise above caste divisions. He has promoted collective celebration of festivals like Valmiki Jayanti, Ravidas Jayanti, and called for inclusivity in public places—temples, water wells, and crematoriums—often dominated by higher castes. Bhagwat’s annual Vijayadashami address in 2024 emphasized friendship across caste lines. The RSS runs several dedicated programs under its affiliate, Samajik Samrasta Manch, which focus on Dalit empowerment through education, healthcare, and vocational training. Initiatives such as inter-caste meals (Samajik Samrasta Bhoj).

Bhagwat has now issued firm instructions to RSS pracharaks: conduct dedicated outreach camps in Dalit-dominated districts, engage with community leaders. The Sangh is also mapping constituencies where Dalit disenchantment hurt the BJP most, especially in UP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Bhagwat’s intervention is being read within the BJP as a clear message—Dalit consolidation cannot be taken for granted, and the road to 2029 in Parliament will require course correction, not complacency.

MHA Faces Its Own Command Crisis After SC Blow

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) faces renewed pressure to implement long-pending cadre reforms in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) after the Supreme Court rejected its review plea on the contentious issue of IPS deputations. The SC dismissed the MHA’s petition challenging the May 23 verdict that ordered the Centre to complete cadre reviews in all CAPFs—CRPF, BSF, CISF, ITBP, and SSB—within six months. The court said no case was made for reconsideration and refused to grant an open hearing.

The earlier ruling had directed a gradual reduction in IPS deputation posts within two years, citing stagnation and morale issues among CAPF cadre officers who serve under “demanding conditions.” The court also asked the Department of Personnel and Training to act within three months of receiving MHA’s compliance report. With the review plea dismissed, the MHA must now walk a political and administrative tightrope—between IPS dominance and the CAPF cadre’s growing demand for upward mobility. Insiders say Home Minister Amit Shah is not the one to take things lying down and may try to find a way to overcome the SC setback.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Fly on the wall

Harish Gupta 

Why India Won’t Name Pakistan or JeM — Yet

The Red Fort blast has triggered outrage, high-level meetings and an all-agency dragnet. Yet one element stands out: the government’s unusual silence on Pakistan and Jaish-e-Mohammad — even though recent investigations in Srinagar, including the emergence of the “white coat” module and appearance of JeM posters, have clearly indicated the group’s renewed activity.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking in Bhutan, called the blast a “conspiracy” and promised that “conspirators will not be spared”. Union Home Minister Amit Shah warned that the culprits would face the “full wrath” of agencies. But India has not named JeM, Pakistan, or cross-border handlers — a striking contrast to the last terror incident in April in Pahalgam. The Pak & JeM links were clearly established in Pahalgam that led to Operation Sindoor.

This raises a few important questions. If JeM networks are resurfacing in Kashmir, why is the Centre avoiding explicit attribution? Are investigators seeing something more complex — perhaps a hybrid module, a cut-out, or a domestic link that requires caution? Or is New Delhi waiting to avoid the diplomatic blow back of a premature accusation?

Officials point to three reasons. First, the government wants a single, airtight evidentiary chain before making a public attribution — especially after past instances where early naming complicated investigations. Second, India’s diplomatic posture now leans on evidence-heavy claims to strengthen its case in FATF and global counter-terror forums. Third, a premature charge would give Islamabad an opportunity to dismiss the blast as “politicized”.  Additionally, the Turkey angle has also surfaced for the first time in the "white coat" terror act. 

The message is deliberate: proceed with facts, not assumptions. The calibrated silence suggests the government wants the investigation to speak first — and speak decisively — before Delhi escalates the matter to a geopolitical stage.

Why did the police fail to track Dr Umar Nabi ?

The probe agencies are saying that the mastermind of the Red Fort blast Dr Umar Nabi panicked and the blast in his car took place at Red Fort by accident. But there are many lurking questions as to why the toll plazas in Haryana were not alerted by the J&K and Haryana Police on November 8-9 night when Al Falah University premises were raided together to catch the doctors involved in the conspiracy.

Accepted that Dr Umar Nabi's name was revealed on November 9 by Dr Muzammil Ganai and search began for him. But Dr Umar had fled on October 30 itself from the Al-Falah institute. He knew Dr Ganai could spill the beans of his involvement in the module soon. He hid at nearby Nuh city in a rented accommodation for more than ten days along with his car. But toll plazas across Haryana were not alerted to check all outbound vehicles immediately. Umar's i20 car was spotted at a toll plaza on November 9 midnight on the way to enter Delhi.

There was no alert in Delhi about Dr Umar or his car HR 26 throughout November 9-10. There were other lapses too. But India was lucky enough that this “Doctors-Terror” module was exposed in time by a senior Cop who himself had earned a degree in medicine in 2010 but chose to become a cop, cleared UPSC exams and later posted in Srinagar as SSP in 2025. Nowgam police station fell under his jurisdiction when JeM posters appeared on Oct 18. Dr GV Sundeep Chakravarthy, SSP did not dismiss them as a routine act of misguided youths and probe ordered. What started on October 18 in the Kashmir Valley, with posters of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), ended on November 10, with a blast near Delhi’s Red Fort. Rest is history.

SMART Policing on Paper, Failures on Ground

It's a classic case as to how the absence of Smart Police Stations let suspects slip. Nearly ten years after the Prime Minister coined the term “SMART Policing”, India still does not have a single operational Smart Police Station. The gap between projections and preparedness is now unmissable — and costly. Investigators admit that Dr Umar, a key suspect in the terror chain, could have been intercepted at a Haryana check post had even the most basic smart policing features been in place: automated ID verification, integrated criminal databases, vehicle flagging, or real-time alert syncing with NCRP.

Instead, India’s check posts are still manual, paper-driven, and disconnected from national grids. Haryana is not an exception — no state has built a station that meets the promised SMART standards: seamless digital workflows, behavioural analytics, cyber-linked command centres, or AI-assisted suspect tracing.

The government lists dozens of initiatives — ASUMP upgrades, CyTrain courses, cyber-forensic labs in 33 states, JCCT teams, and weekly peer-learning sessions. But these remain parallel cyber improvements, not replacements for outdated police station architecture. Without integrated data pipelines, real-time tracking, or automated red-flag mechanisms, suspects in crimes and terror activities will continue to move across districts without leaving a digital footprint.

A decade of “SMART policing” has produced impressive presentations — but not the smart police stations that could have altered the outcome of these investigations.

by Harish Gupta, National Editor, Lokmat Group

Delhi's New Nightmare,

Why security agencies are in a tizzy 

Dr Umar: 3rd suicide bomber  

Harish Gupta

The November 10 attack at Delhi's Red Fort has shaken the security and intelligence agencies. Though a major catastrophe was averted as "Doctor-Terror network" had planned many explosions on December 6, the shoe suicide bomber, Dr Umar Nabi has made agencies extremely worried.

It is not that the suicide bombers have not operated in the country before.The first such known incident took place in Pulwama  (J&K)  in 2019 when a van-borne bomb rammed a military convoy killing 40 soldiers. Three years later, a car filled with potassium nitrate etc. exploded in Tamil Nadu's Coimbatore in October 2022, killing only the driver. He was later identified as Jameesha Mubin, a self-styled operative of the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) probed it and 75 kg of potassium nitrate, aluminum powder, sulfur, etc. was recovered from Mobin's house. The matter ended there.

Now three years later, in November 2025 - ammonium nitrate fuel oil stuffed into the back of a Hyundai i20 detonated atRed Fort. A new weapon - Vehicular-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIEDs) - car bombs, a most dangerous mass-casualty form was fitted by the bomber in his shoe. The suicide bomber Dr Umar had even recorded a video before the incident. The probe has revealed that Dr Umar was not the lone wolf and was part of a core group of 10-12 persons.

The agencies are perplexed that this group was operating for almost two years and no one could even smell anything anywhere. No doubt, this module operated at the instance of Pak-based terror group Jaish-e-Mohammed which also operates from Madrassas and Maulvis. Several Islamic clerics from Haryana, UP to J&K were radicalizing them. The security apparatus is worried about this urban radicalized group operating quietly with the silent support of some community members too.